한국정치/북한_DPRK2018. 6. 12. 19:27

북미 공동합의서 서명 이후, 오후 5시 트럼프 기자회견 주제별 간단 요약 정리 


트럼프 기자회견 (1) " 3만 2천명 주한 미군 철수 하고 싶다. 집으로 데리고 오고 싶다. 그 이유는 돈이 너무 많이 든다. 한국도 돈을 좀 내고 있으나 미국이 너무 많이 내고 있다. 그러나 지금 당장 철수는 하지 않을 것이다." - 싱가포르 북미정상회담 이후 기자회견


트럼프 기자회견 (2) 왜 CVID 조항을 공동합의문에 명기하지 않았느냐? "트럼프 답변, 오늘 하루 다 토론할 시간이 부족했다. 그러나 (공동 합의문 문서를 읽으며) 완전한 비핵화라고 적혀져 있다. " 

"북한은 핵무기 시험장을 폐기했고, (ICBM을 지칭)미사일 시험장도 앞으로 폐쇄할 예정이다." "이렇게 북한이 행동에 옮긴 것을 보면, 지난 미국 오바마 정권부터 하지 못한 일을 우리가 해낸 것이다" "북한 비핵화 검증가능하다. verifiable . 미국 사찰단과 국제 사찰단의 협력해서 비핵화를 검증할 것이다."

"MIT 대학 핵무기 관련 40년간 가르친 교수, 자기 삼촌에게 배웠는데, 핵무기 20%를 비핵화하면 다시 되돌릴 수 없는 상태가 된다. 나도 열심히 공부하고 있다."


트럼프 기자회견 (3) 기자 질문 "만약 북한이 미국과 협상한 것을 지키지 않는다면, 무력을 사용할 것인가?"

트럼프 답변 "한반도에서 무력 사용하지 않겠다. DMZ에서 가까운 서울에 2천 800만이 살고 있는데 무슨 폭격을 할 수 있겠는가? 북한 국경과 서울이 너무 가깝기 때문에 이런 무력 사용을 난 하고 싶지 않다"

기자질문 "그런데 왜 Fire and fury 이런 언급을 했는가?" 

트럼프 답변 "그 당시는 그게 필요해서 언급했을 뿐이다" 

(*트럼프가 서울과 경기 수도권 인구를 합쳐서 2천 800만이라고 한 것 같음) 

-> 트럼프의 북한에 대한 불가침 다짐으로 해석이 가능하다. 

(3-1) 트럼프 답변 "War game 하기 싫다. 미국 Guam 괌에서 전투기 6시간 30분 출동시켜 전쟁을 치르는 것은 너무 비용이 많이 든다. 적합하지 않다 inappropriate " 

-> 트럼프는 비지니스맨 출신답게 비용 손실이 너무 큰 일은 하지 않으려고 함. 한미연합 군사훈련도 돈이 많이 들면 중단할 것으로 보임.


트럼프 기자회견 (4) 적어도 대여섯명의 기자들이 '북한 인권'을 김정은과 토론했냐고 질문, 오토 웜비어 사망, 북한 주민 인권 침해에 대해 Union 연설에서 트럼프 스스로 비판해놓고, 어떻게 해서 오늘 정상회담에서는 김정은을 'talented man' 이라고 칭찬할 수 있느냐? - 트럼프 답변 " 북한 핵문제라는 주요 현안을 제외하고 가장 어려운 토론주제였다. 나도 김정은에게 북한 인권 문제를 제기했다. "고 답변, 트럼프 답변 (2) "북한은 한국전쟁에서 사망한 미군 유해 (the remains), 6000 시신을 송환하기로 약속했다." (3) "Chairman Kim 김정은 위원장이 talented '정치가로서 능력이 있다는 뜻임' 그 말은, 26세에 국가를 이끌어나가기 시작했고 훌륭히 해 냈다는 요지로 김정은 위원장을 높게 평가했다.

(*북한 인권 거론은 미국 주요 언론이 다루는 기본적인 주제임)


트럼프 기자회견 (5) 기자질문 "북미회담에서 미국이 너무 많이 북한 김정은에 양보해버린 것 아니냐?" 

트럼프 답변 "우리가 북한에 양보한 것 하나도 없다. 북한의 완전한 비핵화 complete denuclearization 약속을 받아냈고, 북한에 억류된 미국인들도 미국으로 안전하게 돌아와서 가족들과 잘 살고 있다. 인질 송환에 돈도 전혀 들이지 않았다. 이란 인질 송환시 18억 달러를 썼다. 오늘 회담 이후 (대륙간 탄도 ICBM ) 미사일 시험장도 폐쇄할 예정이다. 한국전쟁 미군 유해도 김정은 위원장이 북한에 돌아가면 바로 조치를 취할 것이다. 또한 우리는 유능한 John Bolton 존 볼튼, 마이크 폼페오 Mike Pompeo 팀을 보유하고 있다. 

과거 미국 정부가 5년 전에, 10년 전에, 15년 전에 북한 핵문제를 처리했다면 지금보다 훨씬 더 쉬웠을 것이다. 우리 정부는 과거 미국 정부가 해내지 못한 일들을 해내고 있다.

클린턴 행정부는 30억 달러나 사용하고도 북한으로부터 아무것도 얻지 못했다. 


트럼프 기자회견 (6) 트럼프가 북한 평양에 갈 것인가? 김정은 위원장이 와싱턴을 방문할 것인가? 트럼프 답변 "내가 김정은을 와싱턴으로 초대했고, 김정은 위원장이 초대를 수락했다. 나도 평양에 갈 것이다." 구체적으로 언제 제 2차 북미회담이 열리는가? 트럼프 답변 "아직 일정을 확정하지 않았다 not set that up " 

(평가) 제 2차 북미회담은, 마이크 폼페오와 김영철과의 실무 회담의 결과가 좋으면 열릴 것으로 예측된다. 지금은 열린 문제이고 결정된 사항은 아무것도 없다.


트럼프 기자회견 (7) 질문 북한에 대한 경제제재 완화 조건은 무엇인가? 트럼프 답변 "북한이 비핵화를 어느정도 실천하는 것을 보고, 그때 가서 북한에 대한 경제제재 조치를 완화할 예정이다.지금은 완화하지 않고 변한 것은 없다."

"북한 경제 발전은 한국과 일본 등이 우선 도와줄 것이고,미국도 도움을 줄 수 있도록 노력하겠다."

(전망) 미국이 요구한 비핵화 절차를 북한이 어느정도 이행하면 (국면에 따라, 행동 대 행동) 미국은 북한에 대한 경제제재 조치를 점진적으로 완화할 것으로 보인다.


트럼프 기자회견(8) 트럼프 답변 요지: 평화협정은 미국, 중국, 북한, 한국 4개국이 주체가 될 것이다.

"우리가 꼭 평화 협정을 맺어야 하는 혹은 법적으로 평화 협정을 맺어야 하는지 말아야 하는지 이런 문제가 남아있긴 하지만, 난 그런 건 별로 상관하지 않는다. 중국과 한국이 북한과 미국과 더불어 평화 협정에 서명하면 좋겠다. "















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한국정치/북한_DPRK2018. 6. 12. 16:54

Trump becomes first U.S. president to meet a North Korean head of state; 'major change' coming

By NOAH BIERMAN, VICTORIA KIM and MATT STILES

JUN 11, 2018 | 11:50 PM

| SINGAPORE

  

The focus of the summit is the future of North Korea's nuclear program.

  

With hearty handshakes, claps on the back and broad smiles for the cameras, President Trump and Kim Jong Un appeared to open a new chapter Tuesday in America’s long-hostile relations with North Korea as the two leaders spent a historic day of diplomacy aimed at ending the nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula.


After meeting in private for 40 minutes and then together with senior aides for more than three hours, the world’s most powerful leader and arguably its most reviled signed three documents that they said turned the page on the past — although initial reports suggested the communique called for continued engagement but did not set a timeline for disarmament.


“The world will see a major change,” Kim said at a signing ceremony with Trump. The North Korean dictator said he and Trump “decided to leave the past behind.”


“We’ve developed a very special bond,” Trump said. He told reporters he “absolutely” would invite Kim to the White House, adding that they would meet “many times.”


The summit on Singapore’s Sentosa Island produced startling images of a U.S. president and a North Korean autocrat not just meeting for the first time, but standing shoulder to shoulder as equals before arrays of U.S. and North Korean flags, images long unimaginable in Kim’s isolated communist nation.


Kim arguably spoke for many earlier when he remarked, soon after meeting Trump, that the world probably viewed their improbable summit as “a form of fantasy … from a science fiction movie.”


The two men were initially stoic as they walked into the Capella Singapore hotel, Kim first and Trump several minutes later. They later came together from opposite sides of a gleaming white colonnade, exchanged a 13-second handshake and posed for photos, before sharing pleasantries in a side room.


Trump described meeting Kim as “a great honor.” Kim hinted at the three months of whirlwind developments leading to the first-ever meeting between a sitting U.S. president and a North Korean head of state.


“The past worked as fetters on our limbs, the old prejudices and practices worked as obstacles on our way forward, but we overcame all of them and we are here today,” Kim said through an interpreter.


“That’s true,” Trump responded.


The summit began with a private huddle, with only interpreters at Trump and Kim’s side. The conversation, without note takers or aides, was the latest sign of Trump’s norm-smashing approach to foreign affairs, where even one-on-one talks between leaders are usually carefully scripted and recorded.


The leaders were later joined by their senior aides, continuing their talks over a working lunch that featured such Korean dishes as stuffed cucumber and soy-braised cod, as well as Trump-friendly dishes like beef short rib confit and Haagen-Dazs ice cream.


Many Korea experts have cast grave doubt on the odds of winning a pact in the one-day summit that would compel Kim to give up his complete arsenal of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons in short order. Some warned that the summit would legitimize his isolated nation as a nuclear state.


Others saw glimmers of hope that the young autocrat would use the opportunity to strike a deal to pull North Korea out of widespread poverty and join some of its communist neighbors that have opened their economies and given their people a measure of autonomy.


Hours before the biggest meeting of his life, Kim made a move unthinkable in the seven-decade history of North Korea’s secretive, tyrannical government: He went sightseeing, in live view of hundreds of smartphone cameras.


Kim’s motorcade left his heavily fortified luxury hotel shortly after 9 p.m. Monday and headed to some of the busiest tourist destinations in downtown Singapore, including the rooftop of the Marina Bay Sands hotel and the Jubilee Bridge.


Surrounded by his entourage, a throng of bodyguards and Singapore government officials, Kim took in the sights and basked in camera flashes, greeted by a curious and buzzy crowd everywhere he went. He even posed, smiling, for a selfie snapped by Singapore’s foreign minister, Vivian Balakrishnan.


By Tuesday morning, high-definition photos of Kim’s jaunt about the affluent island nation and his rock-star-like welcome were on the front pages of newspapers in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital. The casual approach was in direct contrast to that of his father and grandfather, who were seen only in staid, staged images issued by state media.


The fanfare was a rare upstaging for Trump, who spent a quiet evening largely out of sight.


Up to the moment coverage of the Singapore summit »

Among those watching Trump and Kim meet live on television was South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who brokered the summit between a longtime ally and a neighboring nuclear-armed foe. In a Cabinet meeting Tuesday, he said he had a sleepless night. "All of Korea's attention is probably trained on Singapore," he said.


The White House said Monday that the preliminary talks “moved more quickly than expected” and that the summit would wrap up in one day. Trump was expected to leave Singapore on Tuesday night, a day earlier than originally planned.


Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Trump could go further than previous presidents in trying to make a deal, suggesting the president was willing to ease Kim’s concerns about America’s military posture and security guarantees to allies in Northeast Asia as long as North Korea gives up its unconventional weapons.


“We’re prepared to take what will be security assurances that are different, unique than … [what] America has been willing to provide previously,” Pompeo said.



President Trump shakes hands with North Korea leader Kim Jong Un at the Capella resort on Sentosa Island in Singapore. (Evan Vucci / Associated Press)


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Pompeo refused to say whether Trump was considering withdrawing or reducing the 28,000 U.S. troops in South Korea, but his language suggested an openness to realigning the U.S. military presence and operations in the region, a long-held North Korean demand.


North Korea is also eager for the United States to lower its so-called nuclear umbrella, a shield that is guaranteed under long-standing defense treaties with South Korea and Japan in the event of an attack from North Korea.


The U.S. foreign policy establishment considers an easing of the U.S. regional defense posture risky and highly inadvisable as long as North Korea maintains its nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, and a million-man army that mostly is deployed near the border with South Korea.


Security experts have warned that any pullback of U.S. forces would undermine decades of postwar alliances and allow China to accelerate its efforts toward regional dominance.


Even as Pompeo floated the apparent U.S. concessions, he took a hard line on what the Trump administration would demand in return. He said economic sanctions would remain in place “until North Korea completely and verifiably eliminates its weapons-of-mass-destruction programs."


If taken at face value, the full elimination of North Korea’s extensive storehouse of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons could take years, making the prospect a tough sell to Kim, given the crippling effects of Trump’s “maximum pressure” sanctions program on North Korea’s economy.


But Pompeo said Trump would quickly determine at the summit whether Kim was serious about his offer to denuclearize, even though the two sides have never publicly agreed on what that would entail.


“North Korea has previously confirmed to us its willingness to denuclearize, and we are eager to see if those words prove sincere,” he said.


Pompeo continued to downplay the possibility of an immediate accord between Trump and Kim, suggesting a successful outcome would simply be further engagement between Washington and Pyongyang.


The discussions “will set the framework for the hard work that will follow,” he said.


It was the latest scaling back of Trump’s initial soaring optimism for a speedy disarmament agreement or a peace treaty to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War; he once even suggested that North and South Korea might want to hold a large celebration after he and Kim met.


Instead, Pompeo made clear that the U.S. team was fully aware of the long record of failed negotiations with North Korea, usually after the U.S. side accused Pyongyang of cheating or failing to fulfill its promises to curb its nuclear or missile programs.


“The United States has been fooled before. There’s no doubt about it,” he said. “Many presidents previously have signed off on pieces of paper only to find out the North Koreans either didn’t promise what we thought they had or actually reneged on their promises.”


At his news briefing, Pompeo made no mention of human rights. Critics have urged Trump to demand that Kim reform his repressive government, which the State Department has accused of assassinating dissenters and jailing tens of thousands of prisoners to maintain its grip.


Up until Monday evening, North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui and U.S. envoy Sung Kim continued last-minute working-level negotiations on a possible agreement for Trump and Kim to present as tangible results from their summit.


Traditionally, summits between heads of state follow months of lower-level meetings in which officials work out a deal, haggling over every clause and comma, while choreographing the interactions of the top leaders in advance.


This summit was proposed only three months ago and finalized less than two weeks ago after a tense period of roller-coaster will-they-or-won’t-they diplomacy.


The two sides did not put forward a public agenda as they made final preparations.


Trump has vacillated over his objectives for the meeting with Kim. At first he said he would accept nothing less than swift and permanent nuclear disarmament from North Korea.


More recently, he has allowed that the summit could start a longer process and that it would be a “get to know you plus” meeting with a reclusive adversary.


Pompeo, who has been Trump’s most influential advisor on North Korea, said the United States remains "committed to the complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization” of the Korean peninsula.


That has long been official U.S. policy and represents a hard line that some advisors and outsiders have suggested could bend if Trump and Kim are able to reach a deal.


David Kang, a professor at at USC who heads its Korean Studies Institute, said that he expected little of substance from the summit but that the diplomatic process still represented significant change for North Korea and the region.


“This is a photo op,” he said.


11:54 p.m.: Updated with the conclusion of the meeting among Trump, Kim and their aides.


9:57 p.m.: Updated with further comments from the summit.


7:18 p.m.: Updated with the leaders’ comments.


6:05 p.m.: Updated with their meeting.


This article was first posted at 8:30 a.m.



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한국정치/북한_DPRK2018. 6. 10. 22:08

윤영관 발표 요지 1) 북미 회담에 회의적 시각도 있다. 3가지 주장들이다. 북한이 완전하고 검증가능하고 비가역적인 핵폐기 CVID 를 받아들일 것인가 2) 북핵 폐기 사찰에 대해 어느 정도까지 북한이 허용할 것인가? 존 볼튼이 주장한 intrusive nuclear inspection 즉 사찰단이 북한에 들어가 직접 핵무기와 핵탄두를 조사 검사하고, 미국으로 반출까지 한다는 그런 사찰 방식에 동의할 것인가? 라는 질문에 북한은 그렇게 까지 할 것 같지 않다. 3) 북한의 '비핵화' 개념과 미국의 '비핵화' 개념이 다르다. 북한의 '한반도 비핵화' 개념 안에는 주한 미군 철수, 한미일 동맹 체제 해체 등이 포함되어 있기 때문이다. 


이러한 회의론에도 불구하고, 북미 회담이 성공하기 위해서는 트럼프와 김정은의 대담하고 통큰 (bold) 정치적 결단이 필요하다.

북한과 미국과의 한국전쟁 종언 선언 ending the Korean war, 북미 수교를 목표로 하는 북미 연락사무소 설치 opening liaison office , 북한에 대한 경제제재 완화 및 철폐가 필요하다.


 






 

Getting to Yes With Kim Jong-un

 

There are of course no guarantees that Donald Trump’s upcoming summit with the North Korean leader will succeed. What is clear is that successful denuclearization will require a combination of bold political decisions – say, formally ending the Korean War, opening liaison offices, or relaxing some economic sanctions – and realistic prudence.


SEOUL – Has North Korea’s ruler, Kim Jong-un, made a strategic decision to trade away his nuclear program, or is he just engaged in another round of deceptive diplomacy, pretending that he will denuclearize in exchange for material benefits for his impoverished country?


This is, perhaps, the key question in the run-up to the summit between Kim and US President Donald Trump in Singapore on June 12. Until then, no one will know the answer, perhaps not even Kim himself.


Optimists tend to believe that Kim’s declared intention to denuclearize is sincere. They highlight the fact that North Korea’s economy has changed fundamentally since he succeeded his father, Kim Jong-il, in 2011. It is now more open, with foreign trade accounting for almost half of GDP, the result of a gradual marketization process that began in the mid-1990s. But with this openness comes vulnerability, which explains Kim’s active diplomatic efforts to prevent serious economic disruption from the existing international sanctions regime.



Unlike his father, the 34-year-old Kim has been active in pursuing pro-market economic growth and may be aiming to emulate Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China’s reforms in the late 1970s. Kim’s recent sacking of three senior old-guard military officials may hint that he is ready to offer some important concessions to prepare a favorable diplomatic environment for concentrating on economic development. The key question remains whether Trump is now ready to embrace Kim’s North Korea as President Richard Nixon did with Deng’s China.



Pessimists, however, caution against believing that Kim is serious about denuclearization. There is so far no evidence, they argue, that Kim is different from his father (and grandfather, Kim Il-sung), when it comes to adhering to international agreements. They are skeptical, for example, that North Korea will cooperate fully on three major issues.



First, despite Kim’s declaration, it remains unclear whether he is agreeing to “complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement” (CVID) of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. His commitment remains aspirational and lacks substance or operational content. Second, given North Korea’s bad track record, the pessimists think it unlikely that Kim will permit intrusive nuclear inspections, which is a critical component of CVID. Finally, North Korea has not yet clarified the terms of its denuclearization. Its past official position –withdrawal of US troops from South Korea and an end to the bilateral alliance, would be a non-starter.



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But there may be a way to achieve denuclearization that satisfies both optimists and pessimists. To find it requires taking a step back and considering the most fundamental reason for the diplomatic failures of the last three decades: the high level of mutual distrust, which has made a small and weak country like North Korea, surrounded by big powers, paranoid about its own security. In order to address this problem at the root, the US should have taken a political approach, rather than focusing repeatedly on concluding a narrowly defined military-security deal.




For example, President George H.W. Bush’s administration declined North Korea’s offer to establish diplomatic relations in 1991-92, when the fall of the Soviet Union heightened Kim Il-sung’s sense of insecurity. Likewise, North Korea’s major complaint regarding the October 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework was that the US did not keep its promise to improve political relations with North Korea. The Clinton administration tried a political approach in 2000, but it was too little too late.



The first Trump-Kim summit may not be able to resolve all three major issues dividing the US and North Korea all at once. But that does not mean the summit will be a failure. For the first time, the US is tackling the fundamental cause of the North Korea problem, rather than focusing on its symptoms. And this is why Trump’s seemingly impromptu decision to meet Kim face to face is meaningful and productive, especially if he can bolster Kim’s confidence that he and his regime will be safe without nuclear weapons and that the international community will help him to focus on economic growth.



That said, Trump would be well advised to leave the details of the denuclearization process in the hands of diplomats who have much experience in dealing with North Korea. In the meantime, he will need to rebuild an international coalition to maintain effective economic sanctions, which is the most powerful leverage for persuading Kim to accept CVID. Here, close cooperation with China will be essential. Moreover, the US should reward critical concessions by North Korea – for example, permission to conduct intrusive inspections of its entire nuclear program by international inspectors – even before the completion of CVID.



There are of course no guarantees that it will work. What is clear is that successful denuclearization of North Korea will require a combination of bold political decisions – say, formally ending the Korean War, opening liaison offices, or relaxing some economic sanctions – and realistic prudence.



Posted by NJ원시

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