트럼프도 해리스도 당선가능하다. 각각 5가지 이유들.
트럼프 승리 요소.
1) 경제 상황의 악화와 조 바이든의 인기 하락 속에 트럼프를 대안으로.
미국인 26%만이 현재 미국 상태 만족, 72%는 불만족
경제적 상황이 더 좋아질 것이다 32%, 더 나빠질 것이다 62%
2)
트럼프, 악재와 나쁜 뉴스에도 별 손해를 받지 않는다. 2021년 1월 미국 의회 의사당 난입, 연이은 기소, 형사유죄 판결에도, 트럼프 핵심 지지율 40% 유지.
트럼프에 대한 극단적 태도가 공존. 공화당은 그를 정치적 마녀사냥의 희생자로 간주하고, "트럼프는 절대 안돼" 보수파와 민주당은 트럼프는 대통령 자격이 없다고 판단. 양 극단적 평가 세력들의 크기는 비등비등하다, 그래서 트럼프는 그에 대한 '편견' 없는 유권자들이 자기를 찍으면 당선된다고 믿고 있다.
트럼프가 믿는 구석.
3) 불법 이민자에 대한 트럼프 경고가 공감을 얻고 있다.
경제적 상황 이외에도 선거 승부를 좌지우지 하는 것은 유권자의 정서적 심리상태이다.
민주당은 '낙태 찬성'에, 트럼프는 '이민자 정책'에 자신있어 한다.
조 바이든 정부 하에서, 미국 멕시코 국경선에서 이민자를 둘러싼 갈등이 최고조에 오름. 이민자 유입 문제가 국경선으로부터 멀리 떨어진 주에도 영향을 미치게 되자, 여론 조사에 따르면, 트럼프가 이민자 문제를 더 잘 해결한다는 결과 나옴.
4) 트럼프 지지층 특성.
비대졸자들이 더 대졸자들보다 더 많다.
트럼프 지지자들은 미국사회에서 '잊혀진' '내버려진' 유권자들이다. 트럼프는 이를 통해 전통적인 민주당 텃밭, 즉 노동조합 노동자 선거구에서 승리했다. 그리고 미국 산업 보호를 위해 '관세' 장벽 정책을 미국의 정상적 정책으로 만들었다. 경합주 (부동층 주)의 농촌, 교외에 거주하는 유권자들이 트럼프에 투표하게 되면, 반트럼프 중도층, 대졸자 공화당 지지자들의 투표수를 상쇄하게 될 것이다.
5) 국제 전쟁들과 남자,여자.
불안정한 국제 질서에서 트럼프는 강한 남자로 인식되고 있다.
트럼프 비판자들은, 그가 권위주의적 지도자들과 잘 지내면서 미국의 동맹국가들과의 관계를 약화시키고 있다고 말한다.
그러나 트럼프는 그의 예측불가능성을 강점으로 꼽고, 대통령직에 있었을 때 오히려 큰 전쟁이 발발하지 않았다고 지적한다.
미국이 우크라이나와 이스라엘에 수십억 달러를 지원한 것에 대해 많은 미국인들이 각각 다른 이유로 분노하고 있다. 미국이 조 바이든 정부 하에서 더 약해졌다고 판단한다.
조 로간과 같은 팟캐스트을 통해 트럼프가 환심을 사고 있는 남자들은 트럼프를 민주당 해리스보다 더 강력한 지도자로 간주하고 있다.
2. 민주당 해리스 후보 승리 요소들
1) 해리스는 갈등, 양극단, 불안정을 상징하는 '트럼프'가 아니다.
중도적 공화당 지지자들과 무당층 독립파 유권자들이 해리스를 '안정적인 후보'로 간주해 지지한다.
2) 해리스는 너무 늙은 조 바이든이 아니다. 많은 유권자들이 조 바이든이 대통령직 수행에 적합하지 않다고 판단했는데, 그 중에 하나가 나이가 너무 많고, 건강하지 못하다는 것이다. 조 바이든에서 해리스로 카말라 해리스로 후보가 바뀐 후, 오히려 트럼프가 대통령직 수행에 나이가 너무 많다고 유권자들이 생각하고 있다.
3) 카말라 해리스가 여성 낙태권 옹호.
1973년 미국 대법원은 로 대 웨이드 (Roe v Wade) 판결에서, 미국 헌법은 여성의 낙태권을 옹호하게 되었다. 그러나 2022년 미국 대법원은 여성의 낙태권을 뒤집어 버렸다. 경합주인 아리조나 주를 비롯 10개 주에서, '낙태'가 어떻게 규제되어야 하는가를 묻는 투표가 진행될 것이다.이 투표 때문에, 낙태권을 옹호하는 해리스 지지자들이 투표장에 더 많이 나올 것이다.
또한 칼라마 해리스가 당선되면 미국 정치사에서 최초의 여성 대통령이 되기 때문에, 여성 유권자들의 지지가 기대된다.
4) 해리스를 지지하는 유권자의 투표율이 높을 것이다.
대졸자와 노년층 유권자들이 카말라 해리스를 더 지지한다.
트럼프는 투표율이 낮은 유권자층 (청년층과 비대졸자)의 지지를 받고 있고, 반면에 투표율이 높은 유권자층(대졸자와 노년)은 카말라 해리스르 지지하고 있다.
2020년에도 트럼프를 지지하는 상당수 유권자들이 실제로 투표장에 가지 않았다 ( 뉴욕탕미즈/시에나 여론)
과연 이번에는 다를 것인가?
5) 카말라 해리스가 선거 기부금을 트럼프보다 더 많이 모았다.
2024년 대선, 역대 선거중 가장 많은 선거 비용이 들었다.
트럼프는 2023년 1월부터 기금을 모았지만, 2024년 7월부터 기금을 모은 해리스가 트럼프를 능가했다.
해리스는 트럼프보다 2배 홍보비를 사용했고, 이는 박빙 승부를 펼치고 있는 경합주에서 효과를 발휘할 수 있을 것으로 보인다.
(번역 원시)
Roe v. Wade, 410 U.S. 113 (1973), was a landmark decision of the U.S. Supreme Court in which
the Court ruled that the Constitution of the United States protected a right to have an abortion.
10 reasons both Harris and Trump can be hopeful of victory
Ben Bevington
BBC News, Washington
BBC Harris and Trump with a number 10 between themBBC
With just one day to go, the race for the White House is deadlocked - both at the national level and in the all-important battleground states.
The polls are so close, within the margin of error, that either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could actually be two or three points better off - enough to win comfortably.
There is a compelling case to make for why each may have the edge when it comes to building a coalition of voters in the right places, and then ensuring they actually turn out.
Let’s start with the history-making possibility that a defeated president might be re-elected for the first time in 130 years.
Harris v Trump poll tracker
Live updates from the campaign's closing stages
When will we know if Harris or Trump has won?
Trump could win because…
1. He’s not in power
The economy is the number one issue for voters, and while unemployment is low and the stock market is booming, most Americans say they are struggling with higher prices every day.
Inflation hit levels not seen since the 1970s in the aftermath of the pandemic, giving Trump the chance to ask “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”
In 2024, voters around the world have several times thrown out the party in power, partly due to the high, post-Covid, cost of living. US voters also seem hungry for change.
Only a quarter of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction the country is going in and two-thirds have a poor economic outlook.
Harris has tried to be the so-called change candidate, but as vice-president has struggled to distance herself from an unpopular Joe Biden.
2. He seems impervious to bad news
Despite the fallout from the 6 January 2021 riot at the US Capitol, a string of indictments and an unprecedented criminal conviction, Trump’s support has remained stable all year at 40% or above.
While Democrats and “Never-Trump” conservatives say he is unfit for office, most Republicans agree when Trump says he’s the victim of a political witch-hunt.
With both sides so dug in, he just needs to win over enough of the small slice of undecided voters without a fixed view of him.
3. His warnings on illegal immigration resonate
Beyond the state of the economy, elections are often decided by an issue with an emotional pull.
Democrats will hope it’s abortion, while Trump is betting it’s immigration.
After encounters at the border hit record levels under Biden, and the influx impacted states far from the border, polls suggest voters trust Trump more on the immigration - and that he’s doing much better with Latinos than in previous elections.
4. A lot more people don’t have a degree than do
Trump’s appeal to voters who feel forgotten and left behind has transformed US politics by turning traditional Democratic constituencies like union workers into Republicans and making the protection of American industry by tariffs almost the norm.
If he drives up turnout in rural and suburban parts of swing states this can offset the loss of moderate, college-educated Republicans.
5. He’s seen as a strong man in an unstable world
Trump’s detractors say he undermines America’s alliances by cosying up to authoritarian leaders.
The former president sees his unpredictability as a strength, however, and points out that no major wars started when he was in the White House.
Many Americans are angry, for different reasons, with the US sending billions to Ukraine and Israel - and think America is weaker under Biden.
A majority of voters, especially men who Trump has courted through podcasts like Joe Rogan's, see Trump as a stronger leader than Harris.
대선 주요 현안 여론조사
경제, 의료 정책, 대법원 임명, 외교 정책, 이민자 정책, 폭력범죄, 총기 소유, 낙태, 기후 변화, 인종 민족 불평등
Branded divide of blue and red stripes with white stars
Harris could win because…
1. She’s not Trump
Despite Trump’s advantages, he remains a deeply polarising figure.
In 2020, he won a record number of votes for a Republican candidate, but was defeated because seven million more Americans turned out to support Biden.
This time, Harris is playing up the fear factor about a Trump return. She’s called him a “fascist” and a threat to democracy, while vowing to move on from “drama and conflict”.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll in July indicated that four in five Americans felt the country was spiralling out of control. Harris will be hoping voters - especially moderate Republicans and independents - see her as a candidate of stability.
Visual guide - Harris and Trump's paths to victory
The moment I decided on my vote
2. She’s also not Biden
Democrats were facing near-certain defeat at the point Biden dropped out of the race. United in their desire to beat Trump, the party quickly rallied around Harris. With impressive speed from a standing start, she delivered a more forward-looking message that excited the base.
While Republicans have tied her to Biden’s more unpopular policies, Harris has rendered some of their Biden-specific attack lines redundant.
The clearest of these is age - polls consistently suggested voters had real concerns about Biden’s fitness for office. Now the race has flipped, and it is Trump who’s vying to become the oldest person to ever win the White House.
3. She's championed women's rights
This is the first presidential election since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade and the constitutional right to an abortion.
Voters concerned about protecting abortion rights overwhelmingly back Harris, and we’ve seen in past elections - notably the 2022 midterms - that the issue can drive turnout and have a real impact on the result.
This time around, 10 states, including the swing state Arizona, will have ballot initiatives asking voters how abortion should be regulated. This could boost turnout in Harris’s favour.
The historic nature of her bid to become the first female president may also strengthen her significant lead among women voters.
4. Her voters are more likely to show up
The groups Harris is polling more strongly with, such as the college-educated and older people, are more likely to vote.
Democrats ultimately perform better with high-turnout groups, while Trump has made gains with relatively low-turnout groups such as young men and those without college degrees.
Trump, for example, holds a huge lead among those who were registered but didn’t vote in 2020, according to a New York Times/Siena poll.
A key question, then, is whether they will show up this time.
5. She’s raised - and spent - more money
It’s no secret that American elections are expensive, and 2024 is on track to be the most expensive ever.
But when it comes to spending power - Harris is on top. She’s raised more since becoming the candidate in July than Trump has in the entire period since January 2023, according to a recent Financial Times analysis, which also noted that her campaign has spent almost twice as much on advertising.
This could play a role in a razor-tight race that will ultimately be decided by voters in swing states currently being bombarded by political ads.
A BBC banner graphic reads: "More on US election."
SIMPLE GUIDE: How to win the electoral college
EXPLAINER: What Harris or Trump would do in power
GLOBAL: How this election could change the world
IN PICS: Different lives of Harris and Trump
POLLS: Who is winning the race for the White House?
A BBC graphic advertises "US Election Unspun: The newsletter that cuts out the noise around the presidential race".
North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher makes sense of the race for the White House in his twice weekly US Election Unspun newsletter. Readers in the UK can sign up here. Those outside the UK can sign up here.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj0jq134y91o
10 reasons both Harris and Trump can be hopeful of victory
Polls suggest the race is deadlocked - but if one candidate pulls away, these factors could explain why.
www.bbc.com
박빙 head-to-head race
a razor-tight race
몇 가지 여론조사
Michigan Presidential Poll
Arizona’s Family/HighGround Poll shows that the presidential race is statistically tied in Arizona,
but Kamala Harris has a two-point lead over Donald Trump.
캐나다 cbc 보도.
2만 1461표 행방이 미 대선을 결정한다?
미국 인구의 0.0076%
