트럼프 플로리다 별장 동네에서 주 의회 보궐 선거, 공화당 패배.
플로리다 공화당 압도적 우세 지역에서 보궐 선거 (하원 87구역, 상원 14구역)에서 패배.
(1) 트럼프, 이란과의 전쟁, 유가 상승으로 귀결. 물가 상승, 생필품 가격 상승, 주택융자(모기지) 불안정성 등으로 지지율 더 떨어짐
(2) 낮은 투표율 30% 미만 (보궐 선거 특성, 공화당 지지층 무관심, 무당층의 대거 민주당 지지)
11월 중간선거의 경우, 투표율은 60~70%로 올라갈 것임.
플로리다 주 상원 하원 선거에서, 트럼프 공화당 2패, 1승인데, 내용을 보면, 낮은 투표율(무관심)공화당 텃밭에서 압도적 패배 당함.
플로리다 주 의회는 상원 (40명 중, 공화당 27명, 민주당 12명) 하원 (120명 중, 공화당 84명, 민주당 35명)으로 공화당이 압도적인 다수.
트럼프 마-라-라고 동네, 플로리다 주의회 하원 선거에서 민주당 당선. 트럼프가 대선에서 민주당을 11% 앞선 지역구임. 직전 주의회 선거에서는 공화당 마이크 카루소가 민주당에 19% 앞선 선거구임.
당선자는 ‘출산 엄마’를 위한 체육관 운영 여성, 에밀리 고레고리.
보궐 선거 이유는, 마이크 카루소 (Mike Caruso) 공화당 주의원이 팜 비치 법원 서기 및 회계 감사원으로 승진해 감.
투표율. 29%에 에밀리 민주당 후보가 공화당 후보에 2% 차이로 이김.
참고 ( 2024년 대선, 투표율 75%, 트럼프가 11% 앞섬)
2. 플로리다 주 상원 민주당 브라이언 네이던이 50.25%로 공화당 조지 톰코우 (49.75%)에, 408표 차이, 근소한 차이로 이겨, 이번 주 금요일 재검표 실시 예정. 2022년 선거에서 공화당 후보 콜린스가 10% 차이로 이겼던 선거구. 조지 톰코우 후보가 민주당 후보에 비해 선거비용 3배를 더 쓰고 패배.
Axios 악시오스 보도. 20개 주의회에서,
2024년 대선 민주당 카말라 해리스 후보와 비교해서, 민주당 후보가 10.5%를 더 득표하고 있다. 트럼프 (공화당) 지지율이 떨어지고 있다는 증거.
3. 플로리다 주 하원 (51구역) 선거. 공화당 후보 승리.
투표율은 11.6%
힐러리 홀리 (Hilary Holley) 공화당 후보. 54.2% (8406표)
에드윈 페레즈 (Edwin Perez) 민주당 후보. 45.8% (7109표)
1.
Democrat leads by razor-thin margin in Tampa special state Senate election
The race is in recount territory, meaning it could take days to know the final result.
Democratic state Senate candidate Brian Nathan waves at potential voters outside the Jan Kaminis Platt Regional Library on Tuesday. He had a razor-thin lead over his Republican opponent, Josie Tomkow, as of Tuesday night.
Democratic state Senate candidate Brian Nathan waves at potential voters outside the Jan Kaminis Platt Regional Library on Tuesday. He had a razor-thin lead over his Republican opponent, Josie Tomkow, as of Tuesday night. [ DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD | Times ]
By
Shauna MuckleTimes staff
Published Yesterday|Updated 6 hours ago
Democrat Brian Nathan is leading his Republican opponent by a razor-thin margin in the Tampa-area special state Senate election to replace Jay Collins.
With all precincts reporting, Nathan, a union leader and Navy veteran, led former state Rep. Josie Tomkow by half a percentage point, 50.25% to 49.75%. That margin, if it holds, would trigger a machine recount.
That means it could take days to know the final outcome of the race.
But Nathan was celebrating the results Tuesday evening and said that Tomkow had called him to concede. Tomkow indicated she plans to run again in November.
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“We’re thankful to all the voters who showed up and took part in this campaign with us and excited to continue working to November to victory,” she said in a text message Wednesday.
A victory by Nathan would represent a major upset in a district that Collins, a Republican, won by almost 10 points in 2022. Republicans hold an advantage of about 22,000 voters in the district.
More Republicans turned out than Democrats at the polls. The difference likely came down to third-party voters — more than 13,000 had cast their ballots as of 6 p.m. Tuesday.
“It came down to turnout,” Nathan said. “I really think this came through because we were speaking to (third-party voters) where they were at.”
Related: Compare the candidates in Tampa’s special state Senate election
Nathan’s performance is in keeping with a nationwide trend. In 20 state legislative races across the country, Democrats have improved upon former Vice President Kamala Harris’ performance by 10.5 points on average, according to reporting from Axios.
The Associated Press had not called the race for Nathan as of 10 p.m. But the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which funds state legislative races across the country, declared victory for Nathan and another Florida Democrat, Emily Gregory, who flipped a Palm Beach County state House seat that went for President Donald Trump by about 10 points.
“Mar-a-Lago and Tampa just flipped red to blue, which should have Republicans sweating the midterms,” Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said in a statement. “State Democrats have now flipped a staggering 30 districts red to blue since Trump’s election.”
David Jolly, a Democratic candidate for governor, also celebrated Nathan and Gregory as winners.
“Tonight, (voters have) rightfully put their trust in Sen. Elect Brian Nathan and Rep. Elect Emily Gregory,” Jolly said in a statement. In November, we have the historic opportunity to elect a Democratic Governor. It’s clear. Change is here."
Senate District 14 covers much of Hillsborough County west of Interstate 275, including South and West Tampa, as well as suburbs like Town ‘N Country, Westchase, Carrollwood and Lutz.
Republican candidate Josie Tomkow speaks to a voter outside of voting precinct 112 on Tuesday in Tampa. The turnout advantage for Republicans grew larger on election day.
Republican candidate Josie Tomkow speaks to a voter outside of voting precinct 112 on Tuesday in Tampa. The turnout advantage for Republicans grew larger on election day. [ CHRIS URSO | Times ]
More than a quarter of eligible voters cast their ballots in Tuesday’s special election. That’s an improvement compared to the last time Hillsborough County held a special legislative election in 2017. Turnout in the election for House District 58, which at the time covered parts of east Hillsborough, was just over 15%.
There are still 186 provisional ballots and other ballots awaiting review, said Gerri Kramer, spokesperson for the Hillsborough Supervisor of Elections office. Some may be rejected, she said.
Voters have until Thursday to correct those ballots. If the race is still within recount territory (a margin of 0.5 percentage points or less), that process would begin Tuesday, Kramer said. Elections officers will decide Friday whether a recount is needed.
Some who voted said they knew little about the candidates. About a dozen voters who spoke with the Tampa Bay Times on Tuesday said they cast a ballot either to support their party or because such civic engagement was the right thing to do.
Tomkow had two major advantages: a Republican registration edge in the district and a sizable fundraising lead.
Tomkow outspent Nathan more than 3-to-1. She also received more than $400,000 in in-kind contributions from the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Democratic candidate Brian Nathan greets a potential voter outside the Jan Kaminis Platt Regional Library on Tuesday in Tampa.
Democratic candidate Brian Nathan greets a potential voter outside the Jan Kaminis Platt Regional Library on Tuesday in Tampa. [ DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD | Times ]
But Nathan said he sees parallels between himself and Texas Democrat Taylor Rehmet, an Air Force veteran and machinists union leader who won a special election in a solid red state Senate district that Trump carried by 17 points. Rehmet was also vastly outspent by his Republican opponent.
The results Tuesday suggest Florida is not immune to surprise Democratic victories, Nathan said.
“I think (my victory) says Florida is more in play than the prognosticators have said up until now,” he said. “That’s not to say it’s going to be a walk in the park to flip the state. But I think we can flip large parts of the state.”
Nathan, should he win, will be on the ballot in November, potentially facing Tomkow again. But for now, he said he’s ready to fight to preserve Florida’s congressional map in a special session next month.
And Florida lawmakers still have to nail down the state budget.
Shauna Muckle - Politics reporter
Shauna Muckle is a reporter covering politics in Florida. They can be reached at smuckle@tampabay.com.
.
Florida Democrats flip two seats in special legislative elections • Florida Phoenix
Florida Democrats flipped two legislative seats Tuesday night in their biggest election night in years. In the only state Senate election on the ballot, Democrat Brian Nathan, a Navy veteran, union organizer, and first-time candidate, shocked Republican st
floridaphoenix.com
2.
Democrat leads by razor-thin margin in Tampa special state Senate election
The race is in recount territory, meaning it could take days to know the final result.
3
Democratic state Senate candidate Brian Nathan waves at potential voters outside the Jan Kaminis Platt Regional Library on Tuesday. He had a razor-thin lead over his Republican opponent, Josie Tomkow, as of Tuesday night.
Democratic state Senate candidate Brian Nathan waves at potential voters outside the Jan Kaminis Platt Regional Library on Tuesday. He had a razor-thin lead over his Republican opponent, Josie Tomkow, as of Tuesday night. [ DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD | Times ]
By
Shauna MuckleTimes staff
Published Yesterday|Updated 57 minutes ago
Democrat Brian Nathan is leading his Republican opponent by a razor-thin margin in the Tampa-area special state Senate election to replace Jay Collins.
With all precincts reporting, Nathan, a union leader and Navy veteran, led former state Rep. Josie Tomkow by half a percentage point, 50.25% to 49.75%. That margin, if it holds, would trigger a machine recount.
That means it could take days to know the final outcome of the race.
But Nathan was celebrating the results Tuesday evening and said that Tomkow had called him to concede. Tomkow indicated she plans to run again in November.
“We’re thankful to all the voters who showed up and took part in this campaign with us and excited to continue working to November to victory,” she said in a text message Wednesday.
A victory by Nathan would represent a major upset in a district that Collins, a Republican, won by almost 10 points in 2022. Republicans hold an advantage of about 22,000 voters in the district.
More Republicans turned out than Democrats at the polls. The difference likely came down to third-party voters — more than 13,000 had cast their ballots as of 6 p.m. Tuesday.
“It came down to turnout,” Nathan said. “I really think this came through because we were speaking to (third-party voters) where they were at.”
Related: Compare the candidates in Tampa’s special state Senate election
Nathan’s performance is in keeping with a nationwide trend. In 20 state legislative races across the country, Democrats have improved upon former Vice President Kamala Harris’ performance by 10.5 points on average, according to reporting from Axios.
The Associated Press had not called the race for Nathan as of 10 p.m. But the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which funds state legislative races across the country, declared victory for Nathan and another Florida Democrat, Emily Gregory, who flipped a Palm Beach County state House seat that went for President Donald Trump by about 10 points.
“Mar-a-Lago and Tampa just flipped red to blue, which should have Republicans sweating the midterms,” Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said in a statement. “State Democrats have now flipped a staggering 30 districts red to blue since Trump’s election.”
David Jolly, a Democratic candidate for governor, also celebrated Nathan and Gregory as winners.
“Tonight, (voters have) rightfully put their trust in Sen. Elect Brian Nathan and Rep. Elect Emily Gregory,” Jolly said in a statement. In November, we have the historic opportunity to elect a Democratic Governor. It’s clear. Change is here."
Senate District 14 covers much of Hillsborough County west of Interstate 275, including South and West Tampa, as well as suburbs like Town ‘N Country, Westchase, Carrollwood and Lutz.
More than a quarter of eligible voters cast their ballots in Tuesday’s special election. That’s an improvement compared to the last time Hillsborough County held a special legislative election in 2017. Turnout in the election for House District 58, which at the time covered parts of east Hillsborough, was just over 15%.
There are still 186 provisional ballots and other ballots awaiting review, said Gerri Kramer, spokesperson for the Hillsborough Supervisor of Elections office. Some may be rejected, she said.
Voters have until Thursday to correct those ballots. If the race is still within recount territory (a margin of 0.5 percentage points or less), that process would begin Tuesday, Kramer said. Elections officers will decide Friday whether a recount is needed.
Some who voted said they knew little about the candidates. About a dozen voters who spoke with the Tampa Bay Times on Tuesday said they cast a ballot either to support their party or because such civic engagement was the right thing to do.
Tomkow had two major advantages: a Republican registration edge in the district and a sizable fundraising lead.
Tomkow outspent Nathan more than 3-to-1. She also received more than $400,000 in in-kind contributions from the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee.
But Nathan said he sees parallels between himself and Texas Democrat Taylor Rehmet, an Air Force veteran and machinists union leader who won a special election in a solid red state Senate district that Trump carried by 17 points. Rehmet was also vastly outspent by his Republican opponent.
The results Tuesday suggest Florida is not immune to surprise Democratic victories, Nathan said.
“I think (my victory) says Florida is more in play than the prognosticators have said up until now,” he said. “That’s not to say it’s going to be a walk in the park to flip the state. But I think we can flip large parts of the state.”
Nathan, should he win, will be on the ballot in November, potentially facing Tomkow again. But for now, he said he’s ready to fight to preserve Florida’s congressional map in a special session next month.
And Florida lawmakers still have to nail down the state budget.
Shauna Muckle - Politics reporter
Shauna Muckle is a reporter covering politics in Florida. They can be reached at smuckle@tampabay.com.
Democrat leads by razor-thin margin in Tampa special state Senate election
The race is in recount territory, meaning it could take days to know the final result.
www.tampabay.com
2022년 플로리다 주 상원 (14구역) 선거 결과
공화당 54.6% 민주당 45.4%
2018년 공화당 56.3%
민주당 43.7%
3. PBS 보도
U.S. Secret Service agents and local police killed a man who breached a secure perimeter at President Donald Trump's Mar-a...
By —
Jonathan J. Cooper, Associated Press
Florida Democrat flips seat in special election in district that includes Trump's Mar-a-Lago
Politics Mar 25, 2026 10:27 AM EDT
Democrat Emily Gregory won a Florida special election on Tuesday, flipping a state legislative district that is home to Mar-a-Lago, the Palm Beach estate that President Donald Trump counts as his residence.
The president had endorsed Gregory's rival, Jon Maples. In a social media post Monday, he urged voters to turn out, saying Maples was backed "by so many of my Palm Beach County friends."
READ MORE: Trump casts Florida ballot by mail as he pushes Congress to severely limit that voting option
Democrats celebrated the victory as the latest sign voters are turning against Trump and Republicans ahead of the midterm elections in November. Tuesday was the latest in a series of lopsided or improbable victories in special elections across the country since Trump returned to the White House more than a year ago.
The district was previously represented by Mike Caruso, a Republican who resigned to become Palm Beach County's clerk. Caruso won by 19 percentage points in 2024.
"If Mar-a-Lago is vulnerable, imagine what's possible this November," said Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. She said Tuesday's race was the 29th seat that Democrats have flipped from Republican control since Trump took office.
"Gas prices are spiking, grocery costs are up, and families can't get by — it's clear voters at the polls are fed up with Republicans," Williams said.
With almost all votes counted, Gregory led by 2.4 percentage points, or 797 votes.
READ MORE: Americans are increasingly worried about voting, new poll shows
Gregory grew up north of Palm Beach in Stuart. She's the owner of a fitness company that works with pregnant and postpartum women, and she has never run for elected office before.
Speaking to MSNOW after her victory, she said she was "pretty shocked" and "having a fairly out-of-body experience."
Democrats have notched some notable wins in Republican-controlled Florida. In December, Eileen Higgins won the race for Miami mayor, the first time a Democrat had led the city in nearly three decades. She defeated a Trump-endorsed Republican in a campaign that leaned heavily into criticism of the president's immigration crackdown, a message that resonated with the city's large Hispanic population.
Farther west in Texas, Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a reliably Republican state Senate district in a special election in January.
Trump immediately distanced himself from the loss in a district he'd won by 17 points in 2024, saying "I'm not involved in that" even though he had endorsed the Republican candidate.
The Texas race energized Democrats desperate for signs of momentum after being locked out of power in Washington.
But winning in Trump's backyard left them especially ebullient.
"Donald Trump's own neighbors just sent a crystal clear message: They are furious and ready for change," said Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin.
Trump voted by mail in the Tuesday election and his ballot was counted, Palm Beach County voter records show. He chose a mail ballot despite publicly bashing the voting method as a source of fraud and pushing Congress to curtail the practice.
Trump was a New Yorker for most of his life but switched his personal residence and voter registration to Florida during his first term. Mar-a-Lago has become a gathering place for Trump's friends and allies, as well as business executives and foreign leaders looking to curry favor with him. He spends many weekends there as president.
3.
Hilary Holley replaces Josie Tomkow in Florida House. But Tomkow loses
Gary White, Lakeland Ledger
Tue, March 24, 2026 at 8:35 PM EDT
2 min read
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(This story was revised to include new information.)
The Polk County legislative delegation will remain entirely Republican.
Hilary Holley of Polk City defeated Edwin Perez, a Democrat from Haines City, in a special election for Florida House District 51. Holley captured 54.8% of the vote compared with 45.2% for Perez, according to unofficial results from the Polk County Supervisor of Elections Office.
Holley will replace Josie Tomkow, a Polk City Republican. Tomkow, who was barred from seeking another term, resigned as of March 23 to run in a special election for Florida Senate District 14 in western Hillsborough County.
District 51 covers northern Polk County, including Auburndale, Haines City and Davenport, but not Lakeland. The participation rate for the special election was 11.6%, the elections office reported.
Hilary Holley, a Republican from Polk City, defeated Democrat Edwin Perez in a special election for Florida House District 51.
Hilary Holley, a Republican from Polk City, defeated Democrat Edwin Perez in a special election for Florida House District 51.
Holley’s term only runs through November, when the general election will take place. She is expected to run for a full term.
Holley, 37, is executive director of the Florida FFA Foundation. She described herself as a fifth-generation Floridian involved in the agriculture industry and is a married mother of two children in elementary school.
A Punta Gorda native, Holley earned a bachelor’s degree in agricultural education and communication from the University of Florida and has lived in Polk County since 2013. She worked in external affairs for former state Sen. Denise Grimsley, Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putnam and Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis.
Perez, 66, is a retired small-business owner and vice chair of the Hispanic Democratic Caucus of Polk County.
The special election in District 51 carries added importance because the Florida Legislature has not yet completed its session, leaving Tallahassee without agreeing on a state budget. The Legislature is also expected to hold multiple special sessions, addressing Gov. Ron DeSantis’ calls for a rare, mid-decade rewriting of congressional maps and the potential elimination of property taxes.
Holley drew endorsements from Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Wilton Simpson, U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee, Polk County Property Appraiser Neil Combee and Polk County state Reps. Jon Albert, Jennifer Kincart Jonsson and Tomkow, as well as Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd.
As of March 24, Holley had reported $122,000 in campaign contributions. Perez reported just over $13,000.
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In a major upset for the Democrats, Brian Nathan beat Tomkow in the Senate special election by 408 votes, according to unofficial results from the Hillsborough County elections office. The margin, 50.25% to 49.75%, appears to be barely larger than the half percentage point that would trigger an automatic recount.
Republican Jay Collins, who was appointed lieutenant governor by Gov. Ron DeSantis in August, won the seat by 10 points in 2022. Tomkow had nearly $325,000 in campaign funds, compared to nearly $102,000 for Nathan.
Polk County’s two state senators, Ben Albritton of Wauchula and Colleen Burton of Lakeland, are also Republicans.
Gary White can be reached at gary.white@theledger.com or 863-802-7518. Follow on X @garywhite13.
