Nakjung Kim


March 29 at 9:15 PM · 


[촌평] 415 총선에서 민주당이 1당이 되지 못한다면, 앞으로 500년은 한국에서 정치하지 말아야 하고, 할 자격도 없다. 2020년 코로나 위기는 1963년 태풍 셜리와 같다. 전 세계적 생산활동 중단인 상황에서, 집권당인 민주당이 정치 주도권을 가지고 있다. 그런데도 전략적 엄살만 피운다. 기가 막히지 아니한가? 


첫번째는 민주당이 통합당에게 1당 뺏긴다고, 문재인 탄핵당한다고 여론전을 펼쳐, 위성정당 2개를 만들었던 사실이. 총선 이후, '선거법 개정'을 똥물묻은 옷이라고 버리겠다는 심사다. 민주주의 선거제도는 "똥물"이 아니다. 총선 이후, 전 국민과 함께 하는 선거법 개정운동에 다시 나서야 한다.


두번째, 코로나 위기시, 황교안은 1.5m~2m 거리두기 의학적 사실을 무시하고 중세교회시대로 회귀해, "교회당에 모여 기도해서 코로나 사탄을 물리치자"는 정치를 시연했다. 황교안에게는 보리빵 5개, 물고기 2마리가 없다. 


영국 보수당 존슨, 미국 트럼프, 독일 보수파 메르켈을 그대로 복사해서, 대구시장와 함께, 헬리콥터 타고 대구 시내에, 박정희가 1963년도에 했던 것처럼, 긴급 지원비를 뿌리고 다닐 시기에, 교회당으로 숨어버렸다. 교회당 '타조'로 변신해버렸다.


이런 13세기 교회당 정치로 415 총선을 이길 수 있단 말인가?

샤이 보수가 예수처럼 3일만에 부활한다고? 샤이 보수가 먹을 게 없어서 걸어나오지도 못할 때, 보리빵 5개와 물고기 2마리 긴급 생계비를 지원하는 문재인 예수를 심판하러 투표장에 나온다는 게 말이 된다고 생각하는가? (John 6, Bible )



4월 15일 , 6: 15 p.m 출구조사 (MBC)





#위성정당_미래한국당_열린민주당_더불어시민당_해체하라

Posted by NJ원시

댓글을 달아 주세요

정책비교/의료2020. 3. 21. 14:04

복지삭감과 노동자 해고 자유라는 신자유주의 원조국가, 영국보수당도 변했다. 영국 보수당 보리스 존슨이 3개월 특단의 조치를 내렸다.


1. 코로나 전염병(COVID-19) 대책, 영국 보수당의 선택, (3월부터 5월까지) 3개월간 영국 노동자 3천 300만에게 임금의 80%를 보전해, 월 소득 365만원 보장하겠다. 월 소득 365만원은 영국 중위소득보다 더 많다. 영국 역사상 유례없는 정부 투자액, 3500억 파운드 (511조)이다.


영국 보수당이 측은지심 (compassion)이라는 단어를 썼다. 타인의 아픔에 공감을 표시하겠다는 전통적인 가치로 복귀했다. 영국 보수당 수상 보리스 존슨이 떠듬떠듬, 재무장관 리쉬 수낙이 유창하게, 상가, 레스토랑, 공연장,술집 문닫아라, 그리고, 정부는 월별로 새로운 대책을 발표해, 소득 보전을 해주겠다고 약속했다.


정부 소득보전 대상은 영국 노동자 3천 300만이고, 이 중 330만은 자영업자이다. 그 조건은 코로나 위기 기간 동안에 현재 회사가 노동자를 해고하지 말아야 한다.


복지삭감,노동자해고 자유라는 신자유주의 원조국가 영국 보수당은 왜 이런 기존 영국 쌔처 수상의 길을 역행하는 극약처방을 내렸는가?


크게 보면 두 가지 이유가 있어 보인다.


첫번째는 영국 실업 폭등 예상이다. 도이체 방크 경제전문가들이 이번 COVID-19 발발로 영국 경제가 2008년 금융공황보다 더 심각하게 타격을 받을 것이라고 예상했다. 수백만 실직에 따른 실업률이 2배로 증가할 것으로 예상했기 때문이다. 실업에 대한 선제적 예방차원이다.


두번째는, 영국정부가 다른 국가 정부들의 적극적인 현금 지원책에 자극을 받았다. 미국 트럼프의 월1천 달러 지급, 덴마크 정부는 노동자 임금의 75% 지급, 프랑스 정부는 해고자에게 기존임금의 84%에 해당하는 “부분 실업 수당” 지급과 재고용 계획을 약속했기 때문이다.


2. 영국 보수당의 다른 지원책 내용들은, 연말 세금 정산 혜택, 주거비 30% 보조, 기업의 부가가치세 납세 연기 등이다. 

(1) 기업 보조: 부가가치세 VAT (300억 파운드에 해당하는 경기 부양책: 4386억원) 납세 연기

(2) 400만 가구 혜택: 연말 세금 정산시:  1천 파운드(146만원) 지급 = 세금 반환  

(3) 월세 보조금 : 10억 파운드 (1조 4620억원) 보조금 투하, 현행 월세의 30%에 해당 





관련 기사 출처: https://bit.ly/2xXHoeN


Coronavirus outbreak
UK government to pay 80% of wages for those not working in coronavirus crisis
Rishi Sunak announces ‘unprecedented’ scheme offering up to £2,500 a month

-
Fri 20 Mar 2020 17.27 GMT-
The government is to pay the wages of millions of workers across Britain to keep them in jobs as the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak escalates.

In an unprecedented step for the British government, the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, said the state would pay grants covering up to 80% of the salary of workers if companies kept them on their payroll, rather than lay them off as the economy crashes. The extraordinary payments will be worth up to a maximum of £2,500 per month, just above the median income.

Coming just days after the government announced a business bailout package worth £350bn to help firms cope with the lockdown of large parts of the British economy as the disease spreads, the chancellor described his revamped plan as one of the most comprehensive in the world and “unprecedented in British history”. City economists said the new plan would cost an additional £78bn.

Sunak said: “We are starting a great national effort to protect jobs. We want to look back on this time and remember how in the face of a generation-defining moment we undertook a collective national effort and we stood together. It’s on all of us.”

The chancellor said his commitments were “unprecedented measures for unprecedented times” as he appealed to the public to support each other.

“Now more than at any time in our history we will be judged by our capacity for compassion. Our ability to come through this won’t just be down to what government or businesses do but the individual acts of kindness that we show each other.”

He said there would be no limit on the funding available to pay people’s wages. The payments will be backdated to the start of March, will be up and running within weeks, open initially for at least three months, and could be extended if necessary.

Speaking directly to employers as growing numbers of British firms teeter on the brink of collapse, leaving millions of jobs hanging in the balance, Sunak said: “The government is doing its best to stand behind you. And I’m asking you to do your best to stand behind our workers.”

The government is also deferring the next quarter of VAT payments, which is the equivalent of injecting another £30bn into the economy and is designed to help companies stay afloat, he added.

Sunak was speaking alongside Boris Johnson at the daily Downing Street press conference hours after schools shut to most children until further notice and just after the prime minister announced the enforced closure of pubs, restaurants, theatres and other social venues. The shutdowns will have dramatic repercussions for the economy, and Johnson said the package of financial aid was intended to be temporary, and part of a “joint objective” between people and the government to beat the disease.

“We will do everything in our power to help. Supporting you directly in a way that government has never done before, in addition to the package we have already set out for business,” Johnson said.


How do I know if I have coronavirus and what happens next? – video explainer
The government has come under mounting pressure in recent days to do more to support ordinary people after taking unprecedented steps to help firms as the crisis worsens. Other countries have taken steps to support workers as the global pandemic intensives, including in the US, where the White House is looking at making direct cash payments to American citizens, and Denmark, where the state will pay 75% of workers’ wages.

French workers who are temporarily laid off by their employers due to the coronavirus crisis are entitled to claim “partial unemployment benefit” equal to 84% of their wages, and employers are obliged to keep their jobs open for them.

Sunak did not provide estimates for the cost of the government paying workers’ wages, as the price tag will depend on the extent of firms taking up the offer. There are around 33 million workers in the British labour force, with just over a 10th of them self-employed. While unemployment is currently the lowest since the mid 1970s, it is expected to rise dramatically.

The consultancy Capital Economics said the latest measures could cost around £78bn and save hundreds of thousands of jobs. Without the wage subsidy, unemployment could have doubled to 8% with more than 1.5 million people tumbling out of work, they said.

Instead, the jobless rate is now expected to climb to 6% with about 700,000 people losing their jobs.

The chancellor also announced measures to strengthen the benefits safety net for people out of work, increasing the value of universal credit and tax credits by £1,000 a year to help more than 4m vulnerable households across the country, in a package worth £7bn. He also earmarked £1bn of extra support for renters, ramping up housing benefit and universal credit so the local housing allowance will cover at least 30% of market rents in a local area.

The government has been forced to revise its approach to tackling the Covid-19 outbreak on a daily basis as the increasing severity of the health pandemic and damage to the economy unfolds.

Economists at Deutsche Bank forecast the British economy could suffer the worst recession for a century – outstripping the 2008 financial crisis – with millions of workers losing their jobs and the unemployment rate doubling.

Sunak had initially earmarked £12bn in last week’s budget to soften the impact of the Covid-19 health pandemic, although the chancellor was rapidly forced to come back with fresh measures, while promising to do “whatever it takes” to see the UK through the crisis.


Posted by NJ원시

댓글을 달아 주세요

정책비교/국제정치2019. 12. 13. 19:58

.

보리스 존슨 (영국 보수당) 선거 승리


브렉시트 가속화



Election results 2019: Boris Johnson hails 'new dawn' after historic victory

Media captionBoris Johnson says he will work "night and day, flat out" to prove his backers right

Boris Johnson has promised to deliver Brexit and repay the trust of voters after he led the Conservatives to an "historic" general election win.

The prime minister - who is meeting the Queen to ask to form a new government - has a Commons majority of 78, with one seat still to declare.

He said he would work "flat out" and lead a "people's government".

Jeremy Corbyn said he would not fight another election as Labour leader, amid recriminations over the party's defeat.

The opposition was swept aside by the Conservatives in its traditional heartlands in the Midlands and north-eastern England and lost six seats in Wales.

With just one constituency - the Cornish seat of St Ives - left to declare, the Conservatives have 364 MPs, Labour 203, the SNP 48, Liberal Democrats 11 and the DUP eight.

Sinn Fein has seven MPs, Plaid Cymru four and the SDLP has two. The Green Party and Alliance Party have one each.

The Brexit Party - which triumphed in the summer's European Parliament elections - failed to win any Westminster seats.

The Conservative Party's Commons majority is its largest since Margaret Thatcher won a third term in 1987.

In his victory speech, Mr Johnson told activists it was a "new dawn" for the country, echoing comments Labour's Tony Blair made when he won the general election of 1997.

He thanked Labour voters, many of whom, he said, had backed the Conservatives for the first time, vowing to lead a "people's government" and fulfil the "sacred trust" placed in him.

"You may intend to return to Labour next time round, and if that is the case, I am humbled that you have put your trust in me, and I will never take your support for granted," he said.

"I will make it my mission to work night and day, flat out to prove that you were right in voting for me this time, and to earn your support in the future."

Media captionElection 2019: The story of the night as the results came in

Mr Johnson said the electorate's "voice" had "been heard", adding: "The people want change... We cannot and we must not let them down."

Labour has suffered its worst defeat since 1935, losing seats across northern England, the Midlands and Wales in areas which backed Brexit in the 2016 referendum.

And Jo Swinson has quit as Liberal Democrat leader after losing her Dunbartonshire East seat to the SNP by 149 votes

More on Election 2019
Presentational line

Mr Johnson said the Tories' thumping victory had "smashed the roadblock" in Parliament over Brexit and put an end to the "miserable threats" of another referendum on Europe.

He said: "We will get Brexit done on time by 31 January - no ifs, no buts, not maybe."

Speaking after he was re-elected as MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, he said there had been a "political earthquake".

During the six-week campaign, Mr Johnson - who became prime minister in July after a Tory leadership contest - focused relentlessly on a single message, to "get Brexit done".

Labour primarily campaigned on a promise to end austerity by increasing spending on public services.

Presentational grey line
Analysis box by Laura Kuenssberg, political editor

Johnson's gamble pays off

The same prime minister. But a new map.

A victory bigger than the Tories, haunted by 2017, had dreamt of. As the hours ticked by, red flipped to blue, familiar faces forced out of their seats.

Boris Johnson gambled that he could win an election with support from towns and communities where voting Conservative might almost have seemed a sin.

And he won.

The Conservatives' majority will have an almost immediate effect on the country - unless something strange happens we will leave the European Union next month because behind him on the green benches will be new Tory MPs who will vote through his Brexit bill, his position strong enough to subdue any opposition.

Presentational grey line

At 33%, the party's share of the vote is down around eight points on the 2017 general election and is lower than that achieved by Neil Kinnock in 1992.

Some traditional Labour constituencies, such as Darlington, Sedgefield and Workington, in the north of England, will have a Conservative MP for the first time in decades - or in the case of Bishop Auckland and Blyth Valley - for the first time since the seat was created.

Speaking at his election count in Islington North, where he was re-elected with a reduced majority, Mr Corbyn said Labour had put forward a "manifesto of hope" but "Brexit has so polarised debate it has overridden so much of normal political debate".

Jo SwinsonImage copyrightPA MEDIA
Image captionJo Swinson was the highest-profile casualty of the night

The BBC's Iain Watson said he understood Mr Corbyn wanted to stay on for a "few more months" but he could face "sustained pressure" to go sooner, given the scale of the defeat.

Former Labour MP John Mann said the leader's unpopularity on the doorstep was palpable and Mr Corbyn should have "gone already".

Others have blamed the party's support for another Brexit referendum and the long-running anti-Semitism row. Margaret Hodge, MP for Barking, said Labour had become the "nasty party".

Labour chairman Ian Lavery said he was "desperately disappointed", adding that voters in Labour's "heartlands" were "aggrieved" at the party's Brexit stance.

In other developments:

  • Sir Ed Davey and Lib Dem president Sal Brinton are taking over as interim leaders of the Lib Dems
  • The Lib Dems took Richmond Park, in south-west London, from Conservative minister Zac Goldsmith, but high-profile former Tory and Labour recruits Chuka Umunna, Luciana Berger and Sam Gyimah all fell short
  • Nigel Dodds, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party at Westminster, lost his Belfast North seat to Sinn Fein
  • Labour's Caroline Flint - who backed the Tory Brexit deal in defiance of her party - and the party's longest-serving MP, Dennis Skinner, were among high-profile opposition figures to be defeated
  • Remain-backing former Tory minister Dominic Grieve came second to the Conservative candidate in Beaconsfield
  • Anna Soubry, who quit the Tories to form a pro-Remain group of MPs, lost her Nottinghamshire seat to the Tories, as did the other members of The Independent Group for Change
  • Nigel Farage said his Brexit Party had taken votes from Labour in Tory target seats, although he himself had spoiled his ballot paper "as I could not bring myself to vote Conservative".

Scottish National Party leader and Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said it had been an "exceptional night" for her party.

She said Scotland had sent a "very clear message" that it did not want a Boris Johnson Conservative government and the prime minister did not have a mandate to take Scotland out of the EU.

It was also a "strong endorsement" for Scotland having a choice over its own future in an another independence referendum, she added.

Mr Johnson has been congratulated on his "great win" by US President Donald Trump and the EU's top official, Charles Michel, who said he hoped Parliament would approve the Brexit withdrawal treaty agreed in October as "soon as possible".

The legislation paving the way for Brexit on 31 January is due to come before the new Parliament for the first time next Friday.

There is expected to be a minor cabinet reshuffle on Monday, to fill vacant positions such as Welsh and culture secretaries.

A more thorough reshaping is likely to be put on hold until February, after the UK has left the EU, with a Budget statement in March.

















General Election 2019: What's behind the Conservative victory?

Woman carrying a ballot boxImage copyrightGETTY IMAGES

Boris Johnson has won a decisive majority, on the back of a big swing from Labour to the Conservatives in Leave-voting Britain.

Yet north of the border the SNP dramatically almost swept the board.

With almost all results now declared, the prime minister is set to win a majority of 78 seats - the biggest Tory majority since 1987.

Meanwhile, at 44%, the party's share of the vote is set to be at its highest since 1979, when Margaret Thatcher became prime minister.

Labour, in contrast, finds itself with little more than 200 seats, even fewer than the party won in its previous worst post-war result in 1983.

The difference between Leave and Remain seats

However, the swing in the Tories' favour varied dramatically across the country.

In those seats where more than 60% of voters backed Leave in the 2016 EU referendum, the increase in Conservative support on average was 6%.

However, in those seats where more than 60% voted Remain, the party's vote actually fell by three points.

How the parties' share changed in strong Leave and strong Remain areas.

In contrast, Labour's vote fell on average by more than 10 points in the most pro-Leave areas.

Its vote fell by more than six points in the most pro-Remain ones.

Working-class and middle-class voters

This pattern had a clear impact on the geography of the election.

Support for the Conservatives rose by four points in the Midlands, the North East and Yorkshire - the regions of England that voted most heavily in favour of Leave.

In contrast, the party's vote fell back by a point in London and the South East.

And in Scotland, the party's vote fell by as much as four points.

Conversely, Labour saw its vote fall by 12 to 13 points in the North East and Yorkshire, while it fell by only six or seven points in London and the South of England.

The result also saw Labour lose ground heavily in its traditional working-class heartlands.

BBC north of England election results map

Support for the party fell by 11 points in those constituencies with most voters in working-class jobs.

Its share of the vote fell by only seven points in those with most middle-class voters.

The bond between Labour and its traditional working-class base is now badly strained.

In the EU referendum working-class voters voted heavily to leave the EU. These voters had already swung quite strongly to the Conservatives in 2017.

Labour tried to retain their support - remaining ambiguous about whether it was a pro-Remain or a pro-Leave party.

But this election simply saw the pro-Conservative trend continue yet further.

As a result, Labour dramatically lost many a seat in the North of England and the Midlands - places such as Ashfield, Bishop Auckland, and Workington - that had never previously elected a Conservative MP in a general election.

An emboldened SNP

The success of the Conservatives in England and Wales was matched by that of the SNP in Scotland.

The party has won 48 of the 59 seats north of the border, and 45% of the vote across Scotland as a whole.

It is a result almost as good as the party's historic performance in the 2015 election.

Presentational line

Scotland vote share

After 59 of 59 seats

Party% share
Scottish National Party45.0%
Conservative25.1%
Labour18.6%
Liberal Democrat9.5%
Green1.0%
The Brexit Party0.5%

Scotland vote share change since 2017

After 59 of 59 seats

  • Scottish National Party+8.1Gained
  • Liberal Democrat+2.8Gained
  • Green+0.8Gained
  • The Brexit Party+0.5Gained
  • Conservative-3.5Lost
  • Labour-8.5Lost
Presentational line

And, in a country that voted in favour of Remain, it is likely to embolden the SNP in its pursuit of a second independence referendum.

That is a ballot to which the Conservatives are strongly opposed. So, a constitutional clash between the Scottish and UK governments seems likely.

Liberal Democrat losses

One of the SNP's biggest scalps was the Dunbartonshire East seat of Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson - a defeat that capped a miserable night for the Liberal Democrats.

Despite advancing more strongly in pro-Remain areas, the party seems likely to end up with only 11 or 12 seats.

This will be no more than the number they won in 2017, even though their share of the vote is up by four points.

None of the many MPs who defected to the party during the last Parliament have been able to retain their seats.

Presentational grey line

More from Sir John Curtice

Presentational grey line

Fewer than half backed Brexit parties

The announcement of the election was greeted with concern about the level of turnout, for a ballot held just a fortnight before Christmas.

In the event, about 67% of voters made it to the polls - just two points down on 2017.

Turnout fell most markedly in seats where Labour are relatively strong, suggesting that some of those who usually support the party opted to stay at home.

Turnout at UK elections, 1979-2019

The Conservatives' success means that Britain will now leave the EU at the end of January.

However, it seems unlikely to end the debate about Britain's relationship with the EU.

The country's divisions over Brexit were exposed in the very different swings across the country.

Meanwhile, at 47%, fewer than half of voters backed the Conservatives or the Brexit Party - the parties in favour of leaving the EU without another referendum.

This is a point to which opponents of Brexit are likely to point in the weeks and months to come.

But for now at least, the day clearly belongs to Mr Johnson.


Posted by NJ원시

댓글을 달아 주세요

정책비교/국제정치2016. 7. 8. 09:54


6월 23일 영국 유럽연합 탈퇴 (Brexit) 국민투표를 어떻게 볼 것인가? 참고 자료 1.


글쓴이: 에드 룩스비 (옥스포드 러스킨 칼리지 정치학 강의: Ed Rooksby ) 2016년. 6월 22일.  

요지: 좌파들이 브렉시트를 주장하기도 하지만, 강경 우파가 브렉시트 국면을 정치적으로 주도하고 있기 때문에, 결국 이번 브렉시트 국민투표는 ‘이민 정책’에 대한 찬성/반대 투표로 귀결될 것이다. 유럽연합 잔류파 데이비드 캐머런 보수당 수상이  강경 보수파이자 브렉시트 찬성자  보리스 존슨 (Boris Johnson)으로 교체될 것이다. 브렉시트 국민투표 결과, 탈퇴파가 승리하면 영국은 1980년대  신자유주의 쌔처리즘 (Thacherism)으로 회귀할 가능성이 크다. 자본측에 대한 통제는 약화되고, 정부의 고용 정책은 줄어들고, 노동자들의 임금은 저하할 것이다. 


2. 브렉시트 찬성 정치세력들


(1) 우파 : 영국 독립당 소속 나이젤 파라지 (Nigel Farage: UKIP : UK Independence Party)

이민자들에 대한 강경 정책은 나치 선동을 연상케 한다. 


(2) 우파 : 영국 보수당 소속 보리스 존슨, 마이클 고브  (Boris Johnson : Michael Gove) 

: 보수당의 50% 정도 의원이 브렉시트를 찬성하다. 


(3) 렉시트 좌파 : ( 좌파적인 유럽연합 탈퇴Lexit : Left Exit)

 사회주의 노동자 정당 (SWP: Socialist Workers Party) 과 소수 혁명적 그룹들이 말하는 좌파적인 유럽연합 탈퇴 근거는 다음과 같다. 유럽연합 체제는 ‘긴축 정책 지향 pro-austerity’, 유럽 연합 지도자들은 반-민주주의적 보스 클럽이다. 따라서 이러한 유럽연합으로 영국이 탈퇴해버리면, 유럽연합 내부에서 차지하는 영국 자본가들의 권력을 축소시킬 수 있고, 유럽 연합 엘리트들에게도 치명적인 타격을 입힐 수 있다. 


또한 영국 국내 정치 측면에서도, 데이비드 캐머론 (David Cameron) 보수당 체제를 약화시킬 수 있다. 이렇게 되면 영국 노동자들의 정치 투쟁도 새로운 기회를 획득할 수 있을 것이다.


4. 브렉시트 보다는 유럽연합 자체를 좌파적으로 개조하자.  AEiP (또다른 유럽은 가능하다 Another Europe is Possible)   


여기에 노동당 청년당원 활동가 중심인 모멘텀 (Momentum)이 참여하고 있다. 이 모멘텀은 노동당 당수 제레미 코빈을 지지해왔다. 이들의 주장은 유럽연합을 민주화시키고 그 체제를 변혁할 수 있는 범 유럽 좌파 운동을 펼치자는 것이다. AEiP 에 소속된 좌파들은 브렉시트가 이러한 유럽연합 내부 국제운동을 활성화시킬 것이라고 믿고 있다.


제레미 코빈 (영국 노동당 대표)은 보수당 데이비드 캐머론과 다른 방식으로 브렉시트를 반대하고 있다. 


3. 에드 룩스비 Ed Rooksby 평가 - 잔류파와 탈퇴파 모두 난제에 빠지다. 


브렉시트를 범 유럽 좌파 운동의 한 기회로 삼자는 AEiP 주장에 동감하지만, 다음과 같은 문제점들이 있다.


(1) 유럽연합의 좌파적 개조 (유럽연합 잔류) 주창자들은 유럽연합이 국내 자본축적 뿐만 아니라 국제적인 자본축적 필수조건들과 강력하게 연계되어 있다는 사실을 과소평가하고 있다. 유럽연합 그 자체가 유럽 자본의 지배적인 분파의 헤게모니를 조직하고 뿌리내리기 위해서 자본축적 필수조건들을 통합적이고 일관된 전략들로 전환시키는 역할을 하고 있다. 유럽연합이 신-자유주의적 ‘긴축 정책’을 전 유럽으로 확산시키는 ‘전파자 vector’역할을 하고 있는 사실을 과소평가하고 있다. 


(2) 또한 AEiP 접근 방식이 간과하고 있는 사실은  유럽 연합이 명시적으로  유럽연합 국가들의 불평등한 정치적 권력관계들을 표방하고 있다는 것이다.   


(3) 유럽연합 기구들이 유럽연합 민중들의 통제 하에 있는 것이 아니다. 유럽연합 기구들(제도들)의 정당성이 결여되어 있다. 국민 투표로 선출되지 않은 유럽연합 집행위원회 (EU Commission)가 막대한 권력을 행사할 수 있고, 이에 비해 유럽연합 의회 권력은 상대적으로 약하다. 


(4) 유럽연합 유지와 개혁을 동시에 달성하자는 유럽 좌파의 난제는 이민자 문제이다. 왜냐하면 유럽연합 내부 국경 이동 자유는 확대되었지만, 유럽 연합 외부자들에게 그 이동의 자유는 유럽연합 내부인들의 자유보다 훨씬 더 적기 때문이다. 현재 가장 큰 주제로 떠오르고 있는 ‘이민자’ 문제를 어떻게 해결할 것인가? 문제가 여전히 남는다.


(5) 유럽연합 잔류를 주장하는 좌파가 진짜 걱정하는 것은 유럽연합 탈퇴 (브렉시트)를 주장하는 우파가 승리해버리는 것이다. 브렉시트를 주도하는 세력은 반동적이고 정치적으로 위험한 사상들을 내포하고 있다. 브렉시트 담론을 형성하고 주도하고 있는 세력들은 강경 우파들이다. 보수당 데이비드 캐머론은 브렉시트를 국민투표에 부친 것 자체가 의미하는 것은, 데이비드 케머론이 보수당 내부 강경파에게 밀리고 있거나 정치적으로 열세라는 사실이다. 

 


 4. 제임스 버틀러 James Butler 가 지적한 렉시트 딜레마


브렉시트를 주도하고 있는 영국독립당 (UKIP)의 정치적 노선은 반-이민자 정책인데, 브렉시트를 유럽연합 자본과 영국 자본 권력을 축소시키는 계기가 될 것이고 보는 좌파들이 표면상으로 국민투표에서 ‘영국의 유럽연합 탈퇴’ 찬성을 외치는 동지가 되고 있다.


국민투표는 찬성과 반대만 적혀져 있는 객관식 문제이지, 정치적 입장을 표명하는 주관적인 선호도 주관식이 아니다. (Referendums don’t register subjective preferences) 




5. 브렉시트가 미칠 국내 국제 정치-경제적 영향들


(1) 영국내 보수당 지도자 그룹 변화 : 데이비드 캐머론 (유럽연합 잔류 주장 보수파)의 퇴장과 강경 우파의 등장 


(2) 보리스 존슨과 같은 강경 우파는 1980년대 마가렛 쌔처가 이루지 못한 ‘쌔처리즘’을 적극적으로 극단적으로 밀어부칠 것이다.


(3) 브렉시트는 유럽 연합 내부 국가들에도 영향을 미칠 것이다. 프랑스 우파 마리 르 펜 (Marine Le Pen) 의 국민전선 (NF), 독일의 민족주주의적 우파 “독일 대안 AfD”, 그리고 오스트리아 우파 정당인 “오스트리아 자유당  APF” 의 정치적 영향력이 커질 것이다. 


따라서 좌파적인 브렉시트 (렉시트)를 주창하는 사람들은 이러한 브렉시트의 결과들에 대해서 심각하게 고려해야 할 것이다. 국민투표 용지에 적혀져 있는 것은 “브렉시트”이지, “좌파적인 브렉시트”가 아니다. 따라서 브렉시트에 좌파적으로 찬성한다는 주장은 현재 브렉시트를 주도하고 있는 강경 우파의 브렉시트 찬성표와 구별이 되지 않는다. 


현재로는 “별로 좋은 결과를 낳지 않을 것 같은” 유럽연합 잔류 주장보다는 “별로 좋은 결과를 낳지 않을 것 같은” 유럽연합 탈퇴가 더 나쁜 결과를 초래할 것이다.


The likely bad consequences of a Leave vote seems to me to be much worse than the likely bad consequences of a victory for Remain.  



.

<6월 23일, 영국 국민투표, 브렉시트 주도자, 우파 영국 독립당 나이젤 패래지> 


"우리나라를 뒤돌려 달라 !"




.

우파적 브렉시트를 주창하는 영국독립당 소속 한 지지자가 나치를 상징하는 스와스티카 플래카드를 내걸었다.




.


제레미 코빈은 유럽연합의 좌파적 개혁을 주창했다. 그리고 유럽연합 내부 국가들, 프랑스, 이태리, 독일 등은 중국의 철강산업과의 경쟁에서 나름대로 잘 방어하고 있다고 평가하고, 유럽연합 잔류가 영국 철강 산업 방어에 유리할 것이라고 봤다.



.


6월 23일 브렉시트 국민투표 결과 반응들 - 영국 시민들 표정 


자료들





.


Posted by NJ원시

댓글을 달아 주세요