정책비교/국제정치2020. 11. 12. 02:44
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미국 메인 주와 네브라스카 주에서 전체 인민(대중 직접)투표와 선거인단 분리 제도. '분리 선거 투표' 제도


메인 주와 네브라스카 주를 제외하고는, 나머지 48개 주와 와싱턴 D.C(3개)에서 선거인단 배정 방식은 승자독식이다. 즉 1등을 한 후보가 각 주에 지정되어 있는 선거인단을 독식한다.


메인 주와 네브라스카 주는 그 주에서 1등을 한 후보에게 선거인단 2석을 배정한다. 

선거인단 1석은 각 하원 지역구 1등에게 할당된다. (메인 주는 하원 지역구가 2개, 네브라스카 주 하원 지역구는 3개이다) 


2020년 대선에서, 메인 주는 총 4개의 선거인단을 보유하고 있는데, 메인 주에서 바이든이 1등을 했기 때문에, 선거인단 2석이 배정되고, 메인 주에서 하원 지역구 2군데 중 1곳은 공화당이 1등을 해서 선거인단 1석이 배정되고, 다른 하원 지역구에서는 민주당이 1등을 해서 선거인단 1석이 배정되었다. 따라서 총 4개 선거인단 중 3개는 바이든에게, 1개는 트럼프에게 배정되었다.


네브라스카 주의 경우, 주 인민(보통,직접 popular vote) 투표에서는 트럼프가 1등이기 때문에, 선거인단 2석이 우선 배정되고, 하원 지역구 3곳 중에서 민주당이 1곳에서 1등을 했고, 두 군데 지역구는 트럼프가 1등을 해서, 2개 선거인단을 확보했다. 

따라서 총 5개 선거인단 중, 4개는 트럼프에게, 1개는 민주당 바이든에게 할당되었다.



메인 주는 1972년 대선 전에 이 제도를 도입했고, 네브라스카 주는 1992년 대선부터 이 제도를 실시했다.


인민 혹은 대중 직접투표와 '선거인단' 을 분리한 이 제도를 실시한 결과는 어떻게 되었는가? 2008년 민주당 버락 오바마가 네브라스카 주에서 1개 선거인단을 확보하게 되었는데, 이는 1964년 민주당 후보가 최초로 얻은 선거인단이었다. 네브라스카 주에 있는 2번째 하원 지역구 (오마하와 그 교외 지역)에서 오바마가 1등을 했다.


2016년 대선에서 트럼프는 메인 주의 2번째 하원 지역구 (포트랜드, 오거스타, 해안가 지역)에서 1등을 해서, 선거인단 1석을 배정받았다. 메인 주에서 공화당 선거인단을 배출한 것은 1988년 이후 처음이었다. 


각 주의 대통령 선거인단 선출 방식은 주의회 권한이다. 


2020 대선, 네브라스카 주, 오마하가 속한 더글라스 카운티 (네브라스카 하원 2번째 선거구임) 에서 바이든이 1등을 차지했기 때문에,  바이든이 선거인단 1석을 차지함.






2020년 연방 하원 (House) 선거, 네브라스카 주의 경우, 3곳 모두 공화당 후보가 당선되었다. 네브라스카 제 2 하원 지역구에서, 대략 4%의 유권자가 대선에서는 민주당에게, 연방 하원 선거에서는 공화당에게 투표했음을 알 수 있다.








메인 주, 2020 대선 결과


메인 주의 경우, 4개의 총 선거인단 배정.

인민(대중 직접) 투표에서 바이든이 53.5%로 1등을 했기 때문에, 2개의 선거인단이 배정됨. 그리고 2개의 하원 선거구에서, 북부 지방 하원 선거구에서는 트럼프가 1등을 해서, 1개 선거인단을 확보하고, 남쪽 지방 하원 선거구에서는 바이든이 1등을 해서 1개 선거인단을 배정받음. 





메인 주 상원 1명은 공화당이 당선됨. (클릭시 확대)






메인 주 하원 선거, 2명 모두 민주당 당선




Split Electoral Votes in Maine and Nebraska


In all but two states, electoral votes are 'winner-take-all'. The candidate winning the popular vote normally receives* all of that state's votes. 


Maine and Nebraska have taken a different approach. Using the 'congressional district method', these states allocate two electoral votes to the state popular vote winner, and then one electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each Congressional district (2 in Maine, 3 in Nebraska). This creates multiple popular vote contests in these states, which could lead to a split electoral vote. 



Maine enacted this rule in advance of the 1972 presidential election, while Nebraska enacted it starting with the 1992 election. 



A split has occurred once in each of these states. In 2008, Barack Obama won Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (Omaha and its suburbs), gaining a Democratic electoral vote in that state for the first time since 1964. 



In 2016, Donald Trump won Maine's 2nd Congressional District, which covers most of the state away from Portland, Augusta and nearby coastal areas. Statewide, Maine last voted Republican in 1988.


Our 2020 electoral map lets you split each district individually.


 Keep in mind that absent a significant third party vote, it is mathematically impossible for the popular vote winner of the state to do so without winning at least one district.


State legislatures decide how to allocate electoral college votes. There have been occasional efforts to change allocation methods over the years.


 These usually arise when the party of the losing presidential candidate differs from the party controlling the state legislature.


 If you'd like to learn more about some of the alternative methods that have been proposed and see how the 2012 and 2016 elections would have turned out if some or all of the states had used these different methods, visit our Gaming the Electoral College feature. 


* 2016 saw seven electors cast their votes for someone other than to whom they were pledged. This was a historically high number; 'faithless electors' have been quite rare in modern times. Most elections have none. In any case, this kind of 'split' is different than that enacted into law by Maine and Nebraska.  

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정책비교/국제정치2020. 11. 4. 17:32
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2020 미국 대선 일정, 12월 8일까지, 대선 관련 모든 법정 논쟁이 완료되어야 한다. 트럼프가 펜실베니아 주 등에서 실시한 부재자 투표(absentee ballots)와 우편 투표에 항의해, 미 대법원에 법정 투쟁할 것이라고 발표함.



https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/the-electoral-college.aspx


Overview


The Electoral College is a unique method for indirectly electing the president of the United States. It was established by Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 of the U.S. Constitution and modified by the 12th and 23rd Amendments.


The Electoral College consists of a total of 538 members, one for each U.S. senator and representative, and three additional electors representing the District of Columbia. Each state has a number of electoral votes equal to the combined total of its congressional delegation, and each state legislature is free to determine the method it will use to select its own electors.


Currently, all states select electors through a popular vote (although how that vote works can differ), but that was not always the case throughout American history. In many states, the state legislature selected electors, a practice which was common until the mid-1800s.


The Electoral College in 2020

The following is a summary of how the Electoral College will work in the 2020 presidential election:


Spring and Summer 2020: Nomination of Electors. The political parties in each state nominate their electors. Parties and states have different ways of going about this, but a party's presidential electors are generally loyal or consistent party members. The parties want to be sure they can rely on their electors to cast their votes for the party's nominee for president.



Nov. 3, 2020: Election Day, when voters in each state will select their presidential electors. The names of electors are not on the ballot in most states. Rather, when a voter casts a vote for a presidential candidate, s/he is also casting a vote for the electors already selected by the party of that candidate. If a majority of voters in a state vote for the Republican candidate for president, the Republican slate of electors is elected. If a majority vote for the Democratic candidate, the Democratic slate of electors is chosen.



Dec. 8, 2020: Deadline for Resolving Election Disputes. All state recounts and court contests over presidential election results must be completed by this date. (3 U.S.C. § 5).


 For the majority of states the date of certification is the same as for all contests, but in eight states there is a deadline that either directly references 3 USC §5 or uses similar language, requiring that disputes surrounding the selection of presidential electors be resolved in time to meet the “safe harbor” deadline: Indiana, Iowa, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. For detailed information on state post-election processes, please visit this page.



Dec. 14, 2020: Meeting of the Electors. The electors meet in each state and cast their ballots for president and vice president. Each elector votes on his or her own ballot and signs it. The ballots are immediately transmitted to various people: one copy goes to the president of the U.S. Senate (who is also the vice president of the United States);


 this is the copy that will be officially counted later. Other copies go to the state's secretary of state, the National Archives and Records Administration, and the presiding judge in the district where the electors meet (this serves as a backup copy that would replace the official copy sent to the president of the Senate if it is lost or destroyed).


Dec. 23, 2020: Deadline for Receipt of Ballots. The electors' ballots from all states must be received by the president of the Senate by this date. There is no penalty for missing this deadline.


Jan. 6, 2021: Counting of the Electoral Ballots. The U.S. Congress meets in joint session to count the electoral votes.


Jan. 20, 2021: Inauguration Day.  The president-elect becomes the president of the United States.


Nomination of Electors


The U.S. Constitution does not specify procedures for the nomination of candidates for presidential elector. The two most common methods the states have adopted are nomination by state party convention and by state party committee. Generally, the parties select members known for their loyalty and service to the party, such as party leaders, state and local elected officials and party activists. 


In some states, the electors’ names appear on the ballot along with the names of the candidates for president and vice president. However, in most states, electors' names are not printed on the ballot. When a voter casts a vote for a candidate for President of the United States, s/he is in actuality casting a vote for the presidential electors who were selected by that candidate's party.


Awarding Electoral Votes



All 50 states and the District of Columbia use one of two methods for awarding their electoral votes:



The Winner-Take-All System


In 48 states and the District of Columbia, when a candidate for president wins a state's popular vote, that party's slate of electors will be the ones to cast the vote for president of the United States in December. For example, Florida has 29 electoral votes. If President Donald Trump wins the state’s popular vote on Nov. 3, the 29 electors nominated by the Republican Party in Florida will be selected. These 29 people will gather on Dec. 14 to cast their votes for president of the United States.


The District System


Maine and Nebraska are the only states that do not use a winner-take-all system. Instead, in these two states, one electoral vote is awarded to the presidential candidate who wins the popular vote in each congressional district, and the remaining two electoral votes are awarded to the candidates receiving the most votes statewide.


 This is known as the district system. It is possible under the district system to split the electoral vote for the state. This happened in 2008 in Nebraska: Barack Obama won the electoral vote in the congressional district including Omaha, while John McCain won in the state's other two districts and won the statewide vote as well, securing the state's two at-large votes. Thus, when the Nebraska presidential electors met in December 2008, there were four Republican electors and one Democrat. That election was the first time Nebraska's electoral vote was split.


 




 


Proposed Changes to the Electoral College



In the years since the highly controversial 2000 presidential election, bills have been introduced in every state in the country to change the process for selecting electors.


 During the period of 2001-2006, most Electoral College reform bills proposed switching to the district system. 


None of these bills passed. In the years since, attention has largely shifted to the National Popular Vote (NPV). This is an idea that would allow states to bypass the Electoral College without amending the U.S. Constitution. 


When a state joins the NPV Compact, it promises that it will give all of its electoral votes to the party that wins the national popular vote, rather than the party that wins the state popular vote.


 For instance, if the Democratic candidate won the popular vote in California, but the Republican candidate won the popular vote nationwide, California would be required to send the Republican slate of electors to the meeting of the electors. The NPV has not yet taken effect; states with a total of at least 270 electoral votes must join before it can function. Read more about the National Popular Vote.



The idea of abolishing the Electoral College and instead electing the president by direct popular vote comes about every few years. Abolishing the Electoral College requires an amendment to the US Constitution. There are two ways to do that:



Congress can propose an amendment by a two-thirds vote of both chambers. The amendment then has to be ratified by the legislatures of three-fourths of the states. All existing amendments to the Constitution were made in this manner.


The legislatures of two-thirds of the states can petition Congress to convene a Constitutional Convention. At a Constitutional Convention, any part of the Constitution could be amended; action is not restricted to the sections governing the Electoral College or any other part of the Constitution. Again, any proposed amendment would have to be ratified by three-fourths of the states. This method has never been invoked.


Faithless Electors



There is no federal law or constitutional provision requiring electors to vote for the party that nominated them, and over the years a number of electors have voted against the instructions of the voters. 



In 2004, a Minnesota elector nominated by the Democratic Party cast a ballot for John Edwards, the vice presidential running mate of John Kerry--thought to be an accident. Electors generally are selected by the political party for their party loyalty, and many are party leaders, and thus not likely to vote other than for their party's candidate.



In 2016, there were seven faithless electors, the most since 1972—three Democratic electors from Washington state cast their votes for Republican Colin Powell, instead of Democrat Hillary Clinton; 


one Democratic elector from Washington state cast his vote for Faith Spotted Eagle, a woman who is a member of the Yankton Sioux Nation; one Democratic elector from Hawaii cast his vote for Bernie Sanders, instead of Hillary Clinton; one Republican elector from Texas cast his vote for John Kasich, instead of Donald Trump; 


and one Republican elector from Texas cast his vote for Libertarian Ron Paul. The last time an elector crossed party lines was in 1972, when an elector nominated by the Republican Party cast his ballot for the Libertarian ticket.



Some states have passed laws that require their electors to vote as pledged. These laws may either impose a fine on an elector who fails to vote according to the statewide or district popular vote, or may disqualify an elector who violates his or her pledge and provide a replacement elector. In July 2020, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that it is constitutional for states to enact this type of law. The states with laws that attempt to bind the votes of presidential electors are below:



States With Laws


 That Attempt to Bind the Votes of Presidential Electors


Alabama (Ala. Code §17-14-31)


Mississippi (Miss. Code Ann. §208.46)

Alaska (Alaska Stat. §15.30.090)


Montana (Mont. Code Ann. §13-25-307)


Arizona (Ariz. Rev. Stat. §16-212)

Nebraska (Neb. Rev. Stat. §32-714)

California (Cal. Elec. Code §6906)

Nevada (Nev. Rev. Stat. §298.075)


Colorado (Colo. Rev. Stat. §1-4-304)

New Mexico (N.M. Stat. Ann. §1-15-9)


Connecticut (Conn. Gen. Stat. §9-176)

North Carolina (N.C. Gen. Stat. §163-212)


Delaware (Del. Code Ann. tit. 15, §4303(b))


Oklahoma (Okla. Stat. tit.26 §10-102)

District of Columbia (D.C. Code §1-1001.08)

Ohio (Ohio Rev. Code §3505.40)

Florida (Fla. Stat. §103.021)

Oregon (Or. Rev. Stat. §248.355)

Hawaii (Haw. Rev. Stat. §14-28)

South Carolina (S.C. Code Ann. §7-19-80)

Indiana (Ind. Code §3-10-4-1.7)

Tennessee (Tenn. Code Ann. §2-15-104)

Iowa (Iowa Code §54.8)

Maine (Me. Stat. tit.21-A, §805)

Vermont (Vt. Stat. Ann. §2732)

Maryland (Md. Code Ann. §8-505)

Virginia (Va. Code Ann. §24.2-203)

Massachusetts (Mass Gen. Laws ch.53, §8)

Washington (Wash. Rev. Code §29A.56.090)

Michigan (Mich. Comp. Laws §168.47)

Wisconsin (Wis. Stat. §7.75)

Minnesota (Minn. Stat. §208.46)

Wyoming (Wyo. Stat. Ann. §22-19-108)

 


Most of the laws cited above require electors to vote for the candidate of the party that nominated the elector, or require the elector to sign a pledge to do so. Some go further: Oklahoma imposes a civil penalty of $1,000; 


in North Carolina, the fine is $500, the faithless elector is deemed to have resigned, and a replacement is appointed.


 In South Carolina, an elector who violates his or her pledge is subject to criminal penalties, and in New Mexico a violation is a fourth degree felony. In Michigan, a candidate who fails to vote as required is considered to have resigned, and a replacement is appointed




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