한국정치 노트 Notes on the Politics of Korea

트럼프 김정은 회담 취소 편지 +1

트럼프는 왜 새벽에 긴급회의 열고, 아침 7시부터 서둘러 북미회담 취소를 결정했는가? 


트럼프 편지를 어떻게 해석할 것인가? 트럼프는 김정은이 마음이 바뀌면 "전화나 편지를 하라"고 썼고, 백악관 발표장에서도 "김정은의 회신을 기다리겠다"고 했다. 결론부터 말하자면, 612 싱가포르 북미회담은 취소되었지만, 북한과 미국은 재협상에 들어갈 것으로 보인다.


생뚱맞은 북미회담 장소 싱가포르에서 차라리 미국과 북한의 수도, 스웨덴, 판문점 세군데 중에 한 곳에서 다시 북미 정상회담이 열리기를 희망해본다. 


그렇다면 트럼프는 왜 급작스럽게 612 싱가포르 북미정상회담을 취소했는가?


첫번째, 가장 중요한 이유는 '비핵화'에 대한 미국의 기대치가 아직 달성되지 못했기 때문이다. 북미간 의견차이는 '비핵화 denuclearization'에 대한 개념 정의다. 북한의 비핵화와 미국의 비핵화 개념이 서로 다르다. 미국은 협상파인 마이크 폼페오조차도 '비핵화' 범주에 핵무기 물질 폐기, 핵무기 조사단의 권한을 북한에서 말하는 것보다 훨씬 더 강화시켜야 한다고 주장, 대륙간 탄도 미사일 폐기까지 포함시켰다.


트럼프 백악관 기자회견보다 마이크 폼페오가 미 상원 패널에 나가서 발언한 것이 훨씬 더 중요하다. 최근 김계관, 최순희가 존 볼튼과 마이크 펜스 부통령을 비판하는 국면에서, 마이크 폼페오 미국측 협상팀이 북한 협상팀과 회동이 이뤄지지 않았다고 증언했다. 싱가포르에서 두 협상팀이 만남이 성사되지 않았다고 폼페오가 말했다.


그렇다면  왜 북한의 북미회담 준비팀은 폼페오 준비팀을 만나지 않고, 폼페오 말대로 바람맞혔는가? 바로 미국측 '비핵화' 개념이 북한 평양의 '비핵화' 개념보다 훨씬 더 많은 것을 요구하고 있기 때문이다. 


미 국무장관 마이크 폼페오가 두 차례 평양을 방문해 김정은과 회담을 가졌음에도, '비핵화' 개념정의와 절차, 북미간 정치적 교환의 호혜성을 두고 이견을 좁히지 못하고 있음을 우리는 알 수 있다. 


북한의 입장에서 볼 때, 트럼프가 말로는 '김정은의 통치 권한 보장', '리비아 모델'이 아닌 '트럼프 모델' '코리아 모델', '북한의 경제성장 원조' 등을 언급했지만, 실제 북미간 비공식 회담에서는 미국의 '비핵화' 범주가 북한의 '주권'을 훼손하고 있다고 북한 정부는 보고 있다. 


북한은 북미정상회담을 통해 최대치 목표는 1) 핵보유국으로서 북한의 국제적인 승인 2) 이러한 승인을 바탕으로 핵보유국인 북한이 스스로 핵감축을 한다는 선언 3) 북한의 비핵화 뿐만 아니라, 한-미-일 군사동맹의 완화와 미국의 핵우산과 전략핵의 축소, 4) 북한의 경제발전을 위한 국제 사회의 협조와 투자 등이다. 


그런데 북한 김정은의 입장에서 볼 때, 존 볼튼과 마이크 펜스와 같은 강경파들이 북한 '주권'을 훼손하는 발언을 Fox News 와 같은 매체에서 계속해서 쏟아내고 있기 때문에, 트럼프 행정부가 일관성이 결여되어 있다고 판단했다. 

김계관, 최순희의 최근 볼튼과 펜스에 대한 비난은 이러한 배경에서 나온 것이라고 본다. 


이번 트럼프 취소 편지에서는, 북한이 최근 마이크 펜스 부통령을 공개적으로 비난했기 때문에, 트럼프가 현 시점에서 북미 정상회담을 하는 것은 적절하지 못하다고 밝혔다. 하지만 이것은 정치적인 공방전의 일부이고, 실제 북미간 갈등의 근본적인 씨앗은 '비핵화' 방식과 그 보상댓가를 두고, 북미간 의견차이 때문이다.


결론적으로 말해서, ‘비핵화’ 개념에 대한 북미간 견해 차이, 한국 중국 러시아 일본의 이해관계 차이를 줄여 나가야 한다. 


두번째 이유는, 트럼프 개인 정치 스타일과 관련되어 있다.


트럼프가 이번 북미 정상회담을 하기로 결정한 것은, 11월 미국 중간 선거에서 트럼프 반대파인 민주당과 공화당 내부 트럼프 비판자들의 코를 납작하게 해주는데, '북한 카드'를 활용할 수 있다는 합리적 계산 때문이었다. 


그런데 트럼프 반대파들이 제기하는 북한에 대한 수많은 의구심을 깨뜨리는데, 현재까지 마이크 폼페오를 내세워 진행하고 있는 북한과의 비공식 준비 회담의 결과가 부족하다고 트럼프가 판단했다.


기존 전통적인 외교 관행을 고려했을 때, 트럼프의 북미회담 취소 기자회견은 아마추어 같은 행태이고, 개인 감정과 공적인 정치를 구별하지 못한 어린이같은 행동이다. 


트럼프는 기존 미국 대통령과는 다르다. 그 발언은 미국 여느 동네 아저씨 말투이다. 김정은이 시진핑을 대련에서 다시 만난 것에 대해서 직설적으로 '나 그런 거 좋아하지 않는다 I don't like that' 그렇게 말해버렸다. 그 후에 말이 더 걸작이다. '내가 중국 방문했을 때, 시진핑이 나를 얼마나 극진하게 대해줬는데, 나도 시진핑이랑 엄청나게 친하다.' 이 말은 무슨 의미인가? 트럼프가 김정은에게 보내는 노골적인 불만인 것이다. 김정은이 트럼프 '자존심 상하게 만들었다'고 트럼프는 해석하는 것이다.


'아니 내가 다 알아서 북한 김정은 당신 체제 보장해주고, 자본 투자도 한다고 말하지 않았느냐? 북한 당신들은 핵무기나 다 폐기하고,미국 사찰단 권한을 더 주라. 그런데 내 말을 못믿고, 다시 시진핑을 만나 플랜 B를 나 몰래 공모했다는 말이지? 김정은 네가 나를 먼저 만나자고 했지, 내가 당신더러 만나주라고 애원했느냐? 아쉬우면 당신이 먼저 전화하던가 그래라'


트럼프는 회사 사장시절부터, 한국으로치면 김앤장보다 더 강력하고 보수적인 변호사들을 고용해서, 소송당사자 회사건 개인이건 항복할 때까지 돈으로 끝장을 본 인물이다. 


트럼프 입장에서 볼 때, 11월 중간 선거를 앞두고, 북한과의 정상회담은 아직 시간적 여유가 있다. 그래서 반트럼프 정치집단들, 민주당과 공화당내부 반대파들에게 보여줄 '강한 남자'로서 트럼프의 위대함 시연이 필요한 것이다. 


가난하지만 '주권'과 '자주 국방'이라는 국가적 자존심으로 버티는 북한과,

아직까지는 세계 최고 부강한 나라 대통령, 자본가 출신 회장님 경력을 지닌 트럼프의 '내가 최고'라는 자존심 대결이 앞으로도 지속될 것이다. 


물론 당연히 물밑에서는 북미간 비공식 회담이 진행될 것이다.


우리들에게 필요한 것은 인고의 정치적 지혜다. 왜냐하면 아직 우리는 정치적으로 미국 중국보다 약소국이기 때문이다. 하지만 세계 평화와 민주주의 확산에는 한국이 중국과 미국보다 더 큰 기여를 할 수 있다는 자신감은 버리지 말아야 한다. 



아래는 관련 신문 기사들, 트럼프 편지 원문임.


Full text: Trump’s letter canceling North Korea summit

 

05/24/2018 10:14 AM EDT

May 24, 2018 
His Excellency 
Kim Jong Un 
Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 
Pyongyang

Dear Mr. Chairman:


We greatly appreciate your time, patience, and effort with respect to our recent negotiations and discussions relative to a summit long sought by both parties, which was scheduled to take place on June 12 in Singapore. 

We were informed that the meeting was requested by North Korea, but that to us is totally irrelevant. I was very much looking forward to being there with you. Sadly, based on the tremendous anger and open hostility displayed in your most recent statement, I feel it is inappropriate, at this time, to have this long-planned meeting. 

Therefore, please let this letter serve to represent that the Singapore summit, for the good of both parties, but to the detriment of the world, will not take place. You talk about your nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God they will never have to be used.


I felt a wonderful dialogue was building up between you and me, and ultimately, it is only that dialogue that matters. 

Some day, I look very much forward to meeting you. In the meantime, I want to thank you for the release of the hostages who are now home with their families. That was a beautiful gesture and was very much appreciated.


If you change your mind having to do with this most important summit, please do not hesitate to call me or write. The world, and North Korea in particular, has lost a great opportunity for lasting peace and great prosperity and wealth. This missed opportunity is a truly sad moment in history.


Sincerely yours,
Donald J. Trump 
President of the United States of America



Trump calls summit cancellation a "tremendous setback" -- live updates

  • President Trump has cancelled the upcoming summit between the United States and the North Koreans in a new letter released on Thursday. Mr. Trump writes in the letter that he was "very much looking forward to being there with you. Sadly, based on the tremendous anger and open hostility displayed in your most recent statement, I feel it is inappropriate, at this time, to have this long-planned meeting."

    He also told Kim in the letter, "You talk about your nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God they will never have to be used."

    Read the letter here:

    unnamed-1.jpg

    Trump letter to Kim Jong Un canceling June summit.


    Follow live updates as this story develops:

  • South Korea's calls cancellation "embarrassing" in tweet

    In a translated tweet from South Korea's Blue House, their presidential office, President Moon Jae-in expressed that it was "embarrassed and regretful that the North American summit was not held on June 12 that was scheduled. Denuclearization of the Korean peninsular and enduring peace are historic tasks that can not be abandoned or delayed."


    The translated tweeted added, that the "sincerity of the parties who have tried to solve the problem has not changed."

    According to Yonhap News Agency, Moon had urged leaders in the U.S. and North Korea to directly talk to each other Friday, hours before Mr. Trump's letter went public.

  • Singapore ministry "regrets" cancellation

    Singapore's Ministry of Foreign Affairs tweeted that they "regret" that the scheduled summit "will no longer take place on 12 June 2018. Singapore hopes that the dialogue and efforts to find lasting peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula will continue."

  • Trump calls dialogue with Kim "wonderful"

    Mr. Trump continued to commend Kim Jong Un for engaging in a "wonderful dialogue" with the U.S. despite the president calling off the June talks. He said that North Korea still wants to do what's right.

    He suggested the leaders have had a good working relationship, noting the successful return of American hostages. "We didn't have to pay, we wouldn't have paid," he added.

    The president also suggested that dialogue with the North Koreans was "very good until recently." He said he thinks he understands what went wrong, but declined to explain it. "Someday, I'll give it to you, you can write about it in a book," he told the press.

  • Trump calls summit cancellation a "tremendous setback"

    Speaking from the White House, President Trump called the summit's cancellation a "tremendous setback" for the North Koreans and the world alike. He held open the possibility that the cancelled summit might still take place at a later date.

    "Nobody should be anxious, we have to get it right," Mr. Trump said.

    His message to Kim: "I am waiting", adding that current economic sanctions and the administration's maximum pressure campaign will continue. "I hope that Kim Jong Un will ultimately do what is right, not only for himself, but perhaps most importantly what's right for his people, who are suffering greatly and needlessly," the president said.

    Mr. Trump noted that he had spoken to his military chiefs, including Department of Defense Secretary James Mattis, and suggested that the U.S. stands "ready if necessary."

    The president said that he had also spoken to officials in South Korea and Japan, where they communicated that they are ready should "foolish or reckless acts" be taken by North Korea in response to the summit's cancellation. He said that the countries are also "willing to shoulder much of the cost of any financial burden and the costs associated by the U.S. in operations if such an unfortunate situation is forced upon us."

    "We are more ready than we have ever been before," Mr. Trump said. When asked if calling off the meeting raised the risk of war, the president replied "Well, we'll see what happens."

  • Congressional reaction today on Trump cancelling summit

    Reaction from Capitol Hill to the North Korea summit cancellation was swift. House Speaker Paul Ryan said in a statement that the U.S. must "continue to work with our allies toward a peaceful resolution, but that will require a much greater degree of seriousness from the Kim regime."

    House Foreign Relations Chairman Ed Royce, said that the Trump administration should "continue to look for opportunities while applying maximum diplomatic and financial pressure against Kim Jong Un."

    Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Arkansas, commended the president for "seeing through Kim Jong Un's fraud." He added, "As I have long said, our maximum-pressure campaign on North Korea must continue."

    Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Florida, meanwhile placed blame on the administration, writing "The cancellation of this summit reveals the lack of preparation on the part of President Trump in dealing with a totalitarian dictator like Kim Jong Un. We've seen similar lack of preparation by the president in dealing with the leaders of China and Russia."

    Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer responded on the senate floor, saying "The fear many of us had was that the summit between President Trump and Kim Jong-Un would be a great show that produced nothing enduring."

    He added, "If a summit is to be reconstituted, the United States must show strength and achieve a concrete, verifiable, enduring elimination of Kim Jong-Un's nuclear capabilities."

  • Pompeo on summit cancellation

    During questioning before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Pompeo told lawmakers that he was part of the discussions last night and this morning that led to the decision by Mr. Trump to cancel the summit.

    Pompeo would not tell the committee whether the administration had informed South Korea that the summit would be cancelled before the letter was released, but he said that the U.S. and South Korea are in "lockstep."

    He said he hopes that the parties will be able to return to where they were "six, eight, twelve weeks ago," and he expressed confidence that this would be laid out in "some detail" in the coming days.

  • WH official on summit cancellation

    There were reports that the North's reaction to Pence's comments prompted the cancellation of the summit, but a White House official told CBS News' Jacqueline Alemany that there was too much focus on that, and the more salient development was that the North Koreans had threatened nuclear war against the American people in their statement Wednesday night.

  • Pompeo testifies before Senate after North Korea meeting news

    Meanwhile, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is answering questions from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the administration's foreign policy goals after testifying before the House Foreign Relations Committee one day before for over 3 hours. He started the hearing by reading the president's letter to Kim Jong-Un. Later he told lawmakers that America was "ready" for the summit with North Korea.

    "We're rockin, we're ready. President Trump was prepared for this meeting. We were fully engaged to prepare for this meeting," Pompeo said.

    He added when asked about the reasoning behind the cancellation, "I regret the statements that North Koreans have made over the past few days and the fact that we have not been able to conduct the preparation between our two teams that would be necessary to have a chance for a successful summit."

    Pompeo added that between the direct talks he had with Kim, he believed the offer he brought to Kim was serious and that Kim believed it was a sincere effort.

    "Over the past many days, we have endeavored to do what Kim and I agreed, to put teams together to prepare to work for summit and we received no response from them," he added.

  • North Korea nuclear test site destroyed Thursday

    Just Thursday, North Korea announced it had destroyed its Punggye-ri nuclear test site. The planned dismantling was previously announced by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ahead of the now-cancelled summit meeting with President Trump.

    North Korean officials brought about two dozen international journalists to the testing area, in the northeast part of the country. CBS News correspondent Ben Tracy was the only U.S. broadcast network correspondent on hand to witness several large explosions at Punggye-ri. He was among about two dozen international journalists who had been brought to the site to witness what the North said was the decommissioning of the nuclear test site.

  • Trump keeps door open for new meeting

    Mr. Trump also wrote to Kim Jong-Un he felt a "wonderful dialogue was building you and me," and continued, "Some day, I look very much forward to meeting you." He thanked Kim for the recent release of three American hostages, calling it a "beautiful gesture and was very much appreciated."

    "If you change your mind having to do with this most important summit," he adds, "please do not hesitate to call me or write."

  • North Korea's comments to Pence

    The letter's mention of "tremendous anger and open hostility" appear to refer to insults from the North Koreans directed at Vice President Pence.

    North Korean Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs Choe Son Hui, quoted by the state-run news agency, said of Pence Thursday, "I cannot suppress my surprise at such ignorant and stupid remarks gushing out from the mouth of the US vice-president."

    Pence in a separate interview with Fox News on Wednesday, seemed to threaten the North. "You know, as the president made clear, this will only end like the Libyan model ended if Kim Jong-un doesn't make a deal."

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-news/trump-north-korea-meeting-canceled-kim-jong-un-open-hostility-today-live-updates-2018-05-24/


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