한국정치 노트 Notes on the Politics of Korea

왜 나경원은 박정희-전두환 독재시대 '반공 웅변 대회 소녀'로 뻔뻔하게, 그리고 과감하게 돌변했는가? 박근혜 탄핵 2년 만에. 

나경원 자유한국당 원내 대표 연설은 '주어'가 오늘도 없었다. 

북미회담 성공과 남북한 평화체제를 만들기 위한 문재인 정부 외교를 좌파정권의 북한 퍼주기라고 비난했다. 

나경원 의원은 주어와 목적어를 불명확하게 한 채로, 대한민국 대통령이 북한 김정은 수석 대변인이라는 소리를 듣지 않게 해달라고 말했다. 이를 듣던 의원들이 나경원 의원에게 야유를 퍼붓자, "외신 보도에서 그랬다"고 나경원은 둘러댔다. 


나경원 의원은 무책임하게 '주어'와 '목적어'를 명확하게 지시하지 않는 발언으로 악명이 높다. 2018년 12월 연동형 비례대표제를 적극 검토한다고 서명했다가, 2019년 비례대표제도를 아예 폐지하자고 뻔뻔하게 180도 방향을 바꾸기도 한다. 


향후 자유한국당의 전술은 간단하다.


(1) 북미회담이 지지부진해지고, 북한과 미국의 기싸움이 팽팽해지면서, 외교적 관계 성과가 나오지 않는 틈을 타서, "문재인 정부를 좌파 정권, 북한에게 퍼주기만 하는 무능 정권"으로 비난한다


(2) 소득분배, 자산불평등 개선 노력들을 "사유권 찬탈"과 "자본주의 시장 경제제도의 부정"으로 규정한다. 원래부터 자본주의 시장 제도를 옹호하는 소득주도 성장론 자체를 좌파 노선으로 둔갑시켜 비난하면서 '경제는 자유한국당이 잘한다'는 것을 퍼뜨린다.



문재인 정부의 소득/자산 불평등 개선 노력들이 지지부진하고, 그 결과도 피부에 와 닿지 않았고, 최저임금 인상율 논란에 뒷걸음질만 쳐 버렸기 때문에, 정책 일관성도 떨어지고 말았다. 


불행하게도 열린우리당 노무현 정부 당시 벌어졌던 정치적 비극들이 2019년에 와서도 거의 유사하게 벌어지고 있다. 


문재인 정부가 경제성장율 수치만 올리는데 급급한 정책들을 구사하지 말고, 소득과 자산 불평등을 줄일 수 있는 정책들을 일관되게 밀고 나가지 않는다면, 노무현 참여정부의 실패의 길을 갈 수도 있다.



그렇다고 해서 자유한국당의 지지율이 계속해서 상승할 수 있을 것인가? 그렇지 않다. 북미회담 성공, 비핵화 현실화, 북미수교 체결, 남북경협에 대한 국민의 지지율은 70%에 가깝다. 친미-반북-시민사회 집단은 한국 인구의 15% 정도이다. 시간이 지날수록 이 숫자는 줄어들 것이다. 


자유한국당이 문재인 대통령의 화해 분위기 조성과 평화체제 구축 및 남북경협 시도를 '김정은 수석대변인'으로 폄훼한다면, 자유한국당의 지지율은 30%를 넘지 못하고 15%~25% 사이를 오락가락 할 가능성이 크다. 


촛불 시위와 박근혜 탄핵 시기만 하더라도, 재기가 불가능할 것 같았던 자유한국당이 되살아나고 있는 점은 문재인 정부, 무능한 민주당, 그리고 민주화 운동의 내실을 채우지 못하는 정의당과 같은 진보정당의 정치적 힘없음 때문이다.


박근혜 탄핵 운동에 나섰던 시민들의 정치적, 경제적 개혁과 변화 열망을 담을 수 있는 선거법 개혁, 소득과 자산의 불평등 개선,

정부의 일방적 독주가 아닌 '노동자-정부-사측(노사정)' 타협 모델 수립, 남북화해와 북미회담의 성공 개최로 평화체제 구축과 남북경협을 통해 새로운 한반도 체제 형성 등이 시급히 실천되어야 한다.















 




Comment +0

싱가포르 수상 리센룽(Lee Hsien Loong)이 북미회담 개최 161억 사용하고, 161조 효과내고 있다. 


하필이면 북미회담 장소가 싱가포르였을까?


북미회담 장소는 평양, DMZ, 와싱턴 D.C가 가장 좋다.


싱가포르가 이번 북미회담을 개최하는 것을 보면, 올림픽 개최와도 비슷해 보였다.


싱가포르 무역 통상 국가답게 장사 잘 한다.


이번 1차 북미회담은 야구로 치면 1회 2회 정도이고, 향후 평양 주체탑과 와싱턴 D.C 알링턴 국립묘지 (Arlington National Cemetery)에서 트럼프와 김정은이 만나는 순간이 6회,7회가 되지 않을까?



(사진:싱가포르 시내에서  2018 6-12 북미회담, 트럼프-김정은 글귀가 씌여진 커피 잔을 한 여성이 들고 있다)






Trump Kim summit: US and N Korean leaders arrive in Singapore

Kim Jong-un walking off his plane in SingaporeImage copyrightSINGAPORE/MOCI
Image captionKim Jong-un arrived ahead of US President Donald Trump

US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un have arrived in Singapore for their historic summit.

Mr Trump flew in aboard Air Force One, a few hours after Mr Kim touched down with his entourage.

Their meeting - the first between a leader from the North and a sitting US president - will take place on Tuesday on the resort island of Sentosa.

Mr Trump described it as a "one-time shot" at peace and said the two were in "unknown territory".

The US hopes the summit will kick-start a process that eventually sees Mr Kim give up nuclear weapons.

The two leaders have had an extraordinary up-and-down relationship over the past 18 months, trading insults and threatening war before abruptly changing tack and moving towards a face-to-face meeting.

Media captionKim Jong-un's running bodyguards put in an appearance ahead of the scheduled summit with Donald Trump

Mr Kim met Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong after he arrived. Mr Trump is also due to meet Prime Minister Lee before the summit begins.


Waiting for Kim

Rupert Wingfield-Hayes, BBC News, Singapore

For much of the day we've been playing "guess the plane". Three aircraft took off from Pyongyang, heading for Singapore.

The first was an Ilyushin transport plane. That was easy - it would be carrying Kim Jong-un's armoured limousine. Next came an Air China 747, which normally carries Chinese President Xi Jinping. Surely this would be carrying Mr Kim?

But then a surprise - Kim Jong-un's personal jet, a Soviet-era Ilyushin 62, also took to the air. Was he actually on that, or was it a decoy? It being North Korea, no-one was telling us.

Singapore's foreign minister finally gave the game away, posting a photo of him greeting Kim on Instagram. It was, after all, the Air China 747.

It's been the same story with Mr Kim's hotel. That too is a secret. But then we spotted North Korean cameramen standing outside the St Regis Hotel. It was a pretty good clue. When Kim's motorcade arrived there was another little surprise - he wasn't in his normal Mercedes.

Instead he was riding an even fancier Maybach. It's not clear where it comes from. But it is clear that when it comes to planes and limos, Kim Jong-un has no intention of being outshone by President Trump.


How did we get here?

Mr Trump's first year in office was marked by bitter exchanges with Mr Kim as North Korea conducted several ballistic missile tests in defiance of international warnings.

The US president vowed to unleash "fire and fury" if Pyongyang kept threatening the US. He also referred to Mr Kim as "little rocket man".

In return, Mr Kim called him "mentally deranged" and a "dotard".

Despite the White House's "maximum pressure" campaign, the North remained defiant and carried out its sixth nuclear test in September 2017. Soon after, Mr Kim declared that his country had achieved its mission of becoming a nuclear state, with missiles that could reach the US.

Media captionTrump-Kim summit: Can you achieve peace on a plate?

But in early 2018, North Korea began attempts to improve relations with South Korea by sending a team and delegates to the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang.

In March, Mr Trump surprised the world by accepting an invitation from Mr Kim - delivered via Seoul - to meet in person.

Since then, the path to the summit has been rocky, with Mr Trump at one point calling it off completely. But after some diplomatic scrambling, the two leaders will now sit down together.

Singapore is only the third country Mr Kim has visited since he became leader in 2011.

He made his first trip abroad as leader to China in March, and in April he became the first North Korean leader to step foot in South Korea when he met South Korean President Moon Jae-in at Panmunjom on their mutual border.

It is thought that Mr Kim went to boarding school in Switzerland. Recently, South Korea provided him with Swiss rösti at a summit meeting.


Read more about the summit here:


What do the two sides want?



Media captionThe three things North Korea wants

The US wants North Korea to get rid of its nuclear weapons in an irreversible manner that can be verified internationally. Only when steps begin to be taken in that direction will it "receive relief" from the grip of UN sanctions, Defence Secretary Jim Mattis recently said.

But this does not mean the US is expecting to get a final deal in Singapore. President Trump has described it as a "get-to-know-you situation" and said: "It's going to be a process."

Analysts say that Mr Kim, by winning the prestige of a meeting with the world's most powerful leader, has already gained a victory. They also question why he would give up his nuclear weapons after pushing so hard to get them.

Some say he would never do it, unless everyone else on the Korean peninsula disarmed too - including the US.

Image copyrightREUTERS
Image captionThe fine details of the summit have been worked out, even down to the recyclable cups

However, Mr Kim has also said he now wants to focus on building the North Korean economy - and thus wants sanctions relief and international investment.

The question is what concessions he is willing to make, and whether he will stick to any promises. Pledges to scrap the nuclear programme have been made before by his predecessors.

What could actually happen?

It's hard to say, but Mr Trump has signalled that they could sign an agreement to formally end the Korean War, which ended in a truce in 1953. Doing that, would probably be "the easy part", he said.

The US president has also said that if he thinks things are going badly, he will walk out of the meeting, but if things go well, Mr Kim could receive an invitation to the White House.


Comment +0

윤영관 발표 요지 1) 북미 회담에 회의적 시각도 있다. 3가지 주장들이다. 북한이 완전하고 검증가능하고 비가역적인 핵폐기 CVID 를 받아들일 것인가 2) 북핵 폐기 사찰에 대해 어느 정도까지 북한이 허용할 것인가? 존 볼튼이 주장한 intrusive nuclear inspection 즉 사찰단이 북한에 들어가 직접 핵무기와 핵탄두를 조사 검사하고, 미국으로 반출까지 한다는 그런 사찰 방식에 동의할 것인가? 라는 질문에 북한은 그렇게 까지 할 것 같지 않다. 3) 북한의 '비핵화' 개념과 미국의 '비핵화' 개념이 다르다. 북한의 '한반도 비핵화' 개념 안에는 주한 미군 철수, 한미일 동맹 체제 해체 등이 포함되어 있기 때문이다. 


이러한 회의론에도 불구하고, 북미 회담이 성공하기 위해서는 트럼프와 김정은의 대담하고 통큰 (bold) 정치적 결단이 필요하다.

북한과 미국과의 한국전쟁 종언 선언 ending the Korean war, 북미 수교를 목표로 하는 북미 연락사무소 설치 opening liaison office , 북한에 대한 경제제재 완화 및 철폐가 필요하다.


 






 

Getting to Yes With Kim Jong-un

 

There are of course no guarantees that Donald Trump’s upcoming summit with the North Korean leader will succeed. What is clear is that successful denuclearization will require a combination of bold political decisions – say, formally ending the Korean War, opening liaison offices, or relaxing some economic sanctions – and realistic prudence.


SEOUL – Has North Korea’s ruler, Kim Jong-un, made a strategic decision to trade away his nuclear program, or is he just engaged in another round of deceptive diplomacy, pretending that he will denuclearize in exchange for material benefits for his impoverished country?


This is, perhaps, the key question in the run-up to the summit between Kim and US President Donald Trump in Singapore on June 12. Until then, no one will know the answer, perhaps not even Kim himself.


Optimists tend to believe that Kim’s declared intention to denuclearize is sincere. They highlight the fact that North Korea’s economy has changed fundamentally since he succeeded his father, Kim Jong-il, in 2011. It is now more open, with foreign trade accounting for almost half of GDP, the result of a gradual marketization process that began in the mid-1990s. But with this openness comes vulnerability, which explains Kim’s active diplomatic efforts to prevent serious economic disruption from the existing international sanctions regime.



Unlike his father, the 34-year-old Kim has been active in pursuing pro-market economic growth and may be aiming to emulate Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China’s reforms in the late 1970s. Kim’s recent sacking of three senior old-guard military officials may hint that he is ready to offer some important concessions to prepare a favorable diplomatic environment for concentrating on economic development. The key question remains whether Trump is now ready to embrace Kim’s North Korea as President Richard Nixon did with Deng’s China.



Pessimists, however, caution against believing that Kim is serious about denuclearization. There is so far no evidence, they argue, that Kim is different from his father (and grandfather, Kim Il-sung), when it comes to adhering to international agreements. They are skeptical, for example, that North Korea will cooperate fully on three major issues.



First, despite Kim’s declaration, it remains unclear whether he is agreeing to “complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement” (CVID) of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. His commitment remains aspirational and lacks substance or operational content. Second, given North Korea’s bad track record, the pessimists think it unlikely that Kim will permit intrusive nuclear inspections, which is a critical component of CVID. Finally, North Korea has not yet clarified the terms of its denuclearization. Its past official position –withdrawal of US troops from South Korea and an end to the bilateral alliance, would be a non-starter.



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But there may be a way to achieve denuclearization that satisfies both optimists and pessimists. To find it requires taking a step back and considering the most fundamental reason for the diplomatic failures of the last three decades: the high level of mutual distrust, which has made a small and weak country like North Korea, surrounded by big powers, paranoid about its own security. In order to address this problem at the root, the US should have taken a political approach, rather than focusing repeatedly on concluding a narrowly defined military-security deal.




For example, President George H.W. Bush’s administration declined North Korea’s offer to establish diplomatic relations in 1991-92, when the fall of the Soviet Union heightened Kim Il-sung’s sense of insecurity. Likewise, North Korea’s major complaint regarding the October 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework was that the US did not keep its promise to improve political relations with North Korea. The Clinton administration tried a political approach in 2000, but it was too little too late.



The first Trump-Kim summit may not be able to resolve all three major issues dividing the US and North Korea all at once. But that does not mean the summit will be a failure. For the first time, the US is tackling the fundamental cause of the North Korea problem, rather than focusing on its symptoms. And this is why Trump’s seemingly impromptu decision to meet Kim face to face is meaningful and productive, especially if he can bolster Kim’s confidence that he and his regime will be safe without nuclear weapons and that the international community will help him to focus on economic growth.



That said, Trump would be well advised to leave the details of the denuclearization process in the hands of diplomats who have much experience in dealing with North Korea. In the meantime, he will need to rebuild an international coalition to maintain effective economic sanctions, which is the most powerful leverage for persuading Kim to accept CVID. Here, close cooperation with China will be essential. Moreover, the US should reward critical concessions by North Korea – for example, permission to conduct intrusive inspections of its entire nuclear program by international inspectors – even before the completion of CVID.



There are of course no guarantees that it will work. What is clear is that successful denuclearization of North Korea will require a combination of bold political decisions – say, formally ending the Korean War, opening liaison offices, or relaxing some economic sanctions – and realistic prudence.



Comment +0

문재인 대통령, "도널드 트럼프 노벨 평화상 받을 자격이 있다."

노벨 평화상은 매년 12월 10일에 발표된다.

2018년 12월 10일 과연 트럼프는 노벨 평화상을 받게 되는가?



<그림 설명>


청중들이 "노벨 노벨 노벨"을 외치자, 좋아하는 트럼프 트럼프가 너무 기쁜 나머지, 연설을 잠시 중단하고 청중들이 더 환호하도록 유도하려고 잠시 연단을 떠나는 퍼포먼스를 시연했다. 노벨 노벨 노벨을 연호하는 청중을 가리키며 '공감' '격려'를 표시하고 있다.



Trump deserves Nobel for role in talks with North, South Korea's leader says


By Judith Vonberg, CNN


Updated 12:38 PM ET, Mon April 30, 2018



Crowd chants 'Nobel!' mid-North Korea talks 01:37


(CNN)South Korean President Moon Jae-in said Monday that US President Donald Trump would be a worthy winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for his involvement in the warming of relations with North Korea.



A former South Korean President, Kim Dae-jung, won the prize in 2000 for his role in setting up a previous summit with North Korea, and his widow suggested Monday that Moon should also get the award.


Moon demurred in response, saying the US President ought to get it instead. "President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize. The only thing we need is peace," Moon said during a Cabinet meeting on Monday, according to the Blue House, the South Korean presidential office.


His remarks come three days after a historic summit that saw North Korean leader Kim Jong Un cross the border into South Korea for talks with his southern counterpart.


The two leaders spoke about the need for peace between their nations and pledged a "complete denuclearization" of the peninsula.


Moon has previously credited Trump with making a "huge" contribution to bringing the North and South together for the landmark talks.


During his New Year press conference in Seoul, the South Korean president praised Trump personally for his role in "(making) inter-Korean talks happen" and expressed his gratitude.


At the time, Moon's assessment of Trump's contribution to the diplomatic breakthrough contrasted with the view from Pyongyang, where the state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper on Monday criticized Trump for "boasting of 'diplomatic success,'" although it didn't mention the negotiations.


Trump has also been keen to take credit for the developments in inter-Korean relations. "With all of the failed "experts" weighing in, does anybody really believe that talks and dialogue would be going on between North and South Korea right now if I wasn't firm, strong and willing to commit our total 'might' against the North," he wrote on Twitter in January.


A meeting between Trump and Kim is currently being planned, although the US President has said he is wary about North Korea's approach.


"Maybe it will be wonderful. And maybe it won't," Trump said last week about his upcoming talks. "And if it's not going to be fair and reasonable and good, unlike past administrations, I will leave the table."


The Nobel Peace Prize is one of six awards given yearly by the Nobel Committee. Nobel prizes are usually announced in October but awarded annually on December 10, the anniversary of death of Alfred Nobel, who gives his name to the awards.


Previous winners of the Nobel Peace Prize have included Trump's predecessor, President Barack Obama, Pakistani activist Malala Yousafzai and Nelson Mandela.


버락 오바마, 파키스탄 출신 말라라 유자프자이, 넬슨 만델라 등이 노벨 평화상을 받은 바 있다.







청중들이 "노벨 노벨 노벨"을 외치자, 좋아하는 트럼프




트럼프가 너무 기쁜 나머지, 연설을 잠시 중단하고 청중들이 더 환호하도록 유도하려고 잠시 연단을 떠나는

퍼포먼스를 시연했다.




노벨 노벨 노벨을 연호하는 청중을 가리키며 '공감' '격려'를 표시하고 있다.



Comment +0



국무장관 렉스 틸러슨은 트럼프가 김정은과의 회담을 수락하는 것에 대해 언급했다. " 김정은과 회담 수락은 트럼프 혼자 결정한 것이다. 이런 북미회담은 트럼프가 오랫동안 생각해오고 있었다. 이런 것을 감안하면 그렇게 놀랄 일은 아니다."



한국 정의용 서훈 방미 특사팀은 김정은의 메시지를 전달한 이후, 적어도 2주 정도 후에 트럼프의 답변이 올 것으로 예상했다. 그러나 원래 금요일에 만나기로 한 약속을 목요일 오후로 앞당겨서, 트럼프는 한국 특사팀의 이야기를 듣고, 2시간 동안 한국과 미국 사이 의견 조율을 통해서, 전 세계에 트럼프와 김정은의 회담을 발표했다.


트럼프는 과거 미국 대통령과 정치 스타일이 다르다. 트럼프의 충동적이고 즉흥적인 정치 방식이 고스란히 반영된 사건이었다.







https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-trumps-decision-on-north-korea-the-world-glimpses-a-president-who-is-his-own-diplomat-negotiator-and-strategist/2018/03/09/1f5eb80a-23b7-11e8-94da-ebf9d112159c_story.html?

utm_term=.a128a89abe05



In Trump’s decision on North Korea, the world glimpses a president who is his own diplomat, negotiator and strategist

 3:39

  

Over the past six weeks, the Trump administration’s roster of Korea experts, already depleted, grew even thinner. The White House mysteriously dropped its choice for ambassador to Seoul. The State Department’s top North Korea specialist resigned. And the senior Asia director at the National Security Council was out the past two weeks on paternity leave.

But when a high-level South Korean delegation arrived at the White House on Thursday afternoon for two days of meetings over the North Korea threat, one person swooped in to fill the vacuum: President Trump.

In a stunning turn of events, Trump personally intervened in a security briefing intended for his top deputies, inviting the South Korean officials into the Oval Office, where he agreed on the spot to a historic but exceedingly risky summit with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. He then orchestrated a dramatic public announcement on the driveway outside the West Wing broadcast live on cable networks.

The news shocked Washington, Seoul and everywhere in between. But inside the White House, the president — whose exchange of taunts and threats with Kim has set Northeast Asia on edge over a potential military confrontation for months — was said to be reveling in his big reveal, which overshadowed the growing scandal surrounding his alleged affair with a pornographic film star and concerns with tariffs he announced earlier in the day.

Trump’s personal involvement in the White House’s deliberations over the world’s most serious and vexing security situation has placed a president who considers himself a master dealmaker into the most fraught faceoff of his 71 years. A breakthrough that would reduce Pyongyang’s nuclear threat would be a legacy-defining achievement. A stalemate that gives Kim a photo op for nothing in return could fracture U.S. alliances and be seen as a devastating embarrassment.

South Korean national security adviser Chung Eui-Yong speaks to reporters and members of the media outside the West Wing on Thursday. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

But what the whirlwind evening at the White House also illustrated was that in his un­or­tho­dox presidency, which centers so singularly on his force of personality, Trump has little worry about a dearth of qualified staff because he considers himself to be his own diplomat, negotiator and strategist.

“The president is the ultimate negotiator and dealmaker when it comes to any type of conversation,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said. “And we feel very confident in where we are.”

The question is where exactly is the Trump White House — and how did it get there?

The answer wasn’t clear Friday as Trump aides struggled to explain whether concrete steps from Pyongyang toward denuclearization were a precondition ahead of the summit, what the agenda of the talks will encompass and how a president known to disdain dense briefing books intends to prepare for an adversary that U.S. intelligence officials don’t know much about.

In fact, it was not the details of the planning process but rather Trump’s impulsive, improvisational style that was the biggest selling point as top aides fanned out to explain why the president had taken this enormous gamble. Asked why the administration did not engage in lower-level talks with the North to build out preconditions and an agenda for a leaders-level summit, one senior aide offered that Trump “was elected in part because he is willing to take approaches very, very different from past approaches and past presidents.”

Across Washington, foreign policy experts tried to make sense of the news, with many betting that the talks would not happen after the Trump team heard negative feedback from Tokyo, conservatives in Seoul opposed to President Moon Jae-in’s liberal government and some in Congress who fear the move is too rash.

The Japanese, who have been wary of offering Kim a propaganda platform, were blindsided by the news. Diplomats at the Japanese Embassy in Washington, gathered for a goodbye party for Ambassador Kenichiro Sasae on Thursday evening, scrambled to react when the news broke.

Trump hastily called Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and invited him to visit the White House in April to confer ahead of the summit with Kim, which officials said will take place by the end of May.

“Nobody thinks the North Koreans are serious in Japan,” said Michael Green, the NSC’s Asia director under President George W. Bush, who is meeting with officials in Tokyo this week. “Given how he blindsided the entire national security team . . . I would bet this does not happen.”

The South Koreans, who have fretted over Trump’s saber-rattling over the past several months, landed at Dulles International Airport midmorning Thursday. Perhaps battling jet lag after the 13-hour flight, they arrived at the White House in early afternoon for what they thought was the warm-up act: a meeting with Trump’s top aides, including Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan and Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats.

Led by South Korea’s national security adviser, Chung Eui-yong, the delegation’s aim was to debrief Trump’s team on the four-hour meeting Chung held with Kim in Pyongyang shortly after the Olympics, which had provided the two Koreas a chance to reopen a long-dormant diplomatic dialogue.

But what was supposed to be an hour-long briefing took an unexpected turn when Trump himself intervened midway through. The Koreans had been scheduled to see Trump on Friday, but the president had gotten wind of the meeting and told aides he wanted to get involved immediately.

In the Oval Office, Chung explained to Trump that he had brought with him a personal invitation from Kim for a meeting — a stunning offer given Kim has not met with any foreign heads of state since assuming control of the North after his father’s death in 2011.

Chung later told associates that he believed the South Koreans had a strong hand to play with Trump. The North Korean leader had agreed that joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises, which had been delayed because of the Olympics, could go on. And Kim pledged that the North would not take provocative actions, including missile tests, ahead of the summit.

The risks of such a meeting, however, were well known on the U.S. side: The North has violated past agreements to freeze its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, and no sitting American president has met with a North Korean leader over fears of being set up for failure.

Earlier this week, Vice President Pence, who was supposed to meet with North Korean officialsduring the Olympics to deliver a hard-line warning, vowed that the administration’s “posture toward the regime will not change until we see concrete steps toward denuclearization.” On Thursday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, traveling in Africa, told reporters that the administration was “a long ways from negotiations.”

In the Oval Office, some of Trump’s aides raised concerns, according to a person familiar with the discussion. But Trump, seated in an armchair next to Chung, with their aides arrayed on couches, dismissed their fears and “made the decision” on the spot.

Korea experts were dumbstruck by Trump’s impulsiveness.

“He’s much more of a TV personality than business person,” said Christopher R. Hill, who led the U.S. delegation in the six-party talks with the North during the Bush era that produced a weapons freeze that Pyongyang later violated. “This is not the art of a deal here — it’s the art of a teaser.”

The South Koreans, stunned they had gotten done in 45 minutes what they thought might take weeks, prepared to depart. But a White House aide asked them to stay because Trump, always aware of the production value of such a moment, had an additional request: Would they help draft a statement and read it to the press outside the West Wing?

Over nearly two hours, the two teams collaborated on a brief statement. Meanwhile, Trump popped his head into the White House briefing room — where he has never made remarks since taking office — and told reporters that the Koreans would be making a “major announcement” at 7 p.m.

A large group of reporters, which had spent most of the day focused on Trump’s morning announcement of new tariffs on steel and aluminum, assembled on the West Wing driveway at the “sticks” — journalist lingo for the bank of television microphones set up in case of impromptu press statements from White House visitors.

Shortly after the hour, with cable networks talking live to reporters in the driveway, a Marine guard opened the doors of the West Wing and Chung emerged, flanked by Suh Hoon, South Korea’s intelligence chief, and Cho Yoon-je, the South Korea ambassador to Washington. It was dark out and the camera lights cast a harsh light onto the officials.

Chung delivered the news in a 245-word statement. He took no questions.

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The cable stations turned quickly to their analytical panels. Diplomats lit up international phone lines. And White House aides praised the president for his artful turn from bellicosity to diplomacy.

“That’s a decision the president took himself,” Tillerson said Friday. “This is something that he’s had on his mind for quite some time, so it was not a surprise in any way.”

Josh Dawsey contributed to this report


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사라 샌더스 브리핑 나온 이유

(1)  트럼프와 김정은 회담 비판자들, “미국이 북한에게 공짜 선물 주는 것이다. A giveaway” 의 걱정을 잠재우기 위해서, 사라 샌더스 브리핑 나왔다.

 비판자들 “북한 김정은 정권이 몇 십년 동안 미국 대통령과 회담을 하려고 노력해오고 있는데, 이런 북한의 요구사항을 성급하게 들어주는 꼴이다.  미국이 북한으로부터 받는 것은 적다"고  불평. 


(2) 사라 샌더스 트럼프 태도 다시 강조


북한이 비핵화와 관련된 구체적인 절차와 행동을 취해야만 북한 김정은과 회담한다.

북한이 말한 약속을 지켜야 한다. 

김정은이 약속한 내용은 북미회담이 열리는 기간 동안에 핵실험과 미사일 실험을 중지(halt)하겠다. 북한이 핵 프로그램을 북미회담 이전에 ‘축소 scale back(down)’하겠다는 말은 하지 않았다. 김정은이 ‘비핵화’를 진지하게 실천하겠다고 말했지만, 트럼프와 회담 이전에 그 회담 선행 조건으로 ‘비핵화’를 할 것이라고는 말하지 않았다.


(3) 트럼프 행정부 정치 스타일

트럼프가 먼저 행동하고 난 이후에 그 스태프들은 나중에 뒷수습과 해명을 한다.


(4) 사라 샌더스 백악관 대변인 발표 내용과 국무장관 렉스 틸러슨의 인터뷰 내용과는 차이가 있다.


렉스 틸러슨 "미국은 북한과 ‘비핵화’ 관련 협상을 할 것이다. 미국 협상단과 북한 팀이 얼굴을 맞대고 직접 만날 때가는 미국이 어떤 조건들을 내걸 수 있을지 아직 정해진 바가 없다."


(5) 최악의 경우, 미국 행정부는 북미회담에서 발을 뺄 수도 있다.


북한이 취해야 할 구체적인 절차와 행동이 무엇이어야 하는가도 정해진 바가 없다. 이것이 의미하는 바는 미국이 북미회담 국면에서 완전히 발을 빼버릴 변명거리를 미리 만들어놓은 것이다.





 

Aaron Blake is senior political reporter for The Fix.






https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/03/09/the-white-house-sounds-like-it-might-have-cold-feet-about-trumps-commitment-to-meet-kim-jong-un/?utm_term=.dc2ec542d231

The White House sounds like it might have cold feet about Trump meeting Kim Jong Un

  
 1:50
Sanders lists conditions for Trump’s meeting with Kim Jong Un

This post has been updated to reflect a new anonymous White House comment.

Apparently President Trump's commitment to meet with Kim Jong Un was to be taken seriously, not necessarily literally.

South Korean officials said Thursday night at the White House that President Trump “said he would meet Kim Jong Un by May to achieve permanent denuclearization.” The White House followed that up with a statement saying the president “will accept the invitation to meet with Kim Jong Un at a place and time to be determined.”

So invitation accepted, right? Just awaiting the details, it seems.

Except ... maybe not. Appearing at the daily White House briefing Friday, press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders suggested the meeting was not a done deal after all. She seemed to retroactively attach denuclearization preconditions to the whole thing.

“The president will not have the meeting without seeing concrete steps and concrete actions take place by North Korea,” Sanders said, specifically mentioning denuclearization. “Look, they’ve got to follow through on the promises they’ve made.”

But the original agreement, as outlined by the South Koreans, was only that Kim would halt nuclear and missile tests while talks were underway. Until Friday, there was no indication it had to actually scale back its program beforehand. They said Kim was “committed to denuclearization,” but they did not say he would denuclearize before the meeting as a precondition.

Nor did the White House's statement attach this caveat to the meeting. Here is the full statement from Sanders on Thursday night:

President Trump greatly appreciates the nice words of the South Korean delegation and President Moon. He will accept the invitation to meet with Kim Jong Un at a place and time to be determined. We look forward to the denuclearization of North Korea. In the meantime, all sanctions and maximum pressure must remain.

Update: An unnamed White House official tells Bloomberg's Michael C. Bender that the meeting has still been accepted, whatever that means.

Consider this the latest piece of evidence that the first summit between a sitting U.S. president and the leader of North Korea is another example of Trump acting first and his staff sorting it out later.

On Thursday night, it was pretty evident this came out of nowhere. Trump had not even been scheduled to meet with the South Korean officials, but soon there was an agreement reached to talk with Kim. The White House did not immediately confirm the news, though, and diplomats were left scrambling to respond to the unplanned announcement.

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The news also seemed to contradict what Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had said earlier in the day. “In terms of direct talks with the United States — and you asked negotiations, and we’re a long ways from negotiations,” he said, adding: “I don’t know yet, until we are able to meet ourselves face to face with representatives of North Korea, whether the conditions are right to even begin thinking about negotiations.”

It's possible Sanders on Friday was simply trying to fight back against critics' arguments that this was a giveaway to the North Korean regime — that it was a foolhardy granting of the Kim regime's decades-long wish to secure an audience with a U.S. president, with little in return.

But the comments also give the White House an option they did not seem to reserve Thursday. The “concrete steps and concrete actions” are so undefined right now — and Sanders declined to detail them — that they could serve as a ready-made excuse to pull out off the whole thing.


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로라 비커 영국 비비씨 한국담당 기자가 본 김정은, 문재인, 트럼프 

김정은과 트럼프 대화는 21세기 정치 도박이다. 

Trump and North Korea talks: The political gamble of the 21st Century

By Laura Bicker -9 March 2018


(1) 김정은 

문재인, 트럼프, 김정은의 정치 도박이 시작되었다. 이번 장편 영웅담에서 가장 중요한 역할을 맡은 배우는 김정은이다. 김정은이 신년사에서 한국으로  올리브 나무 가지치기를 한다고 발표하고 평창 겨울 올림픽에 특사를 파견했다. 김정은의 기묘한 선전선동술이다. 김정은은 프로파간다의 대가다(maestro)


(2) 김정은과 트럼프의 중재자, 문재인의 역할   


 트럼프와 김정은은 노골적인 증오를 서로 쏟아부었다. 트럼프와 김정은은 말로써 개싸움을 벌이다가 협상 테이블에 앉게 되었다. 왜 이것이 가능했는가? 


트럼프와 문재인 역시 이번 회담에서 위험요소를 안고 있다. 왜냐하면 북한의 ‘비핵화’의 출구전략이 아직도 불투명하기 때문이다. 

그럼에도 문재인의 업적은 김정은이 비핵화를 하겠다는 발언을 이끌어냈다는 점이다. 


또한 트럼프에 대한 문재인의 전략 역시 뛰어났다. 트럼프에 대해서는 신중한 접근과 돌고래 칭찬이라는 두 가지 전술을 들고 나왔다.

트럼프를 김정은과 대화하도록 문재인은 애를 많이 썼고, 트럼프를 대화의 장으로 이끌어내기 위해서 과도하게 보이기까지하는 ‘칭찬’을 트럼프에게 쏟아부었다. 그 칭찬 효력이 나기 시작했다. 


(3) 트럼프와  문재인이 북한 김정은에 놀아난다고? Manipulated by North Korea


트럼프가 이번 김정은과의 회담에 적극적인 이유는, 대통령 취임 이후, 미국인들에게 내세울 눈에 띄이는 치적이 없기 때문에, 북한 카드를 집어들었다. 


비정통적 (기존 대통령과는 다른) 비정통적이고 불안정한 리더십 때문에 김정은과 문재인이 트럼프가 전쟁을 일으킬까봐 걱정했다.

“김정은이 미국에 한반도 비핵화, 핵무기와 미사일 실험의 일시중단 (모라토리엄)을 약속해주고, 그 반대급부로 미국으로부터 얻고자 하는 것은 북한에 대한 경제제재 약화, 미국의 선제공격을 미리 차단하고, 국제 사회에서 북한을 핵보유국으로 인정받는 것이다.” 이것은 국제 사회에 공히 다 알려진 북한의 핵무기 개발 목표와 전략이다. 


트럼프가 만약 북한의 비핵화를 실현시킨다면, 지난 클린턴 조지 부시, 오바마 대통령이 해결하지 못한 북한 문제를 깔끔하게 처리하면서 자신의 위상을 높일 수 있다.


트럼프가 바라보는 현 상황, 트럼프 행정부의 북한에 대한 최대 압박 전략, 미중 협력을 통한 북한 경제 압박이 김정은을 대화의 장으로 불러내게 만들었다.


트럼프 역시 위험부담을 떠안았다. 코뮤니스트 국가 대표인 김정은을  트럼프와 동등한 외교 수반으로 대우해야 하는 것 역시 위험요소다.  


몇 달 전까지만 해도 “조그마한 로켓맨”이라고 비하했던 김정은을 2개월 앞두고 만나서 어떤 외교적 성과를 낼 수 있을까도 트럼프의 과제다.


부산대 로버트 켈리 Kelly 교수 지적대로,  트럼프는 공부도 하지 않고 책도 잘 읽지 않는다. 북한은 미국과의 외교 게임을 수십년 동안 해왔고, 트럼프는 신참내기다. 트럼프의 저서 “협상의 기술 the Art of the Deal”은 이번 김정은 회담에서 안내서로 쓰기에는 적합하지 않을 것이다.



(4) 다시 문재인, 성공하면 노벨 평화상 수상 가능성도 있다. 실패하면 다시 북한과 미국은 긴장관계로 되돌아갈 것이다.


문재인 역시 이번 회담이 실패로 돌아가면 치명타를 입을 것이다. 문재인 개인사 입장에서도 비극이다. 북한 실향민인 문재인 어머니 (90세)도 마지막 소원이 고향 방문이기 때문이다.


정치적으로 실패하면, 북한과 미국 사이 군사적인 긴장은 과거 ‘벼랑끝 전술’로 회귀할 것이다.

그러나 이번 북미 회담이 성공하면, 문재인도 노벨 평화상을 수상할 수 있다.  


(문재인, 바보인가 아니면 천재인가?) 










Trump and North Korea talks: The political gamble of the 21st Century

S Korean President Moon Jae-inImage copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image captionSouth Korean President Moon Jae-in - dupe or genius?



South Korean leader Moon Jae-in is either a diplomatic genius or a communist set on destroying his country and US President Donald Trump is either a master of brinkmanship or a pawn in a more devious game - depending on who you speak to.


But it is the other actor in this saga, Kim Jong-un, the only one who has yet to make a direct statement, who may just be the most significant player in this most extraordinary of political gambles.


From the moment he extended an apparent olive branch to the South in his new year message to the cordial delegations to Pyeongchang for the Winter Olympics, it became clear that Kim Jong-un had mastered the most sophisticated crafts of propaganda.


Some will view his personal invitation to Mr Trump to hold talks with him - as well as the commitment to freeze further nuclear tests - as the real diplomatic masterstroke after a year that was unprecedented for the level of naked hostility the US and the North bared toward one another.


But the risk here belongs to both Moon Jae-in and Donald Trump. In a situation where neither can claim sole mastery of the narrative, without a clear exit strategy, and when there are so many definitions for both success and failure, a lot is at stake.


Whose charm offensive?


Mr Moon is viewed by his supporters as the negotiator-in-chief who has now skilfully managed to get Mr Kim to at least talk about getting rid of nuclear weapons.


He is the one who spotted the opportunity during the North Korean leader's speech in January - which offered a glimmer of hope that the reclusive state was willing to engage with the South - and grabbed it with both hands.


Media captionThe unlikely triangle: Trump, Rodman and Kim Jong-un



The dizzying level of diplomacy and a frenzy of visits between North and South has now delivered - it seems.


"People are calling this the North Korean charm offensive, I actually think this is a South Korean charm offensive. This is something President Moon Jae-in clearly wanted," John Delury from Yonsei University said to me even before the talks were announced.


Mr Moon knew his envoys would have to extract the word "denuclearisation" from Mr Kim when they visited Pyongyang. He also knew having two of his top level government ministers looking cosy with the North Korean leader would not go down well in Washington or Tokyo.


But it was worth the risk. The US would not have considered talking to the communist state without that meeting. His chosen delegates got what they needed.


The South Korean leader is also attempting the role of honest broker, handling Mr Trump and Mr Kim at the same time. He is choosing his words carefully and keeping his cards close to his chest while flattering those who respond to the spotlight.


In his New Year's address he said Mr Trump deserved "huge credit" for talks between the two Koreas, knowing it would please him. He is also using language that will reassure a concerned Republican administration. The language of the South Korean statement announcing the talks was also fulsome in its admiration for Trump's handling of the situation leading up to this moment.


Sanctions will stay in place, Mr Moon had said earlier, and Mr Trump has now confirmed that.


Manipulated by North Korea?


But everybody knows it wasn't always like that. Just six months ago Mr Trump was promising to rain down "fire and fury like the world has never seen" on North Korea if it dare threaten the US. Prof Haksoon Paik, lead researcher at the Sejong Institute, said that threat level felt "totally unprecedented".


"President Moon was very much concerned about nuclear threat of war. Kim Jong-un was in the same situation. We were hearing from the likes of the US Senator Lindsay Graham that lives will be lost over here. Donald Trump's unorthodox and unstable leadership had both Korean leaders worried about the potential of military options."


The US has always maintained that the permanent denuclearisation of North Korea is the endgame. Even with all the surprises up to this point, few believe Mr Kim would agree to that so if they don't achieve that what options does Trump have?


Kim Jong-un shakes hand with Chung Eui-yong head of South Korea's presidential National Security Office in Pyongyang (5 March 2018)Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image captionSouth Korean officials held a landmark meeting with Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang this week


So is Moon Jae-in - and indeed Donald Trump - being manipulated by a North Korea which has fooled the world before?


"By dangling before the US once again 'denuclearization of the Korean peninsula' and 'moratorium on nuclear and missile tests', Kim seeks to weaken sanctions, pre-empt US military pre-emption, and condition the world into accepting North Korea as a legitimate nuclear state," says Prof Lee Sung-yoon from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University.


For Mr Trump this could be about one of the boldest and most historic moves a US leader has made in foreign relations.


If this gamble works out, Mr Trump could credit himself as the president who sorted out North Korea. His administration has had very few victories, despite promising his voters there would "so much winning."


He believes his "maximum pressure" strategy and his work to get China on side and help squeeze Pyongyang economically is working.



Demonstrators dressed as North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un (R) and US President Donald Trump (L) embrace during a peace rally in Seoul on November 5, 2017Image copyrightED JONES/GETTY
Image captionProtesters in Seoul called for peace talks between the US and North Korea in November


Reporters say he casually mentioned in the White House briefing room that he hoped they would give him credit for Kim Jong-un's offer. His voters certainly will.


But meeting Mr Kim risks treating the communist leader as an equal. It could be a PR disaster. The date set is also only a few months away - a short time frame to achieve diplomatic goals with a leader he mocked as "little rocket man" just a few months ago.


Prof Robert E Kelly at Busan University in South Korea tweeted: "Trump doesn't study or even read. He tends to fly wildly off script. And May means there's almost no time for all the staff prep necessary."


Pyongyang has been playing this game for decades. Mr Trump is new to it. He may see a big win on the horizon, but his Art of the Deal book will not be the guide he needs to deal with Kim Jong-un.


Politics is personal


For Mr Moon this is about history and it is also personal.


He played a part in previous attempts to negotiate with North Korea as chief of staff to President Roh Moo-hyun when he met Mr Kim's father, Kim Jong-il, in 2007. That was the last time the leaders of the two Koreas held a summit. A satellite launch by Pyongyang ended the talks.


By then around $4.5bn of aid had been sent North during the policy of engagement. Critics believe that money helped to accelerate the weapons programme.


Having failed once before, Mr Moon is trying to complete the work he started, says Duyeon Kim, a senior fellow at the Korean Peninsula Forum.


"He's basically following the same playbook as his two liberal predecessors. It's exactly the kind of thing he would want to pick up and continue."


South Korean soldiers stand guard at the border village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) between South and North Korea on February 7, 2018 in PanmunjomImage copyrightGETTY IMAGES
Image captionThe border between the North and South is demarcated at the truce village of Panmunjom


As a son of refugees from the North, Mr Moon is also aware of the effects of conflict on the peninsula. His parents fled North Korea aboard a UN supply ship in 1950 at the start of the Korean War alongside thousands of other refugees.


He told reporters during his election campaign: "My father fled from the North, hating communism. I myself hate the communist North Korean system. That doesn't mean I should let the people in the North suffer under an oppressive regime."


President Moon has acknowledged there are obstacles ahead. He is managing expectations and so much can go wrong.


Duyeon Kim believes there is a high probability that at the end of this negotiating process, all parties will fail, and North Korea will decide it wants to keep its nuclear weapons. And yet...


"You just don't know. I don't think it's ever a lost cause, in spite of all the doubts and scepticism all parties should go in with clear eyes, but negotiate hard."


Image copyrightREUTERS
Image captionNorth Korea says its long-range missiles protect all of Korea from "US aggressors"


President Moon's approval ratings took a hit during the Winter Olympics after he integrated the women's hockey team with players from the North and met a general from Pyongyang who had been accused of masterminding deadly attacks on South Koreans, though they have since rebounded.


He may suffer politically if this fails but maybe for him, this is not about scoring political points. This is what he told Time magazine last year when he was presidential candidate: "My mother is the only one [of her family] who fled to the South. [She] is 90 years old. Her younger sister is still in the North alive. My mother's last wish is to see her again."


These talks are a huge gamble with a communist state which is hard to read.


But if, just if, he helps pull it off it may reduce the threat of nuclear war and he could win himself a Nobel peace prize.

If all fails, it is back to brinkmanship.


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