3월 9일자 트럼프 발표문 배경. OPEC 전 후, 세계 원유 공급 역사에서 가장 충격적인 '공급 단절'의 시간이다. 트럼프가 80억 인구의 원성을 감당할 수 있는가? 11월 중간선거에서 공화당의 암운이 보일 뿐이다.

OPEC 전 후, 세계 원유 공급 역사에서 가장 충격적인 '공급 단절'의 시간이다. 트럼프가 80억 인구의 원성을 감당할 수 있는가? 11월 중간선거에서 공화당의 암운이 보일 뿐이다. 

트럼프 3월 9일 연설 소감. 방송을 들으면서, 횡설수설, 갈짓자 걸음이었다. 
1) 목표와 계획에 일관성이 없음. 오늘 트럼프가 이란과의 전쟁을 '엑스커션 excursion'라고 칭했는데, '기분 전환용 짧고 즐거운 여행'이라는 뜻이다. 지상군 투입까지 계획한 '전면전'이 아니라는 의미이지만, 80억 인구 골탕먹이는 '용어'다. 무슨 소풍인가? 

2월 28일에는 '에픽 퓨리 (엄청난 분노)'라고 했다가, 이제 주가하락에나 원유가격이 폭등하며 전세계민심이 나빠지니, '짧은 여행'으로 바꿨다. 횡설수설이다.

2) 트럼프가 '휴전' 과 '협상'을 내비쳤다.

이란이 걸프만 (쿠웨이트, UAE, 카타르, 사우디 ) 정유시설을 폭격하면, 미국은 다시 이란을 폭격할 것이라고 톤은 낮췄다.
이에 대해 이란은 즉각적으로, 전쟁은 우리가 끝낸다고 반격했다.

3) 트럼프의 목표치가 '핵물질 제거'인지, '탄도미사일의 제거'인지, 불불명하다. 

탄도미사일은 타 국가들에게도 '주권'의 한 요소일 뿐이고, 그것까지 제거한다는 것은, 이란 주권의 소멸을 뜻한다.오늘 발표도, 트럼프는

 ‘이란이 미국,이스라엘과 미국동맹국들을 공격하는데 사용되는 무기를 개발할 수 없게 만들겠다'고 말했다. 이것이 의미하는 무엇인가?  이 무기 (weaponry)’에 포함되는 것은 핵무기 뿐만 아니라, 탄도미사일이다.

미국이 외교에서 '획득할 ' 목표치를 정확하게 설정하지 않았음을 보여주는, 외교사의 '실수'이자 패착이다.

 

4)  국방부 장관과 트럼프의 발언의 불일치. 일관된 정부 방침이 보이지 않는다. 이것도 전술이라기 보다는, 갈짓자 행보이다.

 CBS 인터뷰에서 핏 헥세스 국방장관은, '이란을 폭격할 더 강력한 무기를 동원할 것이다. ‘500 파운드, 1000파운드, 2000 파운드 폭탄을 준비중이다’라고 발표함.

그런데 트럼프는 '전쟁을 곧 끝낼 것이다'라고 다급하게 발표함.

 

5)  미국 내 경제 지표 악화

미국 가솔린 가격 인상. 48센트 인상되어 3.48 달러가 됨.

실업 증가(2월 9만 2천개 실업발생) , 실업률 4.4%로 올라가. 2021년 12월 이후 최저치를 기록함.  경제활동참여율 62% (물가는 오르고, 고용은 악화되는 조짐 보임)

 

6) 세계 경제에 미치는 악영향

유가 상승, 원유  공급 충격,

이번 이란-미국(이스라엘) 전쟁의 파괴력은 더 크다.

미국,브라질,노르웨이의 석유와 가스 생산력은 한계가 있다. 호르무즈 해협 석유봉쇄는 공급 절대적 감소.

걸프 국가들 파이프 라인으로 석유 수송하지만, 한계 있음.

걸프 국가들 석유 생산 자체 감소 (전쟁으로 원유저장고 파괴 위험, 수출 못해 생산 줄여)

이라크 석유 생산량이 60% 감소.

 

Hunter Kornfeind , 훈터 콘페인드, 원유 수출 역사에서 가장 큰 공급 단절.

 

 

Mixed messages from Trump leave more questions than answers over war's end

 

Anthony Zurcher

North America correspondent

 

 

1:04

Watch: Trump says Iran war will be over "very soon", but not this week

President Donald Trump and his administration have so far offered mixed messages and contradictory explanations on the joint US-Israeli military campaign against Iran. And Monday - the 10th day of an operation that has rattled allies and shaken markets - typified this confusion around the war's timeline and ultimate goals.

 

After a tumultuous morning during which US stock market indexes dropped and oil prices surged, the American president began speed-dialing reporters in an apparent effort to soothe nerves. His comments, however, were lacking in clarity even when he was pushed for more detail.

 

"I have a plan for everything, okay?" he told a reporter from the New York Post when asked about spiking oil prices. "I have a plan for everything. You'll be very happy."

 

To CBS News, he said the war "is very complete, pretty much".

 

"We're very far ahead of schedule," he added. When asked whether the operation could therefore end soon, Trump said: "I don't know, it depends. Wrapping up is all in my mind, nobody else's."

 

His telephone spree, at least in an economic sense, had the desired effect. Stock markets rallied, and the price of a barrel of oil – which had reached $120 earlier in the day - dropped below $90.

 

Just days ago, Trump said that he would not stop the war until Iran's "unconditional surrender". But after his comments on Monday, it appeared as though an end to a military operation that has roiled the Middle East and led to the near complete shutdown of shipping traffic through the Straits of Hormuz could be in sight.

 

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By evening, however, Trump was walking back those comments.

 

"We could call it a tremendous success right now," he said. "Or we could go further. And we're going to go further."

 

He said the US was "very close to finishing" what he called an "excursion", but warned that the US would intensify its strikes if Iran continued to threaten oil tankers exiting the Persian Gulf.

 

"We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to recover that section of the world," he said.

 

Trump also laid out an expansive mission for the war. His goal, he said, was to ensure that Iran could not develop weaponry to target the US, Israel or any American allies "for a very long time".

 

That ultimately might require the kind of regime change that Trump has been unable to secure so far, as the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been replaced as leader by his son.

 

Within a space of hours, the messaging from the president had been dizzying. Those looking for signs of when this massive military operation could end or clues as to its concrete goals were left with more questions than answers.

 

In a CBS interview on Sunday, defence secretary Pete Hegseth outlined a next phase of the US-Israeli operation that included using more powerful ordnance. "The ability for us to be up over the top and hunting with more conventional munitions, gravity bombs, 500-pound, 1,000-pound, 2,000-pound bombs on military targets," he said, "we haven't even really begun to start that effort of the campaign."

 

When Trump was asked on Monday about the apparent contradiction between his statements that the war was "very complete" and Hegseth's comments, he replied: "I think you could say both".

 

"It's the beginning of building a new country," he said.

 

 

 

0:59

Watch: How worried are Americans about rising petrol prices from the Iran war?

Iraq-style nation-building, however, is an activity that Trump and his aides have explicitly said they do not want to undertake.

 

On Tuesday, US investors will pass judgement on Trump's latest comments. But even if the wild market swings we have seen begin to stabilise, the surge in petrol prices will likely take longer to calm.

 

In the US, the average price of a gallon of gasoline is now $3.48, up 48 cents from a week ago.

 

This comes as there are indications the economy is already struggling. Last Friday, for example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the US had lost 92,000 jobs in February, unemployment ticked up to 4.4% and the labour force participation rate, at 62%, was the lowest since December 2021.

 

"Affordability" and cost of living concerns regularly rank as the top issue for Americans – and these same polls suggest there is sizeable opposition to the ongoing Iran military campaign. That is a dangerous mix for a president who is inextricably linked to this operation and months away from vital midterm elections in November that will decide control of Congress.

 

Trump has promised that higher prices are temporary, and that by the time Americans head to the polls in November they will be more positive about the cost of living.

 

In northern Georgia, however, voters are casting ballots in a special congressional election on Tuesday. There, the Iran war – and the danger it presents to the economy – are pressing concerns.

 

Bob Stinnett, an independent voter, said he worried that the spike in energy prices could cause a recession. "I have supported Trump, but not for this," he said.

 

Angie, who recently retired after a long career as a nurse, said she was worried rising gas prices could eat into her budget at a precarious time in her finances.

 

When asked how she felt about the Iran war, and the impact it would have on her gas prices, she said she cares more about the people of Iran. But, she said, the US should not have gotten involved.

 

"I honestly don't like it at all," she said. "I understand they needed help, but couldn't we have found another way to do this?"

 

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The north-western Georgia district, recently held by right-wing firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene, is solidly conservative. But even there, voters are uneasy, which presents rife opportunity for Democratic candidate Shawn Harris.

 

"Because gas prices are going up, everything's going through the roof, and it's not because of something else, it's something that we chose to get into," said the farmer and retired brigadier general.

 

"I think I'm going to pick up more voters simply because we're into a war," he said. "And oh by the way, those voters got sons and daughters in the war."

 

The president has repeatedly pledged to bring down prices, and he and his team have signalled an awareness of the importance of the issue. Late last year, he launched a so-called "affordability tour" in Pennsylvania but it has failed to get going in earnest.

 

With military operations in Venezuela and Iran dominating the headlines in the months since, Trump risks being seen as a president more focused on legacy-defining foreign interventions than on domestic food prices. The White House, of course, would argue he is able to juggle both.

 

But with rising petrol prices spurred by a military campaign that polls suggest few Americans really wanted, there is real political risk for Trump.

 

On Monday evening, he spoke about the "tremendous success" the US military has achieved in its campaign so far. He ticked through how Iran's navy has been sunk, its air force destroyed, and its radar and anti-aircraft equipment disabled.

 

War, however, is more than missiles launched, bombs dropped and targets destroyed.

 

The price of this war – measured in damage to the global and US economy, and in political costs to Trump and his fellow Republicans – is still coming into view.

 

And in a year that may well define Trump's second term, the American public has yet to render its final judgement.

 

With additional reporting from Kayla Epstein in Georgia

 

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