정책비교/국제정치2015. 7. 26. 23:24

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에티엔 발리바르, 산드로 메자드라, 프리더 오토 볼프 , 7월 20일,2015

뷔르셀 (EC) 강제 조약 (diktat) 그리고 향후 전망


ETIENNE BALIBAR, SANDRO MEZZADRA, and FRIEDER OTTO WOLF 20 July 2015


1. 기본인식: 제 3차 구제금융 협상안은, 강제 집행 불가능하다 (unenforceable):

(두 당사자들이 합의한다면, 이것은 타당하지만, 법원이 그 두 당사자들을 강제로 그 협약을 실행하라고 명령할 수 없다)


- 그리스 위기 3 단계

1) 채무 상황과 긴축정책 결과들

2) 유럽이 부국과 빈국, 경제주권 소유와 박탈 국가로 분리되다.

3) 민주 체제의 붕괴, 그로인한 포률리즘에 기초한 민족주의 발호


그리스인의 시각에서 볼 때, 협상안은 강제 명령 (diktat) 1914년 베르사이유 Versailles 조약, 그 결과, 독일은 하이퍼 인플레이션, 마이마르 공화국 붕괴, 나치즘 등장, 결국 제 2차 세계대전 발발

왜 이런 주장이 타당한가? 2가지 이유다.

첫 번째, 유럽은 그리스의 시각에 볼 때, 고리대금업자와 약탈자였다.

왜 그러한가? 그리스자원의 성장이나 생존가능성을 목표로 하지 않고,

그것들이 다 고갈될 때까지 빼먹는 것을 목표로 설정했다.

- 유럽채권단 트로이카는 통화주의 교조 monetarist orthodoxy (*마스트리히 조약에 근거) 와 2012년 정부 기초 재정 협약 budgetary pact of 2012 고수

- 더 악날한 것은, 트로이카 역시 그리스 현실을 잘 알고 있다는 것이다. (1) 그리스 국가 채무는 지난 10년간 2배로 뛰었다. (2) 경제 재앙 때문에 국가 채무가 GDP의180%에 육박한 게 아니라, 생산과 소비의 붕괴 때문이라는 것도 잘 알고 있다.

=> 결국, 트로이카는 그리스에 대한 정치적 보복을 한 것이고, 그리스인들이 수치심을 느끼도록 만들었다.


두 번째 이유:

양해 각서 Memorandum of Understanding 이 그리스 기존 법률을 폐지할 수 있고 대체할 수 있는 권력을 가진다. 특히 행정부의 탈-정치화 ->주권 탈취하겠다는 의도이고, troika 에 반대하는 급진파들이 그리스 시리자 정부에 장관으로 일하지 못하게끔 원천봉쇄, 제거하겠다는 것이다.

- 트로이카 관료가 다시 아테네로 와서 시리자 정부를 감시한다.


2. 유럽의 신 헌법

어떤 종류의 정치정체 (政體 : regime) 이냐? 유럽에서 그 정체 특성이 뭐냐?

어떠한 거버넌스인가? 살펴보자.


- 현재 유럽 연합의 지배적인 통치 양식은 신자유주의이고, 그 신자유주의적 ‘자유 liberty' 는 본질적으로 강압적, 억압적이다.

- 상층 행정 관료 엘리트들이 유럽연합 정치를 지배하고 독점하고 있다.

“닥치고 수용해라 ! 팻 어컴플리 ‘fait accompli’ ”

- 특징은, 위로부터 아래로 눌러찍은 ‘혁명’

- 누구를 위한 정치인가? 유럽 국가들의 은행들, 금융자본의 이익에 부합하고 있다.

- 독일 사회정치학자 하버마스는 이러한 유럽연합 정치 특징을 가리켜 “ 탈-민주주의적 행정관료-연방주의” 라고 명명했다. 다시 말해서, 유럽연합 민주주의는 심각한 결함이 있다는 것이고, 그 특징적 문제점은 행정 관료들의 명령이 시민들의 의사 결정보다 더 앞선다는 것이다.


- 이러한 행정 관료 엘리트 정치 행태 특징은, 불투명하고 비공식적인 정치 행태로 일관하는 것이다. 따라서 유럽위원회 EC는 더 이상 정치적 이니셔티브를 갖지도 못하고 각 국가들간 이해관계들을 조정해내지도 못하고 있다.


- 대표성 상실; 유로그룹 (재무장관 회의체) : 조약에 의해서 만들어진 그룹도 아니고, 규칙도 없다. 내부에서 그냥 대변인을 뽑고, 독일의 영향력 아래에 있다.


- 물론 독일 제국주의가 실제로 존재한다고 해도, 유럽의 물질적 구성 자체가 독일 제국주의의 가면이라고 말하는 것은 아니다.


독일 헤게모니 특징은 무엇인가?

(1) 직접적이지 않다. 간접적이다. 보조적이다 혹은 매락에 의한 것은 아니다.

(2) 독일 헤게모니는 부분적이다. 권력 블록(리그/연합/동맹: power bloc)에 참여하고 있는 다양한 적대자들로부터 오는 도전에 직면해 있기도 하다.

(3) 유럽중앙은행 내부에도 갈등은 있다. 바이트만 (Weidmann) 과 드라기(Drahi: 유럽중앙은행 총재) 사이에 주기적으로 갈등과 이견이 발생하고 있다. 또한 독일 재무장관 쇼이블레과 유럽중앙은행이 동일하지 않다.


- 드라기는 그렉시트를 원하지 않는다.


반면 쇼이블레는 그리스 유로존 탈퇴를 요구했다. 유로존을 독일 중심으로 만들어나가기 위해서였다. 이러한 통치 거버넌스 내부 차이와 분열 역시 유로존의 물질적 구성이다.

소결: 유럽연합과 유로존에서 독일의 단일한 헤게모니가 작동하지는 않는다


그렇다면 제 3차 구제금융 협상의 특징은 무엇인가?

(1) 그리스 정부에 비현실적이고 달성불가능한 구조 개혁 ‘강제 명령 Diktat'이다.

(2) 향후 전망: - 그리스 뿐만 아니라 유럽 다른 사회 세력들의 반대에 부딪힐 것이다. 이러한 반대와 저항이 어떻게 전개될 것인가? 그것은 현재 그리스 국가 채무위기를 비롯한 유럽 위기에 각 국가들이 어떠한 전략을 쓰느냐에 따라 달라질 것이다.


3. 유럽집행위원회 내부 프랑스와 독일 분열

‘Brussels night’ reveals Franco-German divisions


- 7월 11일~12일 협상 과정에서 드러난 것은, 독일과 프랑스의 불일치와 의견 차이이다.


현재 유럽국가들은 4가지 관점으로 분류될 수 있다.

영국은 유럽연합 탈퇴 Brexit 를 고민하기 때문에 제외하자.

1) 독일과 독일 편을 드는 국가들은 그리스에 ‘긴축’ 강요.

2) 북유럽과 동유럽의 빈국들 - 그리스에게만 채무 변제 혜택이 돌아가길 바라지 않는다.

3) 남부 서부 채무 국가들; 그리스와 달리 이미 긴축을 수용

4) 프랑와 이탈리아 입장: 정부 기초 재정 흑자(PS) 에 대해서 유로존이 개입하고 경제 주권을 침해하는 것에 대해 저항하다.


- 현재 독일의 역할은 정복자라기 보다는 유럽연합의 ‘규율’을 강조하는 학교 교장 선생 역할을 하고 있다. 왜? 독일이 유럽 연대 기금 3분의 1를 담당하고 있기 때문이다.


- 독일의 그리스에 대한 태도는, 그리스를 독일 보호령 protectorate state 로 간주하고. 그리스 자원을 착취하려고 한다. (사유화를 통해)


- 심지어는 그리스 시리자 정부 교체를 목표로 하거나, 시리자 정권 붕괴를 시도했다.

- 프랑스 좌파들은 그렉시트를 반대한다.

- 미국 역시 2008년 금융공황 이래로, 체계적인 위기 관리를 하고 있기 때문에, 그렉시트와 같은 불안정함에 반대하고 우려를 표명하고 있다.


- 그렇다면 독일의 목표는 무엇인가? 결국 그리스를 핑계로, 이탈리아와 프랑스의 ‘기초 재정 흑자 PS'를 마스트리히 조약 기준와 2012년 기준에 맞추도록 강요하고 있다. (그리스 전임 재무 장관 바루파키스 협상 후기)에 따르면, 독일의 이러한 전술 목표는 결국 프랑스와 이탈리아 길들이기이다.

- 올랭드가 그렉시트를 막아냄으로써 독일에 승리한 것처럼 보인다.

물론 독일의 요구가 관철되어 ‘긴축 통치안’ 내용은 독일 의도대로 통과되었다.


- 이제 다음 3가지 문제들을 살펴보자. 

(1) 채무와 정치경제학

(2) 구조적 불평등과 신 지배질서 (독일)

(3) 민주주의와 극우파 등장


4. 채무와 정치경제학 :통제불가능한 유럽 채무, 여전히 불안정한 유로 통화 체제

An uncontrollable European debt, a still unstable currency

채무 문제는 1) 채무의 소용돌이 카리브디스 Charibdis 와 2) 긴축 통치라는 스킬라 (Scylla) 사이에 진퇴양난이다.


그리스 국가 채무 해법은, 유럽 채무 문제를 ‘그리스 단일 국가’의 문제로 보지 말고, 유럽 전체틀 안에서 봐야 그 해법을 찾을 수 있다. 그리스 채무 위기가 말해주는 것은 특정 체계적인 ‘유럽 위기’이다. 이것은 유럽 전체 국가들의 ‘협동 해결책’을 필요로 한다.

다시 말해서 유로존을 ‘규율 통제와 통합’ 영역에 그치지 않고 집단적인 산업 발전과 구조변화의 관점을 지닌 통일적인 경제 영역으로 만들어 나가야 한다.


따라서 그리스 정부의 ‘빚탕감’과 ‘채무 구조조정’ 제안과 ‘범 유럽 채무 회의’ 틀 안에서 그리스 경제 재건이라는 두 가지 제안들은 진지하게 검토되고 수용될 필요가 있다. 이것은 또한 최근 IMF 가 긴축정책이 그리스에서 효과를 보지 못했다는 결론과도 일치하는 것이다.


- 유럽국가들이 민족주의에 빠져서도 안되고, 정치적 희생양을 만들어서도 안된다. (인종차별, 반-이민자 정책, 남북 유럽 갈등)


- 현재 유로존에서 독일이 취하는 이득이란? 독일이 지속적으로 이웃국가들을 희생양으로 재정 흑자를 달성하고 있다. 장기적으로도 채무 국가들의 이자율 스프레드로 인한 금융 수익을 챙기고 있다.


- 독일은 서남부 유럽국가들의 부패를 비난하기는 하지만, 정작에 부패와의 전쟁에 참여하지 않는다. 왜냐하면 현 체제에서 이익을 보고 있기 때문이다.


5. 구조적 불평등과 신 지배질서 (독일): 불평등, 분열, 그리고 지배의 유럽

The Europe of inequalities, fractures, and dominations


- 채무 문제, 그리고 해결책에서 빠져 나가버린 게 있는데, 그게 바로 유럽 연대를 향한 정치적 의지 문제이다. 장기적인 유럽의 과제는 내부 불평등을 해소하는 것이다.

이 불평등 원인들은 사회적 역사적 원인들이 있고, 이것들은 유럽이 계속해서 서로 분할되고 재통일되는 과정에서 발생한 것들이지, 문화적 차이에 근거한 것이 아니다. 이러한 문화적 차이를 강조하는 것은, 미디어나 정치적 해설가들이 떠들기 좋아하는 ‘유럽 내부 인종차별주의’에 다름 아니다.


- 과거 냉전 시대 동-서 유럽의 차이와 갈등이 이제 유럽 남북으로 축을 바꿨다.

- 유럽 내부 국가들 사이 노동 분할 1) 서남부는 관광 특구 역할 2) 북부에 싼값에 노동력을 제공한다는 시각은 잘못되었다.

- 프랑스 (현재 산업 쇠퇴, 실업율 때문에 고생) 매개자 역할 위치.

- IMF 가 유럽 국가 정부 기초재정(ps) 흑자 문제에 개입하고, 유럽 난민 문제에도 개입하다.


6. 민주주의와 극우파 등장: 유럽 민주주의 부재 속에서, 국가 포퓰리즘

In the absence of European democracy, state populism


(1) 그리스 국민 투표의 의미 - 인민 주권 회복

- 독일을 비롯한 유럽 국가들, 7월 5일 그리스 국민 투표에 대한 비난들, 문제점.

- 유령이 유럽을 배회하고 있다. 인민의 목소리, 인민 (人民)권력이라는 유령이.

- 국가 주권보다 트로이카 제도들이 더 큰 의사 결정을 가질 때, 문제는 그 제도들이 민주적으로 선출된 권력이 아니라는 것이다.

- 경제적인 협상안이 단기적으로 파괴적 영향을 미치고, 장기적으로 우려를 자아내는 긴축통치안이다.


(2) 왜 반-그리스 담론이 나오게 되었는가? “ 그리스를 위해서 유럽 시민들이 세금을 내고 있다.” 이런 프로파간다가 ‘민족주의’ 포퓰리즘을 생산하고 있다.

- 외국인 혐오주의, 독일, 프랑스, 네덜란드, 핀란드에 나타났다. 왜 이러한 극우적 포률리즘이 등장하게 되었는가?

그 이유는, 유럽 경제 위기는 발생했는데, 이를 해결할 유럽 전체 ‘제도들’이 미비하기 때문이다. 현재 유럽 의회는 그런 역할을 하지 못하고 있다. 그 반대로, 반-그리스 정서, 반-독일 정서만 도드라지고 있다. 결과적으로 지금 유럽은 외국인 혐오주의, 반-유럽주의, 반-정치, 집단적 감정 과잉 현상들이 나타나고 있다.


(3) 무엇을 할 것인가?

외국인 혐오주의, 친 나치즘 탄생, 극우파 운동을 막아내기 위해서는?

이러한 흐름에 저항하는, 민주적 개입/참여가 필요하다.

1) 새로운 제도들을 만들어 내야 한다.

2) 유럽 시민들의 목소리를 담아낼 초국적 ‘반-포퓰리즘’ 운동이 필요하다.


- 생태, 노동권, 이주자 소수자 권리, 부정부패 탈세와의 투쟁.

시리자가 주목을 받은 이유가 무엇인가? 위와 같은 운동을 해서 그런 것 아닌가?

시리자 성과도 있었지만, 지금 위험한 상황에 놓여져 있다.


7. 시리자의 전략적 딜레마는 무엇인가

Syriza’s strategic dilemma


(1) 제 3차 구제금융 협상안 = 유럽 채권단 트로이카의 ‘강제 명령’을 실제 집행할 것인가?

그리스 은행들 영업 재개와 유럽중앙은행의 유동성 공급을 조건으로, 그리스 의회는 트로이카 메모랜덤을 가결했다.

제 3차 구제금융 협상안에 대해서, 시리자 중앙위원 과반수 이상이 비판적이었다. 그러나 의회에서는 야당의 도움으로 통과되었다. 대신 시리자 의원들 중 일부가 반대했다.


<첫 번째 딜레마>

- 트로이카 패키지 ‘제 3차 구제금융 협상안’의 가치와 조건들에 대한 토론이 이제 그리스에서 시작되었다.

- 독일과 유럽연합은 그리스에 대해 여전히 강경하다.

- 트로이카 채권단이 그리스에 요구한 ‘긴축 통치’ 실행이 어떠한 결과를 가져올 것인가?

- 시리자 정부가 트로이카의 ‘긴축 통치. 강제 명령’을 받아들이면서 동시에 그리스 내부 개혁을 수행할 수 있는가?


(1) 그리스 시리자 정부의 자율성 확보

(2) 사회복지 축소로 인해서 피해당할 그리스인들을 어떻게 구제할 것인가?

(3) 부정부패와의 전쟁은 어떻게 수행할 수 있을 것인가?

실제로 그리스 내부 구조 개혁을 치프라스 정부가 할 수 있겠는가?


- 아니러하게도, 역설적이게도 그리스 시리자에 대한 외적 지원은 IMF로부터 왔다.

최근 IMF 제안서에 따르면, 유럽 채권단 트로이카가 제시한 ‘긴축’안을 가지고서는 그리스 채무 문제를 해결할 수 없기 때문에, 그리스 부채탕감을 해줘야 하고, 유럽이 그리스에 원조를 더 해야 한다고 주장했다. 유럽채권단과 트로이카, 특히 독일의 강경한 입장 조건 속에서, 이러한 IMF의 제안을 폄하하기는 어렵다.

- IMF는 현재 정치 경제 지형에서 ‘내적 모순들’을 만들어내고 있다.

- IMF 역할이 ‘반대 조정자 reverse mediator' 역할을 하고 있다. 다시 말해서,

국제 금융 이해관계와 유럽 내부 정치 목표 사이 균형을 의미한다.


- 혹시 IMF 개입이 의미하는 바가, 재협상의 시작인가?

지금 당장은 유로존 국가들이 그리스에 ‘긴축안’을 실행하라고 압박을 가할 것이다. - 쇼이블레는 또다시 ‘한시적 그렉시트’를 다시 가동하려 할 것이다.

충돌은 불가피하다는 이야기이다.


<두 번째 딜레마>

그리스 내부 상황 (사회적, 도덕적, 정치적) 차원이다.

- 대안은, 그리스 시리자 치프라스가 ‘솔직해야 한다’, 오류는 시인하고 당당하게 시민들에게 용서를 구할 것은 구해야 한다. “제 3차 구제금융 협상안은 최상의 것이 아니었고, 재앙을 회피하기 위한 선택이었다” 등


- 그리스 국민들 사이 내부 분열을 극복해야 한다. 그렇지 않으면 내부로부터 국론은 분열될 것이다.

- 그리스 시리자의 승리: 7월 5일 국민투표는 비밀스런 트로이카의 장막 정치를 걷어냈고, ‘정치의복원’을 일궈냈다. 쇼이블레, 융커, 데이셀블룸, 반대표는 그렉시트를 의미한다고 협박했는데 이를 극복했다. 민주주의 원리라는 측면에서 그리스 시리자는 승리했다. 그러나 그 이후, 시리자와 치프라스는 힘에서 트로이카에 밀리고 말았다.


- 시리자 내부 <레프트 플랫폼>은 적들을 이롭게 해서는 안된다.

- 유의미함 인정: <레프트 플랫폼>은 민주적 실천을 수행하고 경험했다.

- 또 치프라스 반대자들도 단일한 시각이 아니다. <레트프 플랫폼>과 콘스탄토풀루-바루파키스는 서로 다르다. 후자는 새로운 유럽을 위해 새로운 그리스를 건설하자고 외치고 있다.


- 제안: 시리자 통일 단결해야 한다.

- 만약 시리자가 분열하면, 무슨 일이 일어날 지는 아무도 예상할 수 없다. 그리스와 유럽 전역을 일깨운 운동의 희망은 사라질 지도 모른다.


8. 유럽을 위한 대장정, 우리의 연대

‘Long March’ for Europe: our solidarities


- 시리자 치프라스 Vouli 방송 연설:

“우리의 선택은 최선이 아니었다. 중단없이 올리가히와의 전투에 나서야 한다.

트로이카가 더 부추긴 부정부패와도 싸워야 한다.“


- 유럽의 운명, 그리스는 유럽의 충돌과 도전의 심장부에 있다.

- 우리가 그리스 시리자를 지원해야 하고 연대해야 한다.

- 우리가 반대할 것은, 테크노크라시, 엘리트 부정부패, 인민 경멸, 기초 재정 흑자에 대한 압력과 트로이카의 그리스에 대한 ‘긴축’ 강제명령(diktat) 이다.


- 현재 유럽 국가들 상황 정리:

(1) 그리스 아테네 신탁마 광장 뿐만 아니라, 신-자본주의 요새인 독일에서도 대안적 저항들은 일어나고 있고,

(2) 스페인에서도 (포데모스 이외에도)

(3) 프랑스에서도, 사회민주주의가 이제 공화주의적 애국주의로, 경쟁적 파괴, 그 문화의 상업화로 변모하고 있는 프랑스에서도,

(4) 이탈리아에서도, 유럽 국경의 군사화와 요새화에 반대하고 있고,

(5) (공공기업의 사유화 문제로 인해서 촉발) 영국에서는 고립주의에 대한 찬반 토론이 활발해지고 있다.


- 유럽 좌파의 공통 구호는 긴축 통치에 대한 민주적 혁신과 저항이다.







.


The Brussels diktat: and what followed

Alexis Tsipras won the battle on a question of principle - the need for a new Europe - even if he lost the war that ensued. What are the implications for the Greek left and for Europe? (Long: 9,000 words) Français. Deutsch.

Alexis Tsipras, February 2015.Alexis Tsipras, February 2015. Demotix/indiPHOTOpress. All rights reserved.Does the unjust and forced ‘agreement’ between the Greek government (now facing the task of ratifying the agreement in the Vouli) and the other states in the European Union (not all of whom feel the necessity for such a sanction) mark the end of one era and the beginning of another? In many ways yes, but almost certainly not in the sense indicated to us by the 'Summit' report. In reality, the agreement is fundamentally unenforceable in economic, social and political terms, though it will be ‘forced through’ by a process that promises to be at least as brutal and even more divisive than the extremities we have seen over the last 5 years.

It is therefore necessary to try to understand the implications of the agreement and to discuss its consequences, avoiding all use of rhetoric but not of engagement or passion. 

In order to do so we must first look at how the negotiations unfolded (those opened by Alexis Tsipras’s return to Brussels on the back of his ‘triumph’ in the July 5 referendum – which, for good reason, has not ceased to fuel incomprehension and criticism among his supporters in Greece and abroad), and secondly we must look at what these negotiations tell us about the positioning of the various European forces.

We must define the stage that the crisis in the EU has reached (a crisis of which Greece is both the symptom and the victim) in terms of three strategic domains: firstly the debt situation and the effects of the austerity measures; secondly the division of Europe into unequal zones of prosperity and sovereignty; and finally the collapse of democratic systems and the resulting rise in populist nationalism.

But first, it is vital that we include an ‘assessment’ of the Brussels agreement: ‘as seen from Athens’ (from the Greek people’s point of view) and ‘as seen from Europe’ (which does not mean as seen from Brussels, whose institutions clearly have no awareness whatsoever of the current European climate).

The ‘agreement’ from the Greek perspective 

Seen from Greece, the agreement seems to be well and truly like a diktat. Varoufakis went so far as to mention ‘Versailles’, a provocative allusion to the 1918 treaties which had the well known repercussions for German history and for the fate of the world. The accusation was sufficiently serious and credible for Merkel to state immediately that she is unconcerned with ‘historical comparisons’… This dramatized illustration is justified for two closely linked reasons.

The first is this: even though Tsipras’s July 7 proposals in Brussels constituted a large concession on his part (accepting, in the main, the proposals of budgetary and economic austerity that he had previously refused, in particular those concerning retirement and taxation), they were nevertheless integrated into a Greek government project (so as not to say a ‘plan’) of adjusting Greece’s economy and finances, whereby, under conditions that would have certainly been more difficult than desirable, he could have hoped to develop his own political strategy in the interests of his people.  Incidentally, this is why Tsipras went along with the repeated demands for an adjustment of the debt (demands increasingly supported by renowned economists with very different orientations - both from the IMF and independent of it).

Under repeated pressure from the German minister for finance and the president of the Eurogroup speaking in his name, it is precisely this last attempt at rationality and coherence that Greece’s interlocutors immediately set about destroying, talking of their ‘loss of trust’ in the Greek government (a purely moral argument) and imposing punitive measures without any economic rationale.

The result has been an anti-plan of improvement that resembles bleeding the Greek population’s remaining resources (notably the resources of the poorest strata of society, those who are already right up against humanitarian catastrophe) and carving up the national economy in preparation for completely unpredictable ‘ideological’ privatizations. In this respect, measures like raising the retirement age are particularly significant – absurd if not criminal in an economy where youth unemployment is almost 60% – not withstanding the preventive ‘seizure’ of Greek assets that is reminiscent of a usurer taking guarantees (even if Tsipras, in an extremely difficult situation, managed to avoid the establishment of a local version of the Treuhandanstalt in Luxembourg, in an establishment which… is also headed up by Schauble!).

Europe conducts itself with respect to Greece in this instance, both as a usurer and as a predator, the objective not being to maintain the viability or growth of its resources, but instead to drain them until exhaustion. Whatever this anti-politics may be – rationalized in the eyes of some (perhaps in good faith) by the dogmas of a monetarist orthodoxy inscribed in ‘golden letters’ in the European treaties that have been signed since Maastricht, and reinforced by the ‘budgetary pact’ of 2012 – it clearly does not constitute any sort of justification since we are no longer at the beginning of the crisis, and all the European leaders (including the German ones) have observed the enactment of the regressive effects of the policies that they have imposed at their leisure. 

They know very well that Greece’s national debt, having doubled in 10 years, has not reached 180% of GDP because of its absolute growth (comfortably outdone, even in proportion to population, by other European countries), but instead as a result of the collapse of production and consumption. Therefore, it is not a question of rationality, nor of the creditors’ interests, but of political vengeance and the humiliation of an ‘interior enemy’. This is confirmed when we see that each measure that has been imposed corresponds exactly to a reversal of social or economic politics that Tsipras’ government was engaged in during its electoral programme and when it took office.

We must now move on to the second reason which allows us to talk of a diktat; perhaps an even more serious one and in any case a motive that is destined to seal the former: the measures of ‘trusteeship’ that create a protectorate within the EU and that are based on the model of ancient colonial practices but applied this time to one of its members (whom we demand thereafter to be symbolically ‘co-responsible’).

Undoubtedly the most blatant measure regards the sovereignty of parliament; the obligation to submit economically and socially sensitive draft legislation to the control and authorization of ‘institutions’, notwithstanding of course a ‘verification’ by these same institutions – the result of which will allow the release of European loans. To illustrate the functioning of this mechanism: the ‘Memorandum of Understanding’ has already imposed a series of predetermined legislative acts without delay (preliminary to the implementation of the agreement), cancelling existing legislation and replacing it. Together, the acts represent a programme of extreme neo-liberal transformation (without equal in modern Europe) of the right to work and of administration (which is not lacking in irony when we note that one of the principles is actually supposed to be the ‘depoliticisation of administration’!).

We have also noticed the demand for the ‘independence’ of statistical tools (arising after the Greek authorities’ carried out an ‘audit’ of their debt and its legitimacy), a demand guaranteed by the Troika experts’ return to Athens (whose level of personal independence is indeed beyond suspicion). Finally, it must be mentioned that the necessity for a governmental reshuffle (meaning the entry of anti-Syriza parties and the expulsion of the ‘radicals’) is a foregone conclusion in the corridors of the Brussels Commission. Materially, this means that the austerity measures and the trusteeship reinforce one another as policies, so that Greece is no longer a sovereign nation (in any sense since this process started years ago and was only halted by Syriza’s rise to power).

Unfortunately what this means is not that Greece is entering into a shared sovereignty – judicially equal and politically organized as would imply a progression towards European federalism – but instead that it is bowing to the will of the master. Which ‘Master’, however, are we talking about? It is at this point that we must look at the other side of the coin: the European Union.

Europe’s new constitution

We must do so by looking again at the facts and their historical significance, but also more deeply, by defining the material constitution presiding over modern Europe: the division of powers; the institutional shifts resulting from the Treaties and from the enactment of the treaties; the relationships between economic and political (and geo-political) forces; the hierarchy of interests codified by ‘rules’ and ‘principles’ for which states and their populations are forced to bend over backwards; the decision procedures (or as we say nowadays, the ‘governance’ procedures); the inequality of access to real power for different social and national groups and the impossibility of influencing it, etc. In short, we must ask ourselves what sort of ‘regime’ is modern Europe under?

Let us not revisit entirely what should already have become obvious, that is to say the institutionalization of neo-liberalism since the 1990 milestone that came in the form of the dogma of ‘free and fair competition’ whose ‘revolutionary transformative’ effects can be seen across society today – the EU’s equivalent of the Soviet Union’s state socialism.

If only to remind us that the belt is now tightened: neoliberal ‘liberty’ is essentially coercive.  It involves – wherever ‘deviations’ or ‘failures’ are identified (essentially among the ‘debtors’ and the ‘weak’) – incessantly forcing citizens to be free (as Rousseau ­– who would never have imagined this sinister use of his formula – would have said). Clearly, the degree of coercion varies enormously depending on one’s position on the scale of real power.  But more precisely: when the Greek and Italian governments were replaced by a constitutional manipulation (2011) and the preceding Greek referendum prohibited, the ‘revolution from the top down’ – which was set up at the beginning of the public budgets crisis and the arbitration in favour of the banks – was thenceforth a ‘fait accompli’. Habermas talked of postdemokratischer Exekutiv-föderalismus, a highly enlightening concept. 

But this ‘post-democratic executive’ that has taken effect on the (quasi) federal tier – because the federalism being built in Europe on extraordinarily fragile foundations comes entirely from the top – has the remarkable property of being only partially visible and institutionally legitimate. To a great extent, it remains occult and informal, which is clearly illustrated by the fact that the ‘European Commission’ no longer has the power of political initiative, nor of mediating the interests of the member states. Jean-Claude Juncker (president of the European Commission), threw in the towel – having already had to resign himself to a humiliating recoil a few weeks ago – after  a crucial question over the future of Europe arose regarding the hosting of refugees and the solidarity between states before the humanitarian catastrophe in the Mediterranean. The Commission, being now no more than a (proliferating) regulatory structure and a transmission belt, lost the power of negotiation to the Eurogroup: a group established by no treaty and following no rule, whose internally elected president then serves as a spokesperson for the most powerful and most influential of the member states – Germany, in other words. 

So, one power structure conceals another. Nevertheless, we must not hasten to conclude that the material constitution of Europe is simply a mask for ‘German Imperialism’, even if such imperialism really exists. Because in some ways, the German hegemony that is currently active in Europe has no choice but to be indirect, aided or not by context (in the case of the ‘Greek punishment’, incidentally, it benefited from a multitude of favourable conditions). In other ways it is partial, dependent on challenges coming from several adversaries who also participate in the ‘power bloc’ to varying degrees, adversaries who bring with them potentially deep divisions.  Undoubtedly, among these adversaries there are other European countries (the coalition of which might eventually be able to equal the German hegemony, except – as we have clearly seen in recent weeks – that they are held back within and without by their financial, and increasingly their ideological, dependence), and also – and of this we are convinced – the European Central Bank (ECB). 

Because the interest of the German economy (which wants to secure a privileged position in the world market) is not the same as the banking system’s economy (whose vault-key is the ECB, led by a former employee of Goldmann Sachs), it would be completely erroneous to assume that Berlin and Frankfurt are in harmony (in the same way, incidentally, as Mr Schäuble’s aggressive moralism is not the same as the speculative pragmatism of the monetary institution, as we have seen in the periodic conflicts between Mr Draghi and Mr Weidmann). This is why, when discussing ‘neoliberalism’, it would be prudent to be wary of the generalizations common amongst the members of the extreme left, because a common ideological framework does not dictate one sole politic and does not resolve conflicts of interest. 

Without doubt, the ECB played a decisive role during the episode which just unfolded, a role one has even labelled ‘terrorist’: by cutting off the cash assets to Greek banks, the ECB forced the Greek government to close them and to establish capital control, thereby placing the country’s economy on the brink of asphyxia and compelling Tsipras to choose between surrender and chaos. Schäuble and Dijsselbloem took advantage of this blackmail,  a fact that does not indicate, however, that this alliance works automatically. Draghi certainly did not want Greece to leave the euro (whilst Schäuble paid little attention and might have actually wanted Greece to leave in order to ‘tighten’ the zone around Germany): he took a risk and it paid off (for the moment).  The long term picture is a different one altogether. The division within the synthesized European ‘governing body’ is also part of its ‘material constitution’.

At this point we can begin to contextualize the assertion made above: that the agreement constitutes a fundamentally unenforceable diktat made up of ‘unrealistic and unachievable reforms’, (from Le Monde 14.07.2015, a journal, in actual fact, that has relentlessly pushed for the adoption of these reforms), a diktat that will be implemented by force to the point of absurdity.  Clearly, this will depend on the opposition that it sparks (within Greece and, one would hope, outside Greece, because it concerns all of Europe and all of Europe’s citizens), opposition that will grow and gain credibility as the contradictions and destructive effects of the diktat are exposed. But the opposition will depend on the consequences of the increasingly varied strategies being employed by the European states with regard to the crisis.

At this point and before penetrating the heart of the current contradictions, a digression would be a good idea, one that might help us reveal what resulted from the negotiations of the Brussels agreement of July 12-13.

‘Brussels night’ reveals Franco-German divisions

In general, political observers agree to divide up the European states into four groups with regards to the ‘Greek crisis’ and its logical solution (setting aside Great Britain, who does not count in this affair, especially since it is itself busy discussing an eventual ‘Brexit’): Germany and its more or less satellite countries, who align themselves to German politics or pre-empt it (so as to serve as figureheads for the most ‘merciless’ German demands – dixit Le Monde); the ‘poor countries’ of northern and eastern Europe who ‘conceded important sacrifices’ in order to access the eurozone and who do not want the Greeks to ‘benefit’; the ‘indebted’ countries of southern and western Europe who accepted the austerity measures that were rejected by the Greeks and fared variously in the aftermath; finally France (and in some sense Italy), who are not really complying with the regulations of the ‘agreement on budgetary discipline’, but who nevertheless wish to be considered as core members on the European ‘executive board’. 

In reality, this classification boils down to two groups, because the anti-Greek competition between different European countries – other than France and Italy (‘we can no longer be confident’, ‘we no longer agree to pay’) – was directly used (if not orchestrated) by Germany in the Greek affair (where the ‘Schäuble line’ prevailed over the ‘Merkel line’ in German politics). France alone, tacitly supported by Italy, took a (moderately) different position (in particular on the question of the Grexit).

Understanding the Franco-German division is the key, therefore, for at its base it is pretty decisive, but evidently not for the reasons defended by the French presidency.

With regard to the German government and its ‘inflexibility’, we believe that ideology and politics have always played a more fundamental role than economics (even if it is true that the German banks still have a huge chunk of Greece’s net-worth, and that the German budget provides nearly a third of the European Solidarity Fund’s resources). They reveal as much about German interior politics as the objective to create a continental hegemony – this ‘German Europe’ which Ulrich Beck described in his now famous book; not as a conquest but more like the project of a schoolmaster. 

The two schemas devised by the Bundesfinanzministerium and opportunistically leaked just before the reconvening of the Eurogroup – the interim Greek exit from the euro (a temporary arrangement, which everyone knew would become permanent); or the reduction of Greece to a protectorate state, and the expropriation of its resources – were equal in substance (from a political point of view), especially if one remembers that in both cases the ultimate objective was actually to destroy the Tsipras government. The second schema prevailed, due to the first’s difficulties of ‘principle’: it remains to be seen whether it will carry its project through successfully (though it seems pretty close already).

So what happened on the French side of the crisis?  Firstly we could hypothesize, that in contrast to the Germans, at some point Hollande became convinced that the only way of ‘forcing’ the austerity measures on the Greek people was by ‘advising’ Tsipras to make Syriza shoulder their weight (though this task will be much more difficult – if not impossible – given the extreme nature of the measures imposed by the European summit). The referendum itself (which infuriated the Germans and hardened their resolve to ‘smash’ the Greek government) played a role in this sense.  After all, Hollande himself has some experience in breaking electoral promises and must have found it easy to imagine that others might do the same…

Two other factors weighed in to make him risk everything to ensure that there would be no Grexit: the opinion of the French left – which mostly supported Syriza – on the consequences of Greece’s expulsion; the conviction of America’s hostile attitude towards the Grexit which stemmed from the dangers that would arise in the financial international monetary system (since 2008 the USA has nurtured an obsession with ‘systemic risk’). But the key is undoubtedly the issue raised by Varoufakis in his article in the Guardian on July 10, 2015: Germany is using the Greek situation to ‘discipline France’, to impose budgetary discipline – which France is in fact incapable of putting into practice – and to manipulate public opinion on the ‘sanctions’ which should result. Again, the issue is political; it raises as many questions about the distribution of power in Europe as about control over the dominant discourse. On that fateful night, one might say that Hollande (perhaps helped by Merkel against her own minister) ‘won the battle’ to keep Greece in the euro. But he undoubtedly ‘lost’ on the conditions which were imposed for that, and because it is these conditions that will determine what follows, we can assume that his apparent ‘victory’ will not carry him very far…

The unresolved problems – inflamed by last week’s standoffs – are inextricably ‘Greek’ and ‘European’ problems. Despite having to examine them alternately and from both angles, in reality, this means once again that they demonstrate to what extent Europe’s destiny is at stake in the Greek question, and to what extent the Greek decisions (their resistance, propositions, and eventually their errors and failures) lead to consequences for the whole of Europe today. 

Three general questions thrust themselves to the fore more prominently than ever: the debt and political economy; the structural inequalities and new relationships of domination; democracy and the danger of the extreme right.

An uncontrollable European debt, a still unstable currency

Let us begin with the debt. It seems appropriate to remind ourselves of something obvious: the cumulative European debt – public and private – is still growing and generating its own toxic derivatives, and is therefore putting the stability of the euro in permanent danger.  It possesses neither – in contrast to the USA – a compensation mechanism in the form of a universally accepted and hoarded reserve currency, nor a central bank which is authorized to ‘lend as a last resort’, and therefore involves both speculative risks and risks of economic stagnation such as those that we are seeing at the moment. 

Most attention is being paid to public debt. because: the States – since the 1880s – has been massively engaged in institutional dependence on the financial markets; the bailouts and provisions of liquid assets to private banks by the ECB (except when it is a question of putting pressure on the Greek government) have had the result of continually transferring the risk of speculative operations onto the citizens as taxpayers; the neo-liberal political discourse has not stopped chastising the ‘spendthrift’ States. In actual fact, the bulk of the debt is private; debts that force economies to hover between the Charybdis of indebtedness and the Scylla of austerity policies. 

This problem applies to Europe as a whole (even if the common currency is not adopted by all its countries at the present time, and no doubt never will be). The Greek debt represents without doubt a particular systemic risk (which we are not reducing by strangling the Greek economy or strangling its repayment possibilities!), but it is the whole system that is engaged on an unhealthy course that would call for a joint solution – in other words restructuring as part of the eurozone’s conversion into a coherent economic space, not only integrated or ‘disciplined’ but oriented towards a perspective of collective industrial development and transformation. 

Hence the pertinence of the Greek government’s proposal to examine the conditions of its own debt reduction and of its revival in the framework of a ‘pan-European conference on debt’, – taking into consideration all the variables in the problem and also taking the various stakeholders into account – a proposition swiftly ruled out by the ‘institutions’ who did not even listen to them. The Greek suggestion was indeed converging with the IMF’s conclusions after it discovered the ‘mistaken calculation’ at the heart of its previous austerity plan for Greece (which led it to no practical conclusions). 

At this point, we might ask ourselves about the reasons behind the unrelenting and insurmountable obstacle that prevents Europe from confronting its financial problem rationally and on an appropriate level: what is it that ceaselessly strives to find scapegoats? Nationalism and short-term egoism, plainly, together with the aforementioned ideological obsessions, but also banking interests and, once again, the anti-communitarian behaviour of one country (Germany), a country which ceaselessly submits budgetary surpluses at the expense of its neighbours and which has benefited over the long-term from the considerable ‘transfers’ from indebted countries by making a profit on the financial markets from the spread of national interest rates. We can see why Germany will not be pressed to become involved in a common struggle against corruption and tax evasion in its neighbours to the south, whilst it is also the loudest critic of this corruption as it tries to justify its imposition of trusteeship. In the same breath, Germany relentlessly places the value and stability of a currency in danger, a currency whose character it has proclaimed to be sacrosanct.

The Europe of inequalities, fractures, and dominations

The debt question and its missing solution – a solution based on the political will for a continental solidarity – raises a second issue, one that is more worrying still for European futures: the development of internal inequalities. They do not have a clear shape because they result from social and historical causes which are immersed in the history of the continent as a whole, and also because they stem from its successive divisions and reunifications (neglecting here the rhetoric on ‘cultural differences’ which the mass media and certain political commentators are fond of, with a flavour of intra-European racism ). 

Nevertheless, we might say that having tended to sway towards an east-west axis (reinforced by the political divisions in Europe and by the heterogeneity of its economic systems during the Cold War period) its internal inequalities now seem to be based on a north-south axis. The pseudo-economic resolution of the Greek crisis – coming after the ‘solutions’ enforced in Spain and Portugal (where public accounts and the reliability of banks were reestablished at the expense of an explosion in unemployment) – dramatically demonstrate the size of the chasm which is deepening within a ‘unified’ Europe, for whom the initial idea was to connect the reduction in enmities in the wake of war among its peoples, by opening up the prospects of prosperity and synergy.

Obviously, this is the logic of a fanatical economic liberalism, the same fanaticism that was enshrined by the latest generation of treaties: to transform the comparative advantages into the development of inequalities and finally into relationships of domination. Certain analysts on the radical left – spurred on by the history of relations between the planet’s ‘North’ and ‘South’ – see this as an already advanced colonial relationship within the borders of the European continent, including in the form of the Mediterranean region’s ‘specialization in tourism’ and the offer of educated workforces to the northern regions.

From this perspective, France ­(in industrial decline and with a high and unfaltering unemployment rate) would hold an intermediary position, one that is very hard to manage despite its size, and the new member states of Mitteleuropa (having gone through the trial of ‘real socialism’ and converted to the most intransigent market ideology) would specialize in outsourcing to the profit of the dominant region. 

This thesis is a simplified one, especially because it tends not to take into account the social and territorial inequalities that are common internally to every ‘region’ and country – inequalities amplified by neoliberal logic. However, the formulation has the benefit of drawing our attention to both the structuraland virtually hostile character of the polarizations taking place.  For us, a more immediate and concrete consideration should be added, one more closely linked to context: southern Europe (primarily Greece and Italy) is not simply in the process of reproducing forms of dependence and domination at its core, reproductions analogous to colonization (in some ways ‘constructive’ and in others ‘deconstructive’). It is also in organic relations with a new and increasingly unsettled and unsettling ‘South’ (through the intermediary of the Mediterranean space to which it belongs as much as to continental Europe), one that will be impossible to contain behind walls or border operations. Of course, by a new ‘South’ we mean the poverty- and refuge- driven migrations, threatened by civil wars and backlashes from western interventions (whose consequences were never calculated by those who initiated them). 

Our line of argument is clear: if it is illusory to believe that we could be following – or maintaining – ‘European construction’ through such polarization and conflicts of interests (which are increasingly amplified across Europe), it is even more illusory to believe that Europe would be able to exist as a political body which can ‘neutralize’ and ‘hide’ the flows linked to globalization that both stem from and end within. 

What is confirmed for the IMF intervention – an organism that is primarily charged with restructuring economies affected by currency collapse – in the regulation of a budgetary dispute between the members of the euro zone, also holds with regard to migratory flows and new conflicts in the ‘margins’ of Europe. An increasingly divided Europe is also not completely contained ‘within Europe’.  Before disappearing from the scene, Mr Juncker had the time to let out a cry of anger against the ‘egoism’ of the European states who refuse to ‘share’ the burden of refugees: why did he not push clear-sightedness to its conclusion, denouncing the aberration – which consists of dunking Greece’s head underwater –  one of the two states who are facing their arrival on a daily basis? It will be too late after that to build walls in the heart of the Balkans or on the shores of the Danube… 

In the absence of European democracy, state populism

The third is clearly the democratic problem, highlighted in all its severity by the monstrous product of July 13, 2015 – hence the problem of legitimacy of powers in Europe. Time and time again, everyone has repeated it. But it should be approached with all its components and in its current state – moving away from only talking about the formal aspects of the institutional crisis, no matter how important these aspects may be. At least in appearance, the most serious of the arguments invoked before (and a fortiori after) the referendum of July 5 by the European governments in their effort to disqualify the Greek government’s demands for negotiation (over debt, economy, and the future of the country in the European construction) was as follows: the needs of one people or one EU member state (or one member of the Eurozone) cannot outweigh the needs of 18 others (needs which are expressed by their respective governments, basing their legitimacy on regular elections).

This is likely to mirror a ‘communication component’ created in Brussels and repeated in satiety by journal correspondents who are near the Commission (Le Monde and Liberation in France in particular).  It contains the idea that a ‘part’ cannot decide for the ‘whole’ (any more, it should be said, than ‘the whole’ can impose on one ‘part’ the sacrifice of its own existence, except in a totalitarian regime). However, this only applies if, independent of the detail of representative procedures, a contradictory discussion occurred in which the ‘people’ – in the democratic sense of the term (the ensemble of citizens who are to be represented and affected by the final decision) – took part. 

The European techno-structure and the political classes of different countries (who enviously protect their monopoly of ‘mediation’ between the national level and the European level) do not even want to hear it spoken of.  We were still very far from it when certain countries opened referendums in 2005 about the ‘European constitution’ project, even though there were some real moments of discussion and collective participation. But the negative votes obtained in France and in the Netherlands (whatever the complexity of their interpretation might be) were quickly used to disqualify even the idea of popular consultation and to annul their results: conduct which had a massive effect on the disaggregation of civic spirit in Europe and which to some extent explains the violence of the reactions produced by the Greek referendum of July 5. 

A spectre is haunting Europe; the voice of the people – the power of the people, even.  But since the rise in democratic demands goes hand in hand with the growing unease – and in some ways the anger – which is produced by the shifting of political decisions from the nation-state towards supranational institutions and the obscure organisms which are subject to no popular-control whatsoever, a ‘compensation’ package has been put into practice, a package which has disastrous effects in the short term and terribly worrying effects for the future. 

By making the most of the fact that a large part of the dubious sovereign debts were bought up by ‘public’ European organisms, the idea that they are incessantly ‘paying for the Greeks’ (who would do nothing but squander the money that is ‘given’ to them, when in fact most of this money is spent on paying back the interests from previous loans) has been hammered into the minds of the taxpayers of the different neighbouring countries, in addition to the idea that they personally will ‘lose’ considerable sums of money if the Greeks default without offering security (while these losses are virtual sums whose actual impact on the finances of each country depends entirely on the economic context). 

The implementation of this state propaganda which is taking hold of public opinion, generates a populism, or rather an extremism ‘of the centre’ (to employ the expression used by sociologist Ulrich Bielefeld) that is particularly forceful in Germany, but also in France and in the Netherlands, and institutionalized in countries like Finland where its convergence with xenophobia can clearly be seen.  As a result, the economic crisis develops as a gap in representation which is linked to the fact that there is absolutely no institutional possibility for European citizens – whether as individuals, or as territories, or indeed as local, national or transnational communities – to actually control the decisions which are taken in their name (the European parliament being no more than an empty shell, a shell that played no role whatsoever in the examination of the Greek default and its wider consequences, except for the provocative and contemptuous declarations made by its president Mr. Schulz). 

But the crisis is also increasingly taking the form of the revenge of aggressive nationalism (anti-Greek, anti-German) and xenophobia, at once against internal ‘minorities’ and against external competitors, and joining with the development of organized forces, collective passions and anti-political and anti-European discourse.

It is the governments themselves who are the instigators of this massive populism (rarely described as such) and so are the parties forming the ‘great coalition’ of conservatives and social-democrats holding political power in Europe today, in close collaboration with technocracy and finance. But it is the movements of neo-fascists who – to varying degrees – are preparing to do well from the situation and who are already making the most of it by making their presence felt in the daily life of each country.  We have already gone far enough in this direction, whether under the cover of the protection of ‘national identity’ or of the need for ‘defence’ against migrants and minorities.

The ‘democratic invention’ (to echo Claude Lefort) which Europe needs today must happen both in the form of an institutional creation – instituting the principles of representation and deliberation completely missing in all echelons of real power – and in the form of an active citizenship, that is to say a mobilization of the mass of citizens (which one might call ‘counter-populism’) on all fronts which require transnational responsibility (from the freedom of information to the environment, not forgetting workers’ rights, the mobilization of unstable and unemployed migrants, and the fight against corruption and tax evasion).

It is no exaggeration to say that Syriza, before and after its rise to power and in the same way as other European movements (Indignados, Podemos), succeeded in awakening great hopes amongst the most advanced faction of the European left, because it was moving precisely in that direction:  this, without doubt, is no stranger to the obstinacy with which it was attacked with the result that we can see. This is why, in tentative conclusion on this analysis of the diktat of Brussels and its consequences, we arrive – with the prudence that is appropriate when we are speaking from the exterior of a country or of a movement – at some hypotheses and some reflections on the achievements of the Greek left (as well as on the critical situation in which it currently finds itself).

Syriza’s strategic dilemma

The Greek parliament has just adopted the Brussels Memorandum in the prescribed terms (the sine qua non condition for primary rescue funds to be unblocked and banks reopened). The acceptance came as a clear majority, the old parties of government voted in favor but with a strong minority opposition that included about thirty Syriza MPs (after the central committee of the party itself rejected the agreement by a small majority). Tsipras, the prime minister declared (with a phrase that has spread worldwide): he ‘didn’t believe’ in the economic virtues of the Brussels plan, but he had to accept it in order to avoid ‘disaster’ both for Greece and Europe. He thus took responsibility, and he demanded solidarity. Strikes and demonstrations are taking place. What is the lesson to learn from these latest developments? What conclusions can we draw on the immediate future and on the long-term consequences?

The first observation is that the discussion on the value and the terms of the Brussels ‘package’ has begun even before its implementation. This is true in Greece, clearly, but also abroad ­– including within public opinion and in the press organs that ask themselves the question of whether, in going ‘too far’, Germany and the EU have not actually sapped the conditions of their authority. If the answer turns out to be yes, it would mean that the ‘question of trust’ has switched sides… But for this, we will have to wait and see how the implementation takes shape. Once the shock of the new austerity measures has been absorbed by Greek society if it is able to survive them (the first major uncertainty), Tsipras’s government – for its part and if it stays in power (second uncertainty) – promises: an obstinate fight to exploit each trace of and every possibility for autonomy left in the signed documents (a good example being the management of the ‘guarantee funds’ which unify Greek assets); a systematic resistance to the idea that the most impoverished social categories should bear the brunt of the charges, notably the fiscal ones; a renewed offensive against corruption; and a renewed insistence on the question of the structural causes of debt.  None of these will happen without a fight (not long ago we would have said ‘without a class war’…), but all this might shake things up.

Paradoxically, the main ‘external’ support at Tsipras’s disposal in this combat currently comes in the form of statements from the IMF. This is because the IMF is refusing to play the role that Brussels assigned to it, publicizing its radically pessimistic analysis of the ‘supportability’ of the Greek debt, and by calling on Europe to do more to reduce it. It would be difficult to underestimate the importance of this statement of position, in view of its timing.  It signifies that the IMF – recently involved in the attempts to align Greek dependence with the norms of the ‘Third World’ (as in the Argentinian case) – might create internal contradictions in the system by acting as a ‘reverse mediator’. This corresponds to a balancing of the relationship between international financial interests and intra-European political objectives. One might think (or hope) that this marks the creeping beginnings of ‘renegotiation’, even if in the short term it induces all the governments in the Eurogroup to harden their pressure for the ‘fulfilment of the commitments made’. Mr. Schäuble, on his part, never forgetting to play both cards, has seized the occasion to relaunch the idea of a ‘temporary Grexit’.

The second element in the strategic dilemma, more important still, concerns Greece’s interior situation (social, moral, political). Greek society is rich in solidarities that have been defended and used against the barrage of impoverishment and hopelessness over the last months and years. But it is exhausted, and it is divided along lines of class and ideology that could shift at any time, perhaps brutally. This depends on the course of events, but also very much on the way in which governmental action is perceived: as ‘treason’ or as ‘resistance’. In our eyes, it is crucial that Tsipras (just yesterday in his speech at the Vouli and in his letter to the MPs of Syriza) perseveres in his resolution to ‘speak truth’ about the constraints, the perspectives and intentions of his government – by adopting a typically parrhesiastic posture, in the tradition of Greek democracy. It is no less crucial that, under the pressure of great tensions (which could triumph tomorrow), the unity of Syriza on ‘the verge of ruin’ is still resisting. But Tsipras was forced to make changes in his government and to call risky elections in the near future. Let us try to make the conditions of Syriza’s extremely fragile balance more clear.

The first point in question is whether or not Tsipras was right to call the referendum when he did and how he did, taking the double risk of ‘provoking’ the anger of the European powers who wanted to continue to maneuver behind closed doors, and also of producing the immense disillusionment and anger of the people (in particular the young people), people brutally confronted with overwhelming exterior forces and a mockery of democracy. 

On balance, we think that he was, for the reason that – using Chantal Mouffe’s terms that were reused by Ulrike Guerot in Die Zeit – the referendum has traversed the occult ‘governance’, and generated a real ‘return of politics’ in the European crisis that is irreversible in some ways. Questions over the interests and of the voice of the people – notwithstanding those over the publicity of decisions that concern common interest – were clearly raised. Better still, an ideological confrontation took place: the dominant camp of Greece’s rivals (Schäuble, Juncker, Dijsselbloem…) claimed that the aim of the ‘no’ at the referendum was to exit the euro, whilst Tsipras maintained that his mandate, and the proposition which he was submitting to vote, was both to remain in the eurozone and to refuse austerity measures – a demand for a new Europe therefore. Our feeling is that he won the battle on the question of principle, even if he lost the war that ensued due to a crippling combination of forces. 

This immediately takes us to a second question: was Tsipras right to speak of an imminent ‘disaster’ in the face of which the only responsible attitude was to fold without actually collapsing in principle? On this point, the response seems to us to be even more clearly in the affirmative. On one side, the collapse of public finances in Greece and the impossibility of financing economic and daily life was an inescapable reality (whose dark perspectives were highlighted again in the IMF’s report), and in this sense the ‘terrorist’ blackmail worked well. Whilst on the other side, the perspectives for the positive (and even conquering) use of the ‘Grexit’ – being flagged up by the ‘Marxist wing’ of Syriza’s representatives as well as by theorists from both the extreme left and the extreme right – never even had an outside chance of success. If they were not simply expressing fundamental opposition to the idea of the European construction, they were based on an archaic conception of the autonomy of (small) nations in a globalized economy; on inapplicable and authoritarian conceptions of the ‘control’ of monetary politics and of the circulation of capital (a kind of modernization of ‘war communism’); and on a profound lack of consciousness regarding the impact of savage devaluation and competitiveness-at-all-costs on the lives of the working classes. It is true that some might reply that austerity is already insupportable and only promises to worsen, but this brings us back to a former problem: the problem of applying (or not) the terms of the agreement. In any event, the politics of making things worse makes no sense.

The unity of Syriza – as a ‘governmental’ party and above all as a movement – seems to us to be both the most difficult and the most decisive element. It is the most difficult because the rifts are very real, and also because unity cannot be decreed – it depends on social conditions as much as on a political willingness. It is the most decisive because at the present time there is a maximum push from the European ‘centre’ to create a rupture. The German press (Suddeutsche Zeitung) speaks profusely of Syriza’s ‘schizophrenia’ – they want both to uphold their criticisms of the agreement and also to stay in power in order to put it into practice on their own terms. It orders Tsipras to ‘clarify’ his intentions by ‘shedding’ the leftists that surround him, continuing the narrative about ‘lack of trust’ in the process. And the Greek parties once  disqualified by their past politics, who ‘supported’ him in parliament, are lying in wait to replace Tsipras. The ‘rebellion’ of Syriza’s MPs who voted against the agreement seems to us to be absolutely legitimate, and to belong to the democratic experience propelled at the heart of the crisis. But it ought not, without fatal risks, to play into the hands of the adversaries. Besides, the rebellion is not ideologically uniform because only one part of the opponents is motivated by a fundamental hostility to the European construction; others (including such leading figures as Varoufakis and Zoe Konstantopoulou) always demonstrated their engagement in the combat for a ‘new Greece’ leading to a ‘new Europe’ in both words and in deeds. 

If Syriza’s unity holds in spite of the internal tensions (which mirror the same conflicts in the bosom of the Greek people and of public opinion), the government will itself be able to hold on, to resist against pressure from the right and from the extreme right, and so the dialectic of application and of resistance will be able to launch itself. If this unity does not hold, we are entering the unknown, and will bid farewell to the hope that this movement has awakened in Greece and in Europe (and even beyond).  The reader understands where our hopes lie, though they are based on nothing certain. 

‘Long March’ for Europe: our solidarities

In his speech in the Vouli, Tsipras clearly said: the solution that we had to choose was not the best one; it was simply the least disastrous. And he specified: for Greece but also for Europe. It is a consistent position which he has defended since his rise to power, and notably at the moment of the referendum: ‘our mandate is not the exit from Europe’, that the vast majority of the Greek population do not want. Implicitly, our mandate is to fight without respite for the emergence of a new Europe, a Europe in which Greece – free from its oligarchical privileges and from the corruption that was encouraged by the creditors themselves – will have its rightful position and might even serve as a model for others. This was the theme of the article published in May 2015 in Le Monde: ‘Europe is at a crossroads’ (31.05.2015). This unwavering commitment does us a great service, creating responsibilities – if not obligations – for us as well.  

It now appears that the European alternative to the neoliberal construction of Europe stemming from Maastricht – with its destructive effects and its insurmountable contradictions – at least presents itself as a much more difficult task, strewn with many more obstacles than many among us would have believed possible. Europe has undertaken a long journey to rise ‘from the top’ or ‘from the bottom’ out of its constitutional crisis, to invent the conditions of its citizenship, to assemble the forces of its cultural renewal. Greece is, and will be, at the heart of the clashes and the challenges. By testifying our unfaltering support to Greece, down to the daily necessities, based on the appreciation (and free criticism) of the vicissitudes that it is going through, it is ourselves that we will be helping. We must find the forms of this solidarity and make them effective. We must also remember the thing that placed Syriza in the situation in which it finds itself today, that which contributed to the imbalancing of forces and that which facilitated the diktat: it is, to a great extent, the insufficiency of this solidarity (or the ineffectiveness of this solidarity – which amounts to the same thing).

The efforts of the Greeks to keep the extraordinary democratic power alive that was demonstrated in the popular gatherings of Syntagma and in the referendum campaign – and in order to find new points for its application – should be responded to by connecting to it our own capacity to organize movements and campaigns that help to garner support for its cause amongst public opinion (or that in the end converge with it).

These movements and campaigns must be without exclusions, emphasizing internal discussion and therefore embodying the renewal of politics without which there can be no ‘constituent moment’ in Europe. They must cross borders – protecting themselves at all costs from nationalism and ‘populist’ emulation with such nationalist anti-European currents that are clearly on the rise (like the French National Front) – even when it might seem that the denunciation of the same ‘ills’ (technocracy, elitist corruption, disdain for the people, fiscal pressure) might produce a common ground for a parallel rhetoric.

What exactly could be better for this new intra-European internationalism than to find itself gathering in Athens, on the side of the Greek people? But we would like to add that it exists also in Germany, at the heart of what appears to be the ‘fortress’ of neo-capitalism and which is in fact itself filled with contradictions and rich in alternative possibilities; in Spain, alongside Podemos – burdened now with the task of thinking up a new challenge to the system; in France, where social-democracy is converting itself into ‘republican’ patriotism, ‘competitive destruction’ and the commercialization of its culture; in Italy, where the battle against the ‘fortification’ and the ‘militarisation’ of European borders is taking place and where struggles and resistance within and against the crisis continue to be strong, although politically dispersed; in England, where the debate for or against isolationism is about to take place (against a background of the privatization of all of its social services)…

Finally and above all, we need mottoes around which the solidarities – the convergent objectives for democratic renovation and resistance to austerity – from the different regions of the continent can be clearly seen. The audit of the debt undertaken by the Greek parliament is in itself an example – by thereafter giving substance to the idea of a new economy and of a new monetary politics, like those proposed by movements like ATTAC. The invention of new forms of labour organization and struggle, able to cope with the new nature of financialized capitalism, as well as of new social rights and welfare systems, follow from there. Resistance to security politics; the defense of the freedom ofcirculation and information is another objective. And these are not the only ones.

As Alexis Tsipras wrote in 2015: there are two roads opening for Europe. As difficult as it may be to oppose dominant policies, we believe that the choice is always there, more vital than ever. The opportunities must be created. This will take the time that it needs. But it need not wait. 

 

Thanks go to Asher Korner for preparing this translation for openDemocracy from the French.


Posted by NJ원시

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정책비교/국제정치2015. 7. 5. 12:39

1. 그리스 정부 부채 문제를 해결하는데 있어서, 독일 메르켈과 쇼이블레의 태도 문제점

메르켈 입장을 요약하면 다음과 같다.


"그리스 정부가 모든 것을 잘못했다. 그래서 쇼이블레를 비롯해서 트로이카가 그리스 잘못을 고쳐놓겠다는 태도이다. 이러한 접근 방식은 너무 일방적인 승리만을 외치는 꼴이다."


2. (해설) 트로이카가 그리스 정부 부채를 해결하기 위해 빌려 준 돈의 대부분은 유럽 은행 손으로 들어갔다. 그리스 국민들의 삶을 개선시키거나, 경제 성장에 실질적으로 도움이 되지 못했다. 결국 트로이카가 그리스 정부가 재정 흑자를 달성하라고 한 목표는 실패했다. 왜냐하면 그리스 경제는 트로이카의 ‘긴축 통치’ 때문에 경기 침체에 빠졌고, 실업율은 더욱더 증가하게 되자, 국민 소득은 감소하게 되고, 이는 정부 세수입 증가를 가로막았기 때문이다.


(Gysi) " 트로이카가 지금까지 그리스에 빌려준 돈의 90%, 즉 2400억 유로는 그리스 민간 은행들의 부도를 막는데 사용되었다. 그런데 그리스 은행 채권자들은 독일계 프랑스계 은행이기 때문에, 트로이카의 대부 돈은 결과적으로 이들 채권자들의 손으로 다시 들어간 셈이다. " "그리스 경제는 <2010년 메모랜덤> 체결 이후, 오히려 더 악화되었다“ ”트로이카는 그리스 경제 악화 책임을 져야 한다.“


3. 좌파당 원내 총무, 그렉고르 기지는 독일 사민당 가브리엘의 이중 잣대를 비판하다.


기지 연설문

“독일 사민당 (SPD) 가브리엘 비판 :

기억력이 짧다. 2011년 독일 사민당의 자매 정당인 그리스 범사회주의운동 PASOK

게오르게 파판드레우 총리가 긴축통치안에 반대해 이를 국민투표에 부치려고 했다. 보수파 ND가 반대했기 때문이다. 베를린과 IMF가 난리법석을 피워서 파판드레우를 굴종시켰다. 돈 줄을 쥐고 목을 죈 것이다. 결국 파판드레우는 트로이카 요구에 굴복했고, 국민투표도 부치지 못했다. 파판드레우 정부는 무너졌다.


그 당시 마틴 슐츠 Martin Schulz 현 유럽의회 의장이 뭐라고 했나? 그리스 정부가 당시 취할 수 있는 선택지가 거의 없기 때문에, 파판드레우의 국민투표 제안을 이해한다고 했지 않은가? 당시 가브리엘 Gabriel 당신도 그리스의 국민투표 실시를 지지한다고 발표했지 않는가? 이러한 당신의 선택은 전형적인 내로남불 (내가하면 로맨스 남이하면 불륜이다)이 아닌가? 독일 사민당의 자매 정당인 그리스 파속(PASOK)이 국민투표를 실시하면 지지하고, 그리스 시리자 정부가 국민투표하자고 하면 반대하는 것을 보니. 아니면 가브리엘 당신의 심경이 변화했다는 것인가? 당시는 국회 본회의 의자에 앉아 있었고, 지금은 집권당 의자에 앉아 있어서 그런가? “


4. 그리스 시리자 주도 연립정부는 1월 25일 총선 공약인 ‘긴축 통치 종식’을 실천할 권리가 있다.


“ 독일에서는 총선 공약을 지키지 않을 수 있지만, 그리스에서는 (시리자 정부의) 총선 공약을 어길 수 없지 않은가 ?”

“ (메르켈과 사민당 가브리엘의 입장은) 결과적으로 긴축통치 종식을 약속하고, 그리스 유권자들의 지지를 통해 당선된 시리자 정부에 대한 불인정이다. 이는 민주주의와 민주적 선거에 대한 공격이다.”


5. 유로가 실패하면, 독일 역시 800억 유로를 손실당한다.


“유로가 실패하면, 독일 손실액 800억 유로, 이는 그리스 채무 총액의 27%에 해당한다. 이는 독일 국민 세금으로 감당해야 한다. ”


6. 그리스 채무 문제 해결법은 ‘경제 논리’가 아닌 ‘정치와 민주주의 논리’여야 한다.

“ 핵심 문제는, 메르켈 당신이 말한대로, 빚 그 자체나 돈 문제가 아니라, 권력과 민주주의 문제이다. 이것은 또한 조세프 스티글리츠 주장이기도 하다.

그리스 주권, 유로존의 구성원, 북대서양방위조약 NATO 회원국, UN 회원국으로서 그리스가 최소한 확보해야 하는 정치적 권리라는 것이다.“


7. 독일 메르켈과 가브리엘의 이중잣대를 비판하다. 독일 역시 정부 재정 적자 기준을 초과한 사례가 있다.

“ 11년 전 독일도 정부 채무 규모 (녹적: 사민당-녹색당 연립정부)는 마스트리히트 조약에 제시된 기준을 초과했다. 독일 뿐만 아니라 프랑스도 초과했다.그런데 지금 그리스 정부 재정 적자만을 징벌하고 있다. 이게 공평한가? ”


8. 독일 메르켈 총리와 재무장관 쇼이블레의 목표는 그리스 좌파 정부인 시리자의 타도인가?

“19개 유로존 국가들 중에서 메르켈에 따르면, 18개 국가가 그리스 시리자 정부의 긴축통치 종식 정책을 반대한다. 그래서 4억 유로를 지급하지 않았다. 이것으로 보아, 메르켈의 목표는 그리스에서 좌파 정부를 좌절시키는 것이다.”


9. 그리스 유로존 탈퇴의 악영향은 아무도 예측할 수 없고, 그 파국의 타격은 상상 이상으로 클 수도 있다.


“ 그렉시트는 다음과 같은 몇가지 이유들 때문에 파국적이다. 그리스 뿐만 아니라 다른 나라들도 유로존을 탈퇴할 수 있는 연쇄 반응이 있을 것이다. 우리 모두는 정말 영리하게 행동해야 한다...... 그리스 유로 탈퇴가 가져올 결과들을 우리는 지금 추측할 수 없다.

그리스 뿐만 아니라 다른 나라들도 도미노 현상으로 유로를 탈퇴할 수도 있다.

자국 화폐를 사용하면, 무역 전쟁은 일어날 수 있다."


10. 독일 메르켈과 쇼이블레는, 독일도 원하지 않는 것을 그리스에게 요구하지 말라.


기지 연설 “ 만약 트로이카가 독일에게 연금을 30% 감소하라고 한다면 그것을 들어주겠는가? 자기가 하지도 않을 일을 왜 남에게 하라고 강요하는가? ”


11. 독일 메르켈은 유럽의 민주주의 정신을 훼손하지 말고, 그리스 시리자 정부를 인정하고 협상과 대화에 나서야 한다.


“메르켈과 쇼이블레는 정치적 책임감을 가져달라. 유럽의 정신의 수호자가 되어야지 파괴자가 되어서는 안된다. 나 역시 우파인 당신들 (쇼이블레와 메르켈)이 그리스 좌파 시리자 정부를 좋아하지 않는다는 것을 안다. 나 역시 다른 나라에서 우파 정부가 들어서는 것을 좋아하지 않는다. 하지만 만약 내가 그들과 협상을 해야 한다면 그렇게 할 것이다. 그리스에서 좌파인 시리자가 집권을 한 것은 그 시리자가 정치를 잘 했기 때문이다. 나 역시 만약 다른 나라에서 우파가 집권을 했다면, 그들이 그 나라에서 정치를 잘 했다고 말할 것이다.”


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출처: 7월 1일. 2015. http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2015/07/01/sehr-starke-rede-zur-griechen-tragoede-gysi-entzaubert-die-selbstgefaellige-kanzlerin/

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Gregor Gysi hat im Bundestag eine fulminante Rede gehalten. Er hat Angela Merkel, Wolfgang Schäuble und Sigmar Gabriel vorgeworfen, die griechische Bevölkerung einer gewaltigen sozialen Verwüstung auszusetzen, nur, um die ihnen nicht genehme Syriza-Regierung zu stürzen. Gysi kritisierte völlig zu Recht, dass es unangemessen sei, dass Angela Merkel keine Silbe der Selbstkritik hervorgebracht hat.

Die Rede von Gregor Gysi im Wortlaut:

„Herr Präsident! Meine Damen und Herren! Die europäische Einigung war eine Lehre, die aus dem Verhängnis des Zweiten Weltkrieges und der deutschen Nazidiktatur gezogen wurde. Man wollte Europa einigen, auch Deutschland einbinden, und das Ganze sollte zu Frieden, Demokratie, sozialer Wohlfahrt, wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung und später auch ökologischer Nachhaltigkeit führen. Das sind die gemeinsamen Grundwerte, für die dieses Europa stehen sollte.

Aber Europa wurde zutiefst erschüttert schon früher, aber erst recht durch die Finanz- und Bankenkrise vor sieben Jahren und hat sich bis heute nicht erholt. Aus der Bankenkrise wurde eine Staatsschuldenkrise, von Griechenland bis Deutschland, weil Privatbanken in Europa mit Steuergeldern in Milliardenhöhe gestützt wurden. Die Rettungspakete galten nie den Bürgerinnen und Bürgern, sondern immer den Banken.

Auch bei uns wurden 480 Milliarden Euro binnen einer Woche für die Rettung der Banken beschlossen. Wenn man mal 1 Million Euro für einen kulturellen oder sozialen Zweck braucht, dann bekommt man ein Nein, aber bei den Banken gibt es immer nur ein Ja.

Ich habe Ihnen zugehört, Frau Bundeskanzlerin. Ihre Rede kann ich wie folgt zusammenfassen: Die griechische Regierung hat alles falsch gemacht, und Sie, Herr Schäuble und die europäischen Institutionen, also der Internationale Währungsfonds, die Europäische Kommission und die Europäische Zentralbank, haben alles richtig gemacht.

Ich bin auch nicht unkritisch gegenüber der griechischen Regierung, aber die Art, wie Sie sich beweihräuchern, ist einseitig und völlig daneben.

Die drei von mir genannten Institutionen haben, wie bereits gesagt, 90 Prozent der Hilfsgelder in Höhe von über 240 Milliarden Euro in die Rettung der griechischen Privatbanken gesteckt. Dieses Geld kam den Gläubigern zugute. Gläubiger dieser Privatbanken waren übrigens auch deutsche und vor allem französische Banken. Dort ist das Geld hingeflossen. Warum konnte man die griechischen Banken nicht einfach pleitegehen lassen. Dann hätten die Großgläubiger und Großaktionäre eben zahlen müssen, weil sie sich einfach verzockt haben, und man hätte den Bürgerinnen und Bürgern und den kleinen und mittelständischen Unternehmen ihre Guthaben erstatten können. Das hätte man machen können. Das wäre ein vernünftiger Weg gewesen.

Aber Sie sind einen anderen Weg gegangen. Für diesen anderen Weg haben Sie Bedingungen festgelegt für Griechenland, für Spanien, für Portugal, für Irland und für Zypern. Die Bevölkerungen dieser Länder mussten das bezahlen. Der Preis war hoch, und zwar überall; aber besonders dramatisch war es in Griechenland.

Ich sage es Ihnen noch einmal – seit sechs Jahren haben wir die Krise in Griechenland-: Rückgang der Wirtschaftsleistung, die angeblich angekurbelt werden sollte, um 25 Prozent; Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit auf 25 Prozent, Anstieg der Jugendarbeitslosigkeit auf über 50 Prozent; Zusammenbruch des Gesundheitssystems; Kürzungen der Renten um 40 Prozent, Senkungen der Löhne um 30 Prozent; Suppenküchen über Suppenküchen. Und das genügt Ihnen nicht? Es muss noch weiter runtergehen? Das ist Ihre Vorstellung von Europa? Frau Merkel, Herr Gabriel und Herr Schäuble, ich finde, das ist ein Skandal, und Sie tragen daran eine gewaltige Mitschuld.

Außerdem ist die Staatsschuldenquote von 127 Prozent vor Ausbruch der Krise auf jetzt knapp 180 Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung gestiegen. Jeder fragt sich: Wie soll das eigentlich je zurückgezahlt werden? Der Kurs der Kürzungspolitik von Troika und Bundesregierung ist einfach gescheitert.

Die Ergebnisse, die Sie versprochen haben mehr Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und was weiß ich , sind nicht eingetreten.

Ja, ja, wir haben hier eine Arbeitsteilung; das kann ich Ihnen sagen. Ich frage Sie einmal, wann diese drei europäischen Institutionen endlich einmal die Verantwortung für das übernehmen, was sie anrichten.

Wissen Sie, das Ganze ist so organisiert: Für die verfehlte Politik werden die nationalen Regierungen zur Verantwortung gezogen, gegebenenfalls auch von den Wählerinnen und Wählern abgestraft, während die eigentlich Verantwortlichen in der Europäischen Kommission, im Internationalen Währungsfonds und in der Europäischen Zentralbank, die nicht demokratisch legitimiert sind, ungestraft davonkommen. Das kann so nicht bleiben. Wenn man Europa will, muss man auch ein verantwortliches Europa wollen.

Nun hat sich die Situation dramatisch zugespitzt das stimmt : Erstmals in der Geschichte ist eine Kreditrückzahlung an den IWF ausgesetzt worden. Die griechische Regierung und das griechische Parlament haben für den 5. Juli 2015 ein Referendum über die Zustimmung oder Ablehnung des jüngsten, ultimativen Spardiktats beschlossen und nicht, wie Sie, Herr Gabriel, es fälschlicherweise behaupten, über den Verbleib im Euro-Raum. Niemand darf nach geltendem Recht ein Land aus dem Euro werfen.

Es gibt allerdings die Gefahr des Staatsbankrotts und natürlich die Gefahr des Austritts Griechenlands aus dem Euro-Raum. Diese Gefahr besteht.

Herr Gabriel, Sie haben ein kurzes Gedächtnis: Anfang September 2011 wollte die Regierung Ihrer Schwesterpartei, der Pasok, unter dem damaligen Chef Papandreou wegen der Sparpolitik, die aus Europa kam, ein Referendum durchführen, und zwar, weil die Konservativen nicht zustimmen wollten. In Berlin und beim IWF war man fassungslos. Man drohte Griechenland mit einer ungeordneten Insolvenz.

Der IWF drohte sogar mit einem Zahlungsstopp. Papandreou wurde gestürzt, das Referendum durfte nicht stattfinden, und die Schwesterpartei der Union, die Nea Dimokratia, bot sich willfährig an, die drastische Kürzungspolitik umzusetzen. Nachher haben es Nea Dimokratia und Pasok zusammen gemacht. Aber wie reagierte damals die SPD auf den Entschluss Papandreous? Martin Schulz, heute Präsident des Europäischen Parlaments, erklärte, dass er großes Verständnis für das Referendum habe, der Regierung bleibe gar nichts anderes übrig. Sie, Herr Gabriel, erklärten ebenfalls, dass Sie das Referendum befürworten. Wissen Sie, was ich mich frage: Wieso gilt Ihrer Meinung nach etwas für Pasok, aber nicht für Syriza?

Oder ist Ihr neuer Sitzplatz der Grund für den Sinneswandel? Damals saßen Sie dort unten, im Plenum, und jetzt sitzen Sie dort oben, auf der Regierungsbank. Wenn es an dem anderen Sitzplatz liegt, ist Ihre Politik höchst unglaubwürdig.

Es gibt jetzt Kritik an dem Zeitpunkt der Entscheidung für das Referendum. Zum Zeitpunkt muss ich aber Folgendes sagen: Tsipras, die griechische Regierung und das griechische Parlament können nicht irgendein Zwischenergebnis der Verhandlungen zur Abstimmung stellen, sondern nur ein Ultimatum. Da kann man sagen: Sollen wir das annehmen oder nicht annehmen? Deshalb ist der Zeitpunkt richtig gewählt. Aus der Sicht der griechischen Regierung ist er, wenn Sie so wollen, gar nicht klug. Die Banken sind geschlossen. Die Leute stehen an. Man weiß gar nicht, wie sich die Stimmung bis Sonntag noch verändert. Aber es blieb ihnen erst einmal nichts anderes übrig.

Ich will Ihnen das erklären, damit Sie es verstehen; versuchen Sie es doch einmal. – Sie dürfen eines nicht vergessen: Wenn er zu dem Ultimatum Ja gesagt hätte, dann hätte er seiner Bevölkerung sagen müssen: Ich breche alle Wahlversprechen. Das mag ja in Deutschland Mode sein, aber in Griechenland nicht, um es einmal ganz klar zu sagen.

Für die Beendigung der Austeritätspolitik hat doch Syriza bei der Wahl so viele Stimmen bekommen. Wenn Sie der griechischen Bevölkerung sagen: „Ihr könnt wählen, was ihr wollt, wir sorgen dafür, dass immer die gleiche Politik fortgesetzt wird“, dann ist das ein Angriff auf die Demokratie und auf demokratische Wahlen.

Herr Gabriel, wenn Sie davon sprechen, dass die deutschen Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmer nicht für die aus Ihrer Sicht falsche Politik der griechischen Regierung bezahlen dürfen, ist das auch völlig daneben. Wo bleibt eigentlich die Solidarität der SPD mit dem griechischen Volk, aber auch mit unseren Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmern?

Ich sage Ihnen: Wenn der Euro scheitert, dann kostet uns das sehr viel Geld. Wenn eine Staatspleite Griechenlands kommt, haften wir dank Ihrer Unterschrift – wir waren ja dagegen, aber Sie haben die Bürgschaften unterschrieben – mit 27 Prozent für die Schulden Griechenlands. Das macht über 80 Milliarden Euro. Es kann ja sein, Herr Schäuble, wie Sie richtig sagen, dass dies nicht sofort fällig wird, sondern nach und nach. Das ist ganz egal. Bezahlen müssen wir es. Das müssen Sie den deutschen Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmern einmal sagen. Wir wollen sie davon nämlich befreien.

Aber Sie mussten sich ja von der Kanzlerin belehren lassen, dass solche Äußerungen völlig kontraproduktiv seien. Die Tatsache, dass die Kanzlerin Sie korrigiert, spricht ja nun auch für sich.

Die Kernfrage – da haben Sie Recht, Frau Bundeskanzlerin – ist nicht die Frage der Schulden und auch nicht die Frage des Geldes, sondern es geht um Macht und Demokratie.

Das hat der amerikanische Wirtschaftsnobelpreisträger Joseph Stiglitz auf den Punkt gebracht. Es geht um die Souveränität eines Landes, das Mitglied der Euro-Zone, Mitglied der Europäischen Union, Mitglied der NATO und Mitglied der Organisation der Vereinten Nationen ist. Übrigens sollten auch die Verteidigungsausgaben gekürzt werden. Das war ja interessant. Es gab einen Vorschlag der griechischen Regierung. Dann hat die Troika mehr vorgeschlagen. Was sagt jetzt Herr Stoltenberg, Generalsekretär der NATO? Das käme überhaupt nicht infrage. Alle NATO-Staaten müssten die Ausgaben erhöhen, auch Griechenland, und dürften sie nicht senken.

Mich würde interessieren, was denn nun gilt.

Die ganzen bisherigen Auflagendiktate haben schwer in die Innenpolitik der betroffenen Länder eingegriffen. In Portugal und jetzt in Griechenland haben die dortigen Verfassungsgerichte Auflagen gestoppt, weil sie gegen die dortigen Verfassungen verstießen. Selbst um Verfassungen also scheren sich die demokratisch durch niemanden legitimierten Vertreter der Troika nicht.

Frau Bundeskanzlerin, Sie haben gesagt, Europa basiere auf dem Recht, und das Recht müsse eingehalten werden, und haben der griechischen Regierung vorgeworfen, das Recht zu verletzen. Darf ich daran erinnern, dass die erste schwerwiegende Rechtsverletzung vor elf Jahren unter Rot-Grün durch Deutschland begangen wurde, als man gegen die Schuldenkriterien verstieß? – Das war Europarecht. Der Maastrichter Vertrag ist verletzt worden.

Damals wollte die EU-Kommission einen blauen Brief schreiben und wegen der Verstöße bei der Überschreitung der Schuldengrenze sogar Strafzahlungen festlegen. Das hat man sich dann aber letztlich bei Deutschland und später auch bei Frankreich nicht getraut. Aber gegen Griechenland muss alles angewandt werden. Das müssen Sie auch erst einmal erklären.

Vor fünf Monaten begannen die Verhandlungen der drei Institutionen mit der neuen griechischen Regierung. Die neue griechische Regierung wollte erklärtermaßen die gescheiterte Kürzungspolitik beenden. Dagegen stellten sich, wie Sie sagen, alle 18 Regierungen. Sie haben recht: Um die 400 Millionen Euro ging es nicht. Sie wollen die linke Regierung in Griechenland beseitigen. Das ist Ihr Ziel.

Ich werde es Ihnen beweisen. Die Frage ist, welche Mittel und Wege Ihnen dafür recht sind. Außerdem ging es noch um eine andere Frage; bei dieser können Sie zumindest zuhören. Es ging um die Frage der Bedingungslosigkeit. Sowohl die Bundeskanzlerin als auch Herr Gabriel als auch Herr Schäuble haben gesagt, die wollten einen Kredit bedingungsfrei, und man zerstöre den Euro, wenn man das bedingungsfrei mache.

Worum ging es aber wirklich? Es ging darum, dass ein Betrag von 29 Milliarden Euro vom IWF zum Europäischen Stabilitätsmechanismus, ESM, umgeschichtet werden sollte, weil man in dem einen Fall 4 Prozent und in dem anderen Fall nur 1 Prozent Zinsen zahlen muss. Herr Schäuble, alle Schwäbinnen und Schwaben und alle Berlinerinnen und Berliner würden das auch so machen und statt 4 Prozent lieber nur 1 Prozent Zinsen zahlen.

Das ist auch gar nicht weiter schlimm; damit ist man sogar einverstanden. Aber für das Umswitchen braucht man vorübergehend einen kleinenUmswitchungskredit. Daran wollen Sie weitere Bedingungen zum Sozialabbau knüpfen. Die griechische Regierung hat gesagt: Wenn wir schon so viele Kompromisse eingehen müssen, dann macht doch das bedingungsfrei. – Ich kann darin keine Gefährdung des Euro sehen, ganz im Gegenteil. Darauf hätten Sie meines Erachtens eingehen müssen.

Der Weg des Ultimatums war meines Erachtens falsch.

Man hätte weiterverhandeln müssen. Ich sage nicht, dass die griechische Regierung nicht auch Fehler begangen hat.

Ich weiß, dass sie gerade neue Vorschläge unterbreitet.

Ich kann Ihnen sagen, was mich zum Beispiel stört: dass es noch keinen Vorschlag gibt, eine Steuer für die wirklich Reichen in Griechenland zu erheben. Es wird höchste Zeit!

Aber auch Ihre geliebte Troika hat dazu keinen Vorschlag unterbreitet.

Ganz im Gegenteil – hören Sie zu -: Die griechische Regierung hat vorgeschlagen, dass Gewinne über 500 000 Euro ein einziges Mal mit einer Zusatzabgabe belastet werden. Da sagte die Troika: Nein, das kommt überhaupt nicht infrage. – So sieht Ihre Troika aus, um auch das einmal ganz klar zu sagen.

Die Regierung hatte 48 Stunden Zeit und hat dann entsprechend reagiert. Ich habe es vorhin schon gesagt: Ein Grexit, ein Austritt Griechenlands aus dem Euro, wäre aus mehreren Gründen katastrophal.

Er kann eine Kettenreaktion auslösen; das können wir alle gar nicht einschätzen. Wissen Sie genau, was danach passiert? Wir alle tun immer so oberschlau, können das aber gar nicht einschätzen.

Aber davon einmal abgesehen – jetzt im Ernst -: Wir können die Folgen gar nicht genau einschätzen. Wenn es zu einer Kettenreaktion kommt und der Euro tot ist, dann, sage ich Ihnen, sind wir die Leidtragenden. Ich sage Ihnen auch, warum. Die Situation ist nicht dieselbe, die wir vor der Einführung des Euro hatten; sie ist eine ganz andere. All die anderen Währungen – Franc, Peseta, Drachme – wären heute nichts wert. Die Deutsche Mark hätte einen sehr hohen Wert. Die anderen Länder würden nicht auf uns eingehen und sagen: Wir vereinbaren mit euch feste Wechselkurse. – Warum? Sie würden die Billigkeit ihrer Währungen nutzen, um mehr exportieren zu können.

Unser Export bricht dann zusammen; das ist das Problem. Massenarbeitslosigkeit etc. wären die Folgen. Also geht das nicht. Eine Frage interessiert mich wirklich sehr: Wie weit können die Eingriffe in die Innenpolitik eigentlich gehen? Man kann sich über das Ziel verständigen. Wenn man Finanzhilfen gewährt, welcher Art auch immer, muss es Bedingungen geben, um die Rückzahlung zu gewährleisten.

Aber den Weg müssen alleine das Parlament und die Regierung des Landes bestimmen, nicht die Troika, wie es die letzten Jahre der Fall war. Das ist Ihr großer Fehler und Ihr großer Irrtum.

Stellen Sie sich einmal vor, Deutschland wäre in einer solchen Krise, die Troika gäbe uns solche Bedingungen vor und würde fordern: Rentenkürzung um 30 Prozent, hier kürzen, dort kürzen. – Glauben Sie, das würden wir uns bieten lassen? Aber anderen soll man das antun? Man sollte anderen nie etwas antun, was man sich selber nicht bieten lassen würde.

Deshalb sage ich Ihnen: Wir brauchen nicht weniger, sondern sogar mehr Europa. Wir brauchen aber ein anderes Europa, eine gemeinsame Wirtschafts-, Finanz-, Sozial-, Steuer- und Ökologiepolitik.

Wissen Sie, Ihr Hass auf die Linken ist gar nicht nachvollziehbar. Warum sind Sie eigentlich Mitglied der SPD geworden? Ich kann nur sagen: Setzen Sie sich doch gleich zur Union, Herr Kahrs.

Wir müssten festschreiben, dass es in Europa immer um soziale Wohlfahrt und Steuergerechtigkeit gehen muss und nicht das Gegenteil herbeigeführt werden darf, wie es in den letzten Jahren geschehen ist. Die Kommentare, die ich zurzeit lese, sind zum Teil sehr von Hass und Feindseligkeit geprägt.Dagegen sollten wir in gemeinsamer Verantwortung etwas tun.

Das können wir – auch in Anbetracht unserer Geschichte- überhaupt nicht gebrauchen.

Ich leugne nicht, dass die Griechinnen und Griechen am nächsten Sonntag vor einer schweren Entscheidung stehen. Sie können einerseits der Regierung das Vertrauen aussprechen, sie können sich auch für das Gegenteil entscheiden.

Beides hat für sie Vor- und Nachteile. Eines aber geht nicht: Es gibt immer neue Angebote der griechischen Regierung, Frau Bundeskanzlerin. Die französische und die österreichische Regierung wollen gleich mit denen sprechen – egal ob es um ein drittes Paket oder worum auch immer geht. Sie aber sagen: Erst nach dem Sonntag. – Sehen Sie, das ist der Beweis; denn Sie hoffen, dass am Sonntag die Regierung stürzt. Deshalb wollen Sie vorher nicht mit ihr sprechen. Das geht nicht! Das ist verantwortungslos! Ich muss es Ihnen so deutlich sagen.

Wissen Sie, Herr Schäuble, ich habe es Ihnen gesagt und möchte es, um auch einmal Verständnis zu zeigen, gerne wiederholen: Da wird also eine linke Regierung gewählt, die Sie nicht mögen.

Das verstehe ich. Wenn ich in Ihrer Situation wäre und irgendwo anders würde eine erzkonservative Regierung gewählt werden, dann würde ich die ja auch nicht mögen. – Sie sollen der entgegenkommen. Dazu haben Sie keine Lust. Ich hätte auch keine Lust, einer erzkonservativen Regierung entgegenzukommen.

Sie sagen sich: Wenn wir Kompromisse mit Griechenland machen, müssen wir die auch mit Spanien und Portugal machen. – Ich würde ebenfalls sagen: Wenn ich mit einer erzkonservativen Regierung Kompromisse mache, muss ich das, was ja nicht angenehm ist, auch mit anderen Ländern machen.

Dann sagen Sie sich: Wenn wir das alles machen, werden auch die Linken in den anderen Ländern gewinnen, weil die in Griechenland erfolgreich waren. – Auch ich würde das sagen: Wenn ich all das mache, werden in den anderen Ländern die Erzkonservativen gewinnen, weil die erfolgreich waren.

Soweit kann ich das verstehen. Dann aber, Herr Schäuble, muss Ihr politisches Verantwortungsbewusstsein beginnen. Das heißt: Wir können uns einen Crashkurs nicht leisten. Ich hätte dann gesagt: Ich komme der erzkonservativen Regierung entgegen, auch wenn ich mir Ärger in den eigenen Reihen einhandele. – Den Mut hatten Sie nicht. Aber das verlange ich von Ihnen, weil die Frage viel zu wichtig ist.

Als Letztes: Frau Merkel, Sie tragen in diesen Tagen eine gewaltige historische Verantwortung. Finden Sie in letzter Sekunde noch eine Lösung! Sie haben die Chance, entweder als Retterin oder als Zerstörerin der europäischen Idee in die Geschichte einzugehen.

Ja, als Zerstörerin! – Ich wünsche Ihnen, mir und vor allem unserer Bevölkerung, dass Sie sich doch noch endlich entschließen, zu einer Retterin zu werden.

Danke schön.“


Posted by NJ원시

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정책비교/국제정치2015. 6. 29. 18:27


1. 유럽 채권단, 트로이카 (유럽중앙은행, 유럽연합, 국제통화기금 IMF)와 그리스 시리자 정부 협상 결렬 일지


6월 26일 (금) 저녁 : 그리스 시리자 정부 총리 치프라스, 트로이카 신규 구제금융안에 대한 그리스 국민투표 실시 발표

6월 27일 (토) 오후 : 유로그룹, 유럽 재무장관회의, 다음 주 화요일 (6월 30일 마감) 이후로 현행 구제금융 연장해 줄 수 없다고 발표

6월 27일 (토) 저녁: 그리스 의회 7월 5일 국민투표 실시 통과 (찬성: 시리자, 그리스 독립당, 황금새벽당) 

6월 28일 (일) 오후 : 유럽중앙은행 (ECB)은 그리스에 긴급유동성 지원 (ELA) 증액 거부

6월 28일 (일) 저녁: 그리스 정부 발표. 은행 영업 중지 (6월 29일~7월 6일) 및 예금은 1일 60유로로 한정 인출 가능.


2.유럽채권단 트로이카 공방전

유로그룹은 그리스가 협상을 깨버렸다고 비난.

6월 28일 일요일, 유럽연합집행위 (EC) 유럽채권단 제안서를 발표.

이에 대해서 그리스 시리자 정부는 현재 유럽그룹과의 협상은 7월 5일 국민투표 이후에 재개되어야 한다고 발표. 그리스 정부의 구제금융 종료 시한 연정 요청을 트로이카가 거부한다면, 이는 유럽 민주주의 훼손이자, 그리스 주권을 무시하는 처사라고 비판.


3. 그리스 시리자 정부 총리, 알렉시스 치프라스 트위터

"지금부터 국민여러분이 해주셔야 할 것은, '차분히 기다려주시는 것'입니다. 여러분의 예금은 은행에 안전하게 보관되어 있습니다"




그리스 시리자 청년그룹 : 7월 5일 국민투표에서, 트로이카 채권단의 제안서를 '거부 NO'할 것을 

주장하고 있다.






자본통제 내용



i

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Greek debt crisis: Banks to remain shut all week

  • 1 hour ago
  •  
  • From the sectionEurope
Media captionGreeks are queuing for cash, but only 40% of ATMs have money in them, the BBC's Gavin Hewitt reports

The Greek government has confirmed that banks will be closed all week, after a decision by the European Central Bank not to extend emergency funding.

In a decree, it cited the "extremely urgent" need to protect the financial system due to the lack of liquidity.

Cash withdrawals will be limited to €60 (£42; $66) a day for this period, the decree says.

Athens is due to make a €1.6bn payment to the IMF on Tuesday - the same day that its current bailout expires.

In reaction to the crisis, the London, Paris and Frankfurt stock markets fell sharply in early trading on Monday, following similar falls in Asia.

The euro lost 2% of its value against the the US dollar. Government borrowing costs in Italy and Spain, two of the eurozone's weaker economies, have also risen.

Greece crisis - live coverage

Talks between Greece and the eurozone countries over bailout terms ended without an agreement on Saturday, and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras then called a surprise referendum on the issue to be held on 5 July.

Greece risks default and moving closer to a possible exit from the 19-member eurozone.

'Not viable'

The decree was published in the official government gazette after the Greek cabinet took the decision late on Sunday.

The document said the measures - including the shutting down of the Athens stock exchange on Monday - were agreed as a result of the eurozone's decision "to refuse the extension of the loan agreement with Greece".

The €60 restriction on withdrawals will not apply to holders of foreign bank cards.

Mr Tsipras also said that Greek deposits were safe.

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Greeks have been queuing to withdraw money from cash machines over the weekend, leaving a number of ATMs dry.

However, the decree said that the cash machines would "operate normally again by Monday noon at the latest".

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Days of turmoil

  • Friday evening: Greek prime minister calls referendum on terms of new bailout deal, asks for extension of existing bailout
  • Saturday afternoon: eurozone finance ministers refuse to extend existing bailout beyond Tuesday
  • Saturday evening: Greek parliament backs referendum for 5 July
  • Sunday afternoon: ECB says it is not increasing emergency assistance to Greece
  • Sunday evening: Greek government says banks to be closed for the week and cash withdrawals restricted to €60
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Eurozone finance ministers blamed Greece for breaking off the talks, and the European Commission took the unusual step on Sunday of publishing proposals by European creditors that it said were on the table at the time.

But Greece described creditors' terms as "not viable", and asked for an extension of its current deal until after the vote was completed.

"[Rejection] of the Greek government's request for a short extension of the programme was an unprecedented act by European standards, questioning the right of a sovereign people to decide," Mr Tsipras on Sunday said in a televised address.

He also said he had sent a new request for an extension to the bailout. "I am awaiting their immediate response to a fundamental request of democracy," he added.

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Analysis: Robert Peston, BBC economics editor

The temporary closure of banks in Greece, and the introduction of capital controls, is very bad news for Greece. Greek people will have less money to spend and business less to invest; so an already weak economy will probably return to deep recession.

As for the impact on the rest of the eurozone, corporate treasurers and wealthy individuals will wake up on Monday wondering if their money is safe in the banks of other weaker eurozone economies.

Greece's bank holiday from hell

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The current ceiling for the ECB's emergency funding - Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) - is €89bn (£63bn). It is thought that virtually all that money has been disbursed.

The ECB was prepared to risk restricting ELA because the failure of the bailout talks cast new doubt on the viability of Greek banks - some of their assets depend on the government being able to meet its financial commitments, the BBC economics correspondent Andrew Walker reports.

He adds that it is a fundamental principle of central banking that while you do lend to banks that are in temporary difficulty, you do so only if they are solvent.

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Are you in Greece? Are you affected by the issues in this story? What are your hopes and fears for the economy? You can share your experiences by emailing haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk.


Posted by NJ원시

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