bbc 기사 (폴 아담스) 작성을 읽고.
3월 20일. 미국(이스라엘)-이란 전쟁. 이스라엘의 이란 '가스전' 폭격을 미국이 몰랐다고 발표하면, 믿을 사람이 얼마나 되겠는가? 미국 정보망에 이스라엘 전투기가 다 포착되는데.
1. 미국 트럼프와 이스라엘 네탄야후 사이 정치적 이해득실 차이가 벌어지고 있다.
미국(이스라엘)과 이란과의 전쟁에서, 이스라엘이 주도권을 가지고 있다. 네탄야후는 다음 총선에서 재선 가능성이 커졌고, 트럼프는 11월 중간선거에서 질 가능성이 커졌다.
2. 트럼프가 길게 쓴 메시지에 대한 해석 (이스라엘측의 공격은 더 이상 없을 것이다. 대문자. NO MORE ATTACTS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL)
이스라엘이 이란의 '세계 최대 , 사우스 파르스 가스전'을 폭격했는데, 트럼프가 그 사실을 몰랐다고 적음.
그러나 이스라엘 전투기가 이스라엘에서 이란까지 날아가는데, 그 사실을 미국이 몰랐을 리가 없음.
분석 (1) 이스라엘이 단독으로 이란 '사우스 파르스' 가스전을 폭격했다
(2) 카타르, 이란, 미국 (트럼프)은 사전에 전혀 몰랐다.
(3) 이란은 전체 상황, 즉 미국의 허락과 동의없이,이스라엘의 단독 폭격임을 모른 상태에서,
카타르의 LNG 시설에 '보복 폭격'을 가했다.
트럼프가 '해석 여지'를 남겼다. '만약에 이란이 전체 그림을 알았더라면, 카타르 LNG 시설을 폭격하지 않았을 수도 있다'는 식으로 끝을 흐렸다.
(4) 트럼프가 이 정도까지 '내가 말했으니까' 이란이 더 이상 다른 국가의 정유시설을 폭격하지 말라. 만약 폭격하면 '대폭격'을 가하겠다.
3. bbc 보도 참고 자료.
국무부 중동 담당 차관보였던 데이비드 새터필드 주장.
(1) 미국과 이스라엘의 이란 공격 목표는 거의 동일하지만, 전쟁 종료 시점에 대한 계획이 다르다.
트럼프는 '전쟁 승리 선언'할 것이고, '돈키호테식 정권 교체' 목표를 가지고 있지 않다.
(2) 이스라엘 네탄 야후의 목표는, '이란의 무질서한 파괴'이다.
bbc 기사 (폴 아담스 작성) 후기.
Are US and Israel aligned on Iran war? Deciphering Trump's post after gas field attacks
Paul Adams
Diplomatic correspondent
Getty Images / Truth Social Composite image showing a face of Donald Trump on the left, and his Truth social post on the left, whih reads 'Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar’s LNG Gas facility.
NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar - In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the long term implications that it will have on the future of Iran, but if Qatar’s LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate to do so. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J.
TRUMP'Getty Images / Truth Social
US President Donald Trump has issued a typically strongly worded statement in the wake of attacks on a major gas field shared by Iran and Qatar on Wednesday.
Israel hit Iran's South Pars - part of the world's largest natural gas field – and Tehran retaliated by striking an energy complex in Qatar. The attacks led to a spike in energy prices, and fuelled Trump's wrath.
On his Truth Social media platform, Trump threatened Iran again and said he didn't know about Israel's plans for the attack.
So what does the language used by the US president tell us about the course of the war and the extent to which the US and Israel are aligned on its strategy and goals?
Let's break it down.
The US 'knew nothing' about the attack
The president says the US "knew nothing about this particular attack".
This flies in the face of multiple newspaper reports in Israel in the aftermath of the attack.
The attack "was co-ordinated in advance with the United States and… agreed upon between Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu and US President Trump," the centrist paper Yedioth Ahronoth reported.
Right-wing paper Israel Hayom goes further, saying "President Trump discussed the upcoming Israeli strike in [Iran's coastal city of] Asaluyeh with leaders of three Persian Gulf states over the weekend".
As is often the case with the president's assertions, it is not easy to know where the truth lies.
His choice of words to describe the Israeli attack is also telling. "Out of anger," he says, Israel "violently lashed out" against the gas field. This is the sort of language used to describe some of Iran's wilder retaliations - not a carefully considered military operation by a close ally.
Is Trump suggesting that Israel acted unwisely?
Israel will make 'no more attacks' on gas field
The president's use of capitals is notorious, but in this lengthy post, he resorts to all caps just once.
"NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field," he writes, "unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case Qatar."
For a president who needs to feel he's in control, was this a reflection of an undertaking already given, or a shot across Benjamin Netanyahu's bows?
As is often the case with Trump's stream-of-consciousness Truth Social posts, it's not easy to tell.
But it carries echoes of reports that Trump was angered by Israel's attacks on Iranian oil depots earlier in the war.
So are Israel and American war aims diverging?
It would probably be a mistake to read too much into a single late-night post from President Trump.
Israeli officials are keen to emphasise that the two countries are in lockstep, even if they occasionally, inadvertently, hint at gaps.
On Thursday evening, Netanyahu held a press conference in which he echoed Trump's statement, saying that Israel had "acted alone" in striking the gas field, and that Trump had asked that Israeli forces "hold off" from further attacks like it.
He repeatedly sought to paint a picture of himself and Trump as united on Iran – with Trump in charge – asking, "Does anyone really think that someone can tell President Trump what to do?" and saying, "I don't think any two leaders have been as coordinated as President Trump and I. He's the leader. I'm, you know, his ally."
On Thursday morning, Alex Gandler, spokesman for the Israeli embassy in London, told the BBC, "We are very much aligned on most or all of our goals regarding the Islamic regime in Iran, the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps], their ballistic and nuclear programmes," and "We want the same thing."
But while the two allies clearly agree on much, Israel has been much more consistent about its desire to see regime change in Iran.
Officials quoted in the Israeli media this morning have painted the South Pars attack as part of an ongoing effort to undermine the regime's authority.
"The gas supply to citizens is being shut off, and that will bring the uprising closer," one official told Yedioth Ahronoth's Yossi Yehoshua.
Netanyahu has made no secret of his decades-long desire to topple the Islamic regime, which he – and many Israelis – see as intent on destroying the Jewish state.
While the US has concentrated much of its military effort on degrading Iran's missile and drone capability, sinking its Navy and, in recent days, attacking targets along Iran's long Gulf shoreline, Israel has gone to great lengths to assassinate Iran's leaders and attack elements of state control, including paramilitary Basij units responsible for much of the violent crackdown on protests earlier this year.
David Satterfield, a former US special envoy for the Middle East, said Israeli and American objectives are closely aligned - except when it comes to when to call a halt.
국무부 중동 담당 차관보였던 데이비드 새터필드 주장.
(1) 미국과 이스라엘의 이란 공격 목표는 거의 동일하지만, 전쟁 종료 시점에 대한 계획이 다르다.
트럼프는 '전쟁 승리 선언'할 것이고, '돈키호테식 정권 교체' 목표를 가지고 있지 않다.
(2) 이스라엘 네탄 야후의 목표는, '이란의 무질서한 파괴'이다.
"I strongly believe he [Trump] wishes to find a means to credible declare a victory that does not ring empty," he told the BBC. "He is not…looking for a quixotic regime change goal that was never on the cards realistically."
For Netanyahu, Satterfield said, Iran's chaotic breakdown is "a desirable goal."
Iran 'did not know' facts about attack
In his post, President Trump insists that Qatar was neither involved nor had any advance knowledge of the attacks.
But "unfortunately", he writes, "Iran did not know this" before retaliating "unjustifiably and unfairly".
Trump is certainly not letting Iran off the hook here, but he does appear to suggest that Iran did not know the full picture when it struck back - that Tehran may, erroneously, have thought Qatar was involved.
Threat to 'massively blow up' Iran's gas field
Parts of the Truth Social post are classic Trump - threats to use unprecedented levels of violence to get his way.
If Iran attacks Qatar's LNG [liquefied natural gas] facilities again, he warns, the US "with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before".
Trump and his combative Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth are fond of such bombast. Donald Trump, the self-styled "president of peace", frequently deploys this kind of rhetoric.
And it is certainly true that Washington could inflict infinitely more damage on Iran – and its people – than it has already.
The reference to Israeli consent for threatened action is jarring.
Was this a rebuke to Netanyahu – and a reminder, in no uncertain terms, of the need to consult more closely in the future?
With elements of Donald Trump's Maga movement [Make America Great Again] already convinced that it is Israel, not America, calling the shots in this war, there is a risk that some of the president's critics might see this as an unfortunate Freudian slip.
But with oil and gas prices rising again, thanks in part to the latest tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran, and little obvious sign of progress in efforts to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Donald Trump sounds impatient.
This war continues to throw him curve balls, which the administration does not appear to have anticipated.
Support for the war, still sky high in Israel, is at less than 50% in the US. The conflict could help secure another term as prime minister for Netanyahu, while costing Donald Trump's Republican Party in November's midterm elections.
Israel and the US are close military allies, but this is the first time they've fought a war together.
Between them, they've racked up some impressive achievements in just under three weeks.
But with each passing day, the war is proving more complicated than Donald Trump thought.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8x7leknlywo
Are US and Israel in lockstep in Iran war? Deciphering Trump's post after gas field attacks
What does Trump's Truth Social post after gas field attacks tell us about US-Israeli alignment?
www.bbc.com
미국의 이란과의 전쟁에 대한 여론조사.
