Turkey election: What five more years of Erdogan would mean-Turkish elections 2023

 

 

자료 1.

 

Can Turkey’s opposition bridge enthusiasm gap before runoff vote?

Rejuvenated Erdoğan is in pole position as Kılıçdaroğlu reckons with lack of belief among supporters

 

Ruth Michaelson and Deniz Barış Narlı in Istanbul

Tue 23 May 2023 10.58 BST

After a day spent walking in the sunshine to get to the polls and vote for Turkey’s opposition, 24-year-old Ayten gathered with her friends, excited to watch the results on television and scroll through Twitter. Slowly, as the election count went on, their enthusiasm disappeared.

 

By 3am on the morning of 15 May, when Recep Tayyip Erdoğan gave a triumphant speech to the crowd outside his party’s headquarters in Ankara, extolling his unexpected lead over the opposition and a surprise majority for his coalition in parliament, the young voters were still awake but their hopes for change had been crushed.

 

“With the election results, our hopes for our country have been shattered. We realised that we shouldn’t put so much trust in anyone,” she said. “I was disappointed on election night, and this feeling only grew over the next day. I thought: I personally defended the future of the younger generation as much as I could.”

 

Turkey’s opposition, led by the former accountant Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, forced Erdoğan into a second-round runoff, a rare setback for the incumbent leader of two decades. But Erdoğan appears rejuvenated and is in pole position for the ballot on 28 May after taking 49.5% of the vote compared with Kılıçdaroğlu’s 44.9% in the first round.

 

Erdoğan on the campaign trail.

Erdoğan on the campaign trail this week. Photograph: APAImages/Shutterstock

Turkey’s opposition, meanwhile, is reckoning with a lack of enthusiasm among its supporters. “The opposition needs to give confidence to its supporters, but this isn’t happening,” said Ayten. “People are voting not because they are confident but because they feel they have to. I think that a party that has been in power for 20 years should no longer be in power.”

 

When polled before the first round, the majority of voters said their greatest concern was Turkey’s ongoing economic crisis. The opposition believed this would be enough to convince the public to turn away from Erdoğan after two decades. However, even in pre-election surveys most voters did not believe Kılıçdaroğlu was capable of winning.

 

Erdoğan has encouraged his supporters to show up at the polls a second time, warning them against being complacent. “Even though they have fallen behind, they are doing everything they can to muddy the waters and put a shadow over the national will,” he said of the opposition.

 

“Be certain that they will maintain this attitude until 28 May: if we don’t stand firm and continue as we have done, there’s no doubt the other side will fall on to the ballot boxes with their disrespectful and fascist attitude.”

 

In a further boost to the president, Sinan Oğan, the nationalist candidate who came third in the first round, formally endorsed Erdoğan on Monday.

 

Erdoğan (right) and Sinan Oğan.

Erdoğan (right) and Sinan Oğan. Photograph: AP

Most opposition voters said they intended to vote in the runoff, but some said they would stay away, in what could be a potentially lethal loss of votes for Kılıçdaroğlu.

 

“I don’t intend to vote in the second round, I have no desire to wait in line for hours. I think everyone has accepted that the opposition has failed. People believe Erdoğan has already won,” said Feyyaz, a 41-year-old cafe owner, making espressos while a blues track featuring a singer wailing about “the end of sweet dreams”, played over the speaker system.

 

He voted for Kılıçdaroğlu and his Republican People’s party (CHP) in the first round, he said, “because there was hope. But now, no one feels hopeful.”

 

Erdoğan supporters in Ankara

Turkey election: what can we expect from Erdoğan v Kılıçdaroğlu runoff?

Read more

Like Ayten, Feyyaz had rushed home to watch the returns, following attentively when the Istanbul and Ankara mayors, Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, declared that the opposition was ahead and that counts shared by the state news agency Anadolu should not be trusted.

 

“When they said that on television I trusted them. Then I realised this wasn’t the case,” he said. By the morning after the vote, he said, his hopes were dashed and he had lost confidence in the opposition.

 

As the week drew on, opposition supporters seized on examples of irregularities in the vote count, including data inputted incorrectly into a system run by the supreme election council, or YSK. The CHP official Muharrem Erkek later said the opposition had challenged results in 2,269 ballot boxes for the presidential election and more for the parliamentary vote, but that these discrepancies would not alter their loss. “We follow each vote, even if it does not change the general results,” he said.

 

Despite CHP officials promising they would keep a parallel tally of the vote count and release their own data to the public, this is yet to surface. Instead, fears and panic about their loss being tied to unspecified election fraud reverberated among opposition voters.

 

Observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe said the vote was handled fairly despite being held in an undemocratic political environment. “[Turkey’s] general elections were well-managed and offered voters a choice between genuine political alternatives, but the current president and the ruling parties enjoyed an unjustified advantage,” they said.

 

Ayten was one of many opposition voters who retained a sense of mistrust about the first-round results, a mirror of fears prior to the vote that the government would not respect the results if it lost. “I did not trust the results,” she said. “Some votes had to be recounted 10 or 11 times. This wasn’t normal. I don’t trust Anadolu, either. There is no free press and the media is manipulating many things.”

 

In a desperate effort to close the gap on his opponent and garner votes from Turkey’s nationalist right, Kılıçdaroğlu hardened his rhetoric and doubled down on promises to deport millions of refugees. “Let those who love their country come to the ballot box!” he said.

 

He also called for more electoral observers, sidestepping accusations from Turkish journalists that the CHP had left 20,000 ballot boxes without observers in the first round despite their promises of tight election security.

 

“This time we need not one, not two, but five observers at each ballot box. We need more brave ballot box observers … who we can rely on under any circumstances,” he said.

 

Kılıçdaroğlu’s tactics did little to reassure Ayten, who remained despondent. “My friends and family and I, we will all vote again. They say it’s our duty as citizens to vote. But I don’t know if you should be hopeful about the outcome,” she said.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/23/can-turkey-opposition-bridge-enthusiasm-gap-runoff-vote-erdogan-kilicdaroglu

Can Turkey’s opposition bridge enthusiasm gap before runoff vote?

 

2. bbc

 

 

Turkey election: What five more years of Erdogan would mean

 

Turkish elections 2023

A supporter of President Erdogan waves a Turkish flag at a taxi driver convention

 

Supporters of President Erdogan say he has improved their daily lives

By Orla Guerin

 

BBC News, Istanbul

 

After two decades in power and more than a dozen elections, Turkey's authoritarian leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan knows how to work a room. At a taxi drivers' convention in Istanbul, they could not get enough of him.

 

He controlled the crowd like the conductor of an orchestra. They cheered and clapped - and booed the opposition - on cue. The venue was a waterside convention centre in Istanbul, built during his time as mayor of the city.

 

The rally reached a crescendo as the president delivered his parting shot: "One Nation, One Flag, One Motherland, One State." By then, many aging drivers were on their feet, punching the air or raising one arm in a salute.

 

Ayse Ozdogan, a conservatively dressed woman in a headscarf, had come early with her taxi driver husband to hear her leader's every word. A crutch rested on the seat next to her. She struggles to walk but could not stay away.

 

"Erdogan is everything to me," she said, with a broad smile. "We could not get to hospitals before, but now we can get around easily. We have transportation. We have everything. He has improved roads. He has built mosques. He has developed the country with high-speed trains and underground lines."

 

A shopkeeper in Istanbul speaks with a customer

 

IMAGE SOURCE,BBC/OZGUR ARSLAN

Image caption,

 

Skyrocketing food prices have hit people in Turkey

 

The president's nationalist message appealed to many in the crowd, including Kadir Kavlioglu, aged 58, who has been driving a minibus for 40 years. "Since we love our homeland and our nation, we are walking steadily behind the president."

 

"We are with him every step of the way," he said, "whether the price of potatoes and onions rises or falls. My dear president is our hope."

 

When Turks went to the polls earlier this month, they were not voting with their wallets. Food prices are skyrocketing. Inflation is at a punishing 43%.

 

Yet President Recep Tayyip Erdogan - who controls the economy and much else here - came out in front with 49.5% of the vote. That confounded analysts and taught a lesson here - beware opinion polls.

 

A divided country

 

His rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the secular opposition leader, got 44.9%. So, the electorate in this polarised country was split - the two sides implacably opposed but just 4% apart.

 

 

An ultra-nationalist candidate, Sinan Ogan, took an unexpected 5.2%, pushing the contest to a second round this Sunday. He has now endorsed President Erdogan.

 

 

Women walk in front of an election campaign poster of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul

IMAGE SOURCE,EPA

Image caption,

President Erdogan is the favourite to win the second round of the elections

Why have most voters stuck with him despite the economic crisis, and the government's slow response to disastrous twin earthquakes in February, which killed at least 50,000 people?

 

"I think he is the [ultimate] Teflon politician," says Professor Soli Ozel, who lectures in international relations at Istanbul's Kadir Has University. "He also has the common touch. You can't deny it. He exudes power. That's one thing that Kilicdaroglu does not."

 

Mr Kilicdaroglu, who is backed by a six-party opposition alliance, used to exude hope, and promise freedom and democracy.

 

But after his first-round disappointment, he made a sharp right turn. Now there is less of the caring grandfather and more of the nationalist hardliner. "It is a race to the bottom," according to one Turkish journalist.

 

"I am announcing here that I will send all refugees back home once I am elected President, period," said Mr Kilicdaroglu at a recent election rally.

 

That includes more than three million Syrians who fled war at home. It is a message that goes down well in Turkey.

 

Whoever is Turkey's next president, nationalism is already a winner here. The voters have elected the most nationalist and conservative parliament ever, in which Mr Erdogan's ruling AK (Justice and Development) Party coalition has retained control.

 

Woman with glasses smiles at the camera

IMAGE SOURCE,OZGUR ARSLAN

For some young voters it feels like the die has already been cast here. Sitting on a red couch beneath a rainbow flag, Zeynep, 21, and Mert, 23, serve piping hot Turkish tea and worry about the future.

 

Both study psychology at Bogazici University, a respected seat of learning with a history of now-suppressed student protests. Their friendship began at the university's LGBTQ+ club, which has since been closed. Gay pride parades have been banned starting from 2015.

 

During the election campaign, the president has been targeting the community. "No LGBT people come out of this nation," he told a packed rally in the city of Izmir. "We do not tarnish our family structure. Stand up straight like a man, our families are like that."

 

The community is now at growing risk, according to Mert, who has shoulder-length dark hair and earrings.

 

"Erdogan himself, in every speech, at every event he holds, has started to portray us as targets," he said. "Day by day, the state is making an enemy out of us."

 

A new Turkish century

"What the government says has an impact on people. You see it reflected in those closest to you, even in your family. If this continues, then what next? We end up always living on alert, always tense, always in fear," he said.

 

Zeynep - who has dark eyes and expressive hands - is still hoping for a new era but knows it may not come. "I am 21 years old and they have been here for 20 years," she said.

 

"I want change and if I don't see that I will be sad and scared. They will attack us more; they will take our rights more. They will ban many more things, I think. But we will still do something, we will still fight."

 

Turkish Presidential Election 2023 Results map with percentage of votes

 

Image caption,

Results from the first round of Turkey's presidential election

On Sunday, voters will go to the polls for the first presidential runoff in their history with their country at a turning point.

 

It is almost 100 years since Turkey was founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk as a secular republic.

 

Recep Tayyip Erdogan is promising a new "Turkish century" if he is re-elected.

 

His supporters say he will deliver more development and a stronger Turkey. His critics say it will be less Ataturk, more Islamisation, and a darker future.

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

Turkey election: Why the world is watching the presidential race

Published

5 days ago

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65647483

Turkey election: Why the world is watching the presidential race

 

 

Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrate at the AK Party headquarters on 15 May 15 in Istanbul

 

 

In Turkey's run-off election, the votes of women - representing 50.6% of the electorate - will be key

By Anna Foster

BBC News, Istanbul

When Turkish voters return to the polls in a week's time to pick a president, their choice will make waves across the globe. Turkey's future could look very different depending on who wins - and the world is watching.

 

Turkey's current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been in power for two decades. He has forged bonds with both East and West, but his increasingly authoritarian rule has led to friction with some allies.

 

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the opposition challenger, has promised to restore Turkey's democracy and improve human rights. Some Turks, though, question whether he has the presence on the world stage and commitment to security that Mr Erdogan has made his trademark.

 

Polls before the first round of the election on 14 May suggested the vote would be finely balanced between the two men. But when the ballots were counted, Mr Erdogan defied predictions, with a lead that now looks difficult for his opponent to overturn.

 

Map shows the percentage of votes from the first round of Turkey's presidential election

"Turkey is a country that I used to describe as one of our swing states," explains Baroness Ashton, the EU's former foreign policy chief.

 

"What happens in Turkey in terms of its democracy and in terms of its place in the region has a huge impact on Europe, on Asia, and of course on all of the global issues that we're all grappling with. So it is really important."

 

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Turkey has cemented its position as a valuable diplomatic broker. It facilitated some early talks between the warring nations, but made a real breakthrough only when it negotiated the crucial grain deal that has kept Ukrainian exports flowing through the heavily-mined Black Sea.

 

President Erdogan also prides himself on the lines of communication he keeps open with everyone from the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden to Presidents Putin of Russia and Xi of China.

 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) shakes hands with US President Joe Biden in 2022

IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES

Image caption,

President Erdogan has ties with a range of political leaders, from US President Joe Biden (right) to China's President Xi

"Turkey has always had this ambition to be part of the West," says Evren Balta, a professor in international relations at Istanbul's Ozyegin University.

 

"This has not changed in the two decades of [Mr Erdogan's AK Party] rule," Prof Balta, continues. "But Turkey's international alliances have diversified. It has pursued what we call 'strategic autonomy', the idea that countries can be in alliances or in alignments with more than one country or security umbrella."

 

Turkey's multiple relationships and ability to juggle them has proved valuable. But the picture is not entirely rosy.

 

Take the Nato military alliance for instance, where Turkish forces make up the second-biggest army. Its members readily agreed that bringing in Finland and Sweden would strengthen security for the whole bloc.

 

Turkey was the lone voice of dissent, slowing down Finnish membership and continuing to block Sweden's. It said it wouldn't support Swedish membership until it extradited dozens of members of the PKK, a Kurdish rebel group that has waged an armed struggle against Turkey since 1984.

 

Selin Nasi, the London representative of the Ankara Policy Center, thinks a change of president could be helpful for relations with Nato.

 

Mr Kilicdaroglu has promised to solve the so-called S400 issue - Turkey's use of a Russian missile defence system that the US deemed incompatible with its F-35 fighter jet programme. Turkey's access to F-35s was removed in 2019, but the opposition has promised to take steps to restore it.

 

Kemal Kilicdaroglu receives flowers from a well-wisher after casting his vote at a polling station in Ankara

IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES

Image caption,

Kemal Kilicdaroglu (centre, with flowers) has pledged to restore democracy in Turkey and restart efforts to join the EU

"Under the current circumstances, Turkey is an ally, but its loyalty and commitment to Nato is questioned," says Nasi. "Remember the G20 summit in Bali. We came to the brink of a nuclear war.

 

"An emergency meeting was held there and Turkey was not invited. This displayed the ambiguous position of Turkey within Nato. In order to overcome these suspicions and judgments, I think we need to solve the S400 issue, the sooner the better."

 

And then there is the EU. Turkey was officially recognised as a candidate for membership in 1999. But the process stalled in 2016, with Brussels criticising the Turkish government's record on human rights and democratic freedoms.

 

Mr Kilicdaroglu and the opposition said they would make a renewed bid to get things moving again. But is that even a feasible aim?

 

Ilnur Cevik, the chief advisor to President Erdogan, does not think so. He says the opposition leader is "hallucinating".

 

"The EU are always putting stumbling blocks in our way to becoming a full member. [Mr Kilicdaroglu] says after he comes to power that in three months he would create the environment that the European Union would allow Turks visa-free movement, which is a load of baloney."

 

Faik Tunay is poetic in his reply to that. He is the deputy chair of the Democrat Party, one of the members of Mr Kilicdaroglu's opposition alliance.

 

"I would define the relationship between the EU and Turkey as an impossible love story," he says.

 

"Sure, Turkey has made a lot of mistakes. It didn't complete the homework which was given by the EU: the freedom, the democracy, the human rights or any other issues. But if Turkey can catch EU standards 100% in all aspects, then it's not important to be a member of the EU, or any other thing."

 

Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan wave flags outside the AK Party headquarters after polls closed in Turkey's presidental and parliamentary elections in Ankara Turkey on 15 May

IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES

Image caption,

Mr Erdogan has reshaped his country more than any leader since its modern-day founding father Mustafa Kemal Ataturk

Since the first round of voting, the status of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey - a figure provided by the UN Refugee Agency - has become a key issue.

 

In the original campaign, both sides promised to return as many Syrian refugees home as possible within weeks of the presidential vote. But as the run-off gets closer, that has crystallised into a key topic of discussion, with each man vying to be the most hard-line on the topic.

 

It's a worrying moment for Syrians, who fear they're about to be returned to a country that still isn't safe for many. That could create a headache for the wider world, too, who would have to accommodate them if Turkey puts a stop to its support.

 

Turkey's chequered history on rights and freedoms continues to complicate the country's relationship with the West. If the opposition wins, it insists it would make things better, and the pledge to return to democracy has been one of its key campaign messages.

 

"If under a different government we see any improvement on the democratic rights and freedom of expression, it would improve Turkey's image in the international arena," says the Ankara Policy Center's Selin Nasi. "An Erdogan victory would also mean that political prisoners will remain in jail."

 

Turkey's voters are facing a stark choice. No doubt domestic issues like the struggling economy are at the forefront of most minds as ballots are being cast. Turkey's place in the world may feel like a less important consideration to some, but the direction its next leader takes will define the future stability and success of the country for decades.

 

튀르키예 대선이 국제 사회에서 중요한 이유
수도 앙카라에서 열린 야당 집회에 모인 지지자들의 모습사진 출처,GETTY IMAGES
2023년 5월 25일
지난 14일(현지시간) 열린 대선 1차 투표에서 과반 득표자가 나오지 않으면서 오는 28일 대선 결선 투표가 열릴 예정이다.

레제프 타이이프 에르도안 현 대통령과 케말 클르츠다로울루 야권 공동 후보의 맞대결로 좁혀진 가운데, 지난 20년간 권력을 잡았던 에르도안 대통령이 이번 대선에서 패배할 경우 튀르키예의 외교 정책은 큰 변화를 맞이할 수도 있다.

에르도안 대통령 집권 이후 튀르키예는 러시아와 더욱 가까워지며 ‘북대서양조약기구(NATO)’ 서방 동맹국의 반감을 샀을 뿐만 아니라 이라크, 시리아, 리비아 분쟁 등에도 직접 군을 투입한 바 있다.

반면 클르츠다로울루 후보는 비교적 친서방적인 인물로, 국외 문제 개입을 줄이겠다고 약속한다.

그렇다면 이번 대선 결과에 따라 튀르키예의 여러 외교 노선이 어떻게 변할 수 있을지 살펴봤다.

시리아 난민 관련 정책은?
우선 내전을 피해 튀르키예로 넘어온 시리아 난민만 해도 공식적으로 약 370만 명에 이르며, 아프가니스탄 등 다른 국가에서 넘어온 난민들도 있다.

이에 대해 튀르키예는 이 정도 규모의 난민을 “다룰 수 없다”는 게 에르도안 대통령의 주장이다.

주목할 점은 에르도안 대통령과 클르츠다로울루 후보 모두 난민들의 송환을 위해 시리아와의 관계 “정상화”가 필요하다고 주장한다는 것이다.

2014년 9월 터키 수루크 인근 유무르탈리크 국경초소를 통해 튀르키예로 건너가는 시리아 쿠르드족의 모습
사진 출처,EPA
사진 설명,
‘이슬람국가(IS)’가 시리아 일부 지역을 장악하고 내전 상황이 이어지자 수 많은 시리아 국민들이 튀르키예로 떠났다

그러나 이는 돌려보내진 시리아 난민들이 바샤르 알 아사드 현 시리아 대통령의 권위주의 정권 아래 다시 살아가야 한다는 뜻이기도 하다.

이번 달 터키 언론은 “대통령에 당선되면 모든 난민을 본국으로 송환할 것”이라는 클르츠다로울루 후보의 발언을 인용해 보도한 바 있다.

실제로 클르츠다로울루 후보는 유럽연합(EU)과 체결한 난민송환협정을 파기하겠다고 위협하고 있다. 해당 협정을 통해 튀르키예는 시리아 난민 수백만 명을 받아들였으며, 유럽 국가들은 난민의 유럽행을 막을 수 있었다.

EU 측이 협정 조건을 제대로 이행하지 않았다는 게 클르츠다로울루 후보의 주장이다.

서방과의 관계는?
1923년 터키 공화국이 설립된 이래로, 튀르키예는 전통적으로 서구 열강과 동맹 관계를 맺어 왔다.

튀르키예의 군대는 서방의 군사 동맹인 NATO 회원국 중에서도 큰 편에 속할 뿐만 아니라, 튀르키예 정부는 EU 가입도 신청한 상태다.

그러나 에르도안 현 대통령은 종종 서방 국가를 향해 “제국주의자” 혹은 “불공정하다”며 날을 세우곤 한다.

악수하는 에르도안과 푸틴 대통령의 모습
사진 출처,GETTY IMAGES
사진 설명,
에르도안 대통령은 푸틴 대통령과 친밀한 관계를 구축해왔다

에르도안 대통령은 집권 이후 줄곧 러시아와 친밀한 관계를 구축해왔다.

지난 2019년에는 러시아제 방공 미사일 시스템 ‘S-400’을 수입하며 미국의 반감을 ‘F-35’ 전투기 개발 공동 국제 프로그램에서 퇴출당하기도 했다.

한편 러시아의 우크라이나 침공 이후 핀란드와 스웨덴이 NATO 가입을 신청했으나, 튀르키예는 스웨덴이 튀르키예의 적들을 숨겨주고 있다며, 가입 신청을 가로막고 있다.

2019년 3월 지방선거를 앞두고 연설 중인 클르츠다로울루 공화인민당(CHP) 대표의 모습

 

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클르츠다로울루 후보는 서방 국가와의 관계를 개선하겠다고 말한다

한편 영국의 외교 싱크탱크 ‘채텀하우스’의 갈립 딜레이는 클르츠다로울루 후보가 대통령이 된다면 서방 국가와의 관계 회복에 집중하리라 전망했다.

“클르츠다로울루 후보는 서방과 더 공식적인 관계를 구축해나갈 것입니다. 국제적인 사안에 대한 튀르키예의 태도는 에르도안 대통령 시절에 비해 개인적인 성격보단 더욱더 외교적인 성격을 띠게 될 것으로 보입니다.”

아울러 클르츠다로울루 후보는 당선된다면 튀르키예의 EU 가입 신청을 다시 시작할 것이며, 유럽인권재판소(ECHR)의 판결 또한 준수하겠다고 밝힌 바 있다.

그러나 시리아 난민 수백만 명을 수용한다는 EU와의 거래에서 손을 떼겠다고 위협하기도 하는 등 서방 강대국들과 관계를 강화하면서도 기꺼이 맞설 수 있다는 자신감을 내비치는 인물이다.

우크라이나 전쟁 관련 정책은?
우크라이나에 공급한 터키제 드론 ‘바아락타르 TB2’의 모습
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튀르키예는 우크라이나에 자국산 ‘바아락타르 TB2’ 드론을 지원했다

지난해 2월 우크라이나 전쟁이 시작한 이후 튀르키예는 러시아와 우크라이나 사이에서 균형을 맞추고자 노력 중이다.

서방 세계의 대러 제재에 동참하지 않으면서도 우크라이나에 군용 드론(무인기) ‘바이락타르 TB2’를 수출하는 식이다.

또한 러시아가 흑해 해상운송을 통한 우크라이나 곡물 수출 선박의 안전을 보장한다는 내용의 ‘흑해 곡물 이니셔티브’ 체결에서 중재자 역할을 맡기도 했다.

영국 엑시터 대학에서 아랍 및 이슬람 국가에 대해 연구하는 함둘라 베이카는 이런 상황에서 클르츠다로울루 후보가 대통령이 될 경우 튀르키예와 러시아의 거리는 멀어지리라 전망했다.

베이카 연구원은 “(에르도안 현 대통령과 달리) 클르츠다로울루 후보는 러시아와 그리 깊은 관계를 맺지 않았을 것”이라면서도 “그렇다고 러시아와 척지지도 않을 것”이라고 덧붙였다.

중동국가와의 관계는?
리비아에서 튀르키예군은 시리아 동부를 중심으로 칼리파 하프타르 장군이 이끄는 반군에 맞서 수도 트리폴리를 중심으로 활동하는 ‘국민협의정부(GNA)’를 지원하고 있다.

이에 대해 런던 시티 대학 소속 베굼 졸루 박사는 “튀르키예 입장에서 리비아 사태는 자국의 오랜 사업적 이해관계가 걸린 일”이라면서 “(따라서) 튀르키예는 리비아의 안정을 바란다”고 설명했다.

지난 2019년 이라크 북부에서 순찰 중인 튀르키예군의 모습
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이라크 북부에서 ‘쿠르드 노동당(PKK)’ 등 쿠르드족 단체에 맞서 싸우고 있는 튀르키예 군인들의 모습

한편 이라크에선 어떨까. 튀르키예군은 이라크와 시리아에서 ‘쿠르드스탄 노동자당(PKK)’과 ‘시리아수호부대(YPG)’에도 맞서고 있다. YPG가 PKK를 지원하고 있다는 게 튀르키예 정부의 주장이다.

PKK는 튀르키예는 물론 다른 여러 국가에서 테러 단체로 간주하는 무장 조직이다.

그러나 이는 YPG를 시리아 내 핵심 동맹 세력으로 간주하며, 알 아사드 현 대통령 정권에 반대하는 미국의 심기를 건드는 행동이다.

한편 클르츠다로울루 후보는 이러한 문제에 “불간섭주의” 외교 정책을 채택할 것이라고 약속했으나, 실제로 당선된 이후에도 이라크, 시리아, 리비아에서 튀르키예군 철수를 명령할지는 확실하지 않다.

졸루 박사는 “클르츠다로울루 후보가 속한 야당 연합에는 이러한 철군에 반대하는 민족주의자들도 대거 포진해 있다”고 설명했다.

중국과의 관계는?
튀르키예와 중국의 관계는 무역과 금융을 중심으로 살펴봐야 한다.

튀르키예는 무역 능력 강화를 위해 중국의 ‘일대일로 이니셔티브’에 가입했으며, 중국으로부터 대출도 받았다.

중국산 ‘시노백’을 접종받는 터키 노인들의 모습
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중국은 튀르키예에 자국산 코로나19 백신 ‘시노백’ 5000만 회분을 공급했다

또한 지난 코로나19 팬데믹 기간 중국은 튀르키예에 처음으로 백신을 제공한 국가이기도 하다.

이런 상황에서 에르도안 행정부는 중국의 심기를 건들지 않고자 노력 중이다. 이에 따라 같은 튀르크계인 위구르족에 대한 중국 정부의 탄압 의혹에도 침묵을 지키고 있다.

반면 클르츠다로울루 후보는 대통령으로서 위구르족 탄압 문제와 관련해 중국 정부에 목소리를 낼 것이라고 주장한다.

그러나 베이카 연구원은 “클르츠다로울루 후보가 지금은 위구르족을 위해 목소리를 내고 있으나, 막상 권력을 잡은 뒤엔 조용해질 수도 있다”고 설명했다.

아프리카에서 진행 중인 ‘소프트 파워’ 정책의 향방은?
세네갈 국기와 튀르키예 국기를 들고 있는 세네갈 학생들의 모습
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2018년 세네갈을 방문한 에르도안 대통령을 세네갈 학생들이 환영하는 모습

지난 20여 년간 튀르키예 정부는 아프리카 수십 개국에 새롭게 대사관을 건립했다.

그뿐만이 아니라 아프리카 대륙 전역에 학교를 세우고 아프리카 출신 학생들에게 튀르키예 유학 비용을 지원하는 등 소프트 파워(문화적 영향력) 중심의 정책을 펼치고 있다.

또한 몇몇 아프리카 국가엔 드론 등 군사용 방어 장비를 수출하기도 했다.

이렇듯 에르도안 행정부가 아프리카에서 적극적인 행보를 보이는 이유에 대해 졸루 박사는 국제사회에서 빈국의 수호자로서의 튀르키예 지위를 높이려는 노력으로 보인다고 설명했다.

“에르도안 대통령은 서방으로부터 버림받았다고 느끼는 국가들을 연합하고자 노력해왔다”는 것이다.

그러면서 졸루 박사는 대통령이 바뀌더라도 튀르키예의 이러한 아프리카 정책은 그대로 유지될 가능성이 크다고 마무리했다.