한국정치/북한_DPRK2018. 5. 21. 19:40

존 볼턴 (John Bolton)에게 조언을 해주고 있는 매쓔 프리드먼. 

NSC 에 구직자가 500명 정도 몰리는데, 존 볼턴이 임명하는 권한이 있는 모양이다. 그런데 NSC 를 훤히 잘 알고 있는 프리드먼이 인사권까지 간여하고 있다. 


필리핀 마르코스 대통령과도 밀접한 연관이 있는 프리드먼이다. 미국의 정치 브로커, 로비스트들의 실체 중에 한 인물. 이런 자들이 한국 북한 미래를 좌지우지 하려들다니.38선 시대도 아니고.

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Bolton relied on ex-lobbyist as he staffed NSC


Matthew Freedman, who currently runs a global consulting firm, had a hand in shaping the National Security Council.





John Bolton, President Donald Trump's national security adviser, has had a long working relationship with the former lobbyist. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo

As he prepared to start his job as President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton relied on the advice of a longtime colleague — Matthew Freedman, a consultant and former lobbyist with decades of experience in foreign policy.



But while Freedman may have been a trusted hand, he also came on with a checkered past, having worked for now-indicted former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort and, more recently, getting fired from the Trump transition team for reportedly using his global consulting firm email for transition work.



Still, Bolton leaned on Freedman earlier this year, and multiple people familiar with the matter said Freedman played a central role meeting with potential job applicants for the National Security Council before Bolton officially started.



Some former foreign policy officials say such an arrangement is disturbing, and that an outsider — with his own global consulting business — should not have been shaping the agency that handles the most sensitive foreign policy matters.



“If Freedman is screening career officials for NSC jobs, I find that inappropriate,” Loren DeJonge Schulman, who was senior adviser to former national security adviser Susan Rice, told POLITICO. “If Freedman is simply acting as an outside proxy for Bolton and has no intention of being in government, period, it’s bizarre.”

A source familiar with the situation denied that Freedman played any formal role and described his meetings with job candidates as closer to “listening sessions” than interviews.



Robert Palladino, a spokesperson for the NSC, confirmed that Freedman and Charles Kupperman, another Bolton friend who has joined him at the NSC, helped him weigh job applicants after H.R. McMaster was ousted following repeated policy clashes with Trump and other aides.


“Ambassador Bolton received over 500 résumés from applicants seeking to join his team on the National Security Council,” Palladino said. “Consulting with trusted colleagues, such as Mr. Freedman and Dr. Kupperman, not only makes practical sense, it also makes strategic sense.”


Freedman declined to comment for the record.


While there does not appear to be anything illegal about Freedman’s informal work helping Bolton, the prominent advisory role of a former lobbyist and current consultant highlights how the Trump government has failed to distance itself from politically connected people with foreign and corporate ties, despite the president’s repeated promises to “drain the swamp” of such figures.


Freedman has proven to be an especially notable example.


He was brought back to help Bolton after getting fired from the Trump transition team, where he was specifically focused on the NSC.


Freedman was ousted from the team shortly after the election for using his consulting firm email address to set up meetings with other transition officials, which some on the team viewed as an attempt to boost his consulting business, according to one person familiar with the matter.


“It is his style of how he does business,” said a different person, who worked on the transition. “I’ve never understood how he is able to pull that off. … He keeps his hands in lots of different stuff. That is his value proposition.”


Freedman’s sprawling business interests also landed him a role in another controversy, after it was revealed that he helped plan a trip to Australia for Scott Pruitt, the embattled administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, who has drawn scrutiny for his extensive ties to lobbyists, among other controversies.


Freedman has a long history as a lobbyist and consultant working with foreign governments. He cut his teeth working for Manafort in the 1980s, lobbying for the governments of the Bahamas, Barbados, Dominican Republic, St. Lucia, Nigeria and Peru. He notably represented dictator Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines.


Prior to joining Manafort’s firm, Freedman worked at the U.S. Agency for International Development as an international development adviser. Later, he was Secretary of State Colin Powell’s transition director for USAID, the Overseas Private Investment Corporation and the United States Trade and Development Agency.


James Carafano, who worked with Freedman on the transition team, told POLITICO that Freedman has extensive experience that made him a logical choice to help set up the NSC.


“He knows a lot about how the government personnel works, he knows a lot about how different NSCs are run,” Carafano said of Freedman. “He is an encyclopedia of how government works. He knows everybody; he’s a handy guy to have around.”


Freedman also has had a long working relationship with Bolton.


Freedman worked with Bolton at USAID and was an adviser to Bolton when he was Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, as well as ambassador to the United Nations. He was also listed as a director at Bolton’s Foundation for American Security and Freedom, according to a 2016 filing.



While Freedman may have had the subject expertise, it’s not clear whether he took efforts to wall off his recent advisory role to the NSC from his consulting business — Global Impact Inc., which provides advice strategic advice to both the public and private sector.


He also is no longer registered as a lobbyist, which means there’s little visibility into his exact business interests.


"These are people who are going to be responsible for our national security in high-ranking positions," said Richard Painter, former chief ethics lawyer for President George W. Bush and now a Democratic candidate for Senate in Minnesota. "They are being screened by someone who has private clients, which could include foreign governments. We have no idea who his clients are; the risk is obvious."


And one of Freedman’s business ties — his work as treasurer of the American Australian Council — has already drawn scrutiny.


Emails sent in 2017 between Freedman and Millan Hupp, a scheduling official at the EPA, reveal that he played an important role in planning a trip for Pruitt to Australia, after an email connection from Rick Smotkin, a former lobbyist for Comcast. (The trip was eventually canceled.)


In follow-up exchanges between Hupp and Freedman in July 2017, Freedman offered “additional thoughts on scheduling” and advice for Pruitt’s talking points. In one email, Freedman suggested a strategy for how the administration should address questions about climate change. “While climate change will not be on the agenda, expect it to come up and we need to be able to say we ‘agree to disagree’ as good friends,” Freedman wrote.


Some of his suggestions were more tourism-focused. “You can take a 15 minute ride to Bondi Beach from Circular Quay and walk as long as you want on a long and winding paved walking trail along the sea...I can send some photos if useful to visualize,” he wrote in another email. “Dinner? Could be at a traditional German place in The Rock, if the Administrator likes German, but I’ll come up with other options.”


Barry Jackson, president of the nonprofit, told POLITICO that Freedman resigned from the council after media reports about his trip-planning on Pruitt’s behalf.


Nancy Cook, Eliana Johnson and Eric Geller contributed to this report.




Matthew C. Freedman

















Matthew Freedman serves as CEO of Global Impact, Inc, providing both the public and private sectors global strategic advisory services and developing and implementing innovative technology solutions. He has thirty years of experience leading development programs and projects overseas. He has also served as an Operating Partner at a NY-based private equity firm.


A national security and economic development expert, Matthew has advised ten USG agencies.  In 2001, he served as the White House Transition Director reporting to the Secretary of State for the Agency for International Development, Trade and Development Agency, and Overseas Private Investment Corporation. Later, he was appointed Deputy to the US Ambassador to the United Nations, Special Advisor to the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, and Counselor, Bureau of Verification, Compliance and Implementation at the State DepartmentAt the Defense Department he served as Senior Advisor, Department of the Navy.  He was also appointed to the Advisory Board for Africa of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation.


Mr. Freedman has worked with numerous US and multinational corporations around the world in key sectors: consumer products, energy, information technology, cyber-security and telecommunication, global services, entertainment and media, capital markets/finance, trade, and defense/homeland security.


Mr. Freedman served as Chief of Party for numerous global efforts on behalf of the World Bank, the USG, and the private sector.  He is also a recognized international health expert having advised the USG/Gates Foundation’s Global Alliance for Vaccinations and Immunizations (GAVI), the World Health Organization’s Rollback Malaria Program, and the US Government’s flagship international child health program, BASICS II.


A native of New York, Mr. Freedman holds a Master’s Degree with Honors in International Affairs from Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., and an undergraduate degree from Kenyon College.  In 2002 he received the Department of State’s “Superior Honor Award.” He also has studied at the University of York, England, and The Hague Academy of International Law in the Netherlands.


Posted by NJ원시

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정책비교/국제정치2018. 2. 1. 04:54

보수파인 빅터차가 주한 미대사로 임명되었다가 낙마했다. 트럼프 강경파와 빅터차의 갈등과 그 이유를 알 수 있는 빅터차 기고문이다.  

Opinions


Victor Cha: Giving North Korea a ‘bloody nose’ carries a huge risk to Americans

 



김정은 목표는 핵무기 기술과 핵무기를 다른 국가와 비-국가 형태 조직들에게 판매한다. (빅터 차 인식) 


2차 세계대전 이후 미국이 주도하고 있는 국제정치질서를 깨뜨리고자 하는 깡패 rogue actors 들을 선동할 것이다. 만약 김정은 목표가 성공한다면, 이것은 미국에게 진짜 전례없는 위협이 될 것이다. 

(*빅터 차의 인식: 북한의 목표는 미국 본토 위협과 미국의 아시아 동맹국가 포기) 


그러나 트럼프 행정부 (강경파) 내 몇 강경파가 제안하는 ‘예방적 군사 공격 preventive military strike’은 해법이 아니다.


빅터 차 주장 “전쟁을 벌이지 않고 북한 위협을 막아낼 강력한 군사적 선택이 있다. 전쟁 발발시 수십만은 아니더라도 수만명의 미국인들이 죽을 수 있다. 



빅터 차 견해 반대론자 주장 “ 사상자들이 발생하고 한반도에서 전쟁이 일어나더라도, 그 정도 위험은 미국 이익을 위해 감수해야 한다” 


강경파 ‘전쟁 불사론, 전쟁 이익론’에 대한 빅터 차 반론 


“미국이 북한을 공습한다고 하면, 그것은 북한의 미사일 개발과 핵무기 프로그램의 속도를 늦출 뿐이다. 이것들은 지하 깊이 있는데다 정확히 위치를 알지 못하고, 벙커-폭발 폭탄으로는 날려버릴 수 없다. 또한 미국 공습은 핵무기 확산을 중단시키지 못하고, 오히려 더 악화시킬 것이다. 북한이 미국의 공습을 받으면, 미국에 보복하기 위해 반-미 세력들에게 핵무기와 미사일 기술들을 수출할 것이다.

 

트럼프 강경파들의 의견에 대해 그 심정은 이해한다. 


강경파 주장 “북한을 선제 타격하면, 북한이 비핵화 협상 테이블에 나올 수 밖에 없다” “북한이 군사 보복전을 벌인다면, 미국은 그 피해를 최소화하고 금융 시장의 붕괴를 예방할 수 있다는 ‘에스컬레이션 사다리’를 사용할 수 있다 ”  


이런 주장을 하게 된 근거는 “미국이 김정은의 코를 납작하게 해놔야 한다. 그렇지 않으면 김정은 핵무기 개발을 중단시킬 수 없다”


그러나 중요한 점이 하나 있다. 이러한 강경파의 ‘희망사항’은 논리적 근거를 제시해야 한다.


만약 미국의 군사공습 없이는 김정은의 핵개발을 저지시킬 수 없다고 믿는다면, 북한이 미국의 공습을 받고 난 이후에 김정은이 보복조치를 취하는 것을 저지시킬 수 있다고 어떻게 믿겠는가? 


김정은이 예측불가능하고, 충동적이고, 거의 미친거나 다름없다면, 미국이 어떻게 ‘승강 사다리  escalation ladder’을 통제할 수 있겠는가? 그 승강 사다리도 적들이 합리적으로 ‘전쟁 억제’와 ‘신호들’을 이해해야만 작동하기 때문이다

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강경파의 전쟁 불사론의 또 하나의 근거는, “미국 본토보다는 한반도에서 미국인의 사상자들 발생시키는 게 더 낫다” 이다.


한국에 23만명, 일본에 9만명 미국 시민들이 있다.  이 많은 숫자를 대피시키기가 힘들다. 왜냐하면 북한의 포 공격, 미사일 공격, 화학무기 사용으로 인해 미국시민들은 전쟁이 끝날 때까지 숨어 있어야 하기 때문이다.


이 인구는 미국 피츠버그나 신시내티 인구와 맞먹는다. 


미치광이이고 제어가 불가능한 김정은이 미국의 군사력을 보고 합리적으로 끌려 나올 것이라는 전제 하에서, 미국 시민들을 위험에 빠뜨릴 것인가? 


빅터 차 주장 “북한 정권이 핵무기를 포기하도록 국제적인 지역적인 압박을 꾸준히 가하는 것이다”  이러한 대안적인 강압 전략(coercive strategy)의 효과는 ‘제한적 공습’ 효과와 맞먹을 뿐만 아니라, 아군 피해 비용도 줄일 수 있다. 


강압 전략은 4가지이다.

 

첫째, 트럼프 행정부는 북한 제재를 더 성공적으로 수행하기 위해서, 유엔 가입 국가들의 동맹을 강화해야 한다. 

 

두번째 미국은 동맹국 일본과 한국과 함께 무장을 더 강화해야 한다. 그 방식으로는 통합 미사일 방어 체계 구축, 정보 공유, 반-잠수함 전투, 북한에 대한 공습 능력 “an attack on one is an attack on all” 

 

세번째 미국은 북한이 미사일과 핵무기 기술들을 해외로 이전시키는 것을 막기 위해 북한 주변에 ‘해양 연맹’을 구축해야 한다. 


네번째, 미국은 군사 작전 선택도 준비하고 있어야 한다. 만약 북한이 공격을 해오면 군사적 대응이 필요하다. 그러나 핵무기를 불러올 ‘선제 공습’ 방식은 선택하지 않아야 한다. 


이 방식은 아직 트럼프 행정부가 실천하지 않고 있다.


이 ‘강압전략’은 북한의 경화 (금과 달러로 교환되는 화폐)를 감소시킬 것이고, 북한의 무모한 군사 행동을 저지하고, 아시아 국가들과 동맹을 강화하고, 북한 정권을 도와주는 사람들의 비용을 증가시킬 것이다. 


지속가능하고 장기 경쟁 전략 (강압 전략)은 미국의 힘을 과시할 수 있고, 미국 적들의 약점을 파고 들고, 수십만 미국 시민들의 생명을 보호할 수 있다.


출처:


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/victor-cha-giving-north-korea-a-bloody-nose-carries-a-huge-risk-to-americans/2018/01/30/43981c94-05f7-11e8-8777-2a059f168dd2_story.html?utm_term=.f3c10bd5f3b2

 


Posted by NJ원시

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