캐나다 인구변화 속도. 토론토 50년간 38% 증가. 210만에서 290만

한국 대도시도 이제 노령화가 본격화되었다. 

지난 200년간 해외 도시들의 형성, 성장, 지속, 쇠퇴, 변화, 부흥과 쇠락의 역사를 살펴볼 필요가 있다.

사람들은 어디서 왔다가 어디로 가는 것인가?

 

토론토 50년간 38% 증가. 210만에서 290만 

 

2016년 토론토 인구 통계

 

 

110만이 단독주택에 거주한다. 이들 중 53%는 자가 소유자이고, 47%는 월세자들이다.

개인 주택 거주자들의 26%는 콘도에서 산다.

140만명이 백인이 아닌 소수자 그룹에 속한다.

15세 이하 인구보다 65세 이상 인구가 더 많다. 

토론토 시민 평균 나이는 41세다.

 

 

Toronto has a large and diverse population. It is home to about 2.9 million people and is expected to continue to grow steadily. In 2017, the Province of Ontario projected that the city of Toronto could grow by 500,000 people in the next 25 years (see Figure 2).

 

 

 

Figure 2 – Toronto’s Population and Population Projections

 

Chart of the city of Toronto's population and projected population 1966-2041

Source – Census Canada and Ontario Population Projects Update, 2017-2041

 

 

In 2016, there were 46,320 people living in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area who identified as Indigenous. Of the people who identified as Indigenous, 60 percent were First Nations (North American Indian), 33 percent were Métis, and the remaining seven percent identified either as Inuk (Inuit) or as holding multiple or other Indigenous identities.

 

However, studies using different research methods to identify the city’s Indigenous population suggest the Census figures may under-represent the population.

 

For example, the Our Health Counts Toronto study cited a 2016 Indigenous population in the city that was between 34,000 to 69,000 people.

 

 

 

Demographic and housing facts:

 

Toronto’s population grew by 116,511 residents between 2011 and 2016, an increase of 4.5 percent.

80,805 new dwellings were added to the city’s housing stock between 2011 and 2016.

 

In 2016:

there were 1.1 million private households in Toronto. Of these, 53 percent of households owned their home, while 47 percent rented.

 

 

26 percent of private dwellings in Toronto were condominiums.

 

 

52 per cent or 1.4 million people belonged to a visible minority group– the first time this figure surpassed 50 per cent in Toronto.

 

 

For the first time, there were more people over the age of 65 in Toronto than people under the age of 15. The average Torontonian was 41 years old.

 

 

 

Toronto has too much housing despite overall population growth: report

 

Ryerson researchers found population declines or freezes in most neighbourhoods over the last 30 years.

 

 

TK

 

By TESS KALINOWSKIReal Estate Reporter

 

Mon., May 8, 2017

 

Don’t let the mushrooming condos downtown fool you. There is no housing shortage in Toronto, says new planning research out of Ryerson University.

 

The draft report, called “Protecting the Vibrancy of Residential Neighbourhoods,” shows that Toronto is over-housed, with a majority of 140 city neighbourhoods suffering from a stagnant or declining population over the last 30 years — along with most residentially zoned land restricted to single-family detached homes.

 

The report comes from recent urban planning grad Cheryll Case, along with Tetyana Bailey. When they matched the city’s zoning boundaries with recent Census information, the researchers found that 30 neighbourhoods actually declined in population and another 65 were essentially frozen, gaining less than one person per kilometre despite the city’s 7.6 per cent population growth between 2001 and 2016.

 

Read more:

 

Real estate boom threatens Parkdale rooming houses

 

Buyers, sellers brace for an unprecedented spring real estate season in Toronto region

 

While some areas of the city — notably downtown — have boomed, others such as Etobicoke and York are dwindling, as the average household size in Toronto shrunk from 5.22 people in 1986 to 3.85 in 2001.

 

“It’s concerning because demographically we’re changing as a city,” said Case, 22.

 

 

Why it’s so hard to get housing into Toronto’s ‘yellowbelt’ neighbourhoods — and how experts say it can be done

Mar. 16, 2019

 

 

“People are having fewer kids. It’s important to have development to reflect the needs and demands of the population today. Downtown you have a range of housing choices. You don’t get those choices in the inner suburbs

 

“All the condos that are built are mostly one- and two-bedrooms and that doesn’t really accommodate for families,” she said.

 

Case lives in a detached home near Kipling Ave. and Dixon Rd. in Etobicoke, where she grew up.

 

“We’re surrounded by seniors. They’re either widowed or the kids have moved out. These are detached bungalows . . . Two families could live in these houses essentially,” she said.

 

 

The report also points out that a lot of single-family detached homes in Toronto have been levelled and rebuilt — most of the time the new structures are actually bigger than the houses they replace.

 

In 68 of the 140 neighbourhoods, houses that were rebuilt were taller than the preceding homes. Twenty-seven neighbourhoods featured replacement housing that was smaller and 45 neighbourhoods retained the original homes.

 

The report found household sizes don’t vary much between detached homes and other types of housing such as apartments, townhouses or duplexes, so some people are living with far more space than other families.

 

Meantime schools in the inner suburbs are declining in enrolment and seniors can’t age in their own neighbourhoods because they don’t have downsizing options close to home, Case said.

 

That’s a result of long-standing zoning introduced during the sprawl years before government recognized the value of denser development, said Case’s mentor Sean Galbraith, who runs a private planning business.

 

Most of the city has the highly restrictive zoning around residential detached housing, so you can’t build other kinds of homes in those areas, he said.

 

Case’s study supports the need for policies that would unlock the restrictions on building other housing such as townhomes, apartments and triplexes in suburban neighbourhoods.

 

“If you wanted to do the gentlest form of density there is — taking one unit and making it into two — you basically can’t. Zoning and the Official Plan restricts you from being able to do that in just under 40 per cent of the land mass of the city or 62 per cent of the residential areas,” he said.

 

Galbraith says the capacity for neighbourhood change is concentrated in a few older areas of the city such as Parkdale or the Annex, where there are long-standing histories of multi-family housing.

 

“The majority of the residential areas are overprotected from change. And that puts change pressure on parts of the city that are under-protected from change,” he said.

 

But Galbraith doesn’t blame city planners for Toronto’s difficult retreat from the postwar sprawl era. He says the city’s planning department is “chronically under-resourced.”

 

Planners have to pick their battles so the city is focused on avenues such as Eglinton, where new transit is being built along with more midrise housing, said Galbraith.

 

“That’s great but it only solves part of the problem (in those neighbourhoods),” he said. “If you don’t want to live in a midrise building, you don’t have any options, you’re now in the house market.

 

“Essentially everybody in the housing market is stuck where they are. Everybody who is fortunate enough to have a house, instead of moving on to a different unit that is better suited to their needs, they’re just renovating an existing house,” Galbraith said.

 

 

 

 

Real estate boom threatens Parkdale rooming houses

 

 

 

Homes of more than 800 people under immediate threat, according to a new study by the Parkdale Neighbourhood Land Trust.

 

 

Emily Mathieu

By Emily Mathieu

 

Housing Reporter

 

Sat., May 6, 2017

Paul Snider has everything he needs in Parkdale, except for housing security.

 

“We are hanging on by a thread,” said Snider, 42, who lives in a rooming house in the rapidly gentrifying neighbourhood. “I have this feeling that in 10 years Parkdale is going to be unrecognizable and I won’t be here and I want to be here.”

 

Snider moved to Parkdale three years ago and has “fallen in love” with a community where he has access to the programs and services he needs to remain fed, feel well and still have enough money to keep a roof over his head.

 

“I can survive in a way that is not completely degrading,” said Snider who relies on Ontario Disability Support Payments, in part, he explains candidly, because of mental health issues.

 

Snider’s housing and the homes of more than 800 people in similar properties are under immediate threat, according to a new study by the Parkdale Neighbourhood Land Trust.

 

The report, entitled “No Room for Unkept Promises, Parkdale Rooming House Study” reviews the impact real estate speculation, upscaling and conversion is having on rooming houses and similar properties.

 

Paul Snider, 42, lives in a rooming house. “Rooming houses are essential to a person like me. We are hanging on by a thread."

 

Snider was part of a community-based research team, hired by the trust, who surveyed Parkdale, knocking on doors and speaking with owners and tenants to identify and count buildings and occupants. The entire research team also scoured city records and spoke to landowners, city officials and area support workers to determine how buildings were being used.

 

The results show that in Parkdale alone there are 198 “rooming houses, bachelorette buildings, community non-profit buildings and possible rooming houses,” that fit that criteria and are capable of holding as many 2,715 people. Bachelorettes are what are sometimes called micro-apartments.

 

 

 

Almost 60 of those properties were at risk of being sold or converted into higher cost housing, or repurposed, meaning up to 818 people could lose their homes, over the next few years.

 

To preserve the units, the land trust is proposing a 10-year plan with tougher tools to slow or stop evictions, the acquisition of properties by non-profit groups and partners who would run the buildings, including the city, developing more affordable housing and policies and planning tools that support development, but not at the risk of pushing out marginalized people. They also want strict safety and cleanliness standards and more oversight, or better tracking, by the city.

 

“We are concerned, in private hands, that the stock is not secure, so we think there is a unique opportunity as the sector transitions to bring at-risk, private rooming houses into non-profit ownership so we can stabilize sites, improve and restore the housing, and assure that this affordable housing will be available in perpetuity,” said Joshua Barndt, development co-ordinator with the land trust.

 

Barndt explained that bachelorette apartments, which are particularly at risk, came to be because city council recognized landlords were already renting out the tiny spaces and rezoning would offer tenants more protection, both in terms of oversight and through the preservation of low-cost housing.

 

“What the city did not anticipate is that in 2017 the real estate market would be so hot that these bachelorette units would be attractive to middle and higher income renters,” he said.

 

Barndt said since September, 15 properties that served as rooming houses have gone up for sale. Over the past 10 years, he said, 31 have been vacated, sold, shut down, or repurposed.

 

Leslie Miller, 61, lives in a supportive housing building. “This neighbourhood is vital, for people who are marginalized … they want to stay in their own community where they have socialization.”

 

The proposal will be presented at City Hall next Friday, to staff from multiple divisions, including shelter, support and housing administration, the affordable housing office and city planning.

 

Councillor Gord Perks, who reviewed the findings on Wednesday, said any proposals on how to preserve low-cost housing in Parkdale are welcome.

 

“What we know for sure is the private real estate market is not only failing to provide new deeply affordable housing it is also gobbling up deeply affordable housing,” said Perks.

 

“We are going to need some blend of public and social housing providers if we are going to keep Toronto available to people in all income groups.”

 

As part of a pilot project, the land trust is exploring the potential purchase of a 17-unit building, in collaboration with the Parkdale Activity-Recreation Centre (PARC).

 

One possible scenario, if the project goes through, could be PARC leasing the building and overseeing operations and the land trust buying and preserving the property.

 

Executive director Victor Willis said the “last thing” Toronto needs is to lose affordable housing and the 2,700 units must be protected.

 

“It is enormous for Parkdale but it is enormous for the city because there is nowhere for these people to go,” said Willis. “But they will be leaving and that is a problem, unless there is a strategy.”

 

The properties already are a public investment, Barndt points out.

 

Tenants on Ontario Disability Support Payments received a maximum of $479 to use towards rent and people on Ontario Works received up to $374, in 2016, according to the report.

 

If three out of four tenants in the properties surveyed paid that in rent it would add up to more than $650,000 per month, or $7.8 million each year. A better estimate, based on rental rates, is about $500 to $800 per month, or about $9.5 million, the report states.

 

“It seems fiscally responsible that public investments in affordable housing generate long-term impact and be recycled,” said Barndt.

 

It is also far less expensive to keep people off the street. In Toronto, it costs $75 per night to provide a shelter bed, or $2,250 per month, according to information provided by the city to the land trust and included in the report.

 

Lynne Sky, 67, lives in the same property as Snider and is on the community-based research team.

 

“There has to be some kind of place for us in the middle, for all of us to come together because you cannot push the most marginalized any further than they are already stretched,” said Sky.

 

Even if the city committed tomorrow to building enough housing to replace what could be lost it would be years before it was habitable, said Sky.

 

“I can’t imagine how many people are going to die between now and then. The fastest, most cohesive way to house the most people and get services to them is the very form that the land trust is suggesting.”

 

Trevor Hardy, 48, lives in a subsidized apartment. “I love my apartment. I go home, I feel safe. I feel secure … I see a lot of homeless people out there, members of the community, who are not so fortunate.”

 

Working with Snider and Sky was Trevor Hardy, 48, who lives in a one-bedroom apartment he was connected to through the city’s Streets to Homes program.

 

Hardy has lived in rooming houses and said safe, clean and stable housing has allowed him to become self-sufficient, volunteer and plan for his future, possibly helping people obtain housing.

 

“I see a lot of homeless people out there, members of the community, who are not so fortunate and their health is really deteriorating from being out in the elements.”

 

He wants security for everybody in Parkdale, a community he describes as vital as an artery.

 

“It is a lifeline.”

 

 

 

 

Buyers, sellers brace for an unprecedented spring real estate season in Toronto region

Buyers can expect mad competition for homes to continue.

 

Tess Kalinowski

 

By Tess Kalinowski

 

 

Real Estate Reporter

Fri., April 14, 2017

 

 

Pity the poor house hunter seeking shelter in a spring real estate season like none in memory in the Toronto Region.

 

Spring is traditionally the hottest season when it comes to home sales. But this year’s soaring prices and frenzied bidding wars come with an additional layer of anxiety as governments, realtors and consumers grapple with how to best respond to high-level warnings that a Toronto housing bubble is about to pop.

 

Buyers

 

Buyers can expect the mad competition for homes to continue with most selling for over-asking prices amid multiple offers, realtors say.

 

“It’s going to be the busiest spring we’ve ever seen and, unless there’s a significant increase in the number of listings and a significant decrease in the number of buyers, we’re not going to see things change,” Andrew Harrild of Condos.ca says.

 

He discourages buyers from over-extending their finances, but Harrild says he lets his clients know they have to be prepared to do what it takes to win a bidding war or they will be making offers indefinitely.

 

Read more:

Wynne to meet mayors on housing affordability

 

Bank seeing evidence of speculation in Toronto housing market

 

Most buyers will make at least five offers before they are successful — but 19 or 20 offers isn’t unusual, Tarik Gidamy of TheRedPin says.

 

He predicts there is more disappointment and buyer frustration ahead this spring.

 

“The consumers’ mentality is going to continue, if not get wilder, because the spring is typically when inventory comes out of the woodwork. I think it’s going to be a big matchup of supply and demand and increased tension,” Gidamy says.

 

“On the front lines, a majority of my agents are losing offers every night. Buyers are getting frustrated every night. Home sellers are clapping and popping champagne every night,” he said.

 

 

If a buyer needs to sit back for a month and watch how regulators respond to the overheated market, that probably won’t make any difference in their ability to buy, says Desmond Brown, a Beaches-area Royal LePage agent.

 

But delaying the purchase a year is another matter, he recently told clients relocating from Australia. They wanted to rent. Brown encouraged them to buy.

 

“If you wait a year, you’ll never get into the market,” he told them.

 

That is because the average price of all homes in the Toronto area — including condos, townhomes, semi-detached and detached houses — was $916,567 last month — $228,556 higher than a year ago.

 

That is a 33-per-cent year-over-year increase, according to statistics from the Toronto Real Estate Board.

 

Sellers

 

Home for sale at 181 Palmerston Ave., Toronto. Asking price is $1,088,888. Questions and trepidation hang over Toronto's spring real estate market.

 

The Toronto area remains a sellers’ market, but the board did report an increase in re-sale homes listed last month.

 

Listings rose 62 per cent year-over-year the first week of April — the third consecutive week that resale home listings were up, according to Leslieville’s Realosophy brokerage.

 

“Definitely a little frightening,” says Realosophy’s president John Pasalis, who thinks that government talk about cooling the market may be prompting homeowners to sell.

 

Even in the traditionally hot spring market, that’s a sharp increase, he says.

 

“In a busy spring market we might get a total of 11,000 freehold homes listed. If listings continue at the current rate, we might have 16,000 freehold listings by the end of April,” he says. “But who knows if they’ll keep up.”

 

In the Markham-Stouffville area, Re/Max agent Peter Kiriazopoulos says the recent uptick in homes may already be having an impact on sellers.

 

For months, most Toronto-area real estate listings have encouraged competition among buyers by providing a specific date on which sellers will consider offers.

 

But when there are a number of similar properties available in the same area, there is no point in sellers holding off buyers to an offer date.

 

Single-family detached houses are popular in his area, Kiriazopoulos says. But in the last 10 to 14 days, some homes haven’t been attracting multiple offers. Instead of selling at the asking price, sellers are relisting at a higher price, he said.

 

Regulators

 

Home for sale at 2401 Doulton Pl., Mississauga. Asking price is $8,880,000. Questions and trepidation hang over Toronto's spring real estate market.

 

Many realtors say that Premier Kathleen Wynne’s plan to target real estate speculators to cool the market is the right move.

 

But the Liberal government acknowledges that won’t provide any immediate relief to the bidding wars and bully offers that have thwarted consumers’ ownership ambitions.

 

Earlier this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz warned that the Toronto area housing market isn’t sustainable. Moody’s Investment Services suggested that the Canadian housing market invites comparisons to the U.S. housing crisis of a decade ago.

 

On Tuesday, federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau will discuss the situation with his provincial counterpart Charles Sousa and Toronto Mayor John Tory. They will likely talk about a foreign buyers’ tax and a vacant home tax that the British Columbia government and Vancouver used to stem housing prices in that city.

 

 

While there has been a lot of concern about foreign investment in the Toronto market, Pasalis thinks a lot of the speculation here is actually a result of ordinary people wanting a piece of the action.

 

“People are buying 100 per cent on debt. They are refinancing their homes. They don’t care if they are cash-flow negative. People just think they’re going to make money. Everybody wants another property. I’m talking friends, aunts,” he says.

 

Gidamy agrees the government needs to crack down on speculators. But he also thinks the province should re-examine some of the land-use policies restricting where developers can build and the city should hasten approvals to encourage construction of more purpose-built rentals.

 

Meantime, he says, “Money is cheap so people give the money to their kids or buy some pre-construction investments.”

 

Andrea Jolly, broker at TheRedPin Mortgage, doesn’t expect interest rates to rise until late in the year, and those would be small, incremental increases.

 

While last year’s tighter mortgage stress testing may have limited some first-time buyers, “anecdotally, their parents are giving them money, they’re getting co-signers, they’re living with others. They’re actually getting more creative,” she says.

 

Condo specialist Harrild agrees that rates would need to rise substantially — at least a couple of percentage points — to tamp down consumer buying.

 

“If you go from getting a 5-year fixed-rate mortgage right now for 2.49 per cent and it goes up half a point overnight to 2.99 per cent that’s still a fantastic rate. I just don’t see interest rates climbing quick enough,” he says.

 

Home for sale at 266 Indian Rd., Toronto. Asking price is $3,695,000. Questions and trepidation hang over Toronto's spring real estate market.

 

Harrild is among those who believe that the number of foreign transactions is closer to 20 per cent than the 4.9 per cent published by the Toronto Real Estate Board early this year.

 

He doesn’t see a downside in taxing foreign transactions as Vancouver did last year.

 

“I’m an immigrant and I’ve got no problem with people coming here and investing and contributing to the economy. What I do have a problem with is people investing their money here purely from a speculation standpoint. They’re not contributing, they’re just inflating pricing for everyone else,” he says.

 

“If you’re simply here to dump money and have your unit sitting empty for the next five years, that’s creating a huge problem,” Harrild says.

 

Brown, a former reporter, isn’t convinced. He says the best news he’s heard lately is Ottawa’s commitment to a national housing database that would more thoroughly delve into buyer and transaction profiles, including demographics on foreign ownership.

 

At this point, he says, he doesn’t know the level of foreign investment in Toronto.

 

He listed a detached backsplit in the once-modest Yonge St. and Sheppard Ave. neighbourhood. It had belonged to the same family for more than 60 years and it attracted 16 offers.

 

“All of the bidders were either of Chinese, Asian or Iranian descent. I have no idea if they were Canadian citizens or foreigners. All I know is that the house sold for $400,000 over asking,” he said.

 

That kind of scenario is a symptom of Toronto “becoming the international city we’re meant to be” rather than a housing bubble, Harrild says.

 

“Prices are a reflection of that. That being said, do I think another 20-per-cent increase in the next six months is healthy? No I don’t,” he says.

 

But, he adds, “I don’t think the bottom’s going to fall out of the market. There’s too much demand for that from real people with real money. It’s not all speculation.”