한국정치/북한_DPRK2019. 10. 23. 20:35


김정은이 이설주와 금강산을 방문해서, 현대아산 투자 사업에 대해 혹평한 이유는 간단하다. 금강산 관광사업은  UN 제재 대상도 아닌데, 문재인 정부가 너무 미국 눈치를 보고 있다고 판단했다. 


따라서 김정은 정부는 한국의  적극적인 투자를 촉구하기 위해, 아버지 김정일과 한국 현대 아산의 계약 자체까지 비판하면서, 금강산 개발 투자를 한국 뿐만 아니라 대외에 촉구한 것이다.


또한, 김정은 정부의 최근 외교 노선을 고려했을 때, 금강산 개발권을 중국, 러시아 등 다른 나라 회사들과 북한과 협작을 할 가능성도 있다. 





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북 김정은 “싹 들어내라” 금강산 남쪽 시설 철거 지시


등록 :2019-10-23 08:38수정 :2019-10-23 11:34

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김 위원장 금강산관광지구 현지지도 <노동신문> 보도

“남에게 의존 선임자들 의존정책 매우 잘못” 강력 비판

남북관계 파국이냐 극적 반전이냐 중대 고빗길

철거 지시하며 “남측과 합의” 단서…남북 협의 이뤄질까


김정은 북한 국무위원장이 금강산관광지구를 찾아 “너절한 남측시설들을 싹들어내도록 하고 금강산의 자연경관에 어울리는 현대적인 봉사시설들을 우리식으로 새로 건설하여야 한다”고 지시했다고 23일 <노동신문>이 1면에 보도했다.


이미 고인이 된 김정일 국방위원장과 정주영 현대그룹 명예회장이 합의해 1998년 11월 시작된 금강산관광의 기반인 남쪽 시설의 철거를 지시한 것이다. 하노이 북-미 정상회담 합의 무산 이후 악화일로인 남북관계가 중대 고빗길에 들어섰다.


김 위원장은 “금강산에 대한 관광사업을 남측을 내세워 하는 일은 바람직하지 않다”며 “당중앙위원회 해당 부서에서 금강산관광지구의 부지를 망탕 떼여주고 문화관광지에 대한 관리를 외면하여 경관에 손해를 준데 대하여 엄하게 지적하시였다”고 <노동신문>은 전했다.


다만 김 위원장은 금강산관광광지구 남쪽 시설을 철거하면서도 “남측 관계 부문과 합의하여”라고 단서를 달았다. 당장은 일방적으로 철거에 나서지는 않겠다는 뜻이다. 북쪽이 김 위원장의 지시에 따라 남북 협의에 나설 경우, 그 논의 결과에 따라 남북관계가 파국이냐 극적 반전이냐는 전혀 다른 행로에 접어들게 된다.


금강산관광사업과 관련해선 현대아산이 50년 독점사업권을 확보하고 있는데, 북쪽은 2008년 7월 금강산관광의 장기 중단 원인이 된 관광객 박왕자씨 피살 사건에 따른 남북갈등 때 남쪽 시설의 몰수와 동결을 선언한 바 있다. 


남쪽이 건설·운영하던 남쪽 시설에 대한 권리 주체 문제를 두고 남북 갈등이 빚어질 수밖에 없는 상황이다.


김 위원장의 금강산관광지구 현지지도에는 대남정책을 총괄하는 장금철 통일전선부장, 대미협상을 총괄하는 최선희 외무성 제1부상이 동행했다. 김 위원장의 이번 지시에 대남·대미 전략에 대한 고려가 깔려 있음을 알 수 있다. 


금강산관광사업 자체는 유엔과 미국의 대북제재 대상이 아니다. 


따라서 장기 중단 상황인 금강산관광지구 남쪽 시설물 철거 지시는 북-미 정상회담 합의 사항 위반이 아니고 미국과 유엔 제재와도 직접 관련이 없다. 


반면 김 위원장이 문재인 대통령과 “조건이 마련되는 데 따라 개성공단과 금강산관광 사업을 우선 정상화”하기로 약속한 ’9월 평양공동선언’ 정신에 정면으로 배치된다. 


김 위원장의 이번 지시엔, 북-미 관계에 직접 영향을 주지 않으면서도 남북관계를 흔들어 장기교착 국면을 타개하려는 속내가 깔려 있을 수 있다.



김 위원장은 “손쉽게 관광지나 내여주고 앉아서 득을 보려고 했던 선임자들의 잘못된 정책”을 거론하고는, “국력이 여릴 적에 남에게 의존하려 했던 선임자들의 의존 정책이 매우 잘못되었다”고 강하게 비판했다. 


금강산관광사업이 김 위원장의 아버지인 김정일 국방위원장이 정주영 현대 명예회장과 만나 결정한 사업임을 고려할 때, 사실상 김정일 국방위원장의 금강산관광 정책에 대한 공개 비판인 셈이다. 


‘수령의 무오류성’과 유일지도체계를 강조해온 북쪽 정치체제의 속성에 비춰, 속내를 가늠하기 쉽지 않은 언급이다.


김 위원장은 “금강산에 고성항해안관광지구, 비로봉등산관광지구, 해금강해안공원지구, 체육문화지구를 꾸리며 이에 따른 금강산관광지구총개발계획을 먼저 작성 심의하고 3~4단계로 갈라 년차별로 단계별로 건설하여야 한다“고 지시했다. 


이어 “금강산관광지구 일대를 금강산과 원산갈마해안관광지구, 마식령스키장이 하나로 연결된 문화관광지구로 세계적인 명승지답게 잘 꾸려야 한다”고 강조했다.


이제훈 선임기자 nomad@hani.co.kr



원문보기:http://www.hani.co.kr/arti/politics/defense/914236.html?_fr=mt2#csidxfbc35842314db7da8b9d6bb58775ebb


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한국정치/북한_DPRK2019. 10. 14. 21:48

남북한 축구 축제로 이어지지 못해 안타깝다. 한국 붉은 악마와 축구팬들이 북한 평양 김일성 종합경기장에서 응원할 수 있도록 남북한 정부가 협조했어야 했다. 


김정은 평양 정부가 한국과 북한 축구 경기 중계방송을 허용하지 않았다. 한국 응원단 입국도 전혀 협조하지 않았다. 평양정부가 문재인 정부에 대한 불만을 노골적으로 표현한 것이다. 그러나 축구는 민간 시민사회 교류 차원에서, 정치적 관계와는 조금 거리를 둬야 한다. 이런 맥락에서 볼때, 이번 김정은 평양정부의 축구중계 불허는 굉장히 안타깝고 비참한 결정이다.


미국 트럼프와 북한 김정은은 정상 회담 재개를 통해 공식적인 외교 관계를 수립할 신뢰를 형성해야 한다. 상대방을 정치적으로 이용하려는 외교와 보여주기식 정상회담은 이제 우리에게 전혀 도움이 되지 않는다.


문재인 정부도 독자적인 대북정책, 대미 정책을 구사하지 않으면, 북한과의 외교 관계에서 실리를 취하기 힘들다. 



The upcoming Fifa 2022 World Cup Qualifier between South Korea and North Korea in Pyongyang will not be screened live, it has been confirmed by South Korean broadcasters.


A joint statement on Monday from South Korea’s biggest terrestrial television broadcasters KBS, MBC and SBS announced that the fears the game would not be beamed from the capital of their northern neighbours were accurate.


KBS reported on their website that the three broadcasters had not received a response from Pyongyang until Monday, a day before the first meeting between the men’s national teams in North Korea since 1990.


The report also confirmed that no South Korean reporters were permitted to travel to the North Korean capital.



The upcoming Fifa 2022 World Cup Qualifier between South Korea and North Korea in Pyongyang will not be screened live, it has been confirmed by South Korean broadcasters.


A joint statement on Monday from South Korea’s biggest terrestrial television broadcasters KBS, MBC and SBS announced that the fears the game would not be beamed from the capital of their northern neighbours were accurate.


KBS reported on their website that the three broadcasters had not received a response from Pyongyang until Monday, a day before the first meeting between the men’s national teams in North Korea since 1990.


The report also confirmed that no South Korean reporters were permitted to travel to the North Korean capital.


Steve Han • 한만성

@realstevescores

It’s official now. The second round Asian qualifying match for the 2022 World Cup in Pyongyang between North Korea and South Korea will NOT be broadcasted live, according to a joint-statement released by KBS, MBC and SBS, South Korea’s three major terrestrial TV networks.




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South Korean players and staff were to travel to their northern neighbour via Beijing after being refused their request to travel direct.

While there will be no away fans at the 50,000 capacity Kim Il-sung Stadium, the Seoul-based English language newspaper Korea Times reports that local fans are willing to pay to see South Korean stars Son Heung-min and Lee Kang-in.


Tickets from touts were said to cost US$6, the equivalent to buying 10 kilograms of rice, according to Korea Times.

It was unclear whether foreign tourists or diplomats would be allowed to purchase tickets for the game, or if rumours were true that it will be played behind closed doors.

Neither Fifa nor the AFC had made a statement on the situation. It is not unusual for games played in North Korea involving foreign opponents to not be broadcast live overseas.


While the men’s team have not played in Pyongyang since their 1990 friendly match, South Korea’s women played there in 2017.

The two countries competed under a unified flag for a number of events at the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. It had also been reported that Seoul and Pyongyang are considering a joint bid for the 2032 Summer Games.

Earlier this month South Korean president Moon Jae-in told the public to back the proposal, after receiving support from IOC president Thomas Bach.



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정책비교/국제정치2019. 10. 11. 18:12

트럼프와 김정은의 협상이 진척되지 못한 탓으로, 그들은 노벨 평화상을 수상하지 못한 것으로 보인다.

분발해서 성과를 내오기 바란다.





에티오피아 수상 아비 아메드가 2019년 노벨 평화상을 수상했다. 


수상 이유는 아비 아메드 수상이 지난 20년간 에티오피아와 에리트리아간의 군사적 대치상황을 타개했기 때문이다.


아비 아메드는 100번째 노벨 평화상 수상자가 되었다.


223명 개인 후보와 78개 단체가 이번 노벨 평화상 후보에 올랐다.





The 2019 Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

He was awarded the prize for his efforts to "achieve peace and international cooperation".

A peace deal, signed last year, ended a nearly 20-year military stalemate with Eritrea following the 1998-2000 border war.

He was named as the winner of the 100th Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo.

A total of 301 candidates had been nominated for the prestigious award, including 223 individuals and 78 organisations.

There had been great speculation over who would win the prize. Under the Nobel Foundation's rules, nomination shortlists are not allowed to be published for 50 years.


https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/nobel-peace-prize-2019-winner-dle-scli-intl/index.html



에티오피아 아비 아메드 수상과 에리트리아 대통령 이샤아 아프베키 



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정책비교/국제정치2019. 3. 2. 01:22



1. 이번 하노이 북미 회담 결과가 지지부진했던 이유는, 트럼프가 북미협상 타결을 다음 기회에 더 크게 써먹기 위해 아껴둔 것이 아니라, 내 생각에는 북한과 미국, 특히 미국 측 협상 팀이 준비를 철저하게 하지 못했다고 본다.


하노이 북미 정상 공동선언문은 이미 어느정도 작성이 되어 있었다. 그런데 막상 하노이 협상장에서, 트럼프 폼페오 존 볼튼 등이 김혁철-비건 (Biegun)협상팀이 만든 초안보다 더 많은 양보를 북한 김정은에게 요구했다. 


이것을 어떻게 해석할 것인가 ?  외교 관례를 깬 트럼프의 위용과 위대한 전술이라고 봐야 하는가? 그렇지 않다. 북한과 마찬가지로 미국 트럼프도 김정은과의 정상회담들을 통해서 적은 것이라도 성과를 내야 하는 처지에 있기 때문에, 둘 다 빈손으로 돌아간 것은 외교적 실패라고 볼 수 있다. 


아래 CNN 스테펀 콜린슨의 분석은 트럼프 외교의 문제점을 지적한 것인데, 시의성이 있다고 본다. 


2. 기사 요약 및 해설


CNN 스테펀 콜린슨이 트럼프의 국제 외교 협상능력을 비판했다. 한마디로 맨하탄 부동산 회장일 때 트럼프가 해왔던 '협상' 방식은 국가간 이익들이 걸린 국제 외교에서는 통하지 않을 수 있다는 것이다.


그리고 트럼프가 '논리'보다는 '본능'과 '감각'에 의존해 다른 나라들과 협상 (중국, 북한 등)하는 것이 문제가 있다고 지적했다.  한국계 조셉 윤도 이번 하노이 북미 회담 '협상'이 결렬된 이유로, 미국의 '준비 부족'을 지적했다. 


비지니스 세계에서 '최고 협상가'를 자처한 트럼프가 정치 세계에서는 오히려 그게 '심리적 부담' (albatross)이 될 수 있다. 이번 하노이 북미회담에서 트럼프는 전임 대통령들이 전혀 하지 못했던 일들을 해냈겠다고 했지만, 북한의 김정은은 그 예상보다 완강했다. 


트럼프는 김정은과 개인적인 친분과 사랑을 드러냈지만, 국가 이익들을 배분하는 외교협상에서는 그런 개인적인 화학작용은 한계가 있다고 지적했다. 


트럼프가 마치 부동산 거래에서 '적은 문제 (hiccup 딸꾹질)'로 인해 협상이 조금 지연되고 있는 것처럼, 이번 북한과 미국 사이 '교착' 국면을 트럼프 자기만의 협상 전술이라고 보고 있다. 그러면서 "sometimes, you have to walk 때론 협상에서 나와 버릴 필요가 있다"고 했다. 


사례 2. 미국 민주당과의 협상 실패. 멕시코와 미국 국경 사이 벽 설치 비용은 200억 달러가 든다. 민주당과 트럼프 사이 협상이 실패했다. 


사례 3. 중국과의 무역 전쟁 역시 썩 성공적이지 못하다. 중국 제품에 2000억 달러 관세를 부과한다고 엄포 놓은 이후에 한발짝 물러나 시진핑을 플로리다 자기 별장으로 다시 초대해서 미중 무역전쟁을 해결하려고 하고 있다. 

  

Trump's presidency turns into the art of the no deal

Stephen Collinson -Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN


Updated 9:42 AM ET, Fri March 1, 2019


How the Hanoi summit unraveled



(CNN)Donald Trump's art of the deal persona sold books like wildfire, anchored a blockbuster TV reality show and proved a potent theme for a White House run.


But it's beginning to look a house of cards on which to build a presidency.


It's not just that Trump -- fresh from a collapsed summit with North Korea's Kim Jong Un, a loss to Democrats over his border wall and a set of underwhelming new trade deals -- is not living up to his own billing.


The strategy of presenting Trump as a consummate dealmaker is becoming an albatross for the President, partly because he is operating in a domestic and international environment where there are few low-hanging deals on offer.


Democrats, with their new House majority, have little incentive to conclude joint projects that make the President look good as he seeks re-election.



And an increasingly unstable global geopolitical environment, characterized by power grabs by rising developing nations such as China and resurgent giants such as Russia, is challenging US leverage more than at any time since World War II.

Trump's disappointments dim the mystique central to his political appeal as an instinctive deal maker who can get his way through bluffing, charm and lightning business reflexes. The narrative built on the President as the master artist of the deal also threatens to keep lining him up for failure at an already fraught political moment and is creating an opening for potential 2020 opponents.


"The President treats everything like a real estate deal," former Vice President Joe Biden said in Nebraska on Thursday. " 'Just let me in the room. I can convince the other party to make a deal.' Well, it requires hard, hard, hard and consistent diplomacy."

In fact, Trump has shown more proficiency in breaking deals than making them after pulling the US out of the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris global climate pact and abandoning the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a massive multilateral trade deal.


A failure for 'reality show' diplomacy



North Korea's refusal to make concessions at the summit was especially disappointing for Trump since he had done so much to build it up, and with deepening political and legal crises back home he badly needed a win.


In the days before he met Kim, Trump predicted that the talks would be "very productive" and said on Twitter that his tyrannical friend should take advantage of the "AWESOME" economic incentives for denuclearizing.


The White House had originally scheduled a signing ceremony for after the meeting at a Hanoi hotel, raising expectations that a deal was imminent after talk over the last week of some kind of peace pact.


Before he went to Hanoi, Trump defended his approach.


"So funny to watch people who have failed for years, they got NOTHING, telling me how to negotiate with North Korea. But thanks anyway," Trump tweeted.


CNN's Kevin Liptak reported that top aides had told Trump a deal was tough to reach in Hanoi, but the President had harbored hopes that he could turn the tables. He was dismayed to find that the North Korean leader was so inflexible.


Had Trump been more aware of the tortuous history of US-North Korea negotiations, he might have concluded that Kim was behaving exactly to type.


As with other high-stakes situations during his presidency, Trump has seemed to believe his own propaganda, entering the talks convinced of his capacity to forge a deal.


For all the chummy letters he and Kim exchanged, it was a lesson that when the vital national interests of two nations clash, good personal chemistry goes only so far.


Trump's failure raises the question of whether an off-the-cuff approach, in which powerful figures huddle to thrash out a deal, is as effective in international diplomacy as it was in the Manhattan real estate game.




Kim, according to the US side, was willing to take only limited steps to dispose of his nuclear arsenal in return for a full lifting of sanctions. The North Koreans maintained they would accept a partial easing of the trade embargo in return for dismantling a key nuclear facility.


Pyongyang's tactics appeared to back up recent assessments by US intelligence agencies, which infuriated Trump, that the North would never renounce nuclear weapons completely because its leaders see them as a guarantee of regime survival.

Trump portrayed the impasse as part of a negotiating tactic, as if it were a hiccup in a real estate transaction.


"Sometimes, you have to walk," Trump told reporters in Vietnam.

Many Republicans and North Korea analysts were actually relieved, having worried that Trump might make a huge concession in his zeal for a deal, and praised him for walking away.


Democrats pounced anyway, pointing out that Trump had now invested presidential prestige in two summits with Kim and achieved little.


"What we saw in Hanoi was amateur hour with nuclear weapons at stake and the limits of reality TV diplomacy," said Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey on CNN's "Newsroom."


A thin resume on presidential deal making


Play Video


Anderson Cooper: Trump failed as a dealmaker 03:32


Trump presented himself during his election campaign in 2016 as the man to fix Washington after a lifetime of pounding rivals in the boardroom.


"I have made billions of dollars in business making deals. Now I'm going to make our country rich again," Trump said at the Republican National Convention.


Yet those mythical skills did not convince Mexico to pay for the border wall, as Trump promised at every rally. The President's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is meanwhile preparing to unveil what Trump has called "the deal of the century" to forge Middle East peace -- though most analysts believe it is dead on arrival.


And the President was comprehensively out-negotiated by Democrats using their new House majority in a government shutdown over border wall funding.


That clash revealed a flaw in the use of the deal-maker profile as an organizing principle. It was not that Trump could not get a deal -- but he found that accepting a give and take agreement with Democrats was politically untenable.


In 2018, Trump was considering a proposal that could have seen him get more than $20 billion in wall funding in return for a path to citizenship for "Dreamers" -- undocumented migrants brought to the US illegally as kids.


But because he anchored his viability as President on a minority of Americans for whom a hardline immigration policy is an almost existential issue, he had no political room to make the deal.


Months later, after the damaging shutdown drama, Trump has had to resort to a controversial national emergency declaration to try to fund his wall.


He has done a little better on trade, after renegotiated deals involving the US, Canada and Mexico and South Korea.

But his claims of huge new breakthroughs have been difficult to square with the results of negotiations that have reshaped trade deals rather than revolutionized them.


Last year, Trump proclaimed a "very big day" for free and fair trade after stepping back from a tariff war with Europe.

But the "deal" in question was mostly an undertaking to talk about working toward zero tariffs, and no permanent agreement has yet been reached.


China pact could offer redemption for Trump the deal maker


Play Video


Trump boasts about trade relationship with China 01:03


Trump's deal-making skills will next be tested in the endgame of long-running negotiations with China.

He and Chinese President Xi Jinping are under fierce domestic political pressure to drive a hard bargain. The President plans to host Xi at a summit at his Florida resort after he backed away from plans to impose tariffs this week on $200 billion in Chinese goods, citing "substantial progress."


Washington is seeking far-reaching reforms of the Chinese economy -- including to state industry subsidies -- plus it wants to halt cyber-thefts of US secrets and hopes to get new protections for US intellectual property.


It would not be an exaggeration to say a deal along these lines would be one agreement that would match Trump's hyperbolic claims of success.


Some Democrats and even some Republicans fear that Trump may be so desperate for a deal that he might be bought off with limited Chinese promises to tackle the trade deficit and to buy more US agricultural products from electorally key states that have been hit by the trade skirmishes.


It's not clear how Trump's unsuccessful opening to North Korea this week will play into the China deal. On the one hand, it could give Beijing's negotiators extra leverage since the President could be even more keen to strike an agreement that will validate his deal making prowess.


But Trump's willingness to walk away from the table with Kim could build his credibility if he threatens to take a similar approach with China.


CNN's Arlette Saenz and Annie Grayer contributed to this report.



























Posted by NJ원시

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  1. 사설] 충격적인 북-미 회담 결렬, 정부가 나서 ‘불씨’ 살려야
    등록 :2019-02-28 21:12수정 :2019-02-28 22:17
    페이스북트위터공유스크랩프린트크게 작게
    ‘비핵화-상응조처’ 조합 못 찾아 실패
    협상 판 깨지지 않은 건 불행 중 다행
    정부 ‘중재력’ 발휘에 모든 힘 쏟아야
    도널드 트럼프(오른쪽) 미국 대통령과 김정은 북한 국무위원장이 28일(현지시간) 1대1 단독 정상회담을 마치고 베트남 하노이의 소피텔 레전드 메트로폴 호텔 정원에서 나란히 걷고 있다. 연합뉴스
    도널드 트럼프(오른쪽) 미국 대통령과 김정은 북한 국무위원장이 28일(현지시간) 1대1 단독 정상회담을 마치고 베트남 하노이의 소피텔 레전드 메트로폴 호텔 정원에서 나란히 걷고 있다. 연합뉴스
    세계의 이목이 집중된 가운데 베트남 하노이에서 열린 2차 북-미 정상회담이 28일 아무런 성과를 내지 못하고 결렬됐다. 아침까지만 해도 성공을 향해 순항하는 듯하던 정상회담은 오후 들어 결국 암초를 만났다. 북-미 두 정상은 아무런 합의 없이 예정됐던 합의문 서명식을 취소했다. 커다란 주목과 관심 속에 열린 정상회담이 이렇게 갑작스럽게 결렬된 것은 큰 충격이 아닐 수 없다.
    협상 결렬 책임이 누구에게 있는지 지금으로서는 명확하지 않다. 하지만 절박한 심정으로 하노이에 왔다고 밝힌 김정은 국무위원장이 먼저 회담장을 떠났을 가능성은 크지 않다. 도널드 트럼프 대통령이 “내 결정이라고 말하고 싶지는 않다”고 했지만, 미국 쪽의 원칙 고수가 김 위원장을 압박한 것으로 보인다. 트럼프 대통령은 회담 결렬 분위기와 관련해 ‘박차고 나간 것이 아니고 우호적인 분위기에서 악수하면서 끝냈다’며 다음 만남을 기약했다. 하지만 이런 상황에서 언제 다시 협상이 재개될지는 알 수 없다.
    협상 결렬의 원인이 비핵화 실행조처와 상응조처의 조합을 찾아내지 못한 데 있는 것은 분명해 보인다. 트럼프 대통령이 ‘북한이 우리가 원하는 비핵화를 해주어야만 우리도 제재 완화를 해줄 수 있다고 말했다’고 밝힌 데서도 이런 사실을 엿볼 수 있다. 미국 쪽은 영변 핵시설의 폐기 또는 동결만으로는 충분하지 않다는 입장이었던 데 반해, 김 위원장은 영변 핵시설 폐기 대가로 제재 완화를 강력하게 요구했던 것으로 보인다. 결국 이 두 사안을 놓고 마지막까지 절충점을 찾아보려 했지만 북-미 양쪽 다 물러서지 않은 것이 협상 결렬의 직접적인 원인이 됐을 것이다. 앞으로 협상이 재개된다면 북-미가 지금까지보다 훨씬 더 깊이 논의하고, 합의점을 찾기 위해 역지사지의 자세로 노력해야 함을 보여준다.
    북-미 정상회담과 비핵화 협상 진행 양상에 대한 미국 의회의 부정적인 기류도 협상 결렬에 상당한 영향을 준 것으로 보인다. 최근 들어 일부 기류 변화가 감지되기는 했지만, 워싱턴 정가는 보수와 진보를 막론하고 트럼프 대통령의 대북 협상에 의구심을 감추지 않았다. 트럼프 대통령이 정치적 궁지에서 벗어나기 위해 북한과의 협상에서 너무 많은 것을 내주지 않을까 하는 의구심이 컸다. 이런 상황에서 협상이 미흡하면 미흡한 대로 ‘스몰딜’에 머물렀다는 비판이 나올 것이 불 보듯 뻔했고, 과감한 타협을 본다 해도 북한에 지나치게 양보했다는 비난이 날아들 판이었다. 마찬가지로 북한으로서는 비핵화 실행만 하고 경제발전을 이룰 제재 완화를 해내지 못한다면, 내부의 압박에 처할 수밖에 없는 상황이다. 김 위원장은 핵을 버리고 경제에 집중하겠다는 전략적 결단을 했지만, 그렇다고 해서 체제안보의 핵심인 핵을 당장 포기하기는 쉽지 않은 일이다.
    협상 결렬 뒤 트럼프 대통령이 기자회견에서 내놓은 발언을 보면, 상황이 더 악화할 가능성은 커 보이지 않는다. 마이크 폼페이오 국무장관이 “앞으로 몇 주 내에 합의를 이뤄내길 기대한다”고 밝힌데다 트럼프 대통령이 “궁극적으로 합의를 이뤄낼 것으로 기대한다”고 밝힌 것도 협상을 재개할 뜻이 있음을 보여준다. 하지만 한번 틀어진 협상을 되살리는 데는 많은 노력이 필요하다. 만약 여기서 북-미가 결렬의 책임을 상대방에게 떠넘기며 감정적 균열을 키운다면 사태는 심각한 수준으로 악화할 수 있다.
    북-미 합의를 위해 오랫동안 공을 들여온 우리 정부도 예상치 못한 결과에 충격이 클 것이다. 하지만 마냥 주저앉아 있어서는 안 된다. 문재인 대통령이 북-미 협상의 중재자이자 촉진자로서 최대한 적극적으로 이 상황에 개입해야 한다. 협상 결렬의 여파가 길어져선 안 된다. 참으로 안타까운 일인 것은 분명하지만 이번 결렬로 협상의 판 자체가 깨진 것은 아니다. 우리 정부는 지난해 싱가포르 정상회담을 앞두고 취소된 회담을 되살려낸 바 있다. 그 경험을 살려 협상을 다시 궤도에 올리는 데 모든 노력을 다해야 한다.


    원문보기:
    http://www.hani.co.kr/arti/opinion/editorial/884105.html#csidx72eca9174320931821c22adb81625da

    2019.03.02 04:50 신고 [ ADDR : EDIT/ DEL : REPLY ]

한국정치/북한_DPRK2018. 9. 20. 15:26

(1) 미국 트럼프와 북한 김정은 협상의 궁극적 목표를 분명히 할 필요가 있다. 북한은 미국이 실질적인 체제보장과 군사적 불가침의 제도화 없이는 비핵화를 하지 않을 것이다. 현재 북미간 교착 상태를 깨기 위해서는 미국과 북한이 이번 비핵화 협상의 정치적 목표에 대해서 공감해야 한다. 북한이 동창리 미사일 엔진시험장과 발사대 영구 폐쇄를 실천하면, 미국은 '평양과 와싱턴에 연락사무소'를 설치해야 한다. 그리고 나서 북한이 영변 핵시설 폐기를 실천하면, 경제 제재 조치를 풀어줘야 한다. 이러한 북미간 상호 신뢰를 쌓아나가는 과정이 필요하다. 미국이 2021년 1월까지 북한 비핵화를 요구했으면, 미국도 이에 상응하는 북미 수교, 평양과 와싱턴에 대사관 설립을 실행해야 한다.  


(2) 종전 선언은 주한미군 철수 여부와 상관없이, 한반도 전역에서 '적국'을 가상한 대규모 군사훈련 중지, 상호불가침 조약 등을 일차적으로 포함해야 한다. 


(3) 평화협정은 남북한 미국 뿐만 아니라, 러시아 중국 일본 및 아시아 국가들이 주체가 되어 '냉전 질서' 체제를 종식시키는 것으로 발전되어야 한다. 다자간 안보 체제를 동북아시아에서 만들어야 한다.


(4) 제 3차 문재인 김정은 정상회담의 성과는 제 2차 북미 정상회담 가능성를 키웠다는 것이다.

문재인 김정은 제 3차 정상회담 이후, 미국 폼페오 국무장관 북한과 협상 다시 시작한다. 

뉴욕에서 다음 중에 폼페오 - 리용호 회담 재개하고, 오스트리아 빈에서 미국과 북한 대표부 회의할 예정이다. 

미국측 2021년 1월까지 북한 비핵화 완료 요구하고 있다.

미국은 북한과 '평화협정' 맺을 가능성이 크다고 영국 bbc 통신원 판단.

도널드 트럼프는 북한과 협상하기 위해 제 2차 북미 정상 회담 개최할 가능성이 크다. 



US 'ready to restart negotiations' with North Korea

2 hours ago







North Korea's agreed to shut one of the country's main missile launch sites. Laura Bicker considers what might happen next.



US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says he is ready to restart negotiations with Pyongyang, with the aim of denuclearising North Korea "by 2021".



Discussions between the two sides had stalled following a broad-strokes agreement made earlier this year.



But this week's inter-Korean summit saw the North's Kim Jong-un agreeing to shut a major missile launch site.


South Korean President Moon Jae-in also gave an unprecedented speech in front of tens of thousands of North Koreans.


-


An image of Mr Kim and Mr Moon was projected onto screens during the unprecedented joint appearance at the mass games

Mr Kim "agreed on a way to achieve denuclearisation" on the Korean peninsula following the summit with his South Korean counterpart, Moon Jae-in.



Mr Pompeo said it was "on the basis of these important commitments" that the US was "prepared to engage immediately in negotiations".


In a statement, he said he had invited North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho to meet him in New York next week, while invitations had been extended for a second meeting between North Korean and US representatives in Vienna, Austria.



"This will mark the beginning of negotiations to transform US-DPRK [North Korea] relations through the process of rapid denuclearisation of North Korea, to be completed by January 2021, as committed by Chairman Kim, and to construct a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula," he said.



The January 2021 date is the most specific timeline an official on either side has put forward publicly so far.


What happened at the summit?


The main focus of the summit between Mr Kim and Mr Moon was the issue of denuclearisation.



Mr Kim expressed a readiness to shut down the Yongbyon nuclear facility - where North Korea is believed to have produced the material used in its nuclear tests - if the US takes some reciprocal action.


The BBC's Laura Bicker in Seoul says that is likely to be the US signing a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War.


But he went further on Tongchang-ri, saying the engine missile testing and launch facility would be permanently closed "in the presence of experts from relevant nations". 


Our correspondent say that is a major step forward.


Satellite images suggest Tongchang-ri (동창리) is in the process of being destroyed, she adds, but the declaration will allow inspectors to verify the process.


Tongchang-ri has been North Korea's main satellite launch facility since 2012, according to monitoring group 38 North.

It has also been used for testing engines for North Korean missiles capable of reaching the US.


North Korea blew up its main nuclear testing site at Punggye-ri shortly before Mr Kim's meeting with US President Donald Trump in June.



On Thursday, the two leaders of North and South embarked on a trip to Mount Paektu which holds a central place in Korean mythology. The volcano is situated at the border between the North and China.


What does this mean for US?


Mr Trump welcomed the agreements, which he said were "tremendous progress", and was quick to tweet his applause for the Moon-Kim summit.



Skip Twitter post by @realDonaldTrump


Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

 Kim Jong Un has agreed to allow Nuclear inspections, subject to final negotiations, and to permanently dismantle a test site and launch pad in the presence of international experts. In the meantime there will be no Rocket or Nuclear testing. Hero remains to continue being returned home to the United States. Also, North and South Korea will file a joint bid to host the 2032 Olympics. Very exciting!........


12:04 AM - Sep 19, 2018


The US and North Korea held their own historic meeting in June when Mr Trump and Mr Kim agreed in broad terms to work towards denuclearisation.


Since then, however, there has been little progress, with no clear process nor timeline laid out, while an abruptly cancelled trip to Pyongyang by Mr Pompeo in August led to speculation relations had soured somewhat.



Will historic Koreas summit lead to peace?


Most observers warn that so far the North has taken no meaningful steps to end its controversial nuclear weapons programme and that this week's summit might not be enough to convince them otherwise.


But Mr Trump has remained confident of the North Koreans' commitment, recently saying that he and Mr Kim would "prove everyone wrong", after he received an invitation from the North Korean leader for a second summit. Both sides say they are working on making that meeting happen.

Posted by NJ원시

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한국정치/북한_DPRK2018. 9. 19. 12:59


참고자료: 북한 노동신문 (로동신문)이 보도한 문재인 김정은 제 3차 정상회담 






주체107(2018)년 9월 19일 수요일



력사적인 북남수뇌상봉을 위하여 평양을 방문하는 문재인대통령과 일행 도착


경애하는 최고령도자 김정은동지께서 문재인대통령을 평양국제비행장에서 맞이하시였다


 


조선로동당 위원장이시며 조선민주주의인민공화국 국무위원회 위원장이신 우리 당과 국가, 군대의 최고령도자 김정은동지께서 9월 18일 력사적인 북남수뇌상봉을 위하여 평양을 방문하는 문재인대통령을 평양국제비행장에서 따뜻이 맞이하시였다.


우리 민족의 조국통일사에 또 하나의 새로운 장을 아로새기게 될 북남수뇌상봉은 력사적인 판문점선언과 우리 민족끼리의 정신에 기초하여 북남관계의 발전을 더욱 가속화하고 조선반도의 평화와 번영, 통일의 새시대를 열어나가는데서 중대한 계기로 된다.


비행장에는 수많은 평양시민들이 공화국기와 통일기, 꽃다발을 들고 나와있었다.


우리 당과 국가, 군대의 최고령도자 김정은동지께서 리설주녀사와 함께 비행장에 나오시였다.


군중들은 뜨거운 민족애와 포옹력으로 북남관계개선과 조국통일위업실현에서 새로운 전환적국면을 열어가시는 경애하는 최고령도자동지를 우러러 폭풍같은 《만세!》의 환호성을 터쳐올리였다.


조선로동당 중앙위원회 정치국 상무위원회 위원이며 조선민주주의인민공화국 최고인민회의 상임위원회 위원장인 김영남동지, 조선로동당 중앙위원회 정치국 상무위원회 위원이며 조선민주주의인민공화국 국무위원회 부위원장이며 당중앙위원회 부위원장인 최룡해동지와 조선로동당 중앙위원회 부위원장들인 김영철동지, 리수용동지, 외무상 리용호동지, 조선인민군 총정치국장 륙군대장 김수길동지, 인민무력상 륙군대장 노광철동지, 평양시당위원회 위원장 김능오동지, 조국평화통일위원회 위원장 리선권동지, 평양시인민위원회 위원장 차희림동지가 비행장에 나와있었다.


오전 10시, 문재인대통령과 일행을 태운 비행기가 평양국제비행장에 착륙하였다.


환영곡이 울리는 가운데 경애하는 최고령도자 김정은동지께서와 리설주녀사께서 문재인대통령과 김정숙녀사를 맞이하시였다.


북남수뇌분들께서는 근 4개월만에 또다시 상봉하게 된 기쁨을 나누시며 뜨겁게 포옹하시였다.


경애하는 최고령도자동지께서는 평양을 방문한 문재인대통령을 열렬히 환영하시였다.


문재인대통령은 김정은국무위원장께서 몸소 비행장에까지 나오시여 따뜻이 맞이해주신데 대해 깊은 사의를 표시하였다.


문재인대통령과 부인에게 학생소년들이 꽃다발을 드리였다.


문재인대통령과 함께 공식수행원들인 정의용 청와대 국가안보실 실장, 조명균 통일부 장관, 강경화 외교부 장관, 송영무 국방부 장관, 도종환 문화체육관광부 장관, 김현미 국토교통부 장관, 김영춘 해양수산부 장관, 서훈 국가정보원 원장, 김재현 산림청 청장, 주영훈 청와대 경호처 처장, 김현철 청와대 경제보좌관, 김종천 청와대 의전비서관, 윤건영 청와대 국정기획상황실 실장, 김의겸 청와대 대변인, 특별수행원들인 각계인사들과 기자들이 왔다.


문재인대통령을 환영하는 의식이 진행되였다.


경애하는 최고령도자 김정은동지와 함께 문재인대통령은 21발의 례포가 울리는 속에 조선인민군 군종명예위병대를 사열하였다.


경애하는 최고령도자동지께서와 문재인대통령은 사열대에 오르시여 조선인민군 군종명예위병대의 분렬행진을 보시였다.


경애하는 최고령도자동지와 함께 문재인대통령은 군중들의 앞을 지나며 열렬한 환영에 답례를 보내였다.


문재인대통령이 탄 차는 모터찌클의 호위를 받으며 숙소인 백화원영빈관으로 향하였다.


력사적인 북남수뇌상봉을 위하여 평양을 방문한 문재인대통령과 일행을 연도에서 10만여명의 시민들이 동포애의 정을 안고 환영하였다.


경애하는 최고령도자동지께서는 련못동입구에서 문재인대통령과 함께 무개차에 옮겨타시였다.


북남수뇌분들을 모신 차가 련못동입구를 떠나 룡흥네거리와 려명거리를 지나는 연도에서 군중들은 《조국통일》, 《평화》, 《번영》이라고 웨치고 공화국기와 통일기, 꽃다발을 흔들며 열광적인 환호를 올리였다.


4.25문화회관광장을 비롯한 거리의 곳곳에 꽉 들어찬 군중들, 살림집창가들에서 손을 흔들며 반기는 시민들의 환영열기는 더욱 달아올랐다.


경애하는 최고령도자 김정은동지께서는 문재인대통령과 함께 환호하는 군중들에게 손저어주시였다.


북남수뇌분들께서 타신 무개차는 환영의 연도를 지나 백화원영빈관에 도착하였다.


경애하는 최고령도자동지께서 리설주녀사와 함께 문재인대통령과 김정숙녀사를 숙소에 안내하시였다.


백화원영빈관 종업원들은 문재인대통령내외분에게 꽃다발을 드리고 열렬히 환영하였다.


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Copyright @ 2018 by The Rodong Sinmun. All rights reserved.




주체107(2018)년 9월 19일 수요일



문재인대통령을 환영하는 예술공연 진행


경애하는 최고령도자 김정은동지께서 공연을 관람하시였다


 


력사적인 북남수뇌상봉을 위하여 평양을 방문하고있는 문재인대통령을 환영하는 예술공연이 9월 18일에 진행되였다.


조선로동당 위원장이시며 조선민주주의인민공화국 국무위원회 위원장이신 우리 당과 국가, 군대의 최고령도자 김정은동지께서와 리설주녀사께서 문재인대통령내외분과 함께 공연을 관람하시였다.


경애하는 최고령도자 김정은동지께서와 리설주녀사께서 평양대극장앞에서 문재인대통령내외분을 따뜻이 맞이하시였다.


문재인대통령과 부인에게 녀성예술인들이 꽃다발을 드리였다.


경애하는 최고령도자 김정은동지께서 문재인대통령과 함께 극장 특별관람석에 나오시자 전체 출연자들과 관람자들은 열광의 환호를 터쳐올리였다.


공연관람에는 정의용 청와대 국가안보실 실장, 조명균 통일부 장관, 강경화 외교부 장관, 도종환 문화체육관광부 장관, 서훈 국가정보원 원장을 비롯한 남측인사들이 초대되였다.


조선로동당 중앙위원회 부위원장들인 리수용동지, 김영철동지, 조선로동당 중앙위원회 제1부부장 김여정동지, 조국평화통일위원회 위원장 리선권동지, 평양시안의 일군들, 근로자들이 공연을 관람하였다.


서곡 《반갑습니다》의 노래선률이 울리는 속에 소개자가 남녘의 동포들을 반갑게 맞는 우리 인민들의 뜨거운 마음을 담아 성의껏 준비한 환영공연의 시작을 알리였다.


출연자들은 가야금을 위한 관현악 《아리랑》, 남성독창 《동무생각》, 현악중주와 노래 《새별》을 비롯하여 온 겨레의 한결같은 통일열망과 민족적향취가 차넘치는 종목들을 아름다운 선률과 세련된 춤률동으로 펼쳐보이였다.


남조선인민들속에서 널리 애창되고있는 가요들과 세계명곡들이 환영무대를 이채롭게 장식하였다.


반만년의 유구한 력사와 찬란한 문화를 자랑하는 우리 민족의 우수성이 환희로운 음악세계로 펼쳐지는 무대에 경음악 《내 나라 제일로 좋아》, 가무 《달려가자 미래로》가 올라 공연분위기를 한층 돋구었다.


장내를 민족화합의 후더운 열기로 달아오르게 한 공연은 관람자들의 대절찬을 받았다.


공연이 끝나자 또다시 열광의 환호가 터져올랐다.


출연자들에게 문재인대통령과 부인의 명의로 된 꽃바구니가 전달되였다.


경애하는 최고령도자동지께서는 문재인대통령과 함께 무대에 오르시여 출연자들의 공연성과를 축하하시였다.


문재인대통령과 부인은 자기들을 극진히 맞아주고 훌륭한 공연을 마련해준데 대하여 깊은 사의를 표시하였다.


주체107(2018)년 9월 19일 수요일



경애하는 최고령도자 김정은동지께서


문재인대통령의 평양방문을 환영하여 성대한 연회를 마련하시였다


 


조선로동당 위원장이시며 조선민주주의인민공화국 국무위원회 위원장이신 우리 당과 국가, 군대의 최고령도자 김정은동지께서 9월 18일 력사적인 북남수뇌상봉을 위하여 평양을 방문한 문재인대통령을 환영하는 성대한 연회를 마련하시였다.


경애하는 최고령도자 김정은동지께서와 리설주녀사께서 연회장인 목란관 홀에서 문재인대통령과 김정숙녀사를 따뜻이 맞이하시였다.


연회에는 정의용 청와대 국가안보실 실장, 조명균 통일부 장관, 강경화 외교부 장관, 송영무 국방부 장관, 도종환 문화체육관광부 장관, 김현미 국토교통부 장관, 김영춘 해양수산부 장관, 서훈 국가정보원 원장, 김재현 산림청 청장, 주영훈 청와대 경호처 처장, 김현철 청와대 경제보좌관, 김종천 청와대 의전비서관, 윤건영 청와대 국정기획상황실 실장, 김의겸 청와대 대변인을 비롯한 남측수행원들이 초대되였다.


조선로동당 중앙위원회 정치국 상무위원회 위원이며 조선민주주의인민공화국 최고인민회의 상임위원회 위원장인 김영남동지와 조선로동당 중앙위원회 부위원장들인 김영철동지, 리수용동지, 인민무력상 륙군대장 노광철동지, 조선로동당 중앙위원회 제1부부장 김여정동지, 평양시당위원회 위원장 김능오동지, 조국평화통일위원회 위원장 리선권동지, 평양시인민위원회 위원장 차희림동지를 비롯한 당과 정부, 군대의 간부들이 연회에 참가하였다.


경애하는 최고령도자 김정은동지께서와 리설주녀사께서 문재인대통령내외분과 함께 연회장에 나오시자 전체 참가자들은 열광적인 박수로 환영하였다.


경애하는 최고령도자 김정은동지께서 환영연설을 하시였다.


경애하는 최고령도자동지께서는 문재인대통령과 김정숙녀사, 남측인사들을 꽃피는 봄계절에 이어 풍요한 가을에 또다시 만나게 된 반가운 심정을 표명하시면서 대통령내외분의 평양방문을 열렬히 환영하시였다.


이어 문재인대통령이 답례연설을 하였다.


문재인대통령은 김정은위원장께서 가을이 오면 다시 만나자고 하신 약속을 잊지 않으시고 평양에 초청해주시였으며 극진히 환대해주신데 대한 감사의 정을 표시하였다.


연회는 시종 화기애애한 분위기속에서 진행되였다.


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한국정치/북한_DPRK2018. 8. 2. 18:24

Thank you to Chairman Kim Jong Un for keeping your word & starting the process of sending home the remains of our great and beloved missing fallen!


 I am not at all surprised that you took this kind action. 


Also, thank you for your nice letter - l look forward to seeing you soon!


12:47 AM - 2 Aug 2018



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정책비교/국제정치2018. 5. 12. 12:23

미국 국제정치 학자 94%, 트럼프의 이란 핵협정 탈퇴는 잘못된 결정이라고 한 반면, 대중 여론은 53%가 잘못된 결정이라고 답변. 

기후변화에 대해서는 미국 국제정치 학자 10명 중 8명은 기후문제가 미국의 중대한 위협이 될 것이라고 답변한 반면에, 미국 대중들의 56%가 '위협'이라고 답변했다.

 




MAY 9, 2018

U.S. international relations scholars, global citizens differ sharply on views of threats to their country






U.S. foreign policy scholars are more concerned about climate change – and less worried about ISIS and refugees – than both average Americans and general publics abroad.

The international relations scholars in question shared their views via a survey conducted by the Teaching, Research and International Policy (TRIP) Project. The questions posed to these U.S. academics were mirrored in a 2017 Pew Research Center survey of publics in 37 countries, plus the United States.

Eight-in-ten international relations scholars surveyed as part of the TRIP project said that climate change is a major threat to the U.S., compared with 56% of the American general public. 


A median of 61% across 37 countries surveyed in spring 2017 also said climate change is a threat to their country.


 Fewer than one-in-ten (7%) IR scholars said the large number of refugees from places like Iraq and Syria is a big threat, while almost four-in-ten around the world and 36% of Americans held this view. 


And while 74% of Americans and 62% among global publics said ISIS is a major threat, only 14% of the scholars agreed.

The surveyed scholars were also far more negative than general publics when asked about various policies supported by U.S. President Donald Trump, such as withdrawing from the Iran nuclear weapons agreement and trade deals.

 (Trump signaled in April that rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership was under consideration and announced on May 8 that the U.S. is pulling out of the Iran nuclear agreement.)

On all these issues, overwhelming majorities of foreign policy scholars disapproved of these policies, with roughly nine-in-ten or more expressing such sentiments.

In the Pew Research Center survey, public disapproval of Trump’s policies was common across most countries. 

The intensity of disapproval, however, was typically far lower on each issue tested than among the U.S.-based scholars, possibly signaling a disconnect between this group and international public opinion.

The gap between U.S. international relations experts and the public is even starker at home. 


About nine-in-ten of the scholars (89%) had a negative view on the policy of restricting some people from Muslim-majority nations from entering the U.S., compared with 48% of the U.S. public. 


The scholars also had a dimmer view than the American public about pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal by a 41-percentage-point margin. (A recent survey found that the American public is skeptical of the Iran agreement – and Trump’s handling of the issue, but only about a quarter have heard “a lot” about the nuclear deal.)


 The smallest gap between scholars and average Americans was on the proposal to pull out of international climate agreements (27 points), but even here there is a significant difference in sentiment.

This pattern of experts disagreeing with citizens is not a new phenomenon: Pew Research Center has tracked these differences over the years, including in 2016, 2017 and 2018.

Note: The Teaching, Research and International Policy (TRIP) project, based at the College of William & Mary, is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

TOPICS: FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND POLICY

  1. Photo of Jacob Poushter

     is a senior researcher focusing on global attitudes at Pew Research Cente



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정책비교/국제정치2018. 5. 10. 21:14

April 30 at 8:26pm · 


1. 중요한 인터뷰임: 팀 셔록 인터뷰 요지


 1) 한국은 더이상 미국과 종속적인 '식민지'관계가 아니다. 시대가 변했다. 


2) 미국의 한국,북한전문가들과 주류언론들은 '눈을 크게 뜨고 한국과 북한 정상 회담 결과를 봐라' . 8개월 전만 해도 북한 비핵화를 외치더니, 실제 비핵화를 남북한이 한다고 선언해도, 아직도 그 진정성을 의심하는 미국 북한-한국 전문가들은 시대 변화를 모른다.


 (브루킹스 , 주류 언론도 마찬가지 오류다) 아래 마이클 오한론 입장을 비판하다. 


2. 마이클 오한론 (brookings 소속 아시아,한국 담당) 발언요지: 북한의 한반도 비핵화와 미국의 비핵화 개념이 다르다. 북한의 의도가 아직 불분명하다.


- (*마이클 오한론과는 인터뷰를 한 적이 있는데, 보수파 싱크탱크 헤리티지 입장과 브루킹스 마이클 오한론 대북한 입장이 거의 유사해지고, 수렴해졌다는 것을 알게되었다. 이러한 브루킹스의 대북 강경론 입장 때문에, 오바마 10년은 이명박-박근혜 10년, 북미 한미 남북 관계에 아무런 진전이 없게 되었다.) 


(한국 정치권에 오바마에 대한 호의적 태도가 많은데, 한국 북한 미국 외교관계만을 놓고 보면, 오바마는 0점에 가깝다. 아무것도 한 일이 없고, 오히려 이명박 박근혜의 호전적이고 낭비적인 대북강경론에 힘을 실어 준 꼴을 낳았다.)



참고자료 1 


Democracy Now!

April 30 at 7:30pm · 

The U.S. media coverage of Friday's inter-Korean summit is reflective of the "colonial-like relationship" the U.S. has with South Korea, says reporter Tim Shorrock. http://ow.ly/m2kS30jKOCs







참고자료 2



North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has pledged to abandon his nuclear weapons if the United States agrees to formally end the Korean War and promises not to invade his country. The announcement came after a historic meeting Friday between Kim and South Korean leader Moon Jae-in in the truce village of Panmunjom. Then, on Sunday, North Korea’s state media said Kim had vowed to immediately suspend nuclear and missile tests, and would dismantle its Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site. We discuss the potentially historic developments with Tim Shorrock, correspondent for The Nation and the Korea Center for Investigative Journalism in Seoul.

Transcript
This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: We begin today with news that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has pledged to abandon his nuclear weapons if the United States agrees to formally end the Korean War and promises not to invade his country. This comes after an historic meeting Friday between Kim and South Korean leader Moon Jae-in in the truce village of Panmunjom. During the meeting, which was broadcast live on the Korean Peninsula and around the world, the two leaders held hands and pledged to work for peace and replace the 1953 armistice with a formal truce. On Sunday, North Korea’s state media said Kim had vowed to immediately suspend nuclear and missile tests, and would dismantle its Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site. Some analysts say the site has been unusable since a massive test last September caused an earthquake so big that satellites captured images of the mountain above the site actually moving. But a South Korean presidential spokesman said that while some facilities are not functioning, others remain in good condition. He also told reporters Kim had called for the United States to meet often with the North.

YOON YOUNG-CHAN: [translated] Leader Kim said that if North Korea meets the United States more often, builds on trust and promises to end war and nonaggression, why should we have nuclear weapons, which make our life difficult?

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: This comes as President Trump has pressed North Korea to dismantle its nuclear program ahead of a summit with Kim in May or June, and he recently revealed that now-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a secret visit to the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, over Easter weekend. On Saturday, supporters chanted “Nobel” as Trump spoke at a rally in Michigan.

TRUMP SUPPORTERS: Nobel! Nobel! Nobel! Nobel! Nobel! Nobel! Nobel! Nobel! Nobel! Nobel!

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: That’s very nice. Thank you. That’s very nice. Nobel. I just want to get the job done.

AMY GOODMAN: Meanwhile, Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, told Fox News Sunday Trump should be cautious about talks with the North Korean dictator. He was interviewed by host Chris Wallace.

JOHN BOLTON: There’s nobody in the Trump administration starry-eyed about what—what may happen here. But by demonstrating they’ve made a strategic decision to give up nuclear weapons, it would be possible to move quickly, as, again, the Libya case demonstrates.

CHRIS WALLACE: The North Koreans are going to give up everything they’ve got, but, in return, the U.S. would agree that we are not going to allow any nuclear-armed airplanes or nuclear-armed ships on the Korean Peninsula. Is that acceptable?

JOHN BOLTON: Well, we certainly haven’t made that commitment. And again, I’m looking at the Panmunjom Declaration, as they call it, in the context of a series of earlier North-South Korean agreements.

CHRIS WALLACE: So, you don’t view this as involving any kind of commitment from the U.S.

JOHN BOLTON: I don’t think it binds the United States, no.

AMY GOODMAN: For more, we go to Washington, D.C., to speak with Tim Shorrock, correspondent for The Nation and the Korea Center for Investigative Journalism in Seoul. He grew up in Japan and South Korea. His latest piece headlined “South and North Korea Prepare to Discuss an End to the Korean War: But Washington’s pundit class seems united against a peace process.” And he’s in the midst of another piece that will come out this week.

Tim, welcome back to Democracy Now! Start off by talking about the significance of the North Korean leader—for the first time, a North Korean leader stepped foot in South Korea. What took place last week?

TIM SHORROCK: Thank you for having me, Amy. It was an amazing sight to see Kim Jong-un step over that border and shake hands with Moon Jae-in. This is, of course—you know, he’s the highest level—he’s the only leader from North Korea to ever step into South Korea. And that was a symbolic step, him coming to the South.

And their declaration, the Panmunjom Declaration, that was just mentioned, it’s quite an amazing document, and I really urge our listeners to download it and read it very carefully, because, you know, they come out very clearly for a, you know, complete peace process. They talk about the complete denuclearization. They’re committed to denuclearization. They talk about reconnecting the blood relations of the people, determining the destiny of the Korean nation on their own accord. They set out very important steps for reconciliation, such as setting up a joint liaison office, reconnecting railroads and roads that have been cut off in the past, and moving towards, you know, a peace regime that involves the United States and China and settles the Korean War once and for all. And it’s really quite a document. And I think the South Korean people, you know, were very impressed with what Kim Jong-un said and what other members of the North Korean delegation said. And the whole atmosphere of it was very conducive. And I note, you know, that Moon Jae-in, the president, his popularity is up to 85 percent now, precisely because of this.

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: And, Tim, I wanted to ask you specifically about the South Korean president, because all the media attention here seems to focus on what Trump has done or hasn’t done, but, really, Moon was elected in early 2017, and he has—could you talk about his own history and why it’s been so important that he has really boxed in, to a certain extent, President Trump on what he can or can’t do vis-à-vis North Korea?

TIM SHORROCK: Well, we all remember the candlelight revolution, you know, weeks on end, millions of Koreans into the streets to protest the regime of Park Geun-hye a year ago, year and a half ago. And it was that movement that brought Moon Jae-in to power. I mean, his election was a snap election, because the president was impeached. She was very right-wing. She was very oppressive, repressive. And she was very hard-line toward North Korea. People want peace with North Korea.

I was in Korea, South Korea, a year ago, and I got to see Moon Jae-in three times in campaign appearances in Gwangju. And I also interviewed him for The Nationmagazine. And his dream, at the time, was, you know, to defuse the tension between North and South, but to really move towards peace between North Korea and the United States and settle this nuclear crisis, which was really heightening at the time. And, you know, he was being accused at the time of being—one, being anti-American, which is ridiculous, and he was accused of trying to undermine the U.S.-South Korean alliance. And what he told me was that, you know, if he moved toward peace between the U.S. and North Korea and helped do that, that this would be good for the United States and good for Trump. And that’s the gamble that he took. And I think he’s won that gamble.

And it was his diplomacy, you know, that got the North Koreans into the South during the Olympic Games. They had very high-level talks then and afterwards. And I think, you know, as a result of those meetings, Kim Jong-un invited to meet—Trump to meet with him. And that’s what set the stage for all of this. So, I think, you know, a huge amount of credit should go to President Moon, his government and the people of South Korea, who have backed this very, very strongly.

AMY GOODMAN: And I believe President Moon said that President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize for this. And we heard on Saturday night, when Trump, again, saying no to attending the White House Correspondents’ dinner, went to another Washington—Washington, Michigan—and people in the audience chanted “Nobel! Nobel!” Tim Shorrock?

TIM SHORROCK: Well, we shall see. I think that the person who might deserve it most would be Moon. But, you know, if Trump can get a peace agreement with Kim Jong-un and there actually is a permanent peace that’s verifiable on both sides, then perhaps he might—perhaps he might deserve such an award. But I think that, you know, there’s a lot of negotiations to be done. And while I think that the—you know, clearly, there’s questions about how denuclearization might take place and the whole system of making sure that does happen, verification and so on, you know, the North Koreans, as they said, as you mentioned at the top of the news, they have said they will—there’s is no reason to have nuclear weapons if the United States vows not to attack them and the United States signs a peace agreement. So, the real issue also is whether or not the U.S. can drop its decades-long hostile policy toward North Korea, which includes nuclear arms pointed at North Korea, which includes sanctions and economic embargo, and which includes attempts to overthrow and have regime change in North Korea. That’s a real issue, I think.

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: And, Tim, what about the role of Kim Jong-un? Here’s a man who was ridiculed in the American press, mocked. Trump called him “Little Rocket Man.” And yet he has managed to maneuver very skillfully through all of the shoals that his country has faced, and now is apparently on the cusp of a major diplomatic achievement here.

TIM SHORROCK: Well, you know, back in the beginning of 2017, he gave a New Year’s speech where he said, “This year we’re going to complete our nuclear force.” And, you know, they went forward and began testing all these missiles. And they had one nuclear test last year. And at the end of the year, he said, “We have completed our nuclear force, and we will stop testing.” And that’s when he made the offer, you know, on January 1st, to meet with Moon Jae-in and to send a delegation to the South. So, you know, he has played this very craftily. And he decided that he wanted to speak to the United States, negotiate with the United States, from a position of strength. And, you know, he does have the weapons, though interesting thing about his program last year was that they stopped short of actually getting a weapon onto a missile that can enter the atmosphere and hit a target. So, they do not have a nuclear-armed ICBM that can hit the United States at this time. They may be two or three years away from that. So, he stopped testing, and that word got to the White House through South Korea and through Americans who meet from time to time with North Korean officials. And it was clear that he wanted to talk. And I think that his party has made some kind of fundamental decision to kind of shift their focus now to building their economy and opening up to the world. And I think that’s what we’re seeing.

I mean, this is a very young guy. He’s 34 years old. He was not responsible for the past agreements and what happened in the past with the United States and North Korea. He’s only been in power a few years. But he’s clearly made a shift away from some of the very, very hard-line rhetoric and statements that were made. So, that’s—I think it’s a very interesting time. And clearly, you know, some of his language has changed, the way he talks about the U.S. and South Korea. When he was in South Korea, you know, he spoke to the South Korean people on television. And, you know, people were impressed. And he actually joked about certain things, like how bad the roads are in North Korea. And he actually acknowledged the fact that there are defectors, there are people leaving North Korea. So he’s somebody who seems to be able to deal with the reality of the situation, and can talk plainly about what needs to be done to move forward to a peace process. And I think that he really does want to fix and improve the North Korean economy. And this is the way to do it.

AMY GOODMAN: Let me ask you about the issue of media coverage of the possible rapprochement on the Korean Peninsula. In a recent article in The New York Timesheadlined “As Two Koreas Talk Peace, Trump’s Bargaining Chips Slip Away,” Mark Landler expressed skepticism that the meeting between the South and North Korean leaders could be beneficial to the U.S., concluding, quote, “The talk of peace is likely to weaken the two levers that Mr. Trump used to pressure Mr. Kim to come to the bargaining table. A resumption of regular diplomatic exchanges between the two Koreas, analysts said, will inevitably erode the crippling economic sanctions against the North, while Mr. Trump will find it hard to threaten military action against a country that is extending an olive branch,” unquote. Meanwhile, Brookings Institution senior fellow Michael O’Hanlon had this to say on Friday.

MICHAEL O’HANLON: President Trump’s going to have to rein in his more ambitious goals and yet still drive a relatively hard line and not give away too much for an interim or partial agreement. … The denuclearization idea, however, is a long ways from even getting seriously started, because we’ve heard this kind of talk before. We know that North Korea means something else by the concept of denuclearization than we think we hear with our Western ears. And I haven’t seen even any realistic discussion of what would be the first steps or any kind of an interim deal along the way.

AMY GOODMAN: Tim Shorrock, your response to all of these comments?

TIM SHORROCK: Well, Michael O’Hanlon has been so wrong on so many things, like Iraq and Afghanistan, for so long, I don’t know why anybody is listening to him. But he’s completely wrong. He apparently has not read this Panmunjom Declaration, for one thing.

But let me get back to that Times piece. I mean, you know, I quoted from that—I quote from that in my next article and my last one in The Nation. I also talked about his reporting. I mean, that statement, that somehow it comes out that, you know, a peace agreement is bad for the U.S. national security because it will prevent Trump from taking military action, what kind of talk is that for a reporter? He depends on all the establishment, you know, pundits and experts in town, rounds them all up to make this analysis.

It’s just amazing to me to see the Washington consensus. I mean, people here in Washington, in the press and in the pundit class, they make fun of North Korea for being this totalitarian state where everyone thinks the same and has to do what the leader says. Well, the lockstep groupthink here in Washington is very similar. It’s just they all say the same thing. You can read the same analysis that you just heard from Brookings, that you just saw in The New York Times, you can see that, you know, in Post, in all these hot takes that appear in the PostThe AtlanticThe New Yorker. Everybody thinks the same way in this pundit class here in Washington.

Nobody takes Korea, South Korea, seriously, nobody takes North Korea seriously, that South Korea and North Korea mapped out a procedure, a plan, to denuclearize and to decompress and to move toward a peace regime and decrease the tensions. And South Korea took steps today, for example, that they said they were going to end all hostile acts. One of those hostile acts is these huge speakers they have set up in the DMZ to broadcast propaganda and broadcast K-pop into North Korea. They’re taking them down today. They’re taking these steps, one by one, to move toward this peace that’s been denied to Korea for so long.

And I think American pundits should be—you know, applaud South Korea for taking these steps, and applaud North Korea. You see these—you see these stories like, you know, eight months ago, North Korea must denuclearize, must say they’re going to denuclearize. You see this all over. And then, all of a sudden, they say they’re going to denuclearize, and then the headline is “U.S. Wary of North Korea Saying They’re Going to Denuclearize.” I mean, you know, give it a break. You know, open your eyes. Try to understand what’s actually happening in North Korea and South Korea. And the fact is, the United States cannot control Korea anymore. The United States has been in Korea militarily since 1945. And it’s time to end this colonial-like relationship the U.S. has with South Korea.

AMY GOODMAN: Well, Tim Shorrock, I want to thank you for being with us, correspondent for The Nation and the Korea Center for Investigative Journalism in Seoul.

When we come back, we look at the life and the legacy of Dr. James Cone, who died this weekend, the father of black liberation theology in the United States.

[break]

AMY GOODMAN: “Feels Like Rain” by the great jazz musician, 81-year-old Buddy Guy. He performed last night, along with Bobby Rush, about to turn 85, for the last night of B.B. King’s in New York. The legendary jazz venue is closing down.


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한국정치/북한_DPRK2018. 4. 27. 10:02

김정은, 세계 여론을 의식해, 시선집중 (Scene-Stealer) 사진 연출하다. 정치의 놀이화 공연.


 문재인 김정은 남북 정상 회담, 월담 놀이, 월경놀이를 통해, 군사적 대결장이 아닌 화해의 공간이 판문점이라는 것을 보여주다. 


김정은 노동당위원장이 문재인 대통령에게 북한 영토로 한번 같이 넘어갔다 오자고 제안했다. 


문재인 대통령도 이에 화답해 남북 경계선을 넘어 북한 땅을 한번 같이 밟고 남으로 다시 같이 내려왔다.

















업데이트:


어제는 무슨 말을 서로 했는지 음성이 들리지 않았다. 



오늘 다시 뉴스에서 자막으로 김정은과 문재인의 대화를 알려주었다.































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