한국정치 노트 Notes on the Politics of Korea

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이코노미스트의 'liberal state와 자유 무역 free trade'는 경제성장과 부의 평등화 실현 두 가지를 다 잡기 위한 정책은 무엇이어야 하는가에 대한 대답은 되지 못한다.  부의 불평등 문제는 정치적인 실천을 통해 해결된다. 현재 법률이 철폐되지 않으면 부의 불평등 문제를 해결되지 못한다. 

한국 진보정당 (특히 2007년부터 2023년 현재까지)의 오류는, 몇가지 사회복지국가 정책들만 기계적으로 한국정치판에 도입하려고 하는데, 1945년~1975년 서유럽 복지정책들을 낳게 한 당시 정치적 지형과 정치투쟁, 정당들 간의 경쟁, 시민의식들을 고려하지 않고서는, 속칭 경제전문가 정치평론가들은 진보정당에서 실패할 것이다. 이미 실패했고.

이번 이코노미스트 주간지가 다룬 주제들의 유의미성.

다만 지난 200년간 세계 자본주의 발달사에서 늘 문제가 되었던, '국가 보호주의'와 '자유 무역'과의 갈등 문제에 대해서는 토론의 가치가 있다. 

칼 마르크스도 '자유 무역'의 긍정성을 말한 바 있다. 무조건 '자유 무역'이 나쁜 것도 아니고 선한 것도 아니다. 한국의 경우, 민족주의와 '자유 무역주의'가 조화롭게 일체를 이룬 나라이기도 하다. '수출만이 살 길이다' '수출로 먹고 사는 나라'라는 구호와 믿음, 그리고 리버럴 민주당과 보수파 정당 국힘 모두 어느 정도 '민족주의'에 동조해 왔다.

일제 식민지 잔재 청산과 일본과의 정치적 경제적 교류를 혼동해, 리버럴 민주당이 '군중 동원식 민족주의' '이번 총선은 한일전이다'라는 현명하지 못한 정치를 하다가 실패한 사례도 있다.

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번역 및 요약.

부자 국가 정치가들이 왜 경제 성장을 포기하고 있는가?

요약: 리버럴리스트 이코노미스트 주간지의 입장. 선진 자본주의 국가들의 정치가들이 경제성장 정책을 쓰지 않고 미적대다가는 세계 경제 무대에서 사라질 수 있다.

(이코노미스트 2022.12월 17일자)

1. 생활수준 정체됨. 맹렬한 비난을 일삼는 포퓰리즘.

선진국 경제 성장 지표. 1980년과 2000년 사이 연간 1인당 GDP 성장율은 2.25%, 2000년 이후 1.1%로 하락했음.

2.선진 자본주의 국가의 경제성장의 역사.

2차 세계대전 이후, 고학력 베이비 붐 세대 등장으로 생산성 향상.

1970~80년대 여성의 경제활동 증가.

세계무역 활성화, 아시아가 세계 경제로 통합됨.

일상 생활 수준 향상 지표.

1950년대 미국 가구의 3분의 1이 수세식 화장실 (flush toilet)이 없었음. 2000년 대부분 미국 가구가 자동차를 소유함.

3. 경제성장의 상대적 하락 원인들.

베이비 붐 세대 노령화와 은퇴로 인해 숙련 노동자 숫자 감소.

여성의 경제 참여율이 점진적 하락.

소비자들이 부자가 될수록, 서비스 부문에 더 많이 지출하게 되는데 비해, 이를 충족시킬 수 있는 숙련된 노동자와 노동생산성은 미치지 못함. 예를들어, 교통, 교육, 건설 부문은 20년 전처럼 매력적임. 반면 대학교육, 주택, 보건의료 부문은 불필요한 행정절차와 지대추구라는 난관을 떠안고 있다.

4. 노령화가 경제성장에 미치는 영향.

노령화로 인해 숙련 노동자 감소가 발생하고, 이것은 다시 노동생산성 하락으로 이어짐. 또한 경제성장에 대한 유권자 태도가 달라졌음. 1980년대 이후, 경제성장에 대한 반감이 60% 정도 증가했음. 선진 자본주의 복지국가들이 청소년,청년의 교육과 발달, 경제성장을 촉진시키는 인프라에 투자하는 것보다 노인 연금과 건강 보험에 더 투자를 했음.

5. 선진국 정치인들의 ‘국가주의’, 보호 무역주의 정책의 문제점.

선진국 정치인들이 말로는 경제성장을 외쳤지만, 실제로는 실천하지 않음. 영국(Britain)에서는 ‘구조적 변화’와 정치인의 부패라는 쌍둥이 문제가 터져 나옴. 2007년 이후, 영국의 1인당 GDP 성장율은 겨우 0.4%임.

(영국 정책 실패 사례) 풍요로운 동남쪽 지방에 주택난 발생으로 생산성 향상에 지장 초래.

유럽연합 탈퇴로 인해 통상무역 피해 발생, 투자 기피 발생. 2022년 9월에 보수당 출신 리즈 트루스(Liz Truss)가 수상이 된 이후, 세금 인하를 발표했으나, 오히려 금융 위기를 불러옴.

미국 트럼프도 연간 경제성장율 4%를 공약했지만, 세계 자유 무역을 반대함으로써 장기 경제활성화와 풍요를 가로막았음. 리즈 트루스 역시 트럼프와 동일한 오류.

2021년 미국은 1만 2천개의 신규 규제정책을 만들었음. “국가 산업정책, 보호주의, 정부 구제 정책이 경제성장의 방도라고 믿고 있음” 이러한 정책 배후에는, 리버럴 자본주의와 자유 무역이 경제성장의 걸림돌이라는 잘못된 믿음이 깔려있음. 이러한 잘못된 믿음은 또한 경제성장과 ‘녹색 성장’은 양립할 수 없다는 전제를 깔고 있음.

6. 이코노미스트 대안.

경제활동 인구 감소를 극복할 수 있는 방안이란, 더 리버럴한, 경제성장 개혁안이 필요하다.

자유 무역, 정부 규제 완화, 이민 정책 개혁, 경제 투자를 위한 세금 정책 개혁 등이 연간 1인당 경제성장율 0.5%를 증가시킬 수 있음.

독재정치를 하는 중국과 러시아가 자기 스스로 경제 성장에 상처를 내고 있기 때문에, 지금이야 얼마 정도 서구 자본주의 국가들 경제 상태가 좋게 보일 뿐이다.

그러나 서구 자본주의 국가들이 경제성장 정책과 풍부한 민주주의 정책들을 강구하지 않는다면 세계 무대에서 그들의 경제 활력은 사라지게 되고 더 약화될 것이다.

로버트 루카스 Robert Lucas 의 말 인용 “It is hard to think about anything else”

경제성장(growth)을 빼놓고 어떤 다른 것도 생각하기 힘들다.

정부와 정치인들이 경제성장을 위해 첫발을 내딛어야 한다.

Why are the rich world’s politicians giving up on economic growth?

Even when they say they want more prosperity, they act as if they don’t

Dec 14th 2022

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The prospect of recession may loom over the global economy today, but the rich world’s difficulties over growth are graver still. The long-run rate of growth has dwindled alarmingly, contributing to problems including stagnant living standards and fulminating populists. Between 1980 and 2000, gdp per person grew at an annual rate of 2.25% on average. Since then the pace of growth has sunk to about 1.1%.

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Although much of the slowdown reflects immutable forces such as ageing, some of it can be reversed. The problem is that, as we write this week, reviving growth has slid perilously down politicians’ to-do lists. Their election manifestos are less focused on growth than before, and their appetite for reform has vanished.

The latter half of the 20th century was a golden age for growth. After the second world war, a baby boom produced a cohort of workers who were better educated than any previous generation and who boosted average productivity as they gained experience. In the 1970s and 1980s women in many rich countries flocked into the workforce. The lowering of trade barriers and the integration of Asia into the world economy later led to much more efficient production. Life got better. In 1950 nearly a third of American households were without flush toilets. By 2000 most of them could boast of owning at least two cars.

Many of those growth-boosting trends have since stalled or gone into reverse. The skills of the labour force have stopped improving as fast. Ever more workers are retiring, women’s labour-force participation has flattened off and little more is to be gained by expanding basic education. As consumers have become richer, they have spent more of their income on services, for which productivity gains are harder to come by. Sectors like transport, education and construction look much as they did two decades ago. Others, such as university education, housing and health care, are lumbered with red tape and rent-seeking.

Ageing has not just hurt growth directly, it has also made electorates less bothered about gdp. Growth most benefits workers with a career ahead of them, not pensioners on fixed incomes. Our analysis of political manifestos shows that the anti-growth sentiment they contain has surged by about 60% since the 1980s. Welfare states have become focused on providing the elderly with pensions and health care rather than investing in growth-boosting infrastructure or the development of young children. Support for growth-enhancing reforms has withered.

Moreover, even when politicians say they want growth, they act as if they don’t. The twin problems of structural change and political decay are especially apparent in Britain, which since 2007 has managed annual growth in gdp per person averaging just 0.4% (see Britain section). Its failure to build enough houses in its prosperous south-east has hampered productivity, and its exit from the European Union has damaged trade and scared off investment. In September Liz Truss became prime minister by promising to boost growth with deficit-financed tax cuts, but succeeded only in sparking a financial crisis.

Ms Truss fits a broader pattern of failure. President Donald Trump promised 4% annual growth but hindered long-term prosperity by undermining the global trading system. America’s government introduced 12,000 new regulations last year alone. Today’s leaders are the most statist in many decades, and seem to believe that industrial policy, protectionism and bail-outs are the route to economic success. That is partly because of a misguided belief that liberal capitalism or free trade is to blame for the growth slowdown. Sometimes this belief is exacerbated by the fallacy that growth cannot be green.

In fact, demographic decline means that liberal, growth-boosting reforms are more vital than ever. These will not restore the heady rates of the late 20th century. But embracing free trade, loosening building rules, reforming immigration regimes and making tax systems friendly to business investment may add half a percentage point or so to annual per-person growth. That will not put voters in raptures, but today’s growth is so low that every bit of progress matters—and in time will add up to much greater economic strength.

For the time being the West is being made to look good by autocratic China and Russia, which have both inflicted deep economic wounds on themselves. Yet unless they embrace growth, rich democracies will see their economic vitality ebb away and will become weaker on the world stage. Once you start thinking about growth, wrote Robert Lucas, a Nobel-prize-winning economist, “it is hard to think about anything else”. If only governments would take that first step. ■

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This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline "Sapped of vitality"

Leaders

December 16th 2022

Fulminating populists – 맹렬한 비난을 일삼는 포퓰리스트.

fulminate

1 of 2

verb

ful·​mi·​nate ˈfu̇l-mə-ˌnāt  ˈfəl-

fulminated; fulminating

: to utter or send out with denunciation

fulminate a decree

intransitive verb

: to send forth censures or invectives

fulminating against government regulators

—Mark Singer

fulmination

ˌfu̇l-mə-ˈnā-shən

ˌfəl-

 noun

fulminate

2 of 2

noun

: an often explosive salt (such as mercury fulminate) containing the group −CNO

Did you know?

Lightning strikes more than once in the history of fulminate. That word comes from the Latin fulminare, meaning "to strike," a verb usually used to refer to lightning strikes—it is struck from fulmen, Latin for "lightning." When fulminate was taken up by English speakers in the 15th century, it lost much of its ancestral thunder and was used largely as a technical term for the issuing of formal denunciations by ecclesiastical authorities. In time, its original lightning spark returned, describing intense strikes of a tirade.

populism 인터넷 출처. 평가 필요.

What Is Populism? Definition and Examples

Black and white illustration of a Grange farmers' meeting

 An 1867 meeting of the Grange, a farmers' coalition that often backed populist groups.

Photoquest/Getty Images

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By Robert Longley

Updated on January 26, 2022

Populism is a political movement that attempts to appeal to “the people'' by convincing them that its leaders alone represent them and their concerns that are being ignored by a real or perceived “elite establishment.” Since the late 19th century, the label “populist” has been applied to a range of politicians, political parties, and movements, often negatively by their opponents. 

Key Takeaways: Populism

Populism is a political movement that promotes the idea that its leaders alone represent “the people” in their struggle against the “elite establishment.”

Populist movements and political parties are often led by charismatic, dominant figures who present themselves as “the voice of the people.”

Populist movements are found on both the right and left extremes of the political spectrum.

When referred to negatively, populism is sometimes accused of encouraging demagogy or authoritarianism.

Since 1990, the number of populists in power worldwide has increased dramatically.

Definition of Populism

While political and social scientists have developed several different definitions of populism, they increasingly explain populist forces in terms of their ideas or discourse. This growingly common “ideational” approach presents populism as a cosmic struggle between the morally good “people” and a corrupt and self-serving group of conspiring “elites.”

Populists typically define “the people” based on their socioeconomic class, ethnicity, or nationality. Populists define “the elite” as an amorphous entity made up of a political, economic, cultural, and media establishment that places its own interests along with those of other interest groups—such as immigrants, labor unions, and large corporations—over the interests of “the people.”

The ideational approach further holds that these basic characteristics of populism are often found in other ideologies, such as nationalism, classical liberalism, or socialism. In this manner, populists can be found anywhere along the political spectrum allowing for both conservative and liberal populism.

Populist movements are often led by dominating charismatic figures who claim to act as “the voice of the people” in government. For example, in his January 2017 inaugural address, self-proclaimed populist U.S. President Donald Trump stated, “For too long, a small group in our nation’s capital has reaped the rewards of government while the people have borne the cost.”

In contrast to the ideational version, the “popular agency” definition of populism views it as an emancipating social force that seeks to help marginalized groups challenge well-established dominant ruling structures. Economists sometimes associate populism with governments that appeal to the people by undertaking extensive public spending programs financed by loans from foreign countries rather than by domestic taxes—a practice that can result in hyperinflation, and eventually, painful emergency belt-tightening measures.

When the term is referred to negatively, populism is sometimes used synonymously with “demagogy,” the practice of applying overly simplistic answers to complex issues in a flamboyantly emotional manner, or with political “opportunism,” attempting to please voters without considering rational and carefully thought-out solutions to problems.

Populism in the U.S.

As in other parts of the world, populist movements in the United States have historically claimed to represent the ordinary people in an “us versus them” struggle against the elite.

In the United State, Populism is thought to go back to the Presidency of Andrew Jackson and the formation of the Populist Party during the 1800s. It has since re-emerged with varying degrees of success in both the United States and other democracies around the world.

Andrew Jackson

Black and white illustration of Andrew Jackson waving to crowds

 Andrew Jackson waves to crowds on the way to his inauguration.

Three Lions/Getty Images

President from 1829 to 1837, Andrew Jackson was called the “People's President,” and was arguably the first American populist leader. Jackson’s presidency was characterized by opposition to earlier-established government institutions. He ended the government’s use of the Second Bank of the United States, then the country’s national bank, and called for disobeying or “nullifying” many rulings of the U.S. Supreme Court, arguing that “It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their selfish purposes.”

The Populist Party

Populism in the form of organized political movements in the United States has been traced back to 1892 with the emergence of the Populist Party, Also Known as the People’s Party. Powerful mainly in agrarian parts of the Southern and Western United States, the Populist Party embraced parts of the Greenback Party’s platform, including banning foreign ownership of U.S. farmland, government enforcement of the state Granger Laws controlling the prices charged by the railroads to transport farmers’ crops to market, and eight-hour workdays.

From organizing and speaking at rallies to writing articles about the party’s platform, women played an important role in the Populist Party even long before finally winning the right to vote nearly three decades later. The Populist Party supported the temperance and prohibition movement and stood for outlawing corporate monopolies and anti-consumer collusion, such as price-fixing. However, Populist leaders avoided appealing to black voters for fear of appearing anti-white. By promoting social and economic policies favored by both races, they hoped to assure white voters that they were not implying support for racial equality. Some influential party members in the South publicly supported the Black Codes, Jim Crow laws, and white supremacy.

At the height of its popularity, the Populist Party’s candidate for president James B. Weaver won 22 electoral votes in the 1892 election, all from states in the Deep South. Failing to gain support from northern urban voters, the party declined and had disbanded by 1908.

Many of the Populist Party’s platforms were later adopted as laws or constitutional amendments. For example, the progressive income tax system in 1913, and direct democracy through ballot initiatives and referenda in several U.S. states.

Huey Long

Known for his flamboyant oratory and charismatic style, Huey Long of Louisiana mounted the first successful populist political movement of the 20th century. From a seat on the Louisiana Railroad Commission in 1918, Long rode a wave of support boosted by his Great Depression-era promise to make “Every man a king,” to the governor’s mansion in 1928. Long’s popularity soared thanks largely to his efforts to end monopolies within the state, the most popular of which was his bare-knuckles fight to break up John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil.

As governor, Long cemented his control of Louisiana politics. He granted police more enforcement power, appointed his friends to head government agencies, and coerced the legislature to give him more power. He gained even wider public support by taxing the rich to fund education, infrastructure, and energy programs.

Long was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1930 while maintaining his power within Louisiana through his hand-picked “puppet” governor. Once in the Senate, he began planning to run for president. Hoping to spread his popularity, he proposes a national Share the Wealth Club, a plan to redistribute wealth and end income inequality. Using his newspaper and radio station, he offered a platform of poverty-fighting programs, which he claimed went further than Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal.

Though many favored him to win the Democratic nomination in 1936, Huey Long was assassinated in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, on September 8, 1935. Today, numerous bridges, libraries, schools, and other public buildings in Louisiana bear his name.

George Wallace

First elected governor of Alabama in 1963, George Wallace became known nationwide for his segregationist stance, especially highlighted by his attempts to keep Black students from entering the University of Alabama. In winning the governorship, Wallace had run on a platform of economic populism he claimed would benefit the “common man.” He went on to run unsuccessfully for president four times, first in 1964 as a Democrat against Lyndon Johnson.

Racism has been associated with some populist movements, and while he sometimes claimed his fiery anti-integration oratory was merely political rhetoric intended only to gain popular support, Wallace is considered to have been one of the most successful practitioners of this association. During his third run for the presidency in 1972, Wallace denounced segregation, claiming he had had always been a “moderate” on racial matters.

21st Century Populism

The 21st Century saw a burst of activist populist movements on both the conservative and liberal ends of the political spectrum.

The Tea Party

Appearing in 2009, the Tea Party was a conservative populist movement motivated largely in opposition to the social and economic policies of President Barack Obama. Focusing on a raft of myths and conspiracy theories about Obama, the Tea Party pushed the Republican Party further to the right toward Libertarianism.

Bernie Sanders

The race for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination featured a battle of liberal populist styles. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, an Independent who typically votes with Senate Democrats, opposed former Secretary of State and U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton. Though he ultimately lost the nomination, Sanders weathered criticism for his association with socialism to run a wildly popular primary campaign fueled by a platform promoting income equality and higher taxes on the wealthy.

Donald Trump

In the 2016 presidential election, millionaire Republican real estate developer Donald Trump, unexpectedly defeated Hillary Clinton, winning a majority of the electoral vote despite losing the popular vote. Using the slogan “Make America Great Again,” Trump ran one of the most successful populist campaigns in U.S. history. He promised to undo all of President Obama’s executive directives and federal regulations he felt harmed the United States, to drastically reduce legal immigration, to build a security fence along the U.S.-Mexico border to prevent illegal immigration, and to take a decidedly isolationist stance against other countries, including some U.S. allies.

Populist Ideals

The right or left political ideology applies to populism when it comes to the stances of populist movements and parties in economic and cultural issues, such as redistribution of wealth, nationalism, and immigration. Populist parties on the right and left differ in the primary aspects in which they compete. While right-wing populism competes mainly in the cultural aspect, left-wing populism does so mainly in the economic aspect.

Right-Wing Populism

Right-wing populist movements generally advocate for nationalism, social conservatism, and economic nationalism—protecting the nation’s economy from foreign competition, often through the practice of trade protectionism.

Overwhelmingly conservative, right-wing populists tend to promote the distrust of science—for example, in the area of global warming or climate change—and hold highly restrictive views on immigration policy.

Cas Mudde, a Dutch political scientist who focuses on political extremism and populism argues that the core concept of right-wing populism is “the nation.” Rather than “nationalism,” however, Mudde argues that this core concept is better expressed by the term “nativism”—a xenophobic expression of nationalism asserting that almost all non-natives should be excluded from the country.

In areas of social policy, right-wing populists tend to oppose raising taxes on the wealthy and large corporations to counter income inequality. Similarly, they typically oppose government regulations limiting the powers of private corporations to conduct business.

In Europe, right-wing populism is associated with politicians and political parties that oppose immigration, particularly from Muslim countries, and criticize the European Union and European integration. In the West, including the United States, right-wing populism is more often associated with anti-environmentalism, cultural nationalism, opposition to globalization, and nativism.

While they generally oppose social welfare, some right-wing populists favor expanding welfare programs only for a chosen “deserving” class—a practice known as “welfare chauvinism.”

Left-Wing Populism

A pile of Occupy Wall Street protest signs

 Occupy Wall Street protest signs from 2012.

Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Also called social populism, left-wing populism combines traditional liberal politics with populist themes. Left-wing populists purport to speak for the cause of “common people” in their socioeconomic class’ struggles against the “Establishment.” Besides anti-elitism, the platforms of left-wing populism often include economic equality, social justice, and—seeing it as a tool of the wealthy elite—a skepticism of globalization. This criticism of globalization is partly attributed to feelings of antimilitarism and anti-interventionism, which have grown more common among left-wing populist movements as a result of United States military operations like those in the Middle East.

Perhaps one of the clearest expressions of left-wing populism, the international Occupy movement of 2011 expressed, sometimes violently, how the lack of “real democracy” had led to social and economic inequality around the world. Sometimes wrongly accused of employing anarchist tactics, the Occupy movement strived to advance social and economic equality through the establishment of new forms of more inclusionary democracy. While its specific focus varied according to location, the movement’s main concerns included how major corporations and the global banking and investment system undermined democracy by disproportionately benefiting an elite wealthy minority. Unlike right wing populism, left wing populist parties tend to claim to support minority rights, racial equality, and the ideal that nationality is not defined exclusively by ethnicity or culture.

Overarching Populist Characteristics

Representative democracies, like the United States, are based on a system of pluralism, the idea that the values and interests of many different groups are all valid. In contrast, populists are not pluralist. Instead, they consider only the interests of whatever they believe to be “the people” as legitimate.

Populist politicians often use rhetoric intended to stir up anger, promote conspiracy theories, express distrust of experts, and promote extreme nationalism. In his book The Global Rise of Populism, Dr.  Benjamin Moffitt argues that populist leaders tend to depend on maintaining a state of emergency, in which the “real people” are perpetually threatened by either the “elite” or “outsiders.”

Populism’s ties to authoritarianism and its lack of trust in the established system tend to give rise to “strongman” leaders. This overarching populist sentiment was perhaps best expressed by the late Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, who once said, “I am not an individual—I am the people.”

Populism Around the World

Argentine president Juan Peron

 Argentine president Juan Peron represented one brand of Latin American populism.

Hulton Deutsch/Getty Images

Outside the United States, the number of populists in power worldwide has increased from four to as many as 20 since 1990, according to the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. This includes not only countries in Latin America and in Eastern and Central Europe, where populism has traditionally been prevalent, but also in Asia and Western Europe.

Once found mainly in newly emerging democracies, populism is now in power in long-established democracies. From 1950 to 2000, populism came to be identified with the political style and program of Latin American leaders such as Juan Perón in Argentina and Hugo Chávez in Venezuela. In the early 21st century, populist authoritarian regimes arose in European and Latin American countries, most notably, Hungary and Brazil.

Hungary: Viktor Orbán

After being elected to his second stint as Prime Minister of Hungary began, in May 2010, Viktor Orbán’s populist Fidesz, or “Hungarian Civic Party,” began steadily trimming away or diluting essential elements of the country’s democratic systems. Orbán is a self-proclaimed advocate of “illiberal” government—a system in which, although elections take place, citizens are denied facts about the activities of their leaders because of the lack of civil liberties. As prime minister, Orbán has imposed policies that are hostile to LGBTQ people and immigrants and clamped down on the press, the educational establishment, and the judiciary. Up for reelection again in 2022, however, Orbán will face six opposition parties ranging from the left to the far right, all formed specifically to depose him.

Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro

Far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro won the countries presidential election in October 2018. Some observers worried that Bolsonaro’s publicly expressed admiration for the brutal military dictatorship that ruled Brazil from 1964 to 1985, presented a clear and present danger to the hard-earned Brazilian democracy. Others assured that the nation’s aggressive press and strongly independent judiciary would squash any authoritarian policies he might try to implement.

The controversial Bolsonaro will face re-election in 2022, hounded by increasing criticism over his mishandling of the economy and the COVID-19 pandemic. Shortly before the country went on to suffer one of the world’s worst COVID-19 disasters, Bolsonaro had assured Brazilians that the respiratory illness was no more than “a little flu.” Operating on that politically-motivated misassumption, he opposed lockdowns in favor of keeping the economy open, disparaged masks, and voiced doubts regarding COVID-19 vaccines. The Brazilian Supreme Court recently ordered an official investigation over comments made by Bolsonaro on October 24, 2021, falsely claiming that taking the coronavirus vaccines could increase one’s chances of contracting AIDS.

Sources

Mudde, Cas. “Populism: A Very Short Introduction.” Oxford University Press, 2017, ISBN-13: 9780190234874.

Moffitt, Benjamin. “The Global Rise of Populism: Performance, Political Style, and Representation.” Stanford University Press, 2016, ISBN-13: 9780804799331.

Berman, Sheri. “The Causes of Populism in the West.” Annual Review of Political Science, December 2, 2020, https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041719-102503.

Kazin, Michael. “The Populist Persuasion: An American History.” Cornell University Press, October 29, 1998, ISBN-10: ‎0801485584.

Judis, John. “Us Vs. Them: The Birth of Populism.” The Guardian, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/13/birth-of-populism-donald-trump.

Kyle, Jordan, “Populists in Power Around the World.” Blair Institute for Global Change, 2018, https://institute.global/sites/default/files/articles/Populists-in-Power-Around-the-World-.pdf.

경제사 관련 책을 읽다가, 존 케인즈 별명을 알게 됨. 캠브리지 대학 시절 별명이 돼지코.
snout 를 찾아보니. 바구미 weevil 위빌이 나옴.
동사가 더 유용한 뜻이다. 코를 들이대며 뭔가를 탐색하다. 좋은 뜻이다.
고래나 동물들이 코를 킁킁대며 먹이감을 찾거나, 땅을 파거나 할 때, snout 뜻이다.

언어는 모든 인류사의 총 집결체이기 때문에, 사람의 실천을 담는 그릇이자, 미래 활동의 준비자이기도 하다.



snout
1 of 2
noun
ˈsnau̇t
Synonyms of snout
1
a
(1)
: a long projecting nose (as of a swine)
길게 뻗어나온 코. (돼지 코 같은)

(2)
: an anterior prolongation of the head of various animals (such as a weevil) : ROSTRUM
다양한 동물의 머리 부분 앞 쪽이 쭉 삐쳐 나온 것. 로스트럼 (연단)
Weevil 위빌. (바구미)

b
: the human nose especially when large or grotesque

사람 코가 크거나 괴이할 때.

존 케인스 John Keynes 사진.
코가 크긴 하다.

2
: something resembling an animal's snout in position, function, or shape: such as
a
: PROW
b
: NOZZLE
c
: the terminal face of a glacier


snouted
ˈsnau̇-təd
adjective
snoutish
ˈsnau̇-tish
adjective
snouty
ˈsnau̇-tē
adjective
snout


동사.

2 of 2
verb
snouted; snouting; snouts
intransitive verb

: to dig or search with or as if with the snout

코로 뭔가를 파거나, 탐색하다.

These whales feed by snouting around in soft ocean bottoms …

이 고래들은 부드러운 바다 바닥에서 코로 킁킁대며 뭔가를 탐색하면서 먹이를 섭취한다.



—Elizabeth Quill
The bear was on a low-level hunting mission … and snouted around for anything to fuel a furnace-like appetite …
—Danny Buckland
… help us to visualize precisely [Ignatius] Sancho stomping through his house, snouting about in every corner, pausing only to curse his increasingly irritating failure to track down the newspapers he is searching for.
—S. S. Sanhu

이런 시민 유랑 현상을 주택 시장 법칙이니 뭐니 어이없는 이야기로 넘어가서는 안된다. 시민 내전, 피란도 아니고 이게 도대체 무슨 넌센스인가?

집값 폭등에 떠밀렸나…경기도 작년 인구 1400만명 육박
입력 : 2023.01.29 13:27 

수정 : 2023.01.29 13:55최인진 기자


경기도 광교청사 /경기도 제공

경기도의 인구가 1400만명에 육박한 것으로 나타났다.

29일 경기도에 따르면 지난해말 기준 경기도 인구(행정안전부 주민등록인구+등록 외국인)는 1397만2297명이다.

성별 인구는 남자 706만6143명, 여자 690만6154명으로 남자가 16만여명 더 많았다. 내·외국인별로는 내국인 1358만9432명, 등록외국인 38만2865명이다.

경기도 인구 수는 시·군간 격차가 큰 것으로 확인됐다.

인구 순위 1위는 수원시(122만5058명)로, 2021년(121만6965명) 보다 8093명 늘었다. 이어 용인시(109만2294명), 고양시(108만8153명), 등의 순이다.

2021년 도내 인구 5위(92만2092명)였던 화성시는 지난해 94만9187명으로 2만7095명 늘어 성남시(2021년 94만5037명→ 2022년 93만6989명)를 제치고 4위로 올라섰다.

반면 인구가 가장 적은 곳은 연천군(4만3050명)이며, 이어 가평군(6만3235명), 과천시(7만8329명), 동두천시(9만5100명) 등의 순이다.

경기도 인구는 2016년 1300만명을 넘어서면서 매년 평균 1.3%(17만2000여명)씩 늘고 있다. 경기도 인구가 2002년말 1000만명을 넘은 점을 볼때 지난 20년간 400만명이 증가한 것으로 집계됐다.

경기도의 인구 증가는 출산 등에 따른 자연적 증가보다는 다른 지역의 인구 이동에 따른 사회적 증가가 더 많은 영향을 줬다는 분석이다. 경기도내 사업체 수 증가 현상도 인구 증가의 한 원인으로 지목된다. 일자리를 찾아 경기도로 이동한 인구가 많았다는 것이다.

경기도 관계자는 “경기도의 인구 증가 원인은 서울보다 상대적으로 싼 주택, 편리해진 교통망, 기업체 증가로 인한 일자리 증가 등 때문으로 분석된다”고 말했다.

deep sea  finishing  : an uneven contest
심해 어업. 불평등한 경쟁. 불공정한 경쟁. 이코노미스트 제목이다.
중국 원양어업에 대한 시진핑 정부의 보조금이 20억 달러. 이를 삭감하라는 요구가 있음.
오징어 어업에 대해 중국 원양어선 조업량 막대. 북서 인도양 . 오징어는 어업량 규제에서 배제된 어종임. 그런데 오징어를 먹는 튜나 Tuna 에 영향을 끼치기 때문에 오징어를 남획해서는 안된다.

원양어선 강국. 중국. 일본. 타이완. 한국 등.
이 중에서 중국 원양어선 배 숫자는 3600 척 정도 추산, 2위 3위 4위 국가들보다 합친 것보다 훨씬 더 많다.

바다에서 물고기 숫자와 어종이 사라지고 있는 현실.

1. 어종과 어획량에 대한 감시 필요

2. 중국 어선의 남획과 문제점을 보며 과거 스페인 포르투갈 네덜란드 영국 프랑스 독일 이탈리아 미국 일본 등 제국주의 국가들의 지구 자원과 인간에 대한 착취가 얼마나 심각했는지를 간접적으로 다시 일 수 있다.

이코노미스트 기사가 말한 불공정한 경쟁과 독점 현상이 지난 400년간 제국주의 강대국들이 행해온 정치였다.

2022.dec. 10. the economist.  p.55.

물고기가 많지  않다.

Nakjung Kim

Dec.3.2021

  · 
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중앙일보는 '윤석열', jtbc 는 '이재명'에 분산투자한 홍석현. 뉴욕타임즈 흉내내는 줄 알았더니, 그건 아닌 것 같고. WP도 아니고.

윤석열 대통령에 당선되는 줄 알겠다. 그래. 윤석열 대통령 당선되고, 주 120시간씩 화끈하게 일하자. 우리 진중권 교수님도 권경애 변호사님도 화끈하게 주 120시간씩. '집에서 놀면 뭐하냐 심심하던 차'에 김종인도 결합했고. 이준석의 '단종 애사' 놀이, 윤석열 수양대군과 한명회 윤상시들의 '준석 애사' 놀이도 싱겁게 끝났다.

 그런데 좀 미련한 드라마다. 설 전에 했어야 극적 드라마 효과도 높였을텐데. 중앙일보 '윤석열' 홍보부 vs jtbc 의 이재명 나름 비판적 지지, 최종 승자는 누구냐고? 홍석현 사장님이시다.

투자를 할 때는, 한 바구니에 몽땅 처 넣지 않고, 포트 폴리오 투자 정신으로, 분산하라. 이 시대의 게임 규칙이다.
판 벌이고, 싸움은 너희들 둘이서 하고, 막판 판돈만 수금이나 입금해 가면 된다.

독재자 이승만이 80회 생일에 대중들을 동원했다.

1955년 3월 26일. 성동원두 (동대문 운동장)

Seoul Stadium, Seoul, Korea. 1955

Photographer Unidentified

1955년 3월 26일. 성동원두 (동대문 운동장)

경향신문 1955.3.26일자.

조선일보 . 1955년. 3월 27일자 1면.