1. 미국의 이란 원유 1억 4천만 배럴 제재 해제 목적과 효과?
결국 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄 해제가 답이다. 원유가격과 가솔린,가스 가격의 급등하고, 미국내외 여론이 좋지 않은 상태에서 트럼프의 고육지책이다. 이 틈에 러시아는 경제적 이익을 취하고 있고, 중국은 지정학적 몸값을 올리고 있다.
(1) 베센트 말은, 이란이 호르무즈 해협을 봉쇄해서 원유가격을 배럴당 150~200달러로 폭등시켜 미국을 압박하는 것을 막겠다는 전술이다. 해상 유류저장고에 있는 이란산 원유 1억 4천만 배럴의 수출을 허용했다. 3월 12일, 러시아산 원유 1억 3천만 배럴 수출 허용한 바 있음. 이란산 원유를 중국,인디아 등으로 수출하게 만들어서, 10~14일 정도 원유가격 폭등을 막겠다는 의도임.
산술적으로 호르무즈 해협을 통과하는 원유가 하루 2천만 배럴이기 때문에, 이란산 원유 1억 4천만 배럴이면, 7일치에 해당함.
(2) 이스라엘과 달리, 미국은 국제 유가 상승으로 국내외 여론이 좋지 않다는 것에 민감하게 반응하고 있다.
(3) 베센트가 러시아산과 이란산 원유 2.7억 배럴의 수출을 허용함으로써, 10일~14일 정도 버틸 수 있다고 말했는데, 이는 미국이 이란과의 전쟁을 계속 수행하건 종료하건 시간을 벌어보겠다는 의도이다.
2. 효과가 있을 것인가? 러시아산,이란산 합쳐서 2.7억 배럴로는 가격 폭등을 막기에는 부족하다고 전문가들은 지적이 다수로 보인다.
에너지와 국가안보 관계를 연구하는 레이첼 짐바 주장 “이미 경제제재 대상 원유는 그림자함대 등 방식을 통해 원유시장에서 거래되고 있기도 하고, 러시아산과 이란산이 게임 체인저 역할을 할 정도는 아니다”
- 레이첼 짐바 신미국안보센터(CNAS) 선임 객원 연구원. 에너지와 국가안보 연구.
3. ‘해외자산통제국’ 출신 데이비드 탄넨바움은 베센트의 제안을 ‘말도 안되는 소리 this is banana’라고 함. 그 이유는, 결국 이란의 원유 수출을 허용해서, 전쟁비용을 마련하게 될 것이다.
전쟁 전에, 중국은 이란의 석유를 아주 싼 가격에 수입할 수 있었다. (steep discount)
4. 러시아산 원유에 대한 제한적 해제 조치 (4월 11일까지)
유럽국가들은 미국의 러시아 원유 제재 해제에 대한 비판, “푸틴 정권만 강화시켜주고, 우크라이나와의 전쟁을 연장시켜주는 꼴”이라는 비판 제기.
우크라이나 젤렌스키는 트럼프 조치에 강력 반대.
US considers lifting sanctions on some Iranian oil
Natalie Sherman
Business reporter
EPA Silhouettes of two tankers on silver ocean water against a golden sunsetEPA
The US is weighing lifting sanctions on some Iranian oil, as it scrambles to contain the impact of its war in Iran on energy markets.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put forward the idea in a Fox interview, saying it could make more oil available to global buyers. Around the world, energy prices are shooting up as the war takes a toll on shipping and production.
If put into action, the move would mark a stunning reversal of longstanding American policy - and one with highly uncertain pay-off.
Experts said it was likely to have a limited effect on prices, and could boost funds going to the Iranian regime that the US is attacking.
"To put it mildly, this is bananas," said David Tannenbaum, director of Blackstone Compliance Services, a consultancy specialising in maritime sanctions. "Essentially we're allowing Iran to sell oil, which could then be used to fund the war effort."
Before the war, China was the primary buyer of the oil coming out of Iran, scooping up the barrels at a steep discount due to sanctions imposed by the US and other countries.
In the interview with Fox Business programme Mornings with Maria on Thursday, Bessent said a waiver on the sales restrictions could help divert more of those supplies to other countries in need of oil, such as India, Japan and Malaysia, while forcing China to pay "market price".
He said the US was looking at removing sales restrictions on Iranian oil that is already at sea, which he said amounted to about 140m barrels. He estimated that would push down global prices for 10 to 14 days.
But Bessent did not go into detail about how a potential waiver would work or whether it could include rules to prevent money from the sales from flowing back to the Iranian government. The treasury department declined to provide more detail about the proposal.
President Donald Trump, when asked about whether he would move forward with the idea, did not provide a clear answer, telling reporters on Thursday that "we will do whatever is necessary to keep the price" before cutting himself off.
Because the supply under discussion is relatively small compared to overall demand, the waiver would not have much impact on prices, experts warned.
What's more, while lifting sanctions may open up those barrels to more buyers, much of the oil was already making it to market.
"It could add a little bit ... but I don't think it's a game changer and it raises a whole lot of questions," said Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a think tank.
The proposal follows other US efforts to boost supply, including the release of millions of barrels of oil reserves and the suspension of some sanctions on Russian oil last week.
That second decision sparked significant blowback from leaders in Europe, who said it would strengthen Putin's regime and prolong the war in Ukraine.
It is not clear whether Bessent's proposal could spark a similar reaction in the US, where the House of Representatives just this week passed a bill aimed at strengthening sanctions on Iran's oil sector.
Mike Lawler, a Republican from New York who sponsored the bill, did not respond to a request for comment. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, the top Democrat on the foreign affairs committee, also did not respond to a request for comment.
Ziemba said she did not think the US would want money from oil sales to go to Iran's government - but it could be hard to prevent in practice.
That the US is even considering such a step is a sign of the administration's concern about the current energy shock, she said.
"The US government is definitely in an every-barrel-counts situation because of the scale of the supply shock," she said. "They're looking to find additional oil wherever they can."
About a fifth of the 100m barrels of oil that the world consumes every day usually travels via the Strait of Hormuz, which runs along part of Iran's coast. But since the war began at the end of February, shipping in the channel has come to a halt.
While some of the barrels being transported through the strait have been successfully re-routed, experts still estimate that the war has knocked about a tenth of the world's supply out of the market.
Concerns about the situation have increased, as damaging tit-for-tat attacks on a key gas field operated by Iran and Qatar raise the risk that capacity for providing fossil fuels could be constrained for years, even if the conflict is resolved relatively quickly.
