정책비교/국제정치2019. 3. 2. 03:40
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하노이의 교훈, 트럼프가 기분 좋을 때는 트위터 온라인에서는 "김정은과 사랑에 빠졌다가", 기분이 조금 가라앉으면 미국 강경파들의 주장대로, 실제로 만나서는  "북한에 숨겨둔 애인이 몇 명 더 있지?" 하고 김정은을 몰아친 셈이다. 표리부동이다.  결과적으로는 이번 하노이 회담에서는 트럼프는 강경 보수파인 빅터 차 Victor Cha 씨의 논거를 북한팀에 들이댄 것이다.  트럼프에게 쫓겨난 빅터 차가 웃었을 것이다. "거 봐, 내 말이 맞지" 


물론 3차 북미 정상회담이야 할 수도 있고, 그럴 확률도 높고, 한국의 미래에도 중요하지만, 김정은보다는 미국 트럼프의 말과 행동에서는 일관성이 떨어진다. 미국팀의 통일성 수준이 북한 김정은-김여정 팀보다 더 낮다는 것을 알 수 있다.


2019년 2월 27일 하노이 북미회담이 막판에 결렬된 것은, 미국 트럼프가 하노이 확대 협상장에서 자신이 예전에 공식적으로 말하지 않았던 이야기, "북한 영변 이외에 또다른 핵시설이 있다. 그것 역시 폐기하라"는 이야기를 했다.


결국 트럼프가 북한과의 협상에서 미국의 강경파들의 주장을 전혀 예고없이 하노이에서 들이댄 것이다. 그것을 존 볼튼이 말했건, 폼페이오가 주장했건 그것은 중요하지 않다. 


2018년 6월 30일 경에 터져 나온, "북한 영변 이외에 또 다른 핵시설이 있다. 북한은 아직도 비밀리에 핵개발을 하고 있을지 모른다"는 nbc 뉴스 기사가 이번 하노이 회담장에서 터져 나왔다. 그리고 이게 빌미가 되어, 김정은 역시 더 이상 협상을 진전시키지 못했다. 


북한이 공식적으로 발표하기 전까지는 영변 이외에 또 다른 핵시설이 있는지 없는지는 지금 알 길은 없다. 미국이 이 주장을 이번 하노이 협상장에서 꺼냈다는 것을 두고, 미국이 대단하다고 칭찬하는 페이스북 스타들도 있던데, 외교에 대한 무지이다. 2018년 6월 30일 이후, 조엘 위트가 주장한 "영변 이외에 다수의 핵시설 존재" 주장에 대해서 트럼프는 공식적인 입장을 전혀 발표하지 않았기 때문이다. 


그 대신 트럼프는 "이제 더 이상 북한의 핵위협은 존재하지 않는다"고 트위터를 날렸다.


영변 이외에 또다른 핵시설이 있고, 김정은이 이를 은폐했다고 가정하자, 그렇다면 트럼프는 제 2차 정상회담을 하노이에서 하지 말고 그 이전에 취소했어야 했다. 


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조엘 위트 (Joel Wit)는 1994년 북한과 협상해 본 적이 있다. 그에 따르면 북한은 영변 이외에 또 하나 핵시설을 가지고 있다. 그런데 그 지역 이름은 알려지지 않았다. "이 두 곳 뿐만 아니라 다른 곳에 핵시설이 더 있을 수도 있다" 



NORTH KOREA


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-korea/north-korea-has-increased-nuclear-production-secret-sites-say-u-n887926


North Korea has increased nuclear production at secret sites, say U.S. officials


"Work is ongoing to deceive us on the number of facilities, the number of weapons, the number of missiles," said one U.S. official.



June 29, 2018, 6:13 PM EDT / Updated June 30, 2018, 7:14 PM EDT


By Courtney Kube, Ken Dilanian and Carol E. Lee


WASHINGTON — U.S. intelligence agencies believe that North Korea has increased its production of fuel for nuclear weapons at multiple secret sites in recent months — and that Kim Jong Un may try to hide those facilities as he seeks more concessions in nuclear talks with the Trump administration, U.S. officials told NBC News.


The intelligence assessment, which has not previously been reported, seems to counter the sentiments expressed by President Donald Trump, who tweeted after his historic June 12 summit with Kim that "there was no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea."


Analysts at the CIA and other intelligence agencies don't see it that way, according to more than a dozen American officials who are familiar with their assessments and spoke on the condition of anonymity. They see a regime positioning itself to extract every concession it can from the Trump administration — while clinging to nuclear weapons it believes are essential to survival.




North Korea is keeping nuclear program alive, officials say


JUNE 30, 201801:40


The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.


In recent months, even as the two sides engaged in diplomacy, North Korea was stepping up its production of enriched uranium for nuclear weapons, five U.S. officials say, citing the latest intelligence assessment. North Korea and the U.S. agreed at the summit to "work toward" denuclearization, but there is no specific deal. On Trump's order, the U.S. military canceled training exercises on the Korean peninsula, a major concession to Kim.


While the North Koreans have stopped missile and nuclear tests, "there's no evidence that they are decreasing stockpiles, or that they have stopped their production," said one U.S. official briefed on the latest intelligence. "There is absolutely unequivocal evidence that they are trying to deceive the U.S."


Four other officials familiar with the intelligence assessment also said North Korea intended to deceive the U.S.



Donald J. Trump



@realDonaldTrump

 Just landed - a long trip, but everybody can now feel much safer than the day I took office. There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea. Meeting with Kim Jong Un was an interesting and very positive experience. North Korea has great potential for the future!  101K 4:56 AM - Jun 13, 2018



U.S. intelligence agencies have stepped up their collection against North Korea in recent years, and it appears to be paying off with greater insights into a country that has long been the world's hardest spying target, officials say. NBC News agreed to withhold some details of the latest intelligence assessment that officials said could put sources at risk.


"There are lots of things that we know that North Korea has tried to hide from us for a long time," a U.S. intelligence official said.


It's long been understood that North Korea had at least one undeclared facility to enrich nuclear fuel, aside from Yongbyon, its main nuclear site.


"When North Korea constructed the enrichment facility at Yongbyon in 2009, the North Koreans did so at a pace that suggested this was not their first rodeo, i.e. not the first time they had assembled large cascades of centrifuges," said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program for the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.




Image: Operations at the uranium enrichment plant A satellite image of North Korea's Yongbyon facility annotated by 38north.org.Airbus Defense and Space and 38 North


Joel Wit, who negotiated a 1994 nuclear agreement with North Korea, said the U.S. always believed North Korea had two facilities to enrich nuclear material: Yongbyon and a second site the U.S. is aware of but whose name has not been disclosed.


조엘 위트 (Joel Wit)는 1994년 북한과 협상해 본 적이 있다. 그에 따르면 북한은 영변 이외에 또 하나 핵시설을 가지고 있다. 그런데 그 지역 이름은 알려지지 않았다. "이 두 곳 뿐만 아니라 다른 곳에 핵시설이 더 있을 수도 있다" 


"People have been open to the possibility there might be more," he said.


The latest U.S. intelligence assessment concludes that there is more than one secret site, officials tell NBC News. The question is whether Kim will be willing to admit it.


"This is why people want North Korea to declare all its facilities up front," said Wit, a former Clinton administration official and senior fellow at the Stimson Center who founded a website devoted to North Korea, 38north.org.


The intelligence assessment comes on the heels of a report by 38north.org showing that North Korea was continuing to make improvements at its major disclosed nuclear facility at Yongbyon.


President Trump: 'There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea'


JUNE 13, 201810:08


"The observed activity appears inconsistent with a North Korean intent to abandon its nuclear weapons programs," said Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst and North Korea expert at the Heritage Foundation. "There seems little reason to continue expansion plans if the regime intended to dismantle them as would be required under a denuclearization agreement."


One senior U.S. intelligence official offered a different view, noting that the decision by Kim to suspend nuclear and missile tests was unexpected, and the fact that the two sides are talking is a positive step.


But that official also acknowledged that intelligence analysts expect the Kim regime to try to deceive the United States.


"Work is ongoing to deceive us on the number of facilities, the number of weapons, the number of missiles," he said. "We are watching closely."



1> Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst and North Korea expert at the Heritage Foundation.

2> Joel Wit,  a former Clinton administration official and senior fellow at the Stimson Center who founded a website devoted to North Korea, 38north.org.

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