미국 대선, 여론조사. 해리스 48.6%, 트럼프 45.9% , 20-30 유권자 주요 관심사. '경제 정책' 경제 성장, 소득 불평등, 빈곤 (economic growth, income inequality and poverty)

10월 8일. 전국 여론조사. 해리스 48.6%, 트럼프 45.9%

 

플로리다. 트럼프 50.3%, 해리스 45.3%

 

펜실베니아. 해리스 48.2%, 트럼프 47.4%

 

뉴욕. 해리스 53.9% 트럼프 39.7%

 

미시건 - 해리스 48.2%, 트럼프 46.4%

 

캘리포니아. 해리스 59.8% , 트럼프 34.8%

 

 

18세~29세 유권자 층에서는, 민주당 해리스 후보가 공화당 트럼프에 31% 앞서.

 

미국 유권자 민심.

 

일한 만큼 제대로 보상을 받지 못하다고 발언하는 미국 젊은 유권자들.

인플레이션 (고물가)과 고금리 때문에  노동소득과 실질소득, 가처분 소득이 줄어든 미국 젊은 유권자들의 최대 관심사는 경제 문제이다.

 

 

1. 경제 현안이 2024년 미국 대선의 핵심 주제로 나서다.

 

 

18~26세 미국 유권자의 관심사는, 경제 성장, 소득 불평등, 빈곤 문제 해결이 가장 중요한 관심사이다.

 

22-24세 유권자는 빚 문제, 신용카드, 자동차 대출, 주택담보대출에 관심 표명. 

 

비교:
2020년 대선에서 가장 중요한 이슈는 COVID 문제, 인종차별과 건강이었다. 

 

2. 문제는 투표율이다.

 

2020년 35-64세의 69% 가 투표 참여,

 

65세 이상 유권자는 74%가 투표 참여.

 

아직도 젊은층의 투표 참여율이 노인보다 낮다. 

 

3. 미국 해리스 후보 정책

 

처음으로 자가주택을 구매하는 사람에게 2만 5천달러 보조금 지원.

신생아 가족에 6천달러 세금 보조.

 

4. 트럼프는 조 바이든 정책 비난 일관.

 

 

 

 

 

 

For Gen Z, US election is all about the economy

 

Nathalie Jimenez & Natalie Sherman

BBC News

 

Isabella Morris Isabella Morris and her husband and two-year-old son pose for a pictureIsabella Morris

Isabella Morris says it's tough to make ends meet as a young family

 

 

The US presidential election is just weeks away and one essential voting bloc is getting a lot of attention from both parties: young voters. But it’s economic woes – from inflation to housing – that could drive them to the polls.

 

It’s Isabella Morris’s first presidential election, and the 21-year-old mum from Rosenberg, Texas, said she’s listening closely to what both candidates have to say.

 

Recently married with a two-year-old, Isabella works part-time to supplement her husband’s full-time income. She stays at home with her child while her family rents a small one-bedroom apartment.

 

The plan seemed solid—two incomes, no mortgage, or daycare costs—but it’s not enough.

 

“Our debts are paid off, but we can’t afford any mistakes. We have no savings, nothing. One job used to be enough to live on, even at a minimum wage. Now it feels like we’re barely scraping by," she said.

 

Influencers swarm convention as Democrats' secret weapon

 

Are Gen Z ready for the C-suite?

 

 

Economic fears about her future will drive her to vote in November, but when she spoke to the BBC, she was still undecided which candidate she would support.

 

“As these elections draw closer, we cannot possibly fathom a candidate not addressing the economic crisis right now,” she said.

 

Isabelle is one of 8 million young people who will be voting in a presidential election for the first time.

 

Comprising about a third of the US electorate, voters under 35 are being fought over by both parties, and polls show the economy is their top priority this election season.

 

 

 

Though reproductive rights, the war in Gaza and gun violence have dominated headlines when it comes to young voters’ policy priorities, 18-26 year-olds rank economic growth, income inequality and poverty as the most important problems facing the country, according to a Gen Forward Survey conducted by the University of Chicago and released in September.

 

That’s in contrast to the 2020 election, when COVID-19, racism, and healthcare outranked the economy as the main issue driving young voters to the polls, according to the same survey.

 

'The situation has degraded'

 

 

Isabella’s concerns reflect the broader challenges facing young voters, who are entering a world of high rents, unaffordable homes and slowing job creation - not to mention a once-in-a-generation surge in prices, according to economics

 

 

 

9월 미연방은행은 금리 인하.

 

Last month, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the first time in more than four years, a decision which could lead to lower borrowing costs on mortgages, credit cards and saving rates for millions of people. But it remains to be seen whether the change in rates will change people’s outlook on the economy.

 

"The overall situation has degraded," Ms Scanlon, 27, told the BBC, noting that young people today have it worse than previous generations - even millennials who entered the workforce after the 2008 financial crisis.

 

A Gen Z-er herself, Ms Scanlon often turns to TikTok, where she has more than 180,000 followers, to educate young people about the economy.

 

 

22-24세 유권자는 빚 문제, 신용카드, 자동차 대출, 주택담보대출에 관심 표명. 

 

People ages 22-24 hold more debt of all kinds – credit cards, car loans and mortgages – than millennials did at the same age, the credit agency TransUnion found. And their debt is rising faster than their income.

 

“There's no beginner mode anymore—the bottom rung of the ladder just feels completely gone, I think, for most of the generation,” Ms Scanlon said.

 

And those fears of being left behind could drive voters to the ballot box, experts say.

 

Abby Kiesa, deputy director of the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), told the BBC she expects about half of young voters to turn out this election – a similar turnout to 2020, which had the highest turnout in decades and an 11% increase compared to the presidential election in 2016.

 

 

2018년 중간 선거에서 젊은 유권자 투표 참여율이 높았다.

 

 

Meanwhile, the 2018 midterms saw a record-breaking turnout among young voters, according to CIRCLE.

 

That’s still far below the turnout of other age groups.

 

2020년 35-64세의 69% 가 투표 참여,

 

65세 이상 유권자는 74%가 투표 참여.

 

아직도 젊은층의 투표 참여율이 노인보다 낮다. 

 

In 2020, 69% of eligible Americans 35-64 voted, while 74% of voters over the age of 65 went to the polls, according to the US Census.

 

 

But in an election that will be won by a razor’s edge, being able to rally a significant percentage of new voters could help give a candidate the boost they need to win.

 

Ms Kiesa said focusing on addressing economic hardship will be key if politicians hope to boost turnout among Gen Z-ers feeling disconnected from politics.

 

“For the past three elections, turnout among young voters has been historic,” she said. “We need candidates who understand, engage, and speak with them. That’s what has to change.”

 

Will dollars and cents win votes?

 

 

The two presidential nominees - Trump and Harris - have both sharpened their economic message in recent weeks and stepped-up efforts to appeal to young voters.

 

Harris has expanded on the Biden administration’s economic initiatives around student loan forgiveness, consumer pricing and housing affordability.

 

She’s proposed a $25,000 subsidy for first-time home buyers and a $6,000 tax credit for families with newborns.

 

 

 

 

Her campaign has doubled her youth organising staff and invested heavily in digital ads. She has enjoyed endorsements from high-profile celebrities including Taylor Swift and Billie Eilish, and built momentum by embracing viral memes about the vice-president on social media. Harris has also spent the last year touring college campuses in key battleground states.

 

 

Meanwhile, Trump has sought to capitalise on economic dissatisfaction among young people, attacking Harris and Biden’s economic record and highlighing lower prices on goods under his administration.

 

Both he and Harris have promised to eliminate tip taxation - a move aimed at the service industry, which employs millions of young people - and committed to ending regulatory barriers on cryptocurrency.

 

The former president has also tried to reach younger voters through social media, podcasts, and partnerships with influencers. He’s posted TikToks with influencers like Logan Paul and Adin Ross.

 

 

Polls showed Trump made inroads among young voters while he was running against Biden, who is 81. When he was still in the race, he led Trump by only a few percentage points, and the GenForward survey showed young people thought he handled the economy better than the Biden administration.

 

 

But momentum has shifted back to the much younger Harris.

 

 

She now holds a 31-point lead over Trump among likely voters aged 18-29, according to the Harvard Institute of Politics poll released in late September.

 

18세~29세 유권자 층에서는, 민주당 해리스 후보가 공화당 트럼프에 31% 앞서

 

 

'We need representation'

 

Economic woes aren’t just driving people to vote, they’re lighting a fire in some young people to run for office themselves.

 

Gabriel Sanchez, 27, a Democratic candidate for the Georgia state legislature, said he’s running for office to try to help ease the financial strain on his generation.

 

 

As a waiter at a sports bar, he said rent hikes have forced him to move repeatedly. He is concerned that essentials like stable housing are becoming a privilege for many young Americans.

 

 

“Most of us aren’t able to own a home, afford healthcare or buy the basic things we need,” Sanchez said in a TikTok posted on his campaign account.

 

 

In May, Sanchez and three other young candidates cruised to victory in Georgia’s Democratic primary election, an outcome dubbed as Gen Z’s night in Atlanta.

 

 

Sanchez said he believes his economic struggles resonated with voters.

 

 

일한 만큼 제대로 보상을 받지 못하다고 발언하는 미국 젊은 유권자들

“We’re working hard but not seeing any rewards. This economy isn’t working for us,” Sanchez said. “We need representation - candidates who understand what young people are going through.”

 

 

But it’s not only Democrats that are luring young candidates.

 

Wyatt Gable, a 21-year-old in his last year at East Carolina University, won the Republican primary for North Carolina’s House of Representatives. He defeated George Cleveland, a 10-term, 85-year-old, incumbent.

 

If elected in November, Wyatt will become the youngest person ever to hold a seat in the state legislature.

 

As he prepares for the November vote, he said he expects the economy to be top of mind for young people at the polls this year.

 

 

“My generation feels it. Seeing how bad inflation is, and with interest rates skyrocketing, that's going to be the biggest thing on young people's minds when they go to the ballot box,” he said.

 

 

10월 8일. 전국 여론조사. 해리스 48.6%, 트럼프 45.9% 

 

 

 

플로리다. 트럼프 50.3%, 해리스 45.3% 

 

 

 

 

 

펜실베니아. 해리스 48.2%, 트럼프 47.4% 

 

 

 

 

 

뉴욕. 해리스 53.9%

트럼프 39.7% 

 

 

 

미시건 

 

해리스 48.2%, 트럼프 46.4%

 

 

 

 

 

캘리포니아. 해리스 59.8% , 트럼프 34.8% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czeg87x125ro

For Gen Z, US election is all about the economy