러시아 . 우크라아니 갈등. 우크라이나 친-EU,NATO 막으려는 러시아 푸틴. 우크라이나 독립파 증가 이유. Feb 12th 2022 edition-The Economist..

참고 자료.  

 

Leaders

Feb 12th 2022 edition-The Economist. 출처.

 

Minsky moment

 

Diplomacy has created an opening for detente in Ukraine, but beware a trap

Russia is invoking the Minsk agreement to sow chaos, not to bring peace

 

Feb 12th 2022

Nothing concentrates minds like 130,000 troops poised to invade. For years relations between Russia and the West have languished, but the Russian forces converging on Ukraine have caused a spasm of diplomacy. On February 7th and 8th Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, went to Moscow and Kyiv with plans to prevent war. He was to be followed east by the British ministers of foreign affairs and defence. Next week will be the turn of Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor.

 

 

All face two sets of Russian demands. One is to recast Europe’s security architecture by constraining nato in the east. The other is to lock Ukraine in Russia’s orbit. Of the two, Ukraine is more urgent and perilous. The danger is that in seeking to avoid an invasion, the West lumbers Ukraine with a deal that leads to internal chaos, or even civil strife.

 

The fulcrum is Donbas, where Russian-backed separatists have been at war with the rest of Ukraine since 2014. The Minsk II agreement, signed in 2015, including by a Ukrainian negotiator, was supposed to stop the fighting, but much of it has never been implemented. Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, wants the West to force the Ukrainian government to comply. Mr Macron and Mr Scholz, backed by the Biden administration, see Minsk as an opportunity.

 

The Ukrainians sense a trap, and they are right to be worried. Minsk is not a treaty so much as a sketch scrawled on the back of an envelope. In fewer than 900 words in its English version, it deals mostly with the ceasefire, dodging hard questions about what comes later. It declares that the renegade regions have a “special” status, without defining what that is. It says there will be elections, but not who can stand or vote. Unspecified “representatives” will help write a new constitution. Which side must do what and when?

 

Vagueness suited Mr Putin, who all along saw Minsk as a tool to manipulate Ukraine. The special status is sometimes taken to mean that the Donbas region should have a veto over foreign policy, including membership of nato. Mr Putin has backed elections there that excluded most of those sympathetic to the government in Kyiv. He has issued hundreds of thousands of Russian passports and controls perhaps 40,000 local troops, whose leaders he wants to help write the new constitution. His version of Minsk is a Trojan horse that would either put Ukraine under Russian control or foment chaos.

 

 

 

For all those reasons many Ukrainians see Minsk as utterly unacceptable. Yet its very vagueness creates a diplomatic opening, which Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s beleaguered president, could exploit in order to take back the initiative. Mr Putin’s is just one of many possible interpretations of Minsk. Talks involving France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia could put flesh on the agreement so as to limit the special status of Donbas, ensure fairer voting and make sure that delegates from Donbas to a constitutional convention are properly elected, not simply appointed by the Kremlin. After the agreement, Western powers could support Ukraine politically, economically and diplomatically.

 

Would Mr Putin agree to that? Perhaps not. In any case the West should not force a deal on Ukraine. That would abrogate Ukrainian sovereignty and destabilise the whole country, with unpredictable consequences that could spill back into the European Union.

 

Mr Putin must weigh the odds, too. Talks over Ukraine, followed by more talks with nato on, say, arms control, could ease tensions and give him some of what he wants. He could tell Russians he is a statesman who has avoided being goaded into war by the West. By contrast, refusing to talk would leave him no tool except an unpredictable, long and (for Russia) possibly ruinous war. Mr Putin has kept people guessing as to what he really wants. Talks over Minsk are the best and safest way to find out.

 

Ukraine under threat
Our coverage of the crisis in Ukraine

The military build-up, divining Russia’s intentions and more

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Feb 13th 2022

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UKRAINE IS SHROUDED in a figurative fog. Until recently the drumbeat of war was only getting louder. But in recent days tensions have moderated, as Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, said he would withdraw some of the 130,000 troops massed near the border with Ukraine. There may yet be a “diplomatic path” out of the crisis, he told reporters at a press conference alongside Olaf Scholz, Germany’s chancellor, on February 15th.

Scepticism of Mr Putin’s pledges remains high in the West. On February 16th Antony Blinken, America’s secretary of state, said there had been “no meaningful pullback”. Not for the first time he noted a “difference between what Russia says and what it does”. De-escalation, said Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary-general, will come from “a real withdrawal of forces”—not just a reshuffling of troops. Open-source sleuths say the evidence of a Russian withdrawal is limited to a single unit in Crimea. Separately, on February 15th the websites of several Ukrainian government ministries and two state banks went offline in a cyber-attack. No culprit has yet been identified, but the Ukrainian government suspects that a foreign intelligence service was involved.

Meanwhile the lower house of Russia’s parliament voted to recognise two breakaway republics in south-eastern Ukraine as independent states. The Kremlin’s approval of the move would violate the Minsk accords, the process by which Ukraine is meant to re-absorb them. Mr Putin has not backed the motion; instead he seems to want to continue negotiations around the accords.

His next move is anyone’s guess. The Economist is following it all closely. Our coverage below describes what’s at stake, what lies behind Mr Putin’s thinking and what might happen.

Our latest stories

Vladimir Putin keeps all options open in Ukraine (Feb 15th)
Russia’s military build-up goes on as it mulls the near-annexation of breakaway regions

Russia offers an olive branch, but still wields the sword (Feb 14th)
Vladimir Putin signals a readiness to keep negotiating with the West as his military build-up continues

The Ukrainian port of Odessa prepares for war (Feb 14th)
The mayor is ready for anything

To Russian denials, America warns of an imminent invasion of Ukraine (Feb 13th)
But Russia’s military build-up continues

Diplomacy has created an opening for detente in Ukraine, but beware a trap (Feb 12th)
Russia is invoking the Minsk agreement to sow chaos, not to bring peace

Russia’s military build-up enters a more dangerous phase (Feb 11th)
New satellite images show troops and equipment massing ever-closer to Ukraine

Russia’s military build-up

How big is Russia’s military build-up around Ukraine? (Jan 31st)
It is the biggest concentration of firepower in Europe since the cold war

As war looms larger, what are Russia’s military options in Ukraine? (Jan 22nd)

Will Ukraine’s muddy ground halt Russian tanks? (Feb 7th)
The spring thaw may complicate an attack. It won’t stop itThey all have their drawbacks

Shuttle diplomacy

Emmanuel Macron’s Ukraine mission buys time, but works no miracles (Feb 8th)
He is treading a perilous path between his own friends’ suspicions and Vladimir Putin’s belligerence

How to talk to Mr Putin (Jan 8th)
Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine has created a chance to enhance the security of Europe

Russia and the West meet for a crucial week of diplomacy (Jan 15th)
Even as they talk, both sides are preparing for war

Views from Kyiv and Moscow

Why Ukraine’s president is talking down the threat from Russia (Feb 2nd)
Volodymyr Zelensky’s call for calm rubs America the wrong way

Ukrainians are peculiarly relaxed about Russia’s troop build-up (Jan 8th)
Many have grown inured to a risk they can do nothing about

Some Ukrainians ignore the prospect of war. Others are fleeing (Feb 9th)
Liza and Yulia disagree about the risk of a Russian invasion

If Vladimir Putin does decide on war in Ukraine, few Russians will be expecting it (Feb 7th)
The propaganda machine has not yet been switched on

The Economist Asks: Will there be war or peace in Ukraine? (Feb 3rd)
We ask Oleksander Danilyuk, Ukraine’s former national security chief

The economic consequences of war

America prepares the “mother of all sanctions” against Russia (Feb 1st)
How much would they hurt?

How will Europe cope if Russia cuts off its gas? (Jan 29th)
Better than you might think

The hidden costs of cutting Russia off from SWIFT (Dec 18th)
America’s foes would rush to alternatives, hastening its financial decline

NATO’s revival

How Russia has revived NATO (Feb 12th)
Ukraine has forced America and its allies to bond. But the country’s future is still uncertain

Jens Stoltenberg explains how to step back from the brink of European conflict (Feb 9th)
NATO chief says Russia must respect the rights of countries to choose their own path

As Russia menaces Ukraine, eastern European countries grow nervous (Jan 30th)
Even relatively friendly countries in the region mistrust Russian expansionism

Russia’s menacing of Ukraine is unlikely to induce NATO to retreat (Jan 8th)
It may have the opposite effect

All the rest

Yuval Noah Harari argues that what’s at stake in Ukraine is the direction of human history (Feb 9th)
Humanity’s greatest political achievement has been the decline of war. That is now in jeopardy

Film: Disputed Borders: Russia and Ukraine (Feb 9th)
Why can’t Russia accept its neighbour’s independence?

“Taras Bulba” and the tragedy of Russia and Ukraine (Feb 3rd)
Literature offers a better way to think about their vexed relations

How tensions in Ukraine could rile Egypt (Feb 3rd)
A disruption in the wheat market would cause serious harm to the biggest Arab country

A war in Ukraine could have global consequences (Jan 29th)
Human suffering, economic shock and a geopolitical realignment

What are Vladimir Putin’s military intentions in Ukraine? (Jan 29th)
Only he can say

Germany’s new chancellor dithers in the face of Russia’s threats (Jan 29th)
But Olaf Scholz is starting to firm up

What China thinks of possible war in Ukraine (Jan 29th)
Shared hostility to America makes China close to Russia, but cautious

Commodities traders brace for a war in Ukraine (Jan 29th)
Tight markets mean that prices are all too responsive to rising tensions

Momentum is building for war in Ukraine (Jan 22nd)
Vladimir Putin is courting disaster for Russia’s neighbour—and himself

How to deter Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine (Dec 18th)
The West, and Ukrainians, should raise the cost of Russian aggression

Why Russia has never accepted Ukrainian independence (Dec 18th)
It might have, had it chosen democracy

Joe Biden adopts a tough new tone with Vladimir Putin (Dec 11th)
But will it be enough to avert another Russian invasion of Ukraine?

The Ukrainian army has got better at fighting Russian-backed separatists (Dec 4th)
But now war of a different kind looms