북한 개성 남북 연락사무소 철수 이유와 향후 전망 - 문재인 정부의 역할

[단상 메모] 3월 22일, 북한 개성 남북 연락사무소 직원들 철수: 정치적 목표와 한국의 새로운 역할

1) 북측 목표는, 한국 정부가 트럼프와 대별되는 정책을 발표해 달라는 요청사항임. 

2) 하노이 회담 결렬의 책임은 미국 트럼프에게 있다는 것을 알리기 시작함.  협상 국면에서 기싸움과 긴장관계 유지 기간으로 들어감. 

3) 미국의 '포괄적 요구'를 북한은 북에 대한 주권침해로 간주함. 핵물질 생산, ICBM 기술, 대량학살무기,생화학무기 폐기까지 주장한 미강경파에 대한 비난을 정치적 행동으로 옮기기 시작함. 

4) 북측은 향후, 두만강 압록강 국경 외교 돌파. 러시아,중국과의 외교 강화를 통해, 다시 미국을 대화 테이블로 끌어들이겠다는 전술임.

5) 문재인 정부가 해야 할 외교 노선은, 한미일 삼각동맹 틀과는 다른 한중,한러,한일 관계를 만들 필요가 있다. 

6) 문재인 정부는 유엔과 미국의 북한에 대한 경제 제재조치들과 틀이 다른 남북한 협력 방안들을 과감하게 시도해야 한다. 미국과 북측의 '매개자' '갈등 완화재' 역할이 아닌, 한국 자체 경제 군사 정치 문화적 이해관계를 추구할 수 있는 노선을 실천할 때이다. (개성공단 재개, 금강산 관광 사업 등 재개와 확장 가능성, 산업 활동에서 직접적인 노동력 교류를 통한 현물 지급 등) 

7)  4월 11일 북한 최고인민회의에서 김정은은 '남북한 자주노선'을 발표하고 실행 지침을 결의할 확률이 높다. 트럼프와의 협상 노선은 북측의 '단계적 신뢰회복 방안들' 틀을 유지할 것으로 보인다. 

북측은 경제발전을 위한 자주적 과학기술 주권을 훼손하는 미국측 요구와 '비핵화'를 구별해, 후자는 정치적 협상 대상으로 만들 것이다.

8) 남북한은 북한의 식량난 해소와 같은 인도주의적 지원에 대해서 상호 합의하고 실천해야 한다. 그리고 북측도 애초 계획했던 이산가족 상봉과 같은 인도주의적 조치들에 대해서는 남한과 적극 협력해야 한다.

North Korea quits Kaesong liaison office with South Korea

1 hour ago

REUTERS

Image caption

The office was opened with great fanfare in September 2018

North Korea has withdrawn from the inter-Korean liaison office which was opened amid a warming of ties last year to facilitate talks with the South.

Seoul said it was contacted on Friday and informed that the North's staff would be leaving later in the day.

It has expressed its regret at the decision and is urging staff from the North to return as soon as possible.

The pullout follows a failed summit between the US and North Korean leaders in Hanoi last month.

The liaison office, located in the North Korean border city of Kaesong, had allowed officials from North and South Korea to communicate on a regular basis for the first time since the Korean War. It is meant to be staffed by up to 20 people from each side.

When the office was opened in September 2018, it was hailed as representing a significant step forward in inter-Korean relations. The two sides had in the past communicated by fax or special phone lines, which would often be cut when relations soured.

What to make of the Hanoi summit collapse?

US threw away 'golden opportunity' - N Korea

At the time, Seoul's Unification Minister said it would allow for direct discussion of any issues "24 hours, 365 days".

A huge setback for the South Korean president

President Moon had hoped his diplomatic relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un would survive even if talks between the US and the North broke down.

At the moment, this position looks questionable. Mr Moon was counting on his skills as a mediator to try to get US-North Korea talks back on track. But Pyongyang now appears unwilling to talk to Seoul and Mr Moon may not have the influence he needs to get Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un back to the negotiating table.

North Korea may also be asking itself - what is the point of talking to the South? Before the Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi, the two sides were discussing ways to develop economic ties. South Korea had hoped to ask for sanctions exemptions from the US to take part in part in various projects, but Donald Trump has made it clear that will not be acceptable. Pyongyang concluded in a recent newspaper editorial that South Korea can do nothing without US approval.

This announcement will also test the patience of South Korean people. They watched the soaring rhetoric between the two Korean leaders as they held hands during their historic summits last year. Many started to believe, that after 70 years of false hope, this time would be different. But North Korea is now walking away from the pledges it made and this latest development will be seen by many as a sign that peace is once again a distant prospect.

Media captionBBC's Laura Bicker explains why Trump the 'biggest loser' from the summit

Since last month's failed summit in Vietnam between the US and North Korean leaders, Pyongyang has warned that it could resume missile and nuclear testing.

Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui said earlier this month that Washington threw away "a golden opportunity" at the summit.

President Trump had said at the time that Mr Kim had asked for the removal of all sanctions - which the US could not agree to. But Ms Choe said that the North had only asked for five key economic sanctions to be lifted.

US officials have insisted that diplomacy is still "alive".