한국정치 노트 Notes on the Politics of Korea

2017년 독일 프리드리히 에버트 재단은 한국촛불 시민들에게 '인권상'을 줬다. 전범국과 패전국 멍에를 쓴 서독도 1949년 소위 '연동형 비례대표제도'의 원형인 '지역-정당 혼합형 권역별 비례대표제도'를 만들었는데, 전 세계가 인정한 참여민주주의 1위라고 해도 과언이 아닌 한국은 왜 후진적인 '선거제도'를 개혁하지 못하고 있는가? 민주당,자유한국당에도 결코 불리하지도 않는 '연동형 비례대표제도'를 민주당,자유한국당이 소극적인 현상도 상식적으로 이해불가하다. 

- 독일식 지역-비례 혼합 선거제도는 1949년 미-영-프 군정의 감독 하에 서독의회위원회가 초안을 작성하고, 각 주지사가 이를 수정하고, 군정이 승인 후 만들어졌다. 2차세계대전에서 승리한 연합국 군정이 가장 중요시했던 것은 ‘정치적 안정’이고, 서독 정치가들은 독일의 과거 선거제도들의 장단점을 수정하는데 애를 썼다.


(1) 연합국 군정, 특히 미국과 영국은 정당투표(비례투표)를 자국에서 채택해본 적이 없기 때문에 지역구 ‘승자 독식’ 투표제를 선호했지, 순수비례대표제도는 아니었다.


(2) 이에 반해 서독 (기민당, 사민당, 자민당,공산당 등) 정치가들은 지역구와 비례대표 비율을 1:1로 하고, 정당별 의석 숫자는 비례대표 투표율을 기준으로 결정하기로 했다. 현행과 같은 정당투표에서 5% 이상 받아야 의석배분 자격이 생기는 ‘5% 문턱 조항’은 없었다.


(3) 미-영-프 군정과 서독과의 타협: 연합국 군정은 서독 각 주(란트 Land)에서 ‘서독 의회 위원회’의 초안을 승인해야 한다고 주장했고, 각 주의 의견을 수렴해서 결정된 사항은


a. 비례대표 의석 배분은 전국이 아니라 각 ‘주별’로 하기로 결정


b. 지역구와 비례대표 의석 배분 비율을 1:1이 아니라 지역 60%: 비례 40%으로 결정. (1953년 개정안에 다시 1:1로 바꿈)


[참고] 독일 총선 제도는 1871년부터 1914년 (바이마르 공화국) 이전까지는 지역구 1등이 당선되는 단순다수제도였다.


1919년 바이마르 공화국은 순수비례대표제도를 실시했다. 1930년 총선에서는 히틀러가 이끈 국가사회주의 노동자당이 18.3%을 얻어 577석 중 107석을 차지 사민당에 이어 2위를 차지했다. 1930년 선거제도는 6만표 이상을 획득한 정당은 1석을 차지할 수 있었고, 그 이후 3만표 마다 1석을 추가시켰다.


(4) 특징: 첫번째는 역사적 경험에 근거해 있다. 1949년 서독이 채택한 지역구와 비례 혼합 제도는 독일제국(1871~1912)의 지역선거구 ‘단순다수제’와 바이마르 공화국 (1919~1932) ‘비례대표제’의 장단점을 보완했다고 볼 수 있다.


두번째는 서독 각 주별로 4개 정도의 정당들이 서로 경쟁할 수 있는 선거 제도를 만들려고 노력했다. 국가사회주의 노동자당의 히틀러 독재를 경험하고 제 2차 세계대전의 패전국 악몽을 경험한 서독정치가들은 1당 독재와 독점을 제도적으로 막기 위해서 4~5개 정당들이 경쟁해서, 3개 정당들이 당선될 수 있는 혼합형 지역-비례대표제도를 만들었다.


(5) 1953년 총선 방식 개정안: 왜 전국단위 5% 문턱조항이 만들어졌는가?


1949년과 달리, 정당투표용지 (2차 투표용지)를 따로 만들었다. 1차투표는 지역후보자, 2차 투표는 정당에 부여했다. 그리고 정당투표율 전국단위 5% 이상이어야 비례의석 배분 자격을 갖추도록 만들었다.


이러한 조항은 자유민주당(FDP)의 자기 이해관계 때문에 만들어졌다. 소수정당들 중에 상대적으로 힘있는 자민당이 다른 소수 정당들과의 경쟁에서 유리한 고지를 차지하기 위해서 기민-기사연합과 사민당과 연립정부를 만들 수 있는 우호적인 조건을 만들기 위해서였다. (전국 정당투표율 5% 문턱조항, 혹은 지역구 최소 1명 당선시 비례의석 배분 자격)


1953년 선거법 개정안은 지역 50%: 정당 비례대표 50%를 도입했다.


(6) 전국 5%에서 각 권역별 3%로 ‘문턱조항’을 낮추려는 시도가 좌절된 배경


1956년 선거법 개정 당시 사민당을 비롯 소수 정당들이 전국 5% 조항을 삭제하고, 권역별 3% 초과시 ‘의석’을 배분하자는 개정안을 냈다. 이와는 대조적으로 기민당(CDU)은 혼합형 비례대표제 대신 독일제국 당시 쓰던 ‘단순다수제’를 채택하자고 주장했다.


그런데 갑자기 기민당이 ‘단순다수제’ 당론을 철회하고, 다시 지역-비례 혼합형 제도를 찬성하자, 사민당 (SPD)이 다른 소수정당들을 버리고, 기민당과 연합해서 ‘전국 5% 문턱조항’을 승인해버렸다. 또한 지역 후보 3명 이상을 당선시켜야 비례의석 배분 참가자격을 부여했다.


소결: 아주 간략하게 독일식 '지역-정당 혼합형 비례대표제(연동형 비례대표제도)'를 살펴봤다. 한국 시민들은 한국 민주주의 실천을 밑거름 삼아, 창조적이면서 동시에 가장 '직접 민주주의 정신'에 걸맞는 선거 제도를 만들어내야 한다.



참고 논문: Matthew Soberg Shugart and Martin P. Wattenberg 가 편집한 책, 

Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds? 중 제 3장,

수잔 스캐로우 논문:  Susan Scarrow, Chapter 3 Germany: The mixed-member system as a political compromise 






표 설명: 2017년 9월 독일 총선 (연방의회) 결과에서, 지역구 후보를 뽑는 첫번째 투표자가 두번째 '정당 투표'에서는 어떤 정당을 투표했는가를 보여준다. 기민당 (CDU) 지역 후보에 투표한 유권자의 85.2%가 두번째 투표용지 (정당투표)에 다시 기민당에 투표했다.
사민당,기민당, 기사련, 아프데(AfD) 투표자들의 충성도는 상대적으로 높은 편이다.
그럼에도 정당투표가 전체 의석수를 배분하는 기준이 되고, 1차 투표 정당과 1차 투표 정당이 달라질 수 있도록 허용한 독일 제도는 '정치적 다양성' 추구라는 측면에서는 어느정도 발달된 선거제도라고 볼 수 있다.





독일 선거제도 연구가인 에크하르트 예세 (Eckhard Jesse:1988)는 1953년부터 1987년 연방의회 총선을 분석했다. 투표 용지 1 (후보)과 투표용지 2 (정당)를 비교했는데, 평균 편차가 기민-기사련의 경우 + 1.03, 사민당은 1.35, 자유민주당 - 1.91 등이다.






독일 선거 특징 참고 : 1949년부터 2005년까지 각 정당 의석 점유율 

검정: 기민-기사련 CDU/CSU 
빨강: 사민당
노랑: 자유민주당 (FDP)
분홍: 좌파당  ( 링케 Die Linke) 
녹색: 녹색당 ( Grünen ) 


Comment +0


1 온타리오 자유당 (Liberal Party) 캐슬린 위니가 인기가 추락한 이유들:


1) 2003년 이후 15년간 온타리오 주정부를 이끌어온 자유당에 대한 염증. 2018년 캐쓸린 위니 지지율이 초반 12%까지 추락. 

2017년 12월 여론조사에서 80%가 2018년 6월 온타리오 주 총선에서 정권 바뀌어야 한다고 생각.

 2003년부터 2013년까지 10년간 자유당 주지사 돌튼 맥퀸티의 실정(e-건강보험 10억 달러 적자, 각종 스캔들, 연고주의)을 극복하지 캐슬린 위니가 극복하지 못함.


2) 자신을 자유당내 좌파(Left-Liberal)이라고 밝혔지만, 2015년 공기업이었던 전기회사, Hydro One,을 민영화시키는 등, 실제 정책은 신자유주의에 가까웠음. 민영화 반대 여론은 당시 80%였음. 


3) 캐슬린 위니의 급작스런 ‘좌경화’ 2017년~2018년

그러다가 갑자기 2017년에 좌클릭을 했다. 11.4달러 최저임금을 2017년 1월 1일부터 14달러로 인상했고, 2019년부터는 15달러로 인상하겠다고 발표. 60%는 최저임금 인상 찬성 여론. 


4) 자유당 정부 15년 정책 실패 사례들


(1) 토론토 집값 폭등으로  월세 rentier 임차인들, 중소영세 상인들 불만 폭등:

(2) 시골 학교 폐교로 주민들 불만

(3) 최저임금 인상으로 자영업자들도 불만 표출

(4) 의사들은 fee rollback 등으로 불만
(5) 총기 사고로 인한 사망율 증가 (캐나다는 미국과 달리 총기 소유는 불법임, 토론토 시내 범죄 증가)



2. 사회적 보수 유권자들의 불만을 모아낸 더그 포드의 승리


온타리오 주에서 토론토에서는 Liberal 인 자유당과 사민주의 정당 신민주당(NDP)가 양분해 왔다. 그러나 2018년 6월7일 총선에서는 토론토 25석중, 보수당과 신민주당이 각각 11석, 자유당 3석만 차지했다. 보수당이 토론토에서 강세를 보였다. 


1) 더그 포드에게 유리했던 선거 지형과 정당 지지율

자유당 캐슬린 위니 정부이 인기가 추락해서, 2위 자리도 신민주당 안드레아 호애쓰에게 내줬다. 

더그 포드 선거 전략 적중:  더그 포드는 자기를 지지하지 않는 유권자들과 자유당의 대안으로 잠시 떠오른 신민주당 NDP에 대해서도 반신반의하는 유권자들을 파고들었다. 


2) 디테일하지 않고 조야하지만, 보수 지지층에 간결하고 피부에 와닿는 선거 정책 전달

더그 포드 선거 전략팀은 그를 미디어에 많이 노출시키지 않았다. 말 실수를 줄이기 위해서였다. 

그 대신 보수 지지층들이 좋아할 수 있는 정책들을 간략하게 집중적으로 밀어부침.

(1) 맥 주 가격 인하.  (buck_a_beer 정책: 최저가 맥주 1달러까지 내리게 하겠다) 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/08/doug-ford-beer-ontario-canada
(2) 유류세 인하 (1리터당 10센트 인하)

(3) 법인세 감축: 11.5%에서 10.5%로. 

(4) 중산층 소득세 20% 감세.
(5) 최저임금 시간당 14달러로 동결 (15달러 인상 계획 폐지 2019년). 

(6) 탄소세 도입 반대 

(7) 반-페미니즘 태도:  보수유권자들에게 호소력을 지닌 ‘16세 이하 여성이 낙태시 부모 동의를 받을 것’

(8) 긴축 재정과 복지 삭감 예정: 전통적 보수파에게 매력적인 '적은 정부' '균형 예산' 강조 - 전임 자유당 정부의 재정적자 비난, ‘균형 예산’ 공약

세금 낭비하는 큰 정부 비난. 

(9) 미디어 전략 : TV 토론에서 더그 포드가 흥분하지 않고 자제력을 발휘하면서 보수 유권자들이 지지를 이끌어냈다. 


3) 트럼프 따라하기


친-기업 정책을 내세우면서 트럼프-복제 선거 운동. 그러나 인종주의는 따라하지 않고 다문화주의 옹호. 


더그 포드는 도날드 트럼프 복제판이었고 강성 보수 우파 노선을 확실히 고수하면서 간결하고 강력한 메시지를 유권자들에게 전달했다. 우파 포퓰리즘의 승리였다. 


다만 트럼프와 다른 점은, 더그 포드는 외국인 혐오 노선은 취하지 않았고, 반대로 토론토의 다양한 인종들과 소통했다.

세금 감면 정책, 재정 예산을 감축하는 적은 정부 선포하는 등 전통적인 보수 우파 정책을 밀고 나감.


이러한  더그 포드의 친-기업, 적은 정부, 사회적 보수파 노선을 어느 유권자층이 지지했는가? 기존 더그 동생 로버트 포드를 지지했던 토론토 보수파 지지자들(이민자 포함) 과 시 외곽 소도시들 보수파 유권자들(주로 백인층)이다. 



참고 기사 


https://socialistproject.ca/2018/07/ontario-election-2018-right-wing-populism-prevails/



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-election-ontario-1.4696565


https://www.macleans.ca/politics/will-doug-fords-victory-be-a-lifeline-to-wynnes-liberals/


https://www.macleans.ca/politics/why-kathleen-wynne-is-still-so-unpopular/


https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/doug-ford-premier-1.4697453




https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-gas-plants-trial-mcguinty-staff-1.4493268








Ontario Election 2018: Right-Wing Populism Prevails Over Moderate Social Democracy

In the June 7 provincial election, Ontario politics took a sharp turn to the right as the Progressive Conservatives (PCs), under the leadership of the populist businessman and former Toronto city councillor Doug Ford, steamrolled to a majority government. The PCs took 40.5 per cent of the popular vote and 76 out of 124 seats in the Ontario legislature, putting an end to the 15-year reign of the Ontario Liberals. The Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP), under the leadership of Andrea Horwath, catapulted from their third-place position to Official Opposition, and received 33.6 per cent of the popular vote and 40 seats. Meanwhile, Premier Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals suffered a catastrophic defeat, receiving just 19.6 per cent of the popular vote and 7 seats – one seat below the threshold for official party status in the legislature.


The PCs last won an election in Ontario in 1999, when the right-wing government of Mike Harris – whose ‘Common Sense Revolution’ included large tax cuts, ‘workfare’, the weakening of trade unions and deep cuts in public spending – was re-elected with a second majority. By the 2003 election, however, the tide had turned strongly against the Tories and the party spent the next 15 years in opposition. 


During this period, the party was divided between those that wished to continue the Harris approach and those that sought to move closer to the political centre. In the most recent election in 2014, PC leader Tim Hudak, a right-wing ideologue, flirted with ‘right to work’ laws and promised to take the Common Sense Revolution further. His One Million Jobs Plan that called for the elimination of 100,000 public sector jobs in order to eliminate the province’s deficit, as well as the slashing of corporate taxes by 30 per cent in order to attract investment. Offering voters little more than hyper-austerity, the Tories again went down to defeat.


The PCs: The Triumph of Right-Wing Populism, Ontario Style


In the May 2015 leadership race, federal Conservative MP Patrick Brown prevailed over PC MPP and deputy leader Christine Elliott. In spite of Brown’s own socially conservative voting record and support from social conservatives in his leadership run, Brown quickly changed course and set out to remake the PCs as a socially liberal, centrist party that rejected ideological polarization and sought to govern for all Ontarians. In November 2017, Brown released his program, the “People’s Guarantee,” a rather centrist document that included a carbon tax and left much of the Liberal legacy in place.


With the Tories enjoying a wide lead in the polls as they headed into the election, Brown appeared well poised to be the next Premier of Ontario. However, Brown was forced to resign as leader in January in the wake of sexual harassment allegations. This led to another leadership contest that took place in March. In addition, Brown was accused of misappropriating party funds.


In announcing his leadership bid, Doug Ford stated that “I can’t watch the party I love fall into the hands of the elites.” Ford prevailed over ‘establishment’ candidate Christine Elliott, who had the support of most of the PC caucus. While narrowly losing the popular vote to Elliott, Ford won the leadership race due to a points system that weighted votes by riding.


The son of the late Doug Ford Sr., a Harris era MPP and founder of Deco Labels, a multimillion dollar company with operations in Canada and the USA, Doug Ford is a co-owner of the family business and has continued the family tradition of right-wing politics.


 He was also seen as the brains behind his brother, the late Rob Ford, the infamous mayor of Toronto elected on populist pledges of “respect for taxpayers,” stopping the “gravy train” at City Hall and ending the “war on the car” who later brought notoriety to Toronto worldwide when videos emerged of him smoking crack.


 Doug Ford entered politics in 2010 and was elected in the low income, multicultural ward in north Etobicoke that had previously been represented by his brother. Doug Ford acted as the ‘co-mayor’ of Toronto during his brother’s mayoralty, and stepped in to run for mayor when his brother received a cancer diagnosis. Ford lost the mayoralty race to the establishmentarian conservative John Tory, but received 34 per cent of the popular vote and carried the working class wards on the city’s periphery.


As a wealthy businessman who rails against the “elite,” Ford has inevitably drawn comparisons to U.S. President Donald Trump. While Ford had previously expressed strong support for Trump, he later rejected the comparison and dismissed it as a media fabrication. Like Trump, he is known for his refusal to be ‘politically correct’, denigration of expertise, hostility to the press and bullying behavior. Ford also has a long track record of misogyny


Yet in contrast to Trump and other right-wing populists, racism and xenophobia have not been a central component of Ford’s campaign messaging and Ford has received significant support in many ethnic and immigrant communities (in spite of his past links to, and continued support from, far-right circles).


In his pitch for the leadership, Ford spoke of his key role in his brother’s administration, making the dubious claim of having saved Toronto taxpayers $1-billion. He offered the PCs the ability to win seats in the city of Toronto, where the party had been more or less shut out since 2003 (though former city councillor Raymond Cho was elected as a PC MPP in a Scarborough riding in a 2016 by-election), as well as an ability to appeal to disaffected Liberal and NDP voters, blue collar workers and “populists” across the province.


With Brown out of the picture, the “People’s Guarantee” was declared null and void by all of the leadership candidates, with Ford leading the charge. Appealing to the right-wing base of the party, Ford railed against the implementation of a carbon tax and vowed to scrap the province’s cap-and-trade system (“cap the carbon tax and trade Kathleen Wynne”). And in an appeal to social conservatives, Ford pledged to “stand for parents” and repeal the province’s sex-ed curriculum (“Sex ed curriculum should be about facts, not teaching Liberal ideology”). Upon winning the leadership race, Ford declared that: “The party is over with the taxpayers’ money.”


Ford simplified the PC Party message (and laid it out under the sly platform title, For the People: A Plan for Ontario). Freeze the minimum wage at $14 an hour and instead eliminate the provincial income tax on incomes below $30,00 in order to provide relief to low-income workers. 


A 20% income tax cut for the ‘middle class.’ Cut the corporate tax rate from 11.5% to 10.5% in order to make Ontario ‘open for business’ and attract jobs. Lower gas prices by 10 cents a litre by cutting the provincial fuel tax and fight the implementation of any carbon tax by Ottawa. Respect the will of parents over ‘special interests’ and replace the sex education curriculum. Lower hydro prices by firing the CEO of Hydro One (“the six million dollar man”) and its board of directors.


In contrast to Hudak’s “100,000 jobs” pledge, Ford vowed that there would be no layoffs under his watch (“Let me be clear: No one is getting laid off”). Rather he would eliminate government waste simply by finding $6-billion in unspecified “efficiencies.” According to Ford, given the fiscal recklessness of the Liberal government, this was a modest goal that could easily be achieved. As he put it in the first leaders’ debate: “When I tell people, ‘My friends, we will find four cents on every dollar of efficiencies,’ they break out laughing. ‘That’s all you can find is four cents in efficiencies?’” In addition, Ford promised to balance the budget within his first term in office.


Ford was repeatedly questioned by his opponents and the media as to how specifically he would find ‘efficiencies’ without cuts to jobs and public services, but he repeatedly dodged the question, stating only that a costed platform would appear before June 7. The PCs released a partially costed platform just days before voting day (but not before promising “a buck a beer back to Ontario” – meaning it was legal for brewers to sell at that price).


An analysis of party platforms by economist Mike Moffat found that the PCs were the furthest away from a balanced budget among the parties. According to Moffat: “The promises add up to about $7-billion a year in tax cuts and spending. And it’s not clear where that $7-billion is going to come from.”


In addition to the lack of a costed plan, other controversies dogged the campaign, but they had little impact on the final result. For example, more than one quarter of PC candidates faced lawsuits or police investigations. And three days before the election, Rob Ford’s widow Renata Ford, filed a lawsuit against Doug Ford, alleging that he had mismanaged the family business and cheated Rob Ford’s family out of their inheritance.


Ford received a lukewarm reception in Ontario’s elite sectors, which would have preferred a smoother delivery from a more ‘generic’ conservative. The Globe and Mail, the main voice of the business establishment, refused to endorse its traditional party choice under Ford’s leadership. However, like the ‘never Trump’ movement among certain ‘establishment’ Republicans in the U.S., the impact was virtually nil.


While the PCs had a comfortable lead in the polls at the beginning of the campaign, Ford was seen as a liability to the party brand. The party’s decision to not have a media campaign bus was widely seen as a move to avoid media scrutiny. What looked like a cake-walk soon turned into a neck-in-neck race with the NDP. However, the PCs pulled ahead in the last days of the campaign, benefitting from anti-Liberal sentiment in the province and a sizable constituency of fiscal and social conservatives.


The Liberals: Out of the Game

In their 15 years in office, the Liberals have pursued an approach of ‘progressive competitiveness.’ While implementing some progressive social policy reforms during their tenure, such as full-day kindergarten, this was all done within in a broader framework of keeping Ontario ‘competitive.’ Corporate taxes were kept low, and Ontario maintained the lowest level of per capita spending among the provinces. The Liberals also showed a strong affinity for the use of private-public partnerships for financing investments in hospitals, transit and other infrastructure.


Kathleen Wynne was elected to the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party and became the Premier of Ontario in January 2013. A former school trustee who entered politics to fight Harris cuts to education, Wynne was first elected as a Liberal MPP in 2003 and went on to serve in several Cabinet portfolios in the government of Dalton McGuinty. The first woman premier of Ontario and the first openly gay premier of any province, Wynne was seen as a left-wing Liberal and expressed a desire to be remembered as the ‘social justice premier’.


In the October 2014 election, the Liberals reversed course from the austerity-focus of the McGuinty governments and campaigned on progressive planks such as taxing the rich, the establishment of an Ontario pension plan, and deficit financing to pay for major investments in transit and infrastructure. While the Tories staked out territory on the hard right, Wynne presented herself as a champion of activist government. The Liberals outflanked a rightward-shifting NDP on the left, which desperately sought to present itself as a party of fiscal responsibility. The ‘bury the NDP’ strategy proved successful, and the Liberals also benefitted from a ‘stop Hudak’ campaign led by the province’s unions. Wynne was able to overcome the scandals of the McGuinty era and led the Liberals to a majority government.


A year later, however, Wynne’s controversial decision to sell off a majority stake of the province’s publicly-owned electrical utility, Hydro One, in order to pay for infrastructure improvements, marked a turning point for her government. The Toronto Star provincial affairs columnist Martin Regg Cohn described it as “the biggest miscalculation of Kathleen Wynne’s time as premier.” The privatization was opposed by over 80% of the population, and Ontarians associated the privatization with skyrocketing electricity bills. And, despite the election’s progressive tones, Wynne governed in her first years in office with the same budget austerity as McGuinty and adopted the infamously neoliberal Drummond report as her policy reference.


But in her last year in office, Wynne again – and confusingly – shifted leftward. While previously lukewarm to the idea of raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, Wynne soon gave into pressure from the “15 and Fairness” campaign. In May, Wynne announced that the province’s minimum wage of $11.40 an hour would be significantly increased, rising to $14 an hour in January 2018 and again (if the Liberals were re-elected) to $15 in January 2019. The Liberals also implemented changes to Ontario’s labour laws, including card check union certification in certain sectors and supports for temporary workers and some measures to support equal pay for equal work. The Liberals also introduced a pharmacare program for all Ontarians under the age of 25, OHIP+.


In their election budget, the Liberals unveiled a universal childcare program for children aged 2.5 until the start of kindergarten that was widely praised by childcare advocates. It also called for investments in healthcare, mental health and transit. After achieving a modest surplus in 2017-18, the Liberals would return to deficit spending, with a projected six years of deficits. With the slogan “Care Over Cuts,” Wynne and the Liberals sought a repeat of the 2014 election strategy of marginalizing the NDP and presenting themselves as the progressive choice in a two-way race with the Conservatives.


The bump the Liberals received in the polls from the budget soon evaporated. With Wynne’s personal unpopularity and around 80 per cent of Ontarians wanting a change in government, the Liberals fell to third place.


While continuing their attacks on Ford and the Conservatives (“Doug Ford sounds like Donald Trump and that’s because he is like Donald Trump”), the Liberals soon turned their guns on the rising NDP as well. In a meeting with the Toronto Star editorial board, Wynne defended her record, stating that “We really, I believe, run the most progressive government in North America.” While maintaining that the Liberals and NDP shared “similar values,” the Liberals embraced “practical solutions” and did not “let ideology get in the way.” Wynne continued to attack the NDP for being too ideological and too beholden to unions.


In a stunning announcement on June 2, Wynne conceded that: “After Thursday, I will no longer be Ontario’s premier.” Conflating Ford and the NDP as equally risky, Wynne called for the election of as many Liberal MPPs as possible to block a majority government. Wynne maintained that voting Liberal would prevent either party from “acting too extreme” and from having a “blank cheque.”


Given her reputation as a progressive Liberal, it is difficult to believe that Wynne truly believed that an NDP government would be just as bad as a Ford one. However, an NDP victory was more likely to solidify their hold on the centre-left that the Liberals had traditionally occupied and prevent the Ontario Liberal Party from ever recovering. Wynne put the future of her party over the good of Ontario.


The NDP: The Orange Wave Fizzles


Andrea Horwath, a community organizer and city councillor in Hamilton before being elected as an MPP in 2004, has served as the leader of the Ontario NDP since 2009. Under Horwath’s leadership, the NDP, which had spent more than a decade in the political wilderness following the defeat of the unpopular government of Bob Rae in 1995, began to regain traditional levels of support.


Under Horwath, the NDP moved further away from traditional social democratic ideology. In the 2011 election, the party cracked 20 per cent for the first time since 1995, receiving 22.7% of the popular vote and 17 seats. The NDP showed further momentum by then picking up seats in four by-elections in Southwestern Ontario and Niagara region.


Rejecting what many saw as a fairly progressive budget, Horwath pulled the plug on the minority Liberals and forced an election in 2014. The NDP further alienated many of its traditional supporters and ran a populist campaign that positioned themselves to the right of the Liberals. 


Two of their central policy planks called for a Ministry of Savings and Accountability to find waste in government and tax cuts for small business. The NDP saw its popular vote increase modestly by 1 percentage point and took 21 seats, the same as before the election. The NDP picked up three seats elsewhere in the province, but three Toronto MPPs went down to defeat in an election that seemed to offer little for urban voters. Furthermore, the NDP now had less influence in the legislature as the Liberals went from minority to majority government.


In spite of the wounds of the 2014 election, Horwath made her peace with her critics in the party and easily survived a leadership review. Horwath shifted leftward in her rhetoric and promised to listen more closely to the party grassroots. In April 2016, the NDP belatedly came out in support of a $15 minimum wage, after previously rejecting such calls from activists in order to secure support from small business.


Seeking to avoid a repeat of the last campaign where they were outflanked on the left by the Liberals, the 2018 election platform, “Change for the Better,” moved closer to traditional social democratic positions. 


It focused on five key themes: (1) drug and dental coverage for all Ontarians; (2) end hallway medicine and fix seniors’ care; (3) cut hydro bills by 30% by bringing Hydro One back into public ownership; (4) take on student debt by converting loans to grants; and (5) making corporations and the wealthy pay their fair share.


“Change for the Better” moved away from the fiscal conservatism of the previous campaign, and run deficits over five years (though smaller than those of the Liberals). New revenues would come from increased personal taxes on incomes above $220,000 and an increase in the corporate tax rate to 13%. It included several positive reforms such as the end of police carding, covering 50% of municipal transit costs, and making it easier for workers to form unions. And certainly the calls for expanded social provision were welcome.


Yet however ‘bold’ the platform may have seemed compared to last time, many of the measures were very modest. The NDP’s childcare plan, for example, offered free childcare for families earning less than $40,000 and above childcare would average $12 a day based on income. 


Traditionally social democrats have prioritized universality in social programs rather than means testing. The dental plan was a complicated array of requiring employers to provide dental benefits and the establishment of a means-tested government benefit plan. The pharmacare plan would only cover 125 ‘essential’ drugs, with no specified timeline or plan on how to expand from there.

Considering the effort under Horwath to move the party to move to the political centre and present the NDP as a ‘government in waiting’, a surprising aspect of the campaign was that many of the party’s candidates had strong activist backgrounds. 


And there was more enthusiasm on the Left for the NDP in this election than there was in a long time. Activists that were traditionally skeptical of parliamentary politics, such as Rinaldo Walcott and Naomi Klein, as well as Desmond Cole, came out unequivocally in support of an NDP government to block a Ford government.

Horwath performed well in the first leaders’ debate, where she spoke strongly out against Ford’s claim to find ‘efficiencies’ (“efficiencies actually are cuts and people will pay the price in different ways”). 


The NDP soon pulled ahead of the Liberals, and by mid-May the NDP was neck-in-neck with the Conservatives. It seemed very possible indeed that the NDP could form the government. The Liberals were on the decline and among Liberal voters, an overwhelming majority had the NDP as their second choice over the PCs led by the polarizing Ford.


With its rise in the polls, the NDP came under greater scrutiny. An accounting error in the NDP platform meant that a projected $3.3-billion deficit in their first year was in fact $4.7-billion. While the NDP still had smaller deficits than those of the Liberals (and almost certainly the PCs!), this likely hurt their attempt to assure skeptics that an NDP government would be ‘fiscally responsible.’ 


The NDP also came under virulent attack from the Conservatives and the right-wing tabloid Toronto Sun (and similar papers across the province) that essentially served as an arm of the Ford campaign, with a focus on the “radical activists” who made up the party’s candidates (needless to say there was no mention of extreme right-wing candidates such as Andrew Lawton in London). And not surprisingly, the specter of the Rae government was raised, with Ford warning that an NDP government would “annihilate the middle class” and “bankrupt this province” and would be “ten times worse than the Liberals.


Horwath distanced herself from Rae (“We’re in 2018 now. This is not 1990.”). She came out strongly in defence of the NDP’s ‘radical’ candidates. She also strongly defended public sector collective bargaining rights in the face of attacks on the NDP’s ‘rigid’ opposition to the use of back-to-legislation (“It’s a pretty heavy hammer… it’s very much against our values”), and placed the blame for strikes in the postsecondary education sector squarely on the lack of government funding.


With the Liberals out of contention, many traditional Liberal voters turned to the NDP to stop Ford. The NDP received a key endorsement from the Toronto Star, the province’s largest circulating newspaper, which traditionally backs the Liberal Party.

In spite of the NDP’s rise in the polls, the party hardly galvanized Ontarians. 


While many voters were willing to give the NDP a chance, this support was soft and largely had to do with exhaustion with the Liberals, Horwath’s personal likeability and the deep unpopularity of Wynne. With a more popular program and inspiring campaign, the NDP may have been able to better deflect the attacks from the right, but instead they just seemed to feed the ‘not ready to govern’ narrative. The NDP was unable to dislodge enough residual support for the Liberals. Furthermore, the anti-Liberal narrative that developed over the past few years was mostly a right-wing one about bloated government and wasteful spending. The NDP had spent much of the Wynne period aiding this narrative rather than challenging it, and was unable to develop in such short time a compelling critique of the government from the left.


A Conservative Majority



The map of Ontario on election night was almost entirely blue and orange (see Table 1).

Table: 1Seat Count by Region
PCNDPLIBERALGREEN
Toronto11113
905 Belt264
Hamilton-Niagara27
Southwestern Ontario158-1
Eastern Ontario1123
Central Ontario8
Northern Ontario381
** Total (124) **764071



The PCs were able to obtain the majority by dominating suburban ridings across Ontario, particularly in the crucial Greater Toronto Area, adding to their traditional rural and small-town base. The NDP retained their traditional strongholds with a history of industrial trade unionism and class-based voting, and made significant gains in urban centres across the province. 


With the PC vote rising across the province, virtually all of the NDP pickups were in Liberal-held ridings (with the remainder being new ridings in an expanded legislature). The NDP came within 1,000 votes of defeating the Conservative candidate in 7 ridings (see Table 2). The Liberals, meanwhile, were wiped off the map outside of Toronto, Ottawa and Northern Ontario.



Table 2Ridings where the NDP came within 1,000 votes of victory
PCNDPLIBERALWin Margin
Ottawa West-Nepean16,59116,41514,809176
Sault Ste. Marie13,49813,0843,199414
Brampton West14,95114,4617,013490
Brantford-Brant24,08023,4595,439621
Kitchener-Conestoga17,00516,3196,035686
Kitchener South-Hespeler16,51015,7416,335769
Thunder Bay-Superior North5,39511,15411,973819
Scarborough-Rouge Park16,22415,2618,785963



In the city of Toronto, the NDP and Conservatives each won 11 seats out of 25 seats and the Liberals held out in three. 


The NDP swept the 8 ridings that make up the progressive, but increasingly gentrified city core, including the new, affluent riding of University-Rosedale and the previously ‘safe’ Liberal ridings of Toronto Centre and St. Paul’s (both of which had been vacated by their incumbents). 


This was a sharp contrast to the 2014 campaign where the NDP underperformed among urban progressives. This time, inner Toronto saw some of the strongest swings from the Liberals to the NDP (see Table 3).


Table 3NDP vote in selected ridings that changed from Liberal to NDP and change from 2014
Toronto Centre53.7%+34.2
Ottawa Centre46.1%+25.6
Toronto-St. Paul’s36%+25.5
University-Rosedale49.7%+25.4
Spadina-Fort York49.7%+23.0
Scarborough Southwest45.5%+21.9
Davenport60.3%+20.1
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas43.2%+18.3
London North Centre47.6%+17.6
Kitchener Centre43.4%+16.6

Meanwhile, the PCs took most of outer Toronto, winning ‘Ford Nation’ ridings in Scarborough and the city’s northwest and ridings that voted for John Tory municipally (such as Etobicoke-Lakeshore and Willowdale). In some ‘Ford Nation’ ridings (such as Scarborough North, represented by incumbent Raymond Cho and Ford’s own riding of Etobicoke North), the PCs received over 50% of the vote. 


Yet not all ‘Ford Nation’ ridings went PC. The NDP picked up three working class ridings (Scarborough Southwest, York South-Weston and Humber River-Black Creek) where they traditionally had a solid base of support but had been won by Ford municipally (and the NDP also came within 1,000 votes of winning in the new riding of Scarborough-Rouge Park which was strong territory for Ford municipally), while the popular Liberal Cabinet minister Mitzie Hunter narrowly prevailed in her riding of Scarborough-Guildwood.


 Kathleen Wynne narrowly held on to her riding of Don Valley West (the wealthiest riding in the province and one of the weakest areas for Ford municipally), while another popular Liberal Cabinet minister, Michael Coteau, was re-elected in neighbouring Don Valley East.

While the Liberals had won most of the suburbs of the ‘905’ belt that surrounds Toronto in 2014, this time the Liberals were shut out. The PCs won 26 out of 30 seats in this area and swept Mississauga, York and Halton Regions and all but one seat in Durham Region. The affluent northern suburbs of York Region swung especially hard toward the Conservatives, where they received over 50% of the vote. 


The working class, multicultural suburb of Brampton – bolstered by a beachhead established by federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh in his election as an MPP in 2011 – represented an exception to Conservative dominance of the 905 region, with the NDP taking three out of its five seats (and came less than 500 votes short in a fourth). The NDP also held onto a seat in the working class city of Oshawa, albeit by a much reduced margin.


The NDP dominated the Hamilton-Niagara region, which includes Horwath’s home city and is an area with a long-standing tradition of working class support for the ‘labour party.’ The NDP picked up St. Catharines – where Liberal MPP Jim Bradley, the longest-serving member of the legislature, went down to defeat – as well as the middle class seat of Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas.


Southwestern Ontario was marked by an urban/rural split, with the NDP maintaining the traditional labour stronghold of Windsor and expanding their reach in London and Kitchener-Waterloo, and the PCs sweeping the rural and ‘rurban’ seats. While the NDP under Horwath has put much effort into winning Southwestern Ontario, the party’s gains in the region were modest, picking just up one seat each in the urban centres of London and Kitchener (though the NDP also came within 1,000 votes in two other Kitchener area seats). 


Fordian populism resonated with many working class voters in the region. The Conservatives picked up Cambridge and Brantford (albeit by just over 600 votes over the NDP in the latter), and easily defended seats such as Sarnia-Lambton that were targeted by the NDP. Another notable development in Southwestern Ontario was the election of Green Party leader Mike Schreiner in Guelph, giving the Greens representation at Queen’s Park for the first time.

In Eastern Ontario, the PCs, to nobody’s surprise, swept the traditionally conservative rural areas. They also made modest gains in the Ottawa area where they won 4 out of 8 seats. The Liberal vote held up stronger in the National Capital Region than anywhere else in Ontario, and three incumbent MPPs were re-elected (the ridings of Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa South were the only ridings in the province that the Liberals won by more than 10 percentage points).


 In Ottawa Centre, socialist candidate Joel Harden defeated the province’s Attorney General, Yasir Naqvi, in a stunning upset (the NDP also came within 200 votes of the PCs in the riding of Ottawa West-Nepean). Another gain for the NDP in Eastern Ontario was the ‘university town’ of Kingston, a longtime Liberal stronghold.


The PCs swept the ‘cottage country’ region of Central Ontario, a traditionally conservative stronghold. The NDP won most of the seats in Northern Ontario, a region with a history of class politics and industrial trade unionism. It took two new ridings of Kiiwetenoong and Mushkegowuk-James Bay, established in the north to serve First Nations and francophone communities, and also gained the seat of Thunder Bay-Atikokan from the Liberals (by a margin of 81 votes!) 


However, the NDP lost its hold in the open seat of Kenora-Rainy River, where former federal Conservative Cabinet minister Greg Rickford was elected.. The PCs also narrowly prevailed over the NDP in Sault Ste. Marie (by 414 votes), a seat they took in a by-election last year. The Liberals narrowly hung on in the riding of Thunder Bay-Superior North (with the NDP losing by just over 800 votes).


The Ford electoral coalition thus included the traditional Tory base in rural and small-town Ontario, affluent suburbanites and much of the working class, as well as significant support from immigrant and racialized communities in the GTA. The NDP pulled together a cross-class coalition that comprised of a sizeable number of highly educated, ‘liberally minded’ professionals in urban centres and much of the ethnically diverse ‘new’ working class, in addition to their traditional working class and union base.


It is important to stress that a majority of Ontario voters oppose Ford and cast votes for more progressive parties. However due to the workings of the ‘first-past-the-post’ (or single-member plurality) electoral system, the Conservatives prevailed in a majority of the seats. The PCs clearly benefitted from vote-splitting between the NDP and Liberals. In 20 ridings alone, the combined NDP and Liberal vote exceeded that of the PC winner by a margin by at least 5,000 votes.


Challenging Ford’s ‘Populist Austerity’


Ford was sworn in as Premier on June 29. His slimmed down 21-member Cabinet includes the right-wing Vic Fedeli, who served as the party’s interim leader after the departure of Patrick Brown, as Finance Minister. Ford’s main leadership rival, Christine Elliott, was appointed as Deputy Premier and Minister of Health. 


Although Elliott has an image as a Red Tory, she tacked right during the leadership race and has long been an advocate of a greater role for the private sector in healthcare. Ford rejected appeals from First Nations leaders to retain a stand-alone Minister of Indigenous Affairs (a recommendation of the Ipperwash Inquiry). And in spite of Ford’s promise to diversify the PCs, Ford’s Cabinet choices were overwhelmingly white and male (just seven women and one racialized person) and drew heavily from rural Ontario.



In his first days in office, Ford has begun to quickly act on his agenda. One of Ford’s top priorities is lowering the gas tax, which would deprive the government of about $1-billion a year for transit and infrastructure. Ford also announced a public sector hiring freeze that will certainly cripple the ability of government to provide quality public services. 


The government has also made the decision to remove OHIP+ from young peoplewhose parents have private coverage, a setback in terms of the movement toward pharmacare. Ford has also moved to strengthen police powers, reversing new police oversight laws recently introduced by the previous Liberal government. And in a move pandering to their right-wing base and nativist sentiment, the Ford government has expressed its intention to withdraw from a federal-provincial agreement to help resettle asylum-seekers.


As Andrew Jackson has recently noted, “a major part of Ford’s base, like that of Trump, is made of disaffected and insecure working class voters who welcomed his message that he would stand up for them against the insiders and the liberal elites. He appealed to these voters with classic ‘pocket book’ promises to cut taxes and to lower the cost of living… 


These promises seem to have resonated more strongly than the expansion of public services promoted by the Liberals and the NDP, even though Ford’s promised tax cuts would primarily benefit the upper middle-class.” Certainly, Ford will have to implement drastic cuts to public services that working class Ontarians depend on to finance tax cuts. While Ford’s allure will likely wear off among ‘soft’ voters as he governs as a more ‘orthodox’ conservative than he campaigned on, progressives will have to make a renewed case for the importance of public services and collective provision over dependence on the market, and the taxes needed to finance them.


The NDP can be expected to speak out against many Conservative government policies. And several candidates with solid activist backgrounds, such as Joel Harden (Ottawa Centre), Jessica Bell (University-Rosedale), Jill Andrew (Toronto-St. Paul’s), Bhutila Karpoche (Parkdale-High Park) and Rima Berns-McGown (Beaches-East York), were elected, and these MPPs can articulate the demands of social movements in the legislature. 


Riding associations could be transformed into community action hubs rather than simply be electoral machines. However, the pressure to conform to the norms of parliamentarism will be immense as the NDP will seek to present itself to reassure more centrist voters and present itself as a responsible ‘government in waiting.’ 


With a large Conservative majority, however, the NDP will have little ability to reverse the overall course, and its parliamentarist focus, if its past actions are at all a guide to the present, will do little to support broad activist organizing across the province.


A broad-based resistance movement outside of the legislature to the hard-right Ford government is essential. A revitalized labour movement is key, as the ‘social unionism’ that led to the “Days of Action” in the Harris years has given way to an extremely divided and conciliatory, ‘business unionist’ approach across all unions (no matter what their rhetoric is). 


The $15 and Fairness campaign organized a rally in Toronto in defence of recent labour law changes (and attended by much of the NDP caucus). The Workers Action Centre has announced its attention to pressure 16 PC MPPs in ridings where a $15 minimum wage likely has broad support. 


As the Ford government will certainly prove disastrous for cities (and ‘efficiencies’ will certainly be found by downloading cuts to cities), municipal elections in Toronto and across the province this fall also represent opportunities to elect left and progressive candidates and begin to form a network of ‘rebel cities’ in opposition to the Ford regime. 


Perhaps, if stronger community-based infrastructure can take hold and revitalized social coalitions form, the labour movement in Ontario might yet again return to leading social struggles and the political space for a radical opening suddenly appear. •

Matt Fodor is a Ph.D. candidate in political science at York University.


1976년~2014년 캐나다 실업률, 온타리오 주 실업율 (주홍색) 




Comment +0


루이 필립 로숑 : Louis Philippe Rochon 경제학과 교수 기고문: 캐나다 자유당 트루도 정부 소득 불평등 정책 일관성 부족하다.


내용요약: 


캐나다 저스틴 트루도 정부의 소득 불평등 정책이 일관성 떨어지고, 혼선을 빚고 있다. 


저스틴 트루도 자유당 정부가 캐나다 부자들의 탈세 탈루 혐의(역외 탈세 Offshore tax evasion)에 대해 침묵하고 있다. 

부자 증세가 경제발전을 가로막지 않는데도 증세를 꺼리고 있다. 


자유당 정부가 부자들의 조세저항을 두려워하고 있다.하지만 그 부자들은 겨우 1% 인구이고, 많아야 10%이다. 


왜 저스틴 트루도는 캐나다의 소득 불평등 심화를 해소하는 정책을 적극적으로 강구하지 않는가? 


트루도가 현재 캐나다 소득 불평등 심화에 만족하거나, 원래 자기 개인적인 견해일 수도 있다. 하지만 이는 캐나다 사회와 경제를 위협할 뿐만 아니라, 캐나다 민주주의 제도 자체를 훼손한다. 지난 30년 동안 캐나다에서는 소득 불평등이 지속적으로 증가해왔다. 


현재 경제는 ‘이원화 경제 dual economy’ 체제이다. 인구 1% 부자의 이익에 도움되는 금융자본 경제가 하나의 경제이고, 노동자가 설 땅이 없고 노동권이 사라지는 ‘정체된 경제’가 또 다른 하나의 경제이다. 이는 지속가능하지 않다. 


현재 이러한 이원화된 이중 경제가 지속된다면, 캐나다 자본주의 체제와 민주주의 제도는 소수 부자가 지배하는 과두체제가 될 것이다.


버니 샌더스가 지적한대로, 한 나라를 넘어 이제 “세계적인 과두체제”로 퇴락할 수 있다. 상위 부자 1%가 정치 정당에 돈을 대고 정치를 쥐락펴락할 수 있게 되었다. 그 부자가 직접 한 나라의 재무장관이 되기도 한다. 이렇게 되면 사적인 부와 정치의 경계선이 흐려지게 된다. 그 부자 출신 재무장관은 부자 기업들에 부과되는 법인세를 낮추는 법안을 통과시킬 것이다. 


이런 이야기가 전혀 새로운 것은 아니다. 이제 더 뚜렷한 우리들의 현실 일상이 되고 말았다. 부자 정치가들은 그들이 알짜배기는 다 먹고 99% 사람들에게는 먹다남은 부스러기만 던져준다. 


저스틴 트루도 정부는 더 늦기 전에 소수부자 정치 체제,과두체제의 씨앗이 더 자라기 전에 강력한 정책을 써서 소득 불평등 심화를 막아내야 한다.




https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/opinion-rochon-canada-income-inequality-1.4408808

Time for Trudeau government to show leadership on income inequality


As the income gap widens, Canada is in danger of becoming a country ruled by the rich: Louis-Philippe Rochon


Louis-Philippe Rochon · for CBC News · Posted: Nov 18, 2017 12:00 PM CT | Last Updated: November 18, 2017


A 2011 Occupy Vancouver protest. Income inequality is increasing dramatically in Canada, says economics professor Louis-Philippe Rochon, and the government must act to halt it. (Jeff Vinnick/Getty Images)

The Trudeau government keeps surprising us all with its conflictual and incoherent approach to policy. Its latest flip-flop centres around an issue that has possible long-term consequences — income inequality.


While a few months ago, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was saying "The economy is doing well, people are doing well, and it's partially because we're removing some of the benefits for the wealthiest," tax reforms now seem to be going nowhere, and the government seems to be even turning a blind eye (again) to recent news of offshore havens for the wealthy.


CBC INVESTIGATESThousands more names and companies revealed from Paradise Papers

Morneau's latest 'step back' on tax proposals seeks to ease concerns from family farms, fishers

Trudeau: 'Wealthy folks' who would be affected by tax changes 'making a lot of noise'

Trudeau's reluctance to move on these changes is puzzling for two reasons. First, a plurality, if not a majority, of Canadians approve of taxing the wealthiest. Indeed, there is little doubt income inequality has become one of the biggest economic and political problems today.


Second, economic research is clearly showing that increasing taxes on the wealthiest Canadians will not hamper economic growth.


Income inequality hurts economy, study suggests

OPINIONIncome equality: The holiday gift Canada needs

Given these two arguments, the federal government's about-face is certainly puzzling and raises the question: why? Certainly, there was a backlash from those who would eventually pay higher taxes, but they are, by definition, the one per cent — or the 10 per cent. So why risk alienating a much larger proportion of the electorate in order to placate the one per cent?



Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks to members of the media as Finance Minister Bill Morneau looks on at a press conference on tax reforms in Stouffville, Ont., on Oct. 16, 2017. Trudeau's reluctance to move on tax changes is puzzling, says Louis-Philippe Rochon. (Nathan Denette/Canadian Press)

Perhaps it is for political reasons — or even for reasons rooted in Trudeau's own personal values, where rising inequality is an acceptable means to an unspecified end. But refusing to deal seriously with growing inequality poses serious threats — not only obvious economic and social ones, but also threats to our democratic institutions.


In the last three decades or so, inequality has clearly increased dramatically. We are now as unequal a society as we were back in the Depression of the 1930s. If governments don't start aggressively addressing the issue soon, we may reach a tipping point from which it will be difficult to retreat. 


2 richest Canadians have more money than 11 million combined

Poor Ontario families getting poorer: new report

Rich man, poor man: A closer look at Oxfam's inequality figures

Several years ago, while lecturing in Mexico, I spoke of the "dual economy" — an old concept — and of how there seems to be a new economic structure emerging: a thriving financial economy serving the one per cent (of the one tenth of the one per cent), and a stagnant economy where workers are losing ground every day and labour rights are disappearing.


The question I posed to the audience at the time was, "Is this sustainable?" In other words, can our economic system persist with ever-increasing inequality and such flagrant social and economic disparities?


The answer depends on how you define sustainable. I believe it can sustain itself, but it will be under a different configuration, one that is profoundly undemocratic.


A move toward government by the rich

Indeed, if it continues, we will continue to witness the slow transformation of our capitalist and democratic system into an oligarchical system, where the very few rich control the political and economic levers of society. A few days ago, Bernie Sanders warned us about the "the rapid movement toward global oligarchy."


If you think I am exaggerating, well, consider that the same sentiment was echoed in 2014 by economics Nobel Laureate Robert Solow: "If that kind of concentration of wealth continues, then we get to be more and more an oligarchical country, a country that's run from the top."


Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman made the same observation at around the same time.



Fromer Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders is among those who have warned of 'the rapid movement toward global oligarchy.' Louis-Philippe Rochon argues, 'In many ways, we have already become a system where the rich govern themselves.' (Jason Redmond/Getty Images)

Those in the top one per cent end up ruling our political parties and systems — they fund our political parties, and attend fundraisers that give them access to our political leaders. In some cases, they become a minister of finance or treasury secretary. The line that divides politics from private financial wealth becomes murkier and murkier. They then adopt laws that reduce taxation on corporations, and reduce taxation on the very rich.


Cash for access fundraising law should be widened, says ethics commissioner

ANALYSISTrouble in paradise: Justin Trudeau's rich friends keep making things awkward

In many ways, we have already become a system where the rich govern themselves. This may not be a new argument, but it is one that is becoming all too real.


Every so often, they throw crumbs to placate the 99 per cent. After all, a system that needs to sustain itself requires a stable core.  


The Trudeau government must now show true leadership and deal with inequality in a forceful and decisive way before it is too late, and before they encourage the seeds of oligarchy to grow even more.


This column is part of CBC's Opinion section. For more information about this section, please read this editor's blog and our FAQ.



ABOUT THE AUTHOR


Louis-Philippe Rochon


Louis-Philippe Rochon is a professor of economics at Laurentian University and co-editor of the Review of Keynesian Economics. He is currently on sabbatical at the Universite de Grenoble-Alpes.



과두 체제 寡頭 體制 - Oligarchy


Comment +0


124석이 달린 6월 총선에서, 온타리오 주 보수당이 과반을 넘는 76석을 차지, 단독 주정부를 수립했다. 캐나다 보수당 당명은 진보보수당 (Progressive Conservative)이다. 캐나다 온타리오 주 총선 방식은 소선거구 '승자독식' 제도이다. 보수당 득표율은 40.63%, 지난 주정부였던 자유당 (리버럴 Liberal) 은 득표는 19.3%를 했으나 7석을 차지해 폭락했다. 사회민주당으로 분류될 수 있는 신민주당 (NDP)은 33.69% 득표율로 40석을 차지, 공식적인 제 1 야당이 되었다.

녹색당은 토론토 외곽 도시 구엘프 (Guelph)에서 1명 당선자를 배출했다. 전체 득표율은 4.62%였다.   


'We have taken back Ontario': Doug Ford leads PCs to majority government


Wynne resigns as Liberal leader, Greens elect first MPP in Guelph


Lucas Powers · CBC News · Posted: Jun 07, 2018 7:29 PM ET | Last Updated: June 9


Ontario's incoming premier, Doug Ford, helped his party secure a substantial majority government after less than three months at the helm. (Carlo Allegri/Reuters)


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-election-vote-ford-horwath-wynne-pc-ndp-liberal-green-1.4696736


Led by Doug Ford, Ontario's Progressive Conservatives secured a considerable majority government on Thursday, handily defeating the rival New Democrats and ending nearly 15 years of Liberal power in the province.


Andrea Horwath's NDP will form the Official Opposition at the legislature, while the embattled Liberals suffered a historic rebuke from voters. The Grits lost the vast majority of their seats at Queen's Park and earned their lowest-ever share of the popular vote. 


Shortly after results were announced, Kathleen Wynne revealed she will resign as Liberal leader, as her party failed to pick up the eight seats necessary to maintain official party status. 


ANALYSIS | Magic of 'simple' message led to Ford victory

Wynne ready to 'pass the torch,' quits as Ontario Liberal leader

Buoyed by Ford — a one-term Toronto city councillor and businessman — the PCs ran a populist campaign long on commitments but short on fiscal details, promising a tax cut for the middle class and corporations and a drastic reduction in the price of hydro and gasoline.


The PCs were the only party that did not release a fully costed platform prior to election day.


Riding a wave of entrenched anti-Liberal sentiment, the Tories managed to win 76 seats, up from the 27 they held when the campaign kicked off in May. 


"My friends, this victory belongs to you. This victory belongs to the people. And tonight, the people of Ontario have spoken," Ford said in a speech to supporters at an event in Toronto. He opted to toss tradition out the window and speak before his unsuccessful rivals. 


Results | Follow all of the developments here after polls close

How to watch | CBC News Ontario election coverage

Ontario Votes 2018 | Complete coverage here

"I promised to deliver a strong, stable majority government and together we did that. Together we made history. We have taken back Ontario, we have delivered a government that is for the people," he continued.


"A new day has dawned in Ontario — a day of opportunity, a day of prosperity and a day of growth."



CBC News Toronto

2018 Ontario election in 90 seconds

   WATCH  

00:00 01:27   



This is the 2018 Ontario election in 90 seconds. 1:27

With all polls reporting, voter turnout was about 58 per cent, the strongest showing in the province since 1999. 


Ford easily won his seat in Etobicoke North, the symbolic heartland of "Ford Nation," the term given to an unwavering core of supporters, many of whom also backed his late brother, former Toronto mayor Rob Ford. 


In his victory speech, Ford became emotional as he thanked his brother.



Ford was easily elected in his riding of Etobicoke North. (Carlo Allegri/Reuters)

"I know my brother Rob is looking down from heaven. I'm just getting chills talking about him right now. I know Rob is celebrating with us tonight. We owe so much to Rob's legacy," Ford said. 


The PCs made significant gains in the 905 and throughout the Greater Toronto Area, regions that are critical to the political landscape in Ontario because the number of seats that are concentrated within them.


"Tonight we have a sent a clear message to the world: Ontario is open for business," Ford said in his address. 


As was expected, Horwath held onto her seat in Hamilton Centre, where she has served as an MPP since 2004. Heading into election day, polls suggested that the NDP had a slim chance of eking out a win. While such an improbable scenario never materialized, the New Democrats managed to take 40 seats, up from the 18 they held when the campaign began. 



CBC News Toronto

Doug Ford: 'We have taken back Ontario'

   WATCH  

00:00 00:46   



PC Leader Doug Ford addresses crowd at his headquarters in Etobicoke on election night. 0:46

"I could not be more proud that we offered a positive vision: change for the better. New Democrats rejected the politics of fear and cynicism, and we put hope and vision for a better future at the heart of our campaign," Horwath told supporters in Hamilton. 


"Together, we won more seats than we have held in a generation. And I am deeply humbled that Ontarians have asked us to serve as the new Official Opposition."


The election results represent a marked turnaround for the NDP, a party that has consistently found itself in third place since Bob Rae's government was defeated in 1995. 


Meanwhile, in a historic first for Ontario, Green party Leader Mike Schreiner has won a seat in Guelph. 


   RESUME PLAYBACK  

00:04 00:57   



NDP leader addresses crowed on election night in Hamilton. 0:57

Wynne resigns as Liberal leader

Wynne, Ontario's first female and openly LGBT premier, was re-elected in Don Valley West, though the race was much tighter than it has been in previous years.


However her incumbent Liberals, who had enjoyed a majority since 2014, suffered a stunning collapse. The party only managed to secure seven seats, which means they have lost official party status in the Legislature. They were also nearly wiped off the political map in Toronto, an area that was key to their majority. 


Similarly, in terms of the popular vote, it was the Liberal's worst showing in the party's history, with a 19.6 per cent vote share. It has never before finished with less than 20 per cent of the popular vote. 


LIVE BLOG RECAPDoug Ford's PC majority, as it happened

Kathleen Wynne ready to 'pass the torch,' quits as Ontario Liberal leader

NDP to lead opposition in a 'very divided province'

Several prominent Liberals who served as cabinet ministers under Wynne lost their seats, including Charles Sousa, Yasir Naqvi, Steven Del Duca and Glenn Thibeault.


The trouncing was foreshadowed last weekend, when Wynne took the extraordinary step of admitting publicly that she would not be Ontario's premier after the vote. With defeat imminent, she encouraged voters to elect Liberals to ensure the next government is kept "in check."


She struck a tone of gratitude in her last major address at the helm of the Liberal party. 


"This is not a concession speech — I conceded days ago. This is my chance to say thank you for allowing me to be premier, allowing me to connect with so many of you the last five years" Wynne told supporters on Thursday night. 



CBC News Toronto

Kathleen Wynne resigns as Ontario Liberal Leader

   WATCH  

00:00 00:30   



Kathleen Wynne announces she has resigned as Ontario Liberal Leader. 0:30

She then announced that she will resign as leader.


"There is another generation, and I am passing the torch to that generation," Wynne said as she fought back tears. 


"I know that tonight is not the result we were looking for and no one feels that more sharply than I do, but this is not a moment where any of us should linger. We can't stay here," she continued. 


"I hope that you can feel very proud of what we have done together in the past and absolutely determined to take on the task that lies ahead."


The PCs' election victory comes after a memorable and at-times vicious campaign that pitted the Tories against the NDP. The month-long slog proved difficult for Ford and some of his candidates. What began as a commanding lead in public opinion polls steadily narrowed over the month-long battle.


Ford, unaccustomed to the scrutiny that a provincial campaign draws, faced down multiple controversies and alleged scandals. One his former candidates was forced to resign over his alleged links to a data breach at the company who operates Ontario's Highway 407. 


And three days before the election, the widow of his late brother, former Toronto mayor Rob Ford, sued the Tory leader. The suit claims Ford withheld money from her and her two children, and that Ford's Toronto- and Chicago-based businesses are bleeding money.


Ontario PCs dominating Toronto's suburbs and 905, NDP swipes urban seats

Historic win for Green Leader Mike Schreiner in Guelph

Under Ford, the PCs recaptured the province they have not led since 2003, overcoming the failings of the past three elections that saw them unable to defeat the Liberals. In some cases those campaigns were sunk before they barely got off the ground with promises to fund religious schools or cut 100,000 public sector jobs.


Ford took the reins of the party less than three months ago, winning the leadership race on the third ballot after former leader Patrick Brown abruptly resigned.



PC 2,322,422 40.63%

NDP 1,925,574 33.69%

LIB 1,103,283 19.30%

GRN 263,987 4.62%













https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/results/



RidingStatusVote Margin
AJAX
42/42 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
3,948 votes
ALGOMA-MANITOULIN
111/111 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
9,245 votes
AURORA-OAK RIDGES-RICHMOND HILL
54/54 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
15,496 votes
BARRIE-INNISFIL
36/36 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
9,468 votes
BARRIE-SPRINGWATER-ORO-MEDONTE
68/68 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
7,554 votes
BAY OF QUINTE
88/88 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
8,189 votes
BEACHES-EAST YORK
43/43 polls reported
NDP
leads
LIB*
10,584 votes
BRAMPTON CENTRE
48/48 polls reported
NDP
leads
PC
89 votes
BRAMPTON EAST
30/30 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
4,975 votes
BRAMPTON NORTH
33/33 polls reported
NDP
leads
PC
497 votes
BRAMPTON SOUTH
50/50 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
2,733 votes
BRAMPTON WEST
26/26 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
490 votes
BRANTFORD-BRANT
59/59 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
621 votes
BRUCE-GREY-OWEN SOUND
100/100 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
15,028 votes
BURLINGTON
90/90 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
7,440 votes
CAMBRIDGE
76/76 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
2,154 votes
CARLETON
38/38 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
14,490 votes
CHATHAM-KENT-LEAMINGTON
96/96 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
7,512 votes
DAVENPORT
52/52 polls reported
NDP
leads
LIB*
19,051 votes
DON VALLEY EAST
67/67 polls reported
LIB*
leads
PC
1,027 votes
DON VALLEY NORTH
86/86 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
5,443 votes
DON VALLEY WEST
53/53 polls reported
LIB*
leads
PC
181 votes
DUFFERIN-CALEDON
56/56 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
18,320 votes
DURHAM
60/60 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
9,320 votes
EGLINTON-LAWRENCE
77/77 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
752 votes
ELGIN-MIDDLESEX-LONDON
74/74 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
12,341 votes
ESSEX
59/59 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
3,323 votes
ETOBICOKE CENTRE
82/82 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
4,724 votes
ETOBICOKE-LAKESHORE
72/72 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
3,201 votes
ETOBICOKE NORTH
41/41 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
9,845 votes
FLAMBOROUGH-GLANBROOK
56/56 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
4,824 votes
GLENGARRY-PRESCOTT-RUSSELL
101/101 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
4,523 votes
GUELPH
80/80 polls reported
GRN
leads
PC
14,998 votes
HALDIMAND-NORFOLK
64/64 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
15,280 votes
HALIBURTON-KAWARTHA LAKES-BROCK
99/99 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
17,396 votes
HAMILTON CENTRE
55/55 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
18,136 votes
HAMILTON EAST-STONEY CREEK
48/48 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
9,884 votes
HAMILTON MOUNTAIN
42/42 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
11,515 votes
HAMILTON WEST-ANCASTER-DUNDAS
87/87 polls reported
NDP
leads
PC
6,727 votes
HASTINGS-LENNOX AND ADDINGTON
93/93 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
8,179 votes
HUMBER RIVER-BLACK CREEK
50/50 polls reported
NDP
leads
PC
2,206 votes
HURON-BRUCE
100/100 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
12,320 votes
KANATA-CARLETON
53/53 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
7,928 votes
KENORA-RAINY RIVER
106/106 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP*
2,190 votes
KING-VAUGHAN
53/53 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
17,124 votes
KINGSTON AND THE ISLANDS
88/88 polls reported
NDP
leads
LIB*
6,385 votes
KITCHENER CENTRE
66/66 polls reported
NDP
leads
PC
7,442 votes
KITCHENER-CONESTOGA
50/50 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
686 votes
KITCHENER SOUTH-HESPELER
52/52 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
769 votes
LAMBTON-KENT-MIDDLESEX
77/77 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
11,086 votes
LANARK-FRONTENAC-KINGSTON
91/91 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
10,845 votes
LEEDS-GRENVILLE-THOUSAND ISLANDS AND RIDEAU LAKES
96/96 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
20,327 votes
LONDON-FANSHAWE
49/49 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
11,753 votes
LONDON NORTH CENTRE
88/88 polls reported
NDP
leads
PC
9,056 votes
LONDON WEST
68/68 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
15,511 votes
MARKHAM-STOUFFVILLE
47/47 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
11,905 votes
MARKHAM-THORNHILL
42/42 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
9,783 votes
MARKHAM-UNIONVILLE
45/45 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
20,850 votes
MILTON
41/41 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
5,177 votes
MISSISSAUGA CENTRE
105/105 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
5,814 votes
MISSISSAUGA EAST-COOKSVILLE
67/67 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
4,742 votes
MISSISSAUGA-ERIN MILLS
47/47 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
6,751 votes
MISSISSAUGA-LAKESHORE
61/61 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
3,884 votes
MISSISSAUGA-MALTON
32/32 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
2,362 votes
MISSISSAUGA-STREETSVILLE
34/34 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
8,486 votes
NEPEAN
48/48 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
8,809 votes
NEWMARKET-AURORA
58/60 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
11,561 votes
NIAGARA CENTRE
65/65 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
3,285 votes
NIAGARA FALLS
89/89 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
9,035 votes
NIAGARA WEST
66/66 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
10,617 votes
NICKEL BELT
57/57 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
15,139 votes
NIPISSING
81/81 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
4,604 votes
NORTHUMBERLAND-PETERBOROUGH SOUTH
113/113 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
12,574 votes
OAKVILLE
77/79 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
15,321 votes
OAKVILLE NORTH-BURLINGTON
41/41 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
12,182 votes
ORLÉANS
57/57 polls reported
LIB*
leads
PC
2,463 votes
OSHAWA
52/52 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
1,607 votes
OTTAWA CENTRE
122/122 polls reported
NDP
leads
LIB*
8,564 votes
OTTAWA SOUTH
71/71 polls reported
LIB*
leads
PC
5,464 votes
OTTAWA-VANIER
115/115 polls reported
LIB*
leads
NDP
6,323 votes
OTTAWA WEST-NEPEAN
80/80 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
176 votes
OXFORD
71/71 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
13,235 votes
PARKDALE-HIGH PARK
78/78 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
22,586 votes
PARRY SOUND-MUSKOKA
102/102 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
12,270 votes
PERTH-WELLINGTON
59/59 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
9,351 votes
PETERBOROUGH-KAWARTHA
104/104 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
2,194 votes
PICKERING-UXBRIDGE
56/56 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
5,418 votes
RENFREW-NIPISSING-PEMBROKE
102/102 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
25,284 votes
RICHMOND HILL
67/67 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
10,116 votes
ST. CATHARINES
60/60 polls reported
NDP
leads
PC
1,558 votes
SARNIA-LAMBTON
78/78 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
7,806 votes
SAULT STE. MARIE
62/62 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
414 votes
SCARBOROUGH-AGINCOURT
50/50 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
8,135 votes
SCARBOROUGH CENTRE
86/86 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
1,990 votes
SCARBOROUGH-GUILDWOOD
69/69 polls reported
LIB*
leads
PC
81 votes
SCARBOROUGH NORTH
45/45 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
8,493 votes
SCARBOROUGH-ROUGE PARK
42/42 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
963 votes
SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST
63/63 polls reported
NDP
leads
PC
6,159 votes
SIMCOE-GREY
60/60 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
20,650 votes
SIMCOE NORTH
76/76 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
10,255 votes
SPADINA-FORT YORK
121/121 polls reported
NDP
leads
LIB*
12,907 votes
STORMONT-DUNDAS-SOUTH GLENGARRY
87/87 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
17,364 votes
SUDBURY
95/95 polls reported
NDP
leads
PC
9,000 votes
THORNHILL
71/71 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
19,755 votes
THUNDER BAY-ATIKOKAN
73/73 polls reported
NDP
leads
LIB*
81 votes
THUNDER BAY-SUPERIOR NORTH
89/89 polls reported
LIB*
leads
NDP
819 votes
TIMISKAMING-COCHRANE
89/89 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
10,645 votes
TIMMINS
37/37 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
4,344 votes
TORONTO CENTRE
84/84 polls reported
NDP
leads
LIB*
11,702 votes
TORONTO-DANFORTH
47/47 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
24,807 votes
TORONTO-ST. PAUL'S
51/51 polls reported
NDP
leads
LIB*
1,348 votes
UNIVERSITY-ROSEDALE
78/78 polls reported
NDP
leads
LIB*
13,639 votes
VAUGHAN-WOODBRIDGE
38/38 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
7,945 votes
WATERLOO
68/68 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
10,342 votes
WELLINGTON-HALTON HILLS
57/57 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
17,572 votes
WHITBY
56/56 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
5,909 votes
WILLOWDALE
119/119 polls reported
PC
leads
LIB*
6,917 votes
WINDSOR-TECUMSEH
72/72 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
13,546 votes
WINDSOR WEST
72/72 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
9,203 votes
YORK CENTRE
81/81 polls reported
PC
leads
NDP
9,817 votes
YORK-SIMCOE
52/52 polls reported
PC*
leads
NDP
15,395 votes
YORK SOUTH-WESTON
74/74 polls reported
NDP
leads
PC
1,168 votes
KIIWETINOONG
52/52 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
1,494 votes
MUSHKEGOWUK-JAMES BAY
25/30 polls reported
NDP*
leads
PC
1,996 votes
* incumbent party
 elected



Comment +0


판빙빙 같은 대재산가는 중국에서도 소수일 것이다. 그러나 이번 판빙빙 (범빙빙) 탈세 탈루 사건은 사회주의와 공산주의를 표방하는 중국의 '소유' 관계의 진면목을 드러내준 사건이기도 하다. 

중국 국세청은 판빙빙에게 1억 3000만 달러 상당 세금과 벌금을 매겼다. 이를 납부하기 위해 판빙빙이 아파트 41채를 매각하고, 164억 상당의  약혼자 자택도 팔았다고 한다.

이것을 중국형 사회주의의 장점이라고 봐야 하는가, 아니면 단점이라고 봐야 하는가?

중국 빈부 격차의 심각성을 알 수 있는 판빙빙 탈세 사건이었다.



-----------------------


판빙빙, 벌금 1400억 내기 위해 아파트 41채 처분



Posted : 2018-10-06 10:20

탈세 혐의로 중국 당국의 세무 조사를 받은 판빙빙이 1450억 원의 세금과 벌금을 내기 위해 아파트 41채를 한 번에 내놨다.


홍콩언론에 따르면, 판빙빙은 70억 위안, 우리나라 돈으로 약 1조 1500억 원에 이르는 재산가이지만 단기간에 1450억을 현금을 마련하기 위해 자신이 가진 부동산 일부를 급매물로 내놓았다고 전했다.


지난 8월부터 베이징 부동산 시장에 한 번에 나온 41채의 아파트 매물이 판빙빙 소유일 가능성이 높다. 이 매물들은 일괄 구매 조건으로 시가보다 30% 싸게 내놓았지만, 전체 가치는 납부액보다 비싼 1640억 원이다.


판빙빙의 약혼자 배우 리천도 베이징 중심가에 있는 자신의 자택을 내놓은 것으로 알려졌다. 이 자택은 우리나라 돈으로 164억 원이다.


중국 언론은 세금과 벌금 납부 시한은 통보일로부터 15일 이내에 내야 하지만, 판빙빙은 거액의 돈이라 연말까지 납부시한을 연장받은 것으로 보인다고 전했다.



YTN PLUS 

(mobilepd@ytnplus.co.kr)


China orders actor Fan Bingbing to pay massive tax fine


'I let down the fans who love me,' actor posts in her 1st Weibo update since June

The Associated Press · Posted: Oct 03, 2018 9:15 AM ET | Last Updated: October 3


Fan Bingbing poses for photographers at the Cannes International Film Festival in 2017. 


According to Chinese media, tax authorities have ordered the Chinese actor to pay taxes and fines worth hundreds of millions of yuan, but would spare her from criminal prosecution. (Alastair Grant/Associated Press)


Chinese tax authorities have ordered X-Men actor Fan Bingbing and companies she represents to pay taxes and penalties totalling $130 million US, ending months of speculation over one of the country's highest-profile entertainers since she disappeared from public view three months ago.


Of the total amount, Fan is being personally fined around $70 million US for tax evasion, according to an announcement carried by China's official Xinhua News Agency Wednesday, citing tax authorities.


Fan would not be investigated for criminal responsibility for tax evasion as long as the taxes, fines and late fees amounting to nearly 900 million yuan (about $130 million US) were paid on time, the report said.


The announcement gave no indication as to Fan's whereabouts but indicated her agent was being held by police for allegedly obstructing the investigation.


Fan Bingbing is seen at the premiere of the film I Am Not Madame Bovary at the 2016 Toronto International Film Festival. (Fred Thornhill/Reuters)

Fan has starred in dozens of movies and TV series in China and is best known internationally for her role as Blink in 2014's X-Men: Days of Future Past, a cameo in the Chinese version of Iron Man 3, and star turns on the red carpet at Cannes as recently as May.


Before her disappearance, she had been booked to star with Penelope Cruz, Marion Cotillard, Lupita Nyong'o and Jessica Chastain in the Hollywood spy thriller 355. 


She also has a role in the upcoming Bruce Willis-Adrien Brody feature Air Strike.


 Top secret no more. Mission accepted! #355Movie #电影355 with @jes_chastain #MarionCotillard #PenelopeCruz @realBingbingFan @Lupita_Nyongo @Kinberg @FreckleFilms @filmnation #CannesYouHandleUs


7:09 AM - May 10, 2018

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Fan posted an apology on her official account on the social media site Weibo.com saying that she accepts the tax authorities' decision and would "try my best to overcome all difficulties and raise funds to pay back taxes and fines."


"I am unworthy of the trust of the society and let down the fans who love me," she wrote in her first update of her Weibo.com microblog since June 2.


A man surnamed Liang, who identified himself as a staff member of Fan's studio when reached by phone, refused to comment on the announcement or on Fan's location.


Her disappearance coincided with a crackdown by the authorities on high salaries for actors that can eat up much of the cost of a production. In June, regulators capped star pay at 40 per cent of a TV show's entire production budget and 70 per cent of the total paid to all the actors in a film.



The National

Movie star Fan Bingbing's disappearance raises questions

   WATCH  

00:00 02:34   



Fan Bingbing is China’s best-known actress and highest-paid celebrity for four years running, earning a reported $43 million last year. The 37-year-old is now making headlines around the world for having seemingly vanished. China’s biggest star has not been seen in public for more than two months, and her disappearance is raising questions about the Chinese justice system. 2:34

Fan evaded 7.3 million yuan in taxes by using a secret contract worth 20 million yuan that she signed for starring in the film Air Strike, the report said. She had instead paid taxes on a contract for only 10 million yuan, Xinhua said. The example described in the report referred to a reportedly common entertainment industry practice — an actor having a public contract stating an official salary and a private contract detailing actual, much higher pay.


A talk show host, Cui Yongyuan, had said in May that Fan had such an arrangement, which allegedly helps facilitate tax evasion, and revealed details that sparked a public outcry. Cui later apologized.



Comment +0


Nakjung Kim

July 17, 2012 at 7:50 PM · 

메모: 중국 단상: 90년대 초반 '중국은 사회주의라는 외투를 입고 있다'는 결론에 도달했다. 아편전쟁,리따짜오, 진독수 등 초기공산주의자들의 중국 과제 China Question, 마오와 친소유학파 레닌주의자들의 대립, 루쉰의 "납함""아Q정전" 등의 고민 밑에는 엄청난 숫자의 중국사람들 헐벗고 의.식.주가 불안정한 농민들, 미국 캐나다로 가서 백두산보다 더 높은 산들에 철도를 깔고 터널을 뚫어야 했던 중국인민들의 정치적 결정에 대해서 답하고자 했다.


흑묘백묘의 등소평의 등장, 89년 천안문 광장 유혈 충돌, 중공에서 중국으로 인식 전환. 무엇보다도 충격은 93-94년 Economist 특집기사에 단골주제가 중국의 경제성장과 자본주의적 시장체제의 방향,중국의 빈부격차(해안가 도시들과 내륙지역들), 그리고 공해와 환경에 대한 것이었다. 2000년에 이르면 중국 GDP는 독일 일본은 추월하고 미국에 이어 2위, 이후에는 추월 가능성을 예측했다.


2021년, 8년 후는 리따자오(이대련)이 중국 공산당을 창립한지 100년이 된다. 중국과제 China Question은 100년 전 (청의 봉건주의체제와 외세 영국 등 서구자본주의 제국주의세력에 대항한, 자유로운 독립적인 중국인민들의 삶)과 무엇이 어떻게 달라질 것인가?


리따자오는 만 39세의 나이로 국민당 우파와 장개석 등 군벌에 의해 체포 처형당했다. 5년간의 일본 와세다 대학의 유학을 마치고 중국에 온 리따자오는 실제로 마오의 '농민 주력군'노선에 강한 영향을 미쳤다. 소련 모스크바 유학파 사회주의자들의 중국 남부 광조우 반란 실패 노선과 다른 길을 가게 된 그 정신적 지주가 바로 리따자오였다.


역사에서 가정은 무의미하다고들 한다. 리따자오가 60세까지만이라도 살았더라면 우리는 다른 중국 사회주의의 모습을 보게되었을 것이다.


2012년 중국에 대한 단상: 중간 결론은, '중국은 자본주의라는 외투를 걸치고 있다'는 것이다. 리따자오 이후 100년, 중국과제 China Question는 누가 어떤 집단이 어떻게 던질 것인가?

Comment +0

민주당 프라이머리에서 조 크롤리 (Joe Crowley)를 물리친 알렉산드라 오카시오 코테즈가 슈테펀 콜베르트(Colbert)쇼에 나왔다.


민주적 사회주의 democratic socialism를 들고나온 알렉산드라 오카시오 코테즈가 말한 민주적 사회주의 핵심은,

1) 보편적 건강권이었다. 다시 말해서 버니 샌더스가 말한 전 미국인의 의료보험 가입권과 같은 아주 기초적인 권리를 보장하는 것이 민주적 사회주의라고 말했다. health care = human rights  건강 돌봄이야말로 인권이다. 

2) 부모의 재산 여부와 상관없이 교육, 대학교육을 받을 권리가 보장된 사회

3) 홈리스가 없는 사회, no one should be homeless. 의식주와 같은 기본 권리가 보장된 사회. 공공 정책 강조.


이 세가지를 오카시오 코테즈가 자신이 믿고 있는 민주적 사회주의의 핵심 주장이라고 말했다.


민주적 사회주의가 무엇인가라는 거창한 물음에 미국 현실을 고발하는 아주 구체적인 답변을오카시오 코테즈가 했다.


알렉산드라가 트럼프 트위터에 응수한 말은, 정치적 농담과 위트이다.

트럼프는 뉴욕 퀸즈 Queens 태생이고,

알렉스산드라 오카시오 코테즈는 뉴욕 브롱스 Bronx 출신이다.

"퀸즈 출신 트럼프가 브롱스에서 사는 여자(오카시오 코테즈)를 어떻게 응대해야 하는지를 (다룰지) 잘 모르는 것 같다."


아래 트럼프 발언에 대해서 알렉산드리아는 어떻게 답할 것인가라는 질문이었다.


트럼프가 민주당 조 크로울리 (Joe Crowley)가 알렉산드리아 오카시오 코테즈에게 패배하고 난 이후 트럼프가 날린 트위터이다. 

"야 트럼프 증오자 조 크로울리가 민주당 프라이머리에서 패배했다. 조 크로울리가 미 의회에서 낸시 펠로시가 맡고 있는 미 하원 소수 대표자 지위를 넘겨받을 줄 알았는데 말이야. 그가 그냥 탈락해버렸다. 아무도 예측하지 못했던 일이다. 대통령인 나를  좀 더 존중해주고 더 부드럽게 대해줬더라면 그런 일이 일어나지 않았을텐데. (* 그렇게  나를 욕하더니만 민주당 예선전에서 탈락했다는 아전인수격 트럼프 해석임)








 







Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: I don’t think Trump ‘knows how to deal with a girl from the Bronx’

  

New York Democratic congressional candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said late Thursday that she doesn’t think President Trump “knows how to deal with a girl” who is from the Bronx.

During an appearance on CBS’s “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” Ocasio-Cortez spoke about her win over Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.) in the 14th District’s Democratic primary. 

Colbert, however, asked Ocasio-Cortez about the president’s tweet regarding Crowley’s loss. 

“Well you know, the president is from Queens, and with all due respect — half of my district is from Queens — I don’t think he knows how to deal with a girl from the Bronx,” she told Colbert.


Ocasio-Cortez criticized Trump this week for his remarks about Crowley.

“It is unacceptable to be disrespectful of Congressman Crowley,” Ocasio-Cortez told CNN in an interview.


“He’s done some phenomenal, phenomenal work for the Bronx and Queens." 

The president on Tuesday called Crowley a "big Trump hater" following the upset in New York.


“Wow! Big Trump Hater Congressman Joe Crowley, who many expected was going to take Nancy Pelosi’s place, just LOST his primary election,” the president wrote on Twitter. 


“In other words, he’s out! That is a big one that nobody saw happening. Perhaps he should have been nicer, and more respectful, to his President!”


Ocasio-Cortez will face off against the Republican nominee for Congress in the November general election in a heavily blue New York City district.