정책비교/의료2020. 1. 31. 12:24

중국인민일보, 2003년 사스(중증 급성 호흡기 증후) 코로나 바이러스를 발견한 중난산(钟南山) 박사 견해를 실었다. 중난산 박사는 1936년생으로 흉부질환 권위자임. 

(중국 인민 일보 기사 요약)

1) 2020년 신종 코로나 바이러스 향후 전개 : 앞으로 7일~10일 까지 최고 고비를 맞이할 것이다. 그 이후 진정될 수 있다. 

지금 가장 최선 방법은 두 가지인데, '조기 발견'과 '조기 격리 조치'이다. 

2) 2003년 사스는 6개월 이상 지속되었으나, 신종 코로나 바이러스는 그 정도 길지는 않을 것이다.

3) 신종 코로나 바이러스에 대한 백신 개발은 앞으로 3~4개월 걸릴 예정

4) 2020년 신종 코로나 바이러스는 2017년 박쥐에서 발견된 바이러스와 상동 (相同 homology)를 띠고 있다.

그리고 신종 코로나 바이러스( the 2019-nCoV )는 야생동물로 추정되는 제 2 (중간단계) 호스트를 거쳐 형성되었다.

5) 환자 현황: 중국 30개 지역에서 신종 코로나 바이러스로 인한 폐렴 환자 숫자는 4515명, 이 중 106명 사망.

6) 우한 시에 현재 긴급 임시 병원을 건설한 목적은, 병원 안에서 감염을 막기 위한 것이다.


중난산 박사는 전국민이 협력해서 우한 시를 지원해야 한다고 제안했다. 


기사 출처:


http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0129/c90000-9652302.html



Novel coronavirus outbreak may reach peak in one week or about 10 days: expert

(Xinhua)    09:55, January 29, 2020

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak may reach its peak in one week or around 10 days, renowned Chinese respiratory expert Zhong Nanshan said Tuesday.


By the end of Monday, 4,515 confirmed cases of pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus had been reported in 30 provincial-level regions. A total of 106 people had died of the disease, according to the National Health Commission.


GUANGZHOU, Jan. 28 -- The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak may reach its peak in one week or around 10 days, renowned Chinese respiratory expert Zhong Nanshan said Tuesday in an exclusive interview with Xinhua.


"It is very difficult to definitely estimate when the outbreak reaches its peak. But I think in one week or about 10 days, it will reach the climax and then there will be no large-scale increases," Zhong said.


Zhong is the head of a national team of experts set up for the control and prevention of the novel coronavirus-caused pneumonia and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering.




Renowned Chinese respiratory scientist Zhong Nanshan (钟南山)receives an interview with Xinhua in Guangzhou, south China's Guangdong Province, Jan. 28, 2020. (Xinhua/Liu Dawei)


"There are two keys to tackling the epidemic: early detection and early isolation. They are the most primitive and most effective methods," he said.


Zhong said fever and weakness are the typical symptoms of the novel coronavirus infection for the majority of patients.


Ten to 14 days is a sound period for isolation and observation: When the incubation period ends, those who fall sick will get timely treatment and those who do not will be just fine.


He suggested that hospitals should be staffed with not only infectious disease specialists, but also specialists in treating severe cases to better save patients.


By the end of Monday, 4,515 confirmed cases of pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus had been reported in 30 provincial-level regions. A total of 106 people had died of the disease, according to the National Health Commission.





Aerial photo taken on Jan. 28, 2020 shows the construction site of Huoshenshan Hospital in Wuhan, central China's Hubei Province. The construction of Huoshenshan Hospital, a makeshift hospital for treating patients infected with the novel coronavirus, is underway in Wuhan. (Xinhua/Xiao Yijiu)


Among the total, Hubei Province in central China reported a total of 2,714 confirmed cases of the pneumonia caused by the virus. Wuhan, the provincial capital, is the center of the outbreak.


Epidemiologically, the novel coronavirus is homologous to the virus discovered in a type of bat in 2017, said Zhong, adding that the 2019-nCoV probably has an intermediate host that may be a certain kind of wild animal.


"The SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) outbreak lasted about six months, but I don't believe the novel coronavirus outbreak would last that long," said Zhong.


The country has taken a series of powerful measures, especially early detection and early isolation. "We have sufficient confidence in preventing a major outbreak or a recurrence as long as the two measures are in place, although we still need to conduct much scientific research," he said.


Noting that a key for Wuhan is how to reduce infections inside hospitals, Zhong said he supported the construction of makeshift hospitals in the city to control the infectious disease.




Members of a medical team heading for Wuhan of Hubei Province board the plane in Xining, northwest China's Qinghai Province, Jan. 28, 2020. A team comprised of 135 medical workers from Qinghai left for Wuhan on Tuesday to aid the novel coronavirus control efforts there. (Xinhua/Zhang Long)


Zhong said the activation of top-level public health emergency response was aimed at reducing the chance of infection.


The vaccine development may need three to four months or even longer, said Zhong. "Now scientists are speeding up research of neutralizing antibodies of the virus, but it takes time."


"With help from across the country, Wuhan, a heroic city, will pull through," Zhong said. 


(Reporting by Wang Pan, Xiao Sisi, Li Laifang, Lou Chen, Cui Enhui)

Posted by NJ원시

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정책비교/의료2020. 1. 30. 11:42

온라인 판 중국 인민일보를  잠시 봤는데,  2002년 사스 때와는 확연히 다릅니다. 신속하게 코로나 바이러스 뉴스를 게재하고 있음. 2002년 사스 발생으로 800명 사망자를 낸 중국으로서는 이번 코로나 바이러스 확산을 막지 못하면 전 국가적 수치라고 여기고 있음. 


20년째 중국에서 거주하고 있는 도이체 벨레 컬럼니스트 프랑크 지렌 의견 소개:


친중적인 보도일 수 있겠지만, 요지는 다음과 같다. 2002년 사스 발생 때와 달리, 중국 정부가 코로나 바이러스 피해상황을 신속하게 보도하고 있고, 기업과 중국인들도 중국 정부와 협력하고 있다. 온라인에 퍼진 박쥐탕 사진은 서태평양 팔라우 휴양지에서 촬영된 것이다. 코로나 바이러스 진원지는 아직 규명되지 않았다. 중국 정부가 이번 위기를 극복하면 보건 위생, 동물 복지, 검열완화 등이 개선될 것이다. 



[요약]  

[1] 중국정부 태도 변화:  2002년 사스 때는 은폐, 2020년 코로나 바이러스 위기는 공개

시진핑은 ‘심각한 도전’이라고 선언. 리커창 수상은 코로나 바이러스 전염병 규모를 측정하기 위해 마스크를 쓰고 직접 우한을 방문.


[2] 중국 정부 즉각적 조치 

5천600만명이 격리수용, 항공 철도 장거리 버스 교통수단이 14개 도시에서 운행 중지

민심의 동요없이 중국인들이 정부의 강력한 조치를 수용.

코로나 바이러스 피해가 가장 심한 후베이 지방에 1억 천만 달러 긴급 조치.

수백명의 의사와 의료진이 후베이 지방으로 급파. 

중국 설 연휴도 연장되었고 학교, 회사는 문을 닫음. 

2020년 코로나 바이러스를 대처하는 중국은 2002-2003년 사스 발생 때와는 달리 사실을 은폐하지 않고 바로 알리고 대처에 나섬.

사스 발발시, 중국은 사실을 몇 개월 은폐했다가 800명이나 사망.

2020년은 중국 정부는 매 시각 사망자와 감염자 숫자를 발표 중.

우한에서 건설되고 있는 새로운 병원 모습이 현지 생중계. 

시진핑 정부는 야생 동물 무역을 금지하기로 결정.


[3] 코로나 바이러스 진원지에 대한 거짓 정보와 혐오 조장 문제

박쥐탕 때문에 코로나 바이러스가 발발했는가?


전염병이 희귀종 동물 고기를 판매하는 우난시 후아난 시장에서 발생한 것으로 온라인에서 퍼짐.

소셜 미디어에 박쥐탕을 먹는 여성 사진이 올라왔는데, 이는 우난시 후아난 시장에서 촬영된 것이 아님. 그 사진 촬영 장소는 중국이 아니라 서 태평양 군도 ‘팔라우 Palau’였음.

코로나 바이러스 기원지는 아직도 정확하게 밝혀지지 않았음. 

중국에서 특별한 요리로 통하는 박쥐탕과 비슷한 그 어떤 것이라고 추측만 하고 있음.


[4] 달라진 중국 정부 태도, 검열 완화

중국 정부 당국이 온라인에서 벌어지고 있는 ‘코로나 바이러스 진원지’ 논쟁에 대해서 과거처럼 완강하게 막지 않고 느슨하게 풀어주고 있음. 그 이유는 중국인들이 정보 통제를 해버리면 더 분노할 것을 알기 때문.

물론 중국 정부의 통계를 전부 신뢰하기 힘들다. 전례:  2008년 가루우유 스캔들부터 2011년 웬조우 열차 충돌 사건을 은폐했던 사례가 있기 때문.


[5] 우한 시장 조우 시안왕 발언


우한 시장 조우 시안왕이 코로나 바이러스 소식을 빨리 알리지 못한 책임을 지고 시장직을 사임하고 싶다고 밝힘. 이는 마오쩌둥식 자아 비판의 현대판이지만, 조우 시안왕은 베이징 정부 허가없이는 그 뉴스를 제 때에 발표할 수 없었음을 과감히 시인.


[6] 중국 기업들의 태도 

중국 테크노 기업들도 현재 위기에 적극적으로 대처중. 

위챗은 새 기능을 첨부시켜 사용자들이 전염 가능 사건들과 부적절한 처방들을 즉각적으로 서로 보고할 수 있게 만들고 있음. 

인터넷 상업 플랫폼인 타오바오도 이런 위기 상황에서 마스크를 팔아 돈벌이를 하려는 회사들을 온라인에서 폐쇄조치함. 

틱톡으로 알려진 ‘도우인’ 스트리밍 플랫폼도 문닫은 극장들에서 볼 수 없는 영화 상영중. 

코로나 바이러스 위기가 중국인들의 연대를 강하게 형성중. 


[7] 중국인들의 정부에 대한 태도

중국인들이 정부당국이 과장된 조치를 취하고 있다고 생각하지 않음. 

세계보건기구 WHO도 중국에 ‘응급’ 조치를 선언했지만 “전 세계 건강 응급”상황은 아직 선포하지 않은 상태. 


[8] 향후 확산 문제 – 독감과 비교해볼 것. 

전염병이 더 확산될지는 아직 분명하지 않음. 치사율 역시 사스와 다른 호흡기 감염에 비해 더 낮음.

매년 독일에서 독감 (플루)으로 인해 죽는 사람 숫자는 2만명.

전 세계적으로는 매년 20만~65만명 정도 플루로 인해 사망.


[9] 한가지 분명한 건, 중국 시진핑 정부의 가장 최우선 과제는 ‘안정’이다.


중국인들이 직접 투표로 뽑은 정부가 아니기 때문에, 베이징 정부는 인민의 저항과 폭동을 방지하려면 신속한 결과를 내와야 한다. 코로나 바이러스로 인한 경제적 충격은 지금 예측할 수가 없다. 그러나 관광업은 곧바로 타격을 입었다. 그리고 우한 시에 있는 프랑스 르노, 미국 GM, 일본 혼다 공장은 생산을 중단했다. 

코로나 바이러스 사태로 인해 2020년 1사 분기 중국 경제 성장율은 5% 미만으로 떨어질 것이라는 보도도 있다.

하지만 코로나 바이러스는 곧 방역될 가능성이 크다. 만약 이번 위기로, 보건 위생 체계, 동물 복지, 언론 검열 등의 문제가 중국에서 개선된다면, 중국은 보다 더 강건한 나라가 될 것이다.



OPINION


https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-coronavirus-could-strengthen-china/a-52190430


Opinion: Coronavirus could strengthen China


After initial shortcomings, Beijing has acted more efficiently against the coronavirus crisis than it did against SARS. But China still needs to overcome some challenges to pass this test, says DW columnist Frank Sieren.


    

BG Alltag in der abgeriegelten Stadt Wuhan (Getty Images)

The coronavirus has China's elite firmly in its grip. President Xi Jinping has spoken of a "serious challenge." Prime Minister Li Keqiang wore a protective mask and went to the frontline in Wuhan to assess the scale of the epidemic for himself. A Politburo Standing Committee crisis meeting was broadcast on state television — on Chinese New Year, the most important holiday in the country, offering a rare view behind the scenes of the otherwise very secretive inner circle of power.


Read more: Countries evacuate citizens from China as coronavirus infections rise


The message from Beijing was clear: We will do everything necessary to contain the virus that is spreading from China across the world! Xi also made a clear warning to his comrades, saying that anyone who tried to cover up the spread of the disease would be "be nailed on the pillar of shame for eternity."


Prime Minister Li Keqiang wearing a mask in Wuhan (picture-alliance/AP Photo/Chinatopix)

Prime Minister Li Keqiang traveled to Wuhan to get a first-hand look at the crisis


The scale of Beijing's measures so far is unprecedented. Only an authoritarian one-party state could have implemented them so rapidly: Some 56 million people are under quarantine and air, rail and long-distance bus traffic has been suspended in at least 14 cities. What is incredible is that there have been no demonstrations, let alone riots, in the regions affected. There seems to be a high tolerance amid the population for the government's draconian measures.


Major events canceled


The authorities also canceled plans for the Spring Festival and long-awaited sporting events and closed off access to the Great Wall. A 25,000-square-meter (270,000 square-foot) hospital with 2,300 beds is due to be built from scratch in Wuhan and up and running by the beginning of February. Emergency measures costing the equivalent of over €100 million ($110 million) have been put in place in Hubei, which is the hardest-hit province. Hundreds of doctors and other medical personnel have already been sent to the area. The Spring Festival vacation will be extended and schools, and some businesses, will remain closed for longer than expected.


Read more: Coronavirus paranoia is outpacing its actual danger


The situation was different with the 2002/2003 SARS outbreak: The scale of the epidemic was played down for months. By the time it had been brought under control, 800 people had died. Now, Beijing is providing information about the number of cases and casualties almost every hour. Even the construction of the new hospital is being live-streamed.





Construction vehicles and machines digging at the site of a future Wuhan hospital (imago images/Xinhua)

Work is underway to build a new hospital in Wuhan


Social media seems to be less censored than it has been for years and the coronavirus outbreak is the number one topic. Videos of overworked nurses are circulating, as well as outraged memes. In one of these, last week's spectacular New Year's TV gala is juxtaposed with scenes of stressed doctors eating instant noodles in barren rooms instead of celebrating. Such criticism is currently tolerated. Beijing has finally banned the wild animal trade as it should have done a long time ago. It is hardly difficult not to eat bats or snakes.


Caused by bat soup?


The epidemic is thought to have originated at the Huanan market in downtown Wuhan, where exotic wild animals were sold. The now-famous video of a woman eating a soup in which a bat is swimming, however, was not shot at this market — or even in China. It's from Palau, an archipelago in the western Pacific Ocean. The precise origin of the virus is still unknown, contrary to many claims. It is only likely that it was something similar to bat soup, which is still considered a delicacy in China.


Read more: Coronavirus vaccine — a race against time


Normally, online debates about such matters would not have time to develop as any controversial comments would be deleted immediately to avoid panic. Currently, however, the government has loosened its grip on the reins of control. It knows that damage control is crucial. If the authorities were to tighten their censorship at a time like this, the population's general uncertainty could easily turn to anger. After all, there is a limit to the trust of the Chinese in official statistics. There have been too many cover-ups in the past, from the milk powder scandal of 2008 to the Wenzhou train collision of 2011.


A street in Wuhan (picture-alliance/Kyodo)

A market thought to be at the center of the virus outbreak has been shutdown


There is also no denying that there were some serious failures in Wuhan. The city's mayor, Zhou Xianwang, offered his resignation on Monday and admitted in an interview on CCTV that information was not made public early enough. This was a contemporary form of Maoist self-criticism, but he also delivered a courageous side blow to Beijing when he stated that, as a local politician, he would not have had the authority to release such information without approval from above.


Cohesion from the crisis, perhaps even progress?


China's tech companies are also doing everything they can to fight the crisis. WeChat has launched a new function so users can report suspicious incidents and also inadequate measures. The e-commerce platform Taobao has removed sales of face masks by firms trying to make money on the crisis. Streaming platform Douyin, known in much of the world as TikTok, is showing Spring Festival films that cannot be seen in cinemas shut down because of the crisis. At the end of the day, the crisis has also created solidarity. Most people in China do not think the government reacted in an exaggerated way. The World Health Organization has declared an "emergency in China" but not yet a "global health emergency."


Frank Sieren (picture-alliance/dpa/M. Tirl)

DW columnist Frank Sieren


It is still unclear how the epidemic will develop. The mortality rate is still well below that of SARS and other respiratory infections. By comparison, some 20,000 people die of the flu and its consequences each year in Germany. Worldwide, the figure lies between 200,000 and 650,000.


One thing is certain: Beijing's top priority is stability. Since the Chinese population does not elect its own government, Beijing has to deliver fast results if it wants to avoid protests and riots.


The epidemic's economic impact cannot yet be predicted. However, there has already been an effect on tourism and some major international companies, including France's Renault, US carmaker General Motors Japan's Honda, have also had to put a stop to their operations in Wuhan. Certain media outlets are predicting that China's economic growth in the first quarter could fall to below 5% because of the outbreak. SARS also had a significant economic impact, but, right now, all this is simply speculation. It is quite possible that the coronavirus will be contained soon. If it leads to a debate about improvements in the health system and animal welfare, or even about censorship, the crisis will have served to take China further.


DW columnist Frank Sieren has lived in Beijing for over 20 years.




























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